Pac-10 Fearless Predictions, Oct. 4

Previews and Predictions for the Week 6 Pac-10 Games

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20
- Sept. 27

- Pac 10 Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Oct. 4, Part 2

How are the picks so far? SU: 25-10 ... ATS: 18-14

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Oregon (4-1) at USC (2-1), 8:00 EST, ABC
Why to watch: While unanticipated losses by both schools in the last two weeks have taken some of the luster off this game, it’ll still have major implications in the Pac-10 race. In case you missed it, USC was upended by Oregon State last Thursday in a game that sent shockwaves throughout the sport and the rankings. For the second straight year, the Trojans will spend the last two months of the season clinging to its hold on the conference crown, while trying to climb back into national contention. If they happen to go 0-for-Oregon, both quests could be shattered. The Ducks regrouped nicely from their loss to Boise State two weeks ago, smashing Washington State, 63-14. They’ve been getting by with band aids all over the quarterback position, using four since presumed starter Nate Costa was lost before the season started.
Why Oregon might win: The Beavers provided a blueprint on how to solve the USC defense—run right at it. The Trojans have too much speed to be beaten to the edge, so Oregon State played smash-mouth, controlling time of possession and getting 186 yards from Jacquizz Rodgers. The Duck running game is even better. Oregon has two outstanding backs, LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson, a physical line, and the nation’s fourth-ranked ground game. Plus, it might not have to contend with LB Rey Maualuga, who’s nursing a sprained knee.
Why USC might win: For all of the returning talent on that Oregon defense, the unit has underachieved over the first half of the season. Purdue ripped it for 201 yards on the ground. Boise State shredded it for 386 yards and three touchdowns through the air. The Trojans have the speed and depth at the skill positions to damage the Ducks in a multitude of ways. Regardless of what happened in Corvallis, Mark Sanchez is still a next-level quarterback and RB Joe McKnight can still change the momentum of a game like a bolt of lightning. At home and coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV, USC will play with a level of passion reminiscent of the Ohio State game.
Who to watch: Some of the fallout from USC’s loss included the demotions of defensive linemen Everson Griffen and Averell Spicer to the second team. Griffen has just one sack all year, and has been ineffective in run defense. The only time Spicer distinguished himself was when he was flagged for an ill-timed personal foul. Stepping into the lineup for the pair will be veteran Clay Mathews and rookie Jurrell Casey, respectively. Both are being counted on to be more physical at the point of attack than their predecessors.
What will happen: As good as USC looked in wins over Virginia and Ohio State, it can’t just show up and expect to win. That’s especially true against Oregon, the next best thing in the Pac-10 when it’s not being besieged by quarterback injuries. The Ducks will get enough from their running game to go toe-to-toe with the Trojans beyond halftime. The gap between Sanchez and Oregon starter Jeremiah Masoli, however, will really become apparent in the waning moments. Sanchez will come up big when it matters, connecting with Damian Williams in fourth quarter to put the game out of reach.
CFN Prediction: USC 38 … Oregon 20... Line: USC -16.5
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 4 
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Thursday, October 2

Oregon State (2-2) at Utah (5-0), 9:00 EST
Why to watch: After sufficiently shocking the world with last Thursday’s upset of top-rated USC, Oregon State will set out to prove that the outcome was no fluke. A trip to Salt Lake City gives the Beavers that opportunity. Mike Riley’s teams in Corvallis have often needed a runway at the beginning of the season, and last week’s stunner just might have been the launching point. If nothing else, Oregon State has given birth to the Pac-10’s newest star, true freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Utah couldn’t have been happier by last week’s results. All of a sudden, beating the Beavers qualifies as a quality win as the Utes work to beef up their BCS-busting resume. Now up to No. 15 in the latest AP poll, they tuned up for Oregon State by beating Weber State, 37-21, in a game that was more one-sided than the score indicated.
Why Oregon State might win: The emergence of Rodgers over the last three games has helped give a facelift to the Beaver offense. He’s slippery, stronger than he appears, and able to get lost among the linemen. When he’s running well, it makes life so much easier for QB Lyle Moevao, who’s thrown five touchdowns without a pick over the last two weeks. As good as the Utah defense has been, it’s allowed eight touchdown passes this season and has yet to face an offense as diverse as the one from Oregon State.
Why Utah might win: Oregon State is at its best when it’s balanced, but that won’t be possible against this Ute D. Utah has been a brick wall in run defense, allowing just 60 yards a game and two yards a carry. The front seven, bolstered by DE Paul Kruger, DT Greg Newman, and LB Stevenson Sylvester, has become an immovable object that’ll shut off Rodgers’ running lanes. Moevao won’t be as effective on third-and-long, especially if top receiver Sammie Stroughter remains hobbled by a nagging hip pointer. On offense, the Utes have yet to be held below 25 points, getting production from QB Brian Johnson and backs Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack.
Who to watch: When Oregon State LT Andy Levitre goes up against Kruger, it’ll be a battle worth keeping an eye on. Both have NFL potential, although Kruger will have to wait at least one more year before playing on Sundays. Just a sophomore, he’s been tearing through opposing tackles all year, already racking up 11.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.
What will happen: Somewhere in between the lopsided loss to Penn State and the defeat of USC is where Oregon State currently resides. That’s good enough to hang with Utah, but not to pull out a second straight upset of a ranked team. The Utes will ride their offensive balance, while preventing Rodgers from taking over the game the way he did a week ago.
CFN Prediction: Utah 31 … Oregon State 23 ... Line: Utah -11.5
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 3.5 
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Saturday, October 4

Stanford (3-2) at Notre Dame (3-1), 2:30 EST, NBC
Why to watch: With Notre Dame and Stanford playing well beyond forecasts, this weekend’s game in South Bend shapes up as a pivotal one with bowl implications for both schools. The Irish went to 2-1 against the Big Ten, spanking Purdue, 38-21, for its best offensive output of the season. With the line playing well and the running game making contributions, the program has made a quantum leap from last year’s prolonged nightmare. With a manageable schedule up ahead, Notre Dame can realistically start shooting toward an eight-win season. The Cardinal has erased a two-game losing streak with back-to-back wins over San Jose State and Washington. Like the Irish, last week’s win in Seattle was fueled by a rare show of support from both the passing attack and the running game. Now 2-1 in the Pac-10, Stanford is inching closer to a bowl berth, which looked like a long-term project when Jim Harbaugh was hired last year.
Why Stanford might win: The Cardinal defense is going to test that Irish offensive line as much as anyone else has this season. Stanford will bring so much pressure from DE Pannel Egboh and LB Pat Maynor, Jimmy Clausen is going to think it’s still 2007. Offensively, QB Tavita Pritchard is coming off one of his best games with the program, and Anthony Kimble and Jeremy Stewart filled in swimmingly after Toby Gerhart suffered a mild concussion. The Irish haven’t had a sack since the opener with San Diego State, meaning Pritchard will get the time needed to find his receivers.
Why Notre Dame might win: Clausen is growing up before our eyes, already tossing more touchdown passes than all of last year. Sure, he’ll take a lot of licks Saturday afternoon, but he’ll also hang in the pocket long enough to connect with his young and improving corps of receivers. The cost for all of the heat that the Cardinal brings is a pass defense that ranks 105^th in the country and is too often left naked. Stanford will struggle to contain receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, a pair of underclassmen with enormous upside.
Who to watch: The Irish are cautiously optimistic that Armando Allen’s 134-yard effort against Purdue was a sign of things to come. It was a career-day for the sophomore, who’s been hot-and-cold since last season. If he and Robert Hughes can continue giving the program a presence on the ground, the entire offense is going to benefit.
What will happen: Although Notre Dame is nowhere near where Charlie Weis wants it to be, it is clearly gaining confidence and moving in the right direction. The Irish will get to 4-1 behind another solid day from Clausen and support from the revitalized running game. A perfect 3-0 in South Bend, it’ll be another sign that the program is recapturing the home field advantage that was lost a year ago.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 30 … Stanford 21... Line: Notre Dame -7
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 2.5 
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- Pac 10 Week 6 Fearless Predictions, Oct. 4, Part 2