Pac-10 Fearless Predictions, Oct. 25

Previews and Predictions for the Week 9 Pac-10 Games

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20
- Sept. 27 | Oct. 4 | Oct. 11 | Oct. 18

How are the picks so far? SU: 36-13 ... ATS: 26-19-1

Pac 10 Game of the Week

USC (5-1) at Arizona (5-2), 10:15 EST
Why to watch: If Mike Stoops was ever going to get Arizona on the national map and earn himself a contract extension, this is the place to do it. Fresh off a rousing come-from-behind win over Cal, the last unbeaten team in Pac-10 play, the Wildcats have USC in their crosshairs. With an upset of the torch-bearing Trojans, Arizona would vault into the Top 25 and turn the race for the Rose Bowl upside down. USC is not only the team to beat in the Pac-10, but it’s recovered from last month’s loss to Oregon State to debut at No. 5 in the BCS standings. If the Trojans can stay the course and avoid another trap, they have as good a shot as any one-loss team to play for a national championship. The Arizona offense versus the USC defense is one of the great match ups of the entire weekend.
Why USC might win: The Wildcats are vulnerable on the interior of the defense, something the Trojans will try to exploit. Joe McKnight isn’t likely to play, but USC is never at a shortage for quality backs. Stafon Johnson, C.J. Gable, and Broderick Green, who all went for 100 yards last week, are capable of pounding away at the Arizona front seven. Outside of the loss to Oregon State, the Trojans have held their other five opponents to just 20 points and have allowed a touchdown pass in just one game. The ‘Cats can score, but they’re going to earn every point against the likes of Rey Maualuga, Taylor Mays, and Brian Cushing.
Why Arizona might win: Remember what Jacquizz Rodgers did against the Trojans in Corvallis last month? The Wildcats have their own version of Quiz, true freshman scatback Keola Antolin, who exploded last week for 149 yards and three touchdowns on 21 carries after replacing starter Nic Grigsby. His darting ability along with Willie Tuitama and the passing game give Arizona a high-powered, balanced offense that’s going to cause fits for USC. Don’t assume Mark Sanchez will have a free pass Saturday night because the ‘Cats have a bunch of new starters in the secondary. Nate Ness, Cam Nelson, and Devin Ross have helped solidify a pass defense that ranks No. 6 in the country.
Who to watch: If Arizona is going to pull the upset it has to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, much the way the Beavers did in their shocker last month. T Eben Britton is the headliner of the offensive line, but he’ll need plenty of help from Mike Diaz, Colin Baxter, Joe Longacre, and Adam Grant to keep Tuitama on his feet. Oregon State proved that the USC defense is not an immovable object. Now, all the ‘Cats have to do is reprise that performance in the biggest game of their careers.
What will happen: Having already been burned once this year, USC will avoid a second upset of the season...barely. Arizona will be in this one for the duration, but still lacks the big-game experience to close out elite opponents. The Trojans will wear out the Wildcats on both sides of the ball with a physical style that they haven’t seen in Tucson all year. With a chance to take on more of a feature role, Johnson will be USC’s offensive star, running for 100 yards in back-to-back games for the first time in his career.
CFN Prediction: USC 33 … Arizona 27 … Line: USC -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 3.5
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Saturday, October 25

UCLA (3-4) at California (4-2), 3:30 EST, ABC
Why to watch: Cal’s stay as the last unbeaten team in Pac-10 play didn’t last very long. The Bears failed to protect a 24-14 halftime lead, getting torched for four touchdowns by Arizona in a forgettable third quarter. They better not get caught sulking this week because November begins with games versus Oregon, USC, and Oregon State. Jeff Tedford’s inability to settle on either Nate Longshore or Kevin Riley has become a weekly distraction that’s doing no favors to the rest of the team. Kudos to UCLA, which continues to battle through a difficult season. The Bruins notched an emotional win over Stanford in the waning seconds to move just a game under .500. A second straight win over a team from Northern California would make bowling a realistic goal.
Why UCLA might win: The reliable Cal defense sprung a few leaks that the Bruins will try to poke at for four quarters. The Bears had trouble containing QB Willie Tuitama and RB Keola Antolin, who helped spur a 42-point outburst. While UCLA doesn’t have a Tuitama or Antolin on the roster, it does have Kevin Craft, who’s improving under center, and north-south runners Kahlil Bell and Derrick Coleman. On defense, the Bruins remain solid up the middle with tackles Brian Price and Brigham Harwell, and will capitalize on Cal’s flip-flopping at quarterback.
Why Cal might win: Assuming his sore elbow doesn’t cause problems, the return of RB Jahvid Best makes the Bears so much more dangerous on offense. In his first game back last week, he accounted for 140 yards on just 20 touchdowns, including a pretty 67-yard scamper. UCLA may be tough up the middle, but it has problems containing speed out on the perimeter. Although the Cal D had a rough weekend in Tucson, the Bruins don’t have the players to replicate those results. The Bears lead the Pac-10 in turnover margin, and will turn loose linebackers Zack Follett, Worrell Williams, and Anthony Felder on a plodding UCLA offense that ranks 103^rd in the country.
Who to watch: Whether it’s Longshore or Riley calling the signals, both Cal quarterbacks have really gotten comfortable with TE Cameron Morrah around the end zone. A tall, athletic former blue-chip recruit, he’s begun to grow into the position after arriving as a defensive player. Morrah has caught a touchdown pass in each of the last four games, providing a lift to a receiving corps that’s underachieved throughout the season.
What will happen: It’s back to the script for both Cal and UCLA. The Bruins just don’t have enough on offense these days to compete with a quality program like the Bears, which have played their best football in Strawberry Canyon. Cal will silence the UCLA offense, picking off a couple of Craft’s passes, and get at least one burst into the open field from Best or his backup Shane Vereen.
CFN Prediction: California 38 … UCLA 16 … Line: California -17.5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 2.5
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Notre Dame (4-2) at Washington (0-6), 8:00 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: As Washington continues to freefall without a victory, a visit from Tyrone Willingham’s former employer, Notre Dame, won’t provide any special motivation. The beleaguered head coach simply wants to win a football game. After being routed by Oregon State in Washington, the Huskies are one of just two winless FBS, leaving little to strive for in the second half of the season. The Apple Cup with an even worse Washington State team can’t come soon enough. Even after a tough loss to North Carolina, the Irish come out of its break feeling optimistic about the balance of the schedule. The young squad is growing all the time with Jimmy Clausen at the controls, but needs to play better away from South Bend beginning with this week’s trip to Seattle.
Why Notre Dame might win: Clausen’s development won’t suffer a detour against the nation’s worst pass efficiency defense. Week-in and week-out, the Washington secondary has been nuked, allowing 18 touchdown passes, while picking off just two passes. Husky pass rushers have been shut out in all but one game, meaning Clausen will have all day to connect with an improving corps of receivers headed by Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. The Irish needn’t worry about getting dragged into a track meet. The U-Dub offense has been almost as ineffective as the defense, ranking ninth in the Pac-10 in scoring and clearly missing injured QB Jake Locker.
Why Washington might win: While it’s debatable whether the Huskies will be able to capitalize, it’s not like the Notre Dame defense has been a fortress this fall. The Irish have a mediocre run defense and with the exception of the Stanford game, just don’t get to the quarterback. Washington has a physical, veteran line capable of creating holes for rookie Terrance Dailey and giving QB Ronnie Fouch time to make his reads. Notre Dame isn’t going to shut anyone down, so there’s hope that the Huskies can keep pace in a high-scoring game.
Who to watch: Floyd has deservedly garnered a bunch of attention in his first season, but he’s not the only rookie receiver forging a bond with Clausen. True freshman TE Kyle Rudolph has emerged as well, catching 13 passes and a pair of touchdowns over the last four games. At a school with a long tradition of great tight ends, Rudolph has flashed the hands and big-play ability to be next in line.
What will happen: Washington has six games left on the schedule, but for all intents and purposes, its 2008 season is over. At least that’s the way the team has played the last few weekends. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is building toward a strong finish and a decent bowl berth. The different mindsets will be obvious at Husky Stadium, as the Irish streak past Washington behind another strong showing from Clausen and the offense.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 35 … Washington 17 … Line: Notre Dame -11
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 2.5
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Oregon (5-2) at Arizona State (2-4), 10:00 EST
Why to watch: Before the season kicked off, this was pegged as a pivotal game in the Pac-10 race. Neither program has met expectations, however, drastically lowering the significance of this match up. Arizona State is challenging Clemson’s hold on the most disappointing team of 2008. Ranked and loaded with confidence in August, the Sun Devils have lost four straight and are in danger of not even qualifying for a bowl berth. Last week’s bye couldn’t come at a better time, allowing the team to get a fresh start and injured QB Rudy Carpenter to rest his bum ankle. Oregon has done a much better job of navigating choppy waters and injuries of its own to remain in the Rose Bowl mix. The Ducks have already lost to USC, which means they’ll probably need to win out and get some help to finish the year in Pasadena. Now that former starter Justin Roper is back from injury, Mike Bellotti is holding an open competition at quarterback that includes Jeremiah Masoli.
Why Oregon might win: The Arizona State offense disappeared weeks ago, and will have a hard time keeping pace with the Ducks. The Sun Devils have averaged just 11 points over the last four games, a degree of futility that’ll get worse if Carpenter sits and Danny Sullivan plays. Whoever plays will face a fast defense and a ferocious pass rush that’s fifth nationally in sacks and led by ends Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu. Oregon will control the game on the ground, pounding away at a soft Arizona State interior with backs LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson, one of the best one-two punches in America.
Why Arizona State might win: Considering all of the returning talent in the Oregon secondary, you’d think it would be a whole lot tougher to beat. Instead, the Ducks have the nation’s 110^th-ranked pass defense, which creates an opportunity for the Sun Devil quarterbacks. In Oregon’s two losses to Boise State and USC, it was bombed for 829 yards and seven touchdown passes. Either Carpenter or Sullivan must approach that kind of productivity, getting Michael Jones, Kerry Taylor, and all of the talented receivers involved in the offense.
Who to watch: Oregon corners Walter Thurmond and Jairus Byrd are a couple of outstanding athletes with 23 career picks between them, but this season, they’re allowing too many big plays. The Ducks have allowed 12 touchdown passes over the last six games, despite getting ample support up front. If the juniors don’t start locking down some of the league’s better receivers, the offense will get dragged into plenty of shootouts.
What will happen: If Arizona State was a good team that just happened to be playing poorly, it might be able to flip a switch and go on a run. That’s just not the case. The Sun Devils have holes on both sides of the ball that Oregon will expose. The Ducks will roll behind the running of Blount and Johnson, who’ll wear out the ASU defense.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 31 … Arizona State 23 … Line: Oregon -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 3
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