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Ole Miss (3-4) at Arkansas (3-4),
7:00 EST GamePlan
Why to watch: Normally a
head coach facing his former
team, especially when he’s just
a few months removed from being
in charge at the old place, he
has a distinct advantage. That’s
not quite the case this week as
Ole Miss head man Houston Nutt
probably won’t recognize his old
Arkansas team. Gone are Darren
McFadden and Felix Jones, along
with the devastating running
game, at least the way it was
run under the Nutt regime, and
in is the Bobby Petrino-led
attack that relies more on the
pass than it ever did under
Nutt. However, the overall
improvement in play for Arkansas
has come with the emergence of
RB Michael Smith, as he has led
the way to a win over Auburn and
a heartbreaking loss last week
at Kentucky. Each of these teams
are in rebuilding mode, but the
winner will have the inside
track to a bowl game while the
loser will have a nightmare of a
time trying to come up with the
three wins needed to become
eligible.
Why Ole Miss might win:
Smith isn’t 100%. The new Hog
star who has rushed for 791
yards and five touchdowns on the
year, and ripped off 176 yards
against Auburn and 192 against
Kentucky, suffered a concussion
and will be limited if he’s able
to play. The Ole Miss defensive
front might be having a few
injury problems, but it’s more
than good enough to get to Casey
Dick on a regular basis if Smith
isn’t pulling off the same magic
he did over the last three
weeks. Ole Miss beat Florida and
last week pushed Alabama to the
wall. Arkansas wasn’t even close
against Alabama or Texas getting
blown out by both by a total
score of 101 to 24.
Why Arkansas might win:
The defense has stepped up
against the run in a big way
over the last few weeks. After
getting ripped up for over 800
rushing yards over a three game
span, the Hogs rebounded to hold
Auburn to 56 yards and Kentucky
to 88. The defensive front has
become more aggressive, and the
linebacking corps that was so
young and so inexperienced to
start the season is starting to
grow up. The overall tackling
has been better, too.
Who to watch: Casey Dick
has had to carry more of the
workload this year, but his
burdened has been lightened by
the emergence of Smith. However,
that didn’t matter much last
week as Dick completed just
11-of-29 passes for 94 yards and
a touchdown in the loss to
Kentucky as he struggled to
handle the steady Wildcat pass
rush. The big problem has been
interceptions with five over the
last three games and eight over
the last five. He has to be
stingy this week, and he can’t
buckle under the pressure from
the Ole Miss defensive front.
What will happen: The Ole
Miss lines will be better than
the Arkansas lines, while Smith
won’t be able to be the
workhorse he’s been over the
last few weeks.
CFN Prediction: Ole Miss
26 … Arkansas 20 … Line:
Ole Miss -4.5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL
with Palin – 1 Jose
Canseco: Last Shot) … 2.5
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Middle Tennessee (2-5) at
Mississippi State (2-5),
7:00 EST ESPNU
Why to watch: Middle
Tennessee is good at being
really, really annoying. It beat
Maryland in an upset that looks
far more stunning now than it
did in early September, and it
came within a shoestring tackle
of beating Kentucky on a Hail
Mary. Over the years, the Blue
Raiders have been able to rise
up and pull off the occasional
upset, but this year, it’s
having a hard time dealing with
their own conference going 1-3
in Sun Belt play while losing
four of their last five games.
Mississippi State needs to start
winning and winning quickly to
be in the hunt for a bowl game.
There are winnable games against
Kentucky, Arkansas and Ole Miss
to potentially help the cause,
but there’s also a road trip to
Alabama. This is supposed to be
an easy week, but for an offense
that’s having a nightmare of a
time scoring, this could be
closer than Bulldog fans might
like.
Why Middle Tennessee might
win: Mississippi State’s
offense just isn’t working. Take
away the 34 points over SE
Louisiana, an FCS team, and the
Bulldog attack is averaging just
11 points per game scoring seven
points or fewer in three of the
last five games. Turnovers are a
problem, but more than anything
else, there’s nothing the attack
can rely on. The offensive line
is struggling, while the Middle
Tennessee defensive front is
just good enough to get into the
backfield on a regular basis.
Why Mississippi State might
win: It’s not like Middle
Tennessee’s offense is lighting
up the scoreboard like a
Christmas tree. The Blue Raiders
have been steady, but not
explosive, averaging a mere 18
points per game. The running
game is non-existent, averaging
just 87 yards per outing, while
relying just on the passing
game. That plays right into
MSU’s strength, the pass
defense. The Bulldog secondary
is doing what it can, allowing a
mere 138 yards per game.
Who to watch: MSU is
going to fight through the
growing pains of QB Tyson Lee.
He wasn’t great over the course
of the season, but he hadn’t
thrown an interception and
hadn’t rushed for a score. And
then came the Tennessee game
when everything fell apart. Lee
threw three interceptions,
suffered a knee injury, and
generally couldn’t handle the
Vol defense. He’ll play with a
brace and will try to gut it out
this week.
What will happen: First
one to score wins? It’ll be a
low-scoring, close battle with
Mississippi State’s defense
shutting down the Middle
Tennessee offense cold.
CFN Prediction:
Mississippi State 20 … Middle
Tennessee 14 … Line:
Mississippi State -11.5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL
with Palin – 1 Jose
Canseco: Last Shot) … 2
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Alabama (7-0) at Tennessee (3-4),
7:45 EST ESPN
Why to watch: Alabama –
Auburn is the SEC’s nastiest
rivalry, Florida – Georgia might
be the most spirited (it is,
after all, a cocktail party),
and Florida – Tennessee, LSU –
Auburn, and several others have
their charm. However, Alabama –
Tennessee has an old school
battle feel. The fan bases don’t
like each other, and while this
might not be a captivating
rivalry on a national scale, in
the SEC world, this is just
about as big as it gets. It’s
made even bigger this year by
the polar opposite fortunes for
each big name program. Alabama
is the hot story of the SEC
season, currently ranking second
in the BCS and with its destiny
in its own hands. However, it
was shaky in wins over Kentucky
and Ole Miss, needing to hold on
in each game. After getting
outscored 30-10 in the second
half against Georgia, the Tide
needs to prove it can put
together a full four quarters.
On the flip side, Tennessee’s
34-3 win over Mississippi State
glossed over a floundering
season with little offense and
tough losses to UCLA, Auburn and
Georgia. The defense has been
tremendous and the special teams
have been decent. If it all
comes together and the Vols pull
off the upset, that might not
only get head coach Phil Fulmer
off the hot seat, but it would
change the season around
nationally, in the SEC, and for
Tennessee.
Why Alabama might win:
Don’t let the 34-3 win over
Mississippi State win last week
fool you; Tennessee got two
interception returns for
touchdowns. The offense wasn’t
anything special and it isn’t
going to suddenly find itself
this week against a Tide defense
that isn’t giving up a thing
against the run and isn’t awful
against the pass. Tennessee
doesn’t have the attack that can
put up big numbers in bunches,
so if the Tide can get a few
early points, it shouldn’t have
a problem going through the
motions and hanging on. The Vols
don’t have the ability to pull
off a fourth quarter comeback.
Why Tennessee might win:
The Alabama offensive like is
starting to show some chinks in
the armor. Kentucky’s defensive
front was able to force several
mistakes, while the Ole Miss
front four controlled most of
the second half last week and
held the Tide to 107 yards. The
Alabama offense needs to get the
running game going, and it has
to hit on the big pass play.
Even with all the Vols’
problems, the Tennessee run
defense has been fantastic
allowing just 96 yards per game
while it’s generating enough
pressure to rush QB John Parker
Wilson.
Who to watch: This will
be a tremendous showcase for
great safety play. The Tennessee
combination of Eric Berry and
Demetrice Morley is being
considered among the best in
team history. Each had a pick
six last week against
Mississippi State, and each can
hit. Berry has been the better
of the two, leading the nation
with five interceptions to go
along with 44 tackles, while
Morley is a big-time playmaker.
For Alabama, Rashad Johnson
isn’t having the season he had
last year, but he’s been a
steady star. He’s currently
second on the team with 39
tackles with an interception. He
should be all over the field
this week.
What will happen:
Tennessee will show some fight.
The defense will help pave the
way for a few scores by giving
the offense a short field to
work with, but the Tide will
come through with a strong
second half for the first time
in a long time to escape with a
nasty, tough win.
CFN Prediction: Alabama
23 … Tennessee 14 … Line:
Alabama -6
Must See Rating: (5 SNL
with Palin – 1 Jose
Canseco: Last Shot) … 4
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SEC Fearless Predictions, Week
9, Oct. 25, Part 1 |