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Mississippi State (3-6) at
Alabama (10-0),
7:45 EST ESPN
Why to watch: Before
1996, Alabama had beaten
Mississippi State 37 times in 38
games, but over the last 12
years, it’s been a dead-even 6-6
series with the Bulldogs winning
the last two. The one blip on
the slate before ’96 came in
1980 when the Tide was 7-0
before losing in a 6-3 slugfest.
That was a better MSU team than
this one, but it’s still decent
enough to pull off the upset if
the defense is on. With winnable
games against Arkansas and Ole
Miss to close, if MSU wins this
week, it’ll have a shot at going
bowling. That’s a huge “if”
considering the offense has been
abysmal, and considering how
good Alabama is. The Tide just
has to hold serve over the next
three games to play for the
national title. Style points
don’t matter; all Bama has to do
is win this week, get past
Auburn in two weeks, and beat
Florida. After surviving LSU in
overtime last week, was that the
last big test before facing the
Gators? The Bulldogs will try to
provide another big push.
Why Mississippi State might
win: The defense really is
good. Alabama lives on the
running game but it puts games
away through the air. This isn’t
a high-octane air attack, but it
comes through when it has to.
MSU has to make sure Bama
doesn’t get the passing game
going. With the nation’s second
best pass defense, the Bulldogs
have been able to keep most
games from getting out of hand.
Granted, the secondary hasn’t
faced a who’s who of
quarterbacks, the SEC West isn’t
the Big 12 South, but the D is
just good enough to make this
interesting if Bama isn’t sharp.
Why Alabama might win:
MSU just doesn’t score. It has
had its moments against Middle
Tennessee and even LSU, but for
the most part, when the opposing
defense is focused, the Bulldogs
don’t produce. Alabama’s
defensive front isn’t going to
allow the MSU running game to do
much of anything up the middle,
and the secondary is keeping the
big plays under wraps. Good
passing teams can dink and dunk
a bit on the Tide, but
Mississippi State isn’t a good
passing team. The Tide pass rush
should be keeping the pressure
on all game long against the
mediocre O line.
Who to watch: Alabama
safety Rashad Johnson has taken
his game to another level. An
all-star last year, he’s the
leader and star on a defense
that has several leaders and
stars, with 62 tackles, most of
them solo, and five
interceptions over the last four
games including three last week
against LSU. While he’s a good
hitter, that’s not his game.
He’s mostly about being always
around the ball and always
making big plays when needed.
Against MSU, he has to come up
big against the run.
What will happen: Alabama
might not be fully-focused with
LSU in the rearview mirror and
Auburn up next, but it’ll get
the job done at home with a
solid defensive performance and
just enough offense to get by.
MSU isn’t going to get enough
offense to help out the D.
CFN Prediction: Alabama
27 … Mississippi State 10 ...
Line: Alabama -19.5
Must See Rating: (5
Quantum Of Solace – 1
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) …
3
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Vanderbilt (5-4) at Kentucky
(6-4),
8 EST ESPN2
Why to watch: Thanks to
Tennessee, this isn’t a battle
for the SEC East cellar between
the two programs used to being
swept aside by the big boys.
Kentucky is going bowling, doing
a great job of retooling just
enough on offense to help out
its tremendous, but banged up,
defense. The Wildcats became
bowl eligible two weeks ago with
a tough 14-13 win over
Mississippi State, and then last
week they lost a heartbreaking
shootout to Georgia. They can
play with just about anyone,
anyone other than Florida, with
three of the losses coming by
seven points or fewer, including
a 17-14 battle at Alabama.
Vanderbilt has been in a holding
pattern … again. So close to a
bowl game over the last few
years, the Commodores haven’t
been able to hit the six-win
mark under head coach Bobby
Johnson, and this year, they’ve
gone four straight games without
being able to get over the hump.
With Tennessee and Wake Forest
to follow, there’s still time,
but the longer it takes to get
to six wins, the bigger the
albatross becomes around the
program’s neck.
Why Vanderbilt might win:
Kentucky remains banged up, very
banged up, on defense. When
everyone is healthy, UK has one
of the best Ds in the SEC, but
at the moment, top lineman Myron
Pryor is still struggling
through an ankle injury, LB
Micah Johnson has been sick, and
star corner Trevard Lindley is
trying to fight through a knee
injury. The struggling
Vanderbilt offense needs all the
help it can get.
Why Kentucky might win:
Vanderbilt remains consistently
lousy on offense. Nothing’s
working, even in garbage time of
blowouts. There’s no passing
game, the ground game struggles
when the quarterbacks aren’t on
the move, and the points aren’t
coming. The team has scored 14
points in four of the last five
games, and the fifth game was a
10-7 loss to Duke. The Kentucky
offense proved last week that it
can get hot for stretches thanks
to ...
Who to watch: … freshman
QB Randall Cobb. Injuries have
hit the UK offense hard, too.
Needing playmakers, the offense
has leaned on Cobb, who has put
the offense on his back over the
last few weeks as both a runner
and a passer. He tore off 82
yards and three touchdowns
against Georgia last week, but
it was his one interception
thrown late in the game that
proved to be the killer. Even in
defeat, he showed that he’s the
talent the program can build
around for the next three years,
but first, he has to finish out
this season hot.
What will happen:
Vanderbilt will have to wait
another week to try to get that
sixth win. It won’t be a thing
of beauty, but the Kentucky
defense will do just enough to
overcome three turnovers from
Cobb and the offense.
CFN Prediction: Kentucky
20 … Vanderbilt 14 ... Line:
Kentucky -4.5
Must See Rating: (5
Quantum Of Solace – 1
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) …
2.5
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Troy
(6-3) at LSU (6-3),
8 EST GamePlan
Why to watch: This isn’t
exactly where LSU thought it’d
be at this point. The national
title dreams have long been
dashed, and the SEC title hopes
were picked off in overtime last
week in a tough loss to Alabama.
The defense has struggled and
the offense is looking for some
consistency. However, as
disappointing as the season has
been, there’s still a chance for
a ten-win season and a New
Year’s Day bowl game by beating
Troy this week followed up by
dates with Ole Miss and
Arkansas. Troy is just looking
to get through this week alive
before the team’s most important
game of the year. Next week is
the equivalent of the Sun Belt
title with the showdown against
UL Lafayette, followed up by
another tough date with Arkansas
State. Both games are at home
and both will make or break the
Troy season, but a win over LSU
would be truly special. Troy has
pulled off wins over name teams
in the past, but to do it in
Death Valley might change the
program.
Why Troy might win: LSU
is having problems turning the
ball over. While there have only
been two lost fumbles, Jarrett
Lee and the passing game have
been throwing picks including
eight in the last three games.
Troy doesn’t have the horses to
beat LSU straight up, but it has
a phenomenal pass rush that
should get to Lee just enough to
force him to make a few
mistakes. The Trojan defense
leads the nation in tackles for
loss and it third in sacks.
Why LSU might win: As
good as the Troy defensive front
has been, it can be pounded on.
Ohio State, without Beanie Wells
at the time, was able to come up
with 170 yards on the ground.
While that’s not a field day, it
was enough to get by in the win.
Oklahoma State’s phenomenal
offensive line paved the way for
358 rushing yards and four
scores. LSU’s offensive line is
just as good and it should be
able to open up some decent
holes for Charles Scott, who’s
averaging 109 rushing yards per
game.
Who to watch: Can Jarrett
Lee play, or is he just young
and trying to fight through the
growing pains? The redshirt
freshman has a good arm and nice
touch, as shown by a perfectly
thrown touchdown pass to
Demetrius Byrd last week against
Alabama. He has also been decent
in the clutch; at least he was
until last week when he was
picked off in the end zone in
overtime. Worst of all in the
four-pick game, the coaching
staff had to hide him, doing
whatever it could to keep him
from having to throw the ball.
The last three games, and the
bowl, will be vital in his
development.
What will happen: LSU
will go through the motions to
get the win. Troy’s defense will
keep it from getting out of
hand, but Scott will roll for
125 yards and Lee will keep his
mistakes to a minimum.
CFN Prediction: LSU 34 …
Troy 13 ... Line: LSU -19.5
Must See Rating: (5
Quantum Of Solace – 1
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) …
2.5
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SEC Fearless Predictions, Week
11, Nov. 15 |