Big East Fearless Predictions, Aug. 30

Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 Big East Games

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Big East Monday, September 1

Game of the Week
Fresno State (0-0) at Rutgers (0-0), 4:30 EST, ESPN, Monday, September 1
Why to watch: While it’s not as sexy as Alabama vs. Clemson or Illinois vs. Missouri, Fresno State at Rutgers has a chance of sneaking up and being the game of the opening weekend. Under Pat Hill, Fresno State has built a reputation for taking on bigger programs, which it’ll certainly enhance with this year’s non-conference slate. Although a trip to the East Coast is just the first of many scheduled landmines, the Bulldogs believe they’re loaded for a run at a WAC title and possibly a BCS bowl berth, but the schedule goes beyond nasty, starting here. The offense, in particular, has all the parts to be the most prolific in Hill’s 12 seasons, and it’ll have to hitting on all cylinders. Rutgers missed the mark at 8-5 last year, and will be looking to recapture some of the magic it had in 2006 as it tries to become even more of a player in the Big East race. Doing so will require replacing RB Ray Rice, arguably the most important player in school history. While it hasn’t been a memorable offseason in Piscataway, the Scarlet Knights can change that tune in a hurry with a nationally-televised win over a ranked opponent.
Why Fresno State might win: Rutgers will have problems all season with teams that can play smash-mouth football. Fresno State is one of those teams. The Bulldogs sport a physical offensive line and a couple of proven runners in Ryan Mathews and Lonyae Miller. They’ll wear out a depleted Knight interior that was forced to shift undersized end Jamaal Westerman to tackle in the spring. If Rutgers commits too much to the run, QB Tom Brandstater will make him pay by hooking up with Marlon Moore and Bear Pascoe, one of the country’s premier tight ends.
Why Rutgers might win: Fresno State is special on offense. On defense? Not so much … at least not yet. The Bulldogs lack star power and proven stoppers, especially with a secondary that picked off just four passes in 2007. That’ll be a major concern against Mike Teel, who’ll play pitch-and-catch all day with the dynamic duo of Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood, both of whom had over 1,000 receiving last year. Rice may be gone, but Rutgers will still be able to establish the run with its own shifty tandem of Kordell Young and Mason Robinson, among others.
Who to watch: He’s taken his sweet time, but Brandstater is finally on the brink of the kind of breakout year that makes NFL scouts take notice. With the running game getting the bulk of the attention, he needs to make plays through the air against a tough Rutgers secondary that’s led by FS Courtney Greene along with returning three starters.
What will happen: Both teams will move the ball in an end-to-end thriller that won’t be decided until the final minutes. The two teams will fittingly duke it out like a couple of heavyweights until Fresno State wears out Rutgers with a blue-collar running game that’ll wind being among the nation’s best.
CFN Prediction: Fresno State 35 ... Rutgers 31 ... Line: Rutgers -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 4
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Big East Thursday, August 28

Hofstra (0-0) at Connecticut (0-0), 7:30 EST, Thursday, August 28
Why to watch: Connecticut takes its first steps toward eliminating more skeptics and proving that last year’s 9-4 record and flirtation with the Big East title was no fluke. The Huskies are flush with returning starters on both sides of the ball, meaning expectations will remain high throughout the year, and it all has to start with an impressive first performance. A visit from a Colonial Athletic Association program allows Randy Edsall to tinker with the passing game and get his first good look at a revamped offensive line. Hofstra is coming off a 7-4 season that ended with a disheartening 1-4 stretch run. It’s a good thing head coach Dave Cohen is a defensive specialist because he’s facing heavy turnover on the D. The Pride enters the season as a mid-level contender in the CAA North, lagging behind Massachusetts and New Hampshire in the preseason prognostications.
Why Hofstra might win: The Pride brings back eight starters on offense, none more dangerous than QB Bryan Savage, a dual-threat who accounted for 23 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards of offense in his first season out of junior college. Despite the defections, Cohen has had a knack for whipping the defense into shape and has attracted transfers from the likes of Notre Dame, Miami, Rutgers, and Penn State to keep his unit among the league’s best. Connecticut is a one-dimensional offense with little pop in the passing game and not a single threat at wide receiver.
Why Connecticut might win: The Husky defense should be every bit as stingy as last year, when it was air-tight and opportunistic in all but the loss to West Virginia. Savage will struggle to throw on cornerbacks Darius Butler and Tyvon Branch, while feeling constant pressure from speedy ends Cody Brown and Julius Williams. No matter how quickly the Pride D rebounds, it won’t slow down Andre Dixon or Donald Brown, runners who could each go for more than 100 yards on the ground.
Who to watch: If the Huskies are to take the next step in the Big East, they’ve got to be better than 97^th nationally through the air. Although the ineptitude wasn’t his fault, the onus falls on QB Tyler Lorenzen to spark the passing game in his second season as the starter. This is the type of game that’ll give him a chance to develop some rapport with receivers other than TE Steve Brouse.
What will happen: Connecticut will have no problems suffocating the Hofstra offense, gobbling up over 200 yards on the ground, or getting the starters to the sidelines shortly after halftime. With a step up in competition ahead, the Huskies will use the opener as an exhibition game, getting reps for as much of the two-deep as possible.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 41... Hofstra 6 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 1
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Eastern Kentucky (0-0) at Cincinnati (0-0), 7:30 EST, Thursday, August 28
Why to watch: On a map, Cincinnati and Eastern Kentucky are separated by only 100 miles. On grass, the gap is just a little bit wider. In Brian Kelly’s second season, the Bearcats are looking to build on last year’s 10-win season and unprecedented success. Although the coach welcomes back plenty of starters, one that’s missing is QB Ben Mauk, who was denied a sixth year of eligibility, even though he keeps trying. If Cincy is going to contend for a Big East title and remain in the Top 25, it needs senior Dustin Grutza to evolve beyond being just a nice game manager. Eastern Kentucky is the defending Ohio Valley Conference champ, and an early favorite to contend again this year. Even without head coach Danny Hope, who’s now at Purdue, the Colonels return enough talent on both sides of the ball, including QB Allan Holland, to do no worse than a 31^st straight winning season.
Why Eastern Kentucky might win: Fresh off a league championship, the Colonels are confident and won’t be intimidated by a Big East opponent. Holland is the reigning OVC Offensive Player of the Year, bringing much-needed poise and leadership to a difficult situation on the road. By FCS standards, the defense is feisty, which could present problems for a Cincinnati offense breaking in new starters in the backfield. At least EKU won’t have to contend with all-star DT Terrill Byrd, who’s suspended for the opener.
Why Cincinnati might win: Even without Byrd in the middle, the Colonels won’t have much luck moving the ball on a nasty Bearcat defense that creates a lot of pressure and turnovers. Eastern Kentucky has to find replacements on the offensive line and a feature back to succeed Bobby Washington and Mark Dunn. Holland will have no choice but to go up top, where he’ll find corners Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith, two of the best pick-pockets in the country. Even if the Cincinnati offense doesn’t erupt, receivers Marcus Barnett and Dominick Goodman will get past the secondary at least a couple of times for long gainers.
Who to watch: No one is more vital to the fate of the Bearcats this season than Grutza. The defense is set, but if the Cat Attack offense sputters, this will be a middle-of-the-pack Big East team. Although he’ll never have a pro pistol, he can use this game to create a little momentum and gain the confidence of his teammates.
What will happen: Don’t be surprised if Cincinnati is sluggish in the first half before turning it up in the final two quarters. A big date with Oklahoma awaits next Saturday, and while it will be easy to look ahead, that won’t be the issue. The solid EKU team will be. The Bearcats will control the game on defense, picking off a few passes while setting the offense up with great field position. They’ll get enough from the passing game and RB Jacob Ramsey to rest the starters in the final 15 minutes.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 37... Eastern Kentucky 10 ...  Line: Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 1.5
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Big East Saturday, August 30

Tennessee-Martin (0-0) at South Florida (0-0), 7:00 EST, Saturday, August 30
Why to watch: South Florida and Tennessee-Martin meet for the first time in a game the Bulls will use as a tune-up for next week’s trip to UCF. USF remains a big story on a national scale, but they’ll still have something to prove after closing 2007 with a Sun Bowl implosion versus Oregon. The chief priorities heading into the season will be to cut down on turnovers, stabilize the situation at cornerback, and get bruising back Mike Ford more involved with the offense. Meanwhile, by FCS standards, UT-Martin represents a decent sparring partner. The Skyhawks were 4-7 a year ago, but with eight starters back on each side of the ball, they’re hoping to contend for a second Ohio Valley Conference championship in the last three years. In South Carolina transfer Cade Thompson and Dexter Anoka, they’ve got two quarterbacks with starting experience.
Why Tennessee-Martin might win: The Skyhawks boast an explosive, balanced offense that’ll test a Bull D moving forward without long-time stars Ben Moffitt, Mike Jenkins, and Trae Williams. Thompson and Anoka will spend the evening looking for Roren Thomas, a long ball threat and one of the league’s best receivers. UT-Martin finished last season by scoring 174 points in the final three games, and will look to turn this game into a track meet.
Why South Florida might win: While the Skyhawks might pick up some yards through the air, they’ll labor to reach the end zone and avoid turnovers. The Bulls remain a fast and aggressive defense that’ll get in the quarterback’s face and create takeaways. UT-Martin has no one that’ll contain sackmaster George Selvie or a rock-solid defense that’s home to all-stars at every level. South Florida has become a neatly balanced offense, featuring the running of Ford and the passing of Matt Grothe to an explosive corps of receivers.
Who to watch: While playing an OVC opponent won’t answer much about the cornerbacks; this will be the first chance to see Jerome Murphy and Tyller Roberts as regulars. A couple of fantastic athletes, their ability to replace Jenkins and Williams in the secondary will go a long way to determining how far USF goes this season.
What will happen: South Florida will be in cruise control throughout the night, delighting the home crowd and disposing of UT-Martin before halftime. The offense will be especially crisp, controlling the scrimmage with an improving line and turning loose a group of underrated skill position players.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 51 ... Tennessee-Martin 7... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 1.5
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Syracuse (0-0) at Northwestern (0-0), 12:00 EST, ESPN2, Saturday, August 30
Why to watch: If you’re looking for a sleeper out of the Big Ten, Northwestern just might be it. The Wildcats have a fleet of talent on offense, a young, third-year coach settling into the job, and a schedule that generate instant momentum. After fumbling opportunities to get to the postseason, head coach Pat Fitzgerald shook up the staff in an attempt to prevent a repeat performance. New offensive coordinator Mick McCall has installed a no-huddle offense that could get unheralded QB C.J. Bacher, the Big Ten’s leader in total offense last season, the notoriety he deserves. The more things change, the more they stay the same for Syracuse, which is trying to save Greg Robinson’s job and snap a string of four straight losing seasons. The consensus preseason choice to occupy the Big East basement, the Orange recently lost top receiver Mike Williams and starting DE Brandon Gilbeaux to academic issues.
Why Syracuse might win: The Northwestern secondary is a work-in-progress, and Orange QB Andrew Robinson will be looking to exploit it. He progressed well in his first season as a starter, finishing with 13 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. The expected returns of backs Delone Carter and Curtis Brinkley finally give defenses a reason to defend the run, opening things up for Robinson to find Donte Davis and Lavar Lobdell. Disruptive NT Arthur Jones is capable of wreaking havoc against a Wildcat offensive line breaking in three new starters.
Why Northwestern might win: The Orange doesn’t have the weapons on offense to keep up with a Wildcat offense loaded with playmakers and potential. With Bacher at the controls, Tyrell Sutton and Omar Conteh running the ball, and three of the top four receivers back, Northwestern can simply out gun Syracuse. The feeble Orange offensive line will have its hands full with the strength of the Wildcat defense, a rugged, physical defensive line that could quietly be among the best in the Big Ten.
Who to watch: With tackle John Gill sitting the game out, the headliner of the Wildcat D-line will be end Corey Wootton, a man-child who’ll face a Syracuse line that allowed 54 sacks a year ago. At 6-7 and 270 pounds, he has NFL size and potential if he can show more acceleration off the edge. Without Gill to attract attention on the inside, the ends must get more pressure than last season if the pass defense is going to have a chance.
What will happen: With the program confident and headed in a northern direction, Northwestern will use Syracuse to make a statement in front of a national TV audience. Of the 10 best players on the field, nine of them will be wearing purple, and it’ll show in a one-sided win for the Wildcats.
CFN Prediction: Northwestern 37... Syracuse 20 ... Line: Northwestern -12
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 2
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Bowling Green (0-0) at Pitt (0-0), 12:00 EST, Saturday, August 30
Why to watch: With expectations percolating in Pittsburgh, the program absolutely, positively has to come through with a big season in 2008, and it absolutely, positively, has to come through with a hot start. It begins with a visit from Bowling Green. Ever since shocking West Virginia last December, the Panthers have been the trendy pick in the Big East to deliver a breakthrough, bowl-bound season. If they fall short with the nation ogling the results, fourth-year head coach Dave Wannstedt might find it hard to survive. In RB LeSean McCoy and LB Scott McKillop, Pitt has an All-American candidate on each side of the ball. After winning a surprising eight games with a young squad, the Falcons enter the season as one of the favorites to take the MAC East. The offense is among the league’s most explosive, returning eight starters from a unit that scored 30 points eight times in 2007.
Why Bowling Green might win: With the passing of Tyler Sheehan, the receiving of Freddie Barnes, and the multi-dimensional talents of RB Anthony Turner, the Falcons have the ingredients of a prolific offense. If there’s a concern on the Pittsburgh defense, it’s with a secondary that has a few too many lapses and only picked off eight passes a year ago. The Panthers are far from destitute in pass defense, but they will get tested by a complex offense that welcomes back pass-catchers who accounted for more than 90% of last year’s receptions.
Why Pittsburgh might win: Thin and undersized up front, Bowling Green won’t be able to stop the run. That’s not a plus considering McCoy is a threat to go for 100 yards each and every week. Against this Falcon D, 200 yards will be the target. The Panthers have concerns in the trenches, but it won’t be evident this week. With C.J. Davis and Jason Pinkston leading the way, Pitt will blow Bowling Green off the ball, creating running lanes for McCoy, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Shariff Harris. With time to throw, Bill Stull, named the starter late this summer, will enjoy a successful return following last year’s season-ending injury in the opener.
Who to watch: The Panthers are thrilled to be getting back WR Derek Kinder, who missed all of 2007 with an ACL injury. One of the Big East’s premier receivers before going out, he’ll make a good collection of players substantially more productive. Bowling Green has problems shutting down good receivers. With Kinder back, this is one of the deepest corps it’ll face all season.
What will happen: Pittsburgh is for real. Well, at least for now. The Panthers will control the game on the ground with McCoy, wearing out an overmatched defense and keeping the Falcon offense on the sidelines for long stretches of time. Although Sheehan will make plays, he’ll also turn the ball when flushed from the pocket by hard-charging end Greg Romeus.
CFN Prediction: Pittsburgh 34 ... Bowling Green 17... Line: Pitt -12.5
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 2.5
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Villanova (0-0) at West Virginia (0-0), 3:30 EST, ESPN Gameplan, Saturday, August 30
Why to watch: Rich Rodriguez is gone, but the expectations remain the same in Morgantown. Despite some of the changes that have taken place since last December, West Virginia is once again the favorite to win the Big East and in the discussion for a national championship run, but the Bill Stewart era has to get off to a rousing start. As long as QB Pat White is being Pat White, the Mountaineer attack should still be as explosive as ever. New coordinator Jeff Mullen has hinted toward more balance this fall, which means White will get a chance to showcase his underrated left arm. A perennial power in the Colonial Athletic Association, Villanova begins the season as an underdog in the league’s South Division. The Wildcats were thinking playoffs a year ago, but fell victim to injuries and failed to qualify at 7-4. In recent years, Andy Talley’s team has performed well against FBS opponents.
Why Villanova might win: Okay, so he’s no White, but the Wildcats have a playmaker of their own behind center. Antwon Young was terrific as the starter, throwing for 14 touchdowns and just four picks, while rushing for 151 yards and a pair of scores. The Wildcats weren’t the same in the second half after he went down with an injury. Against a Mountaineer defensive line in transition, he should have time to locate favorite targets Brandyn Harvey and Phil Atkinson, who combined for 11 touchdowns.
Why West Virginia might win: The Mountaineers will be able to exploit a suspect Villanova defense with pure speed or raw power. The offensive line, one of the most physical in the country, will maul the Wildcat front, creating the daylight needed for White and RB Noel Devine to zip through untouched. With all day to throw, White will have a target practice with an underutilized set of receivers that needs the reps. If pressure isn’t created the old fashioned way, West Virginia has no problems turning loose one of its speedy outside linebackers, Mortty Ivy or J.T. Thomas.
Who to watch: Now that Steve Slaton is a Houston Texan, Devine gets his first opportunity to be the feature back in Morgantown. He’s already proven to be a gamebreaker, but at 5-8 and 170 pounds, there are lingering doubts about his ability to shoulder the load in an offense that still favors the run. The Mountaineers have limited depth at the position, so he needs to be up to the challenge. This would be an ideal spot to break the seal on Terence Kerns, the school’s top recruit from last year’s class.
What will happen: The Mountaineers will roll like the good old days no matter who’s on the sidelines. It’ll be a surprise if Pat McAfee punts more than once, as White and Devine will keep the chains moving against a Villanova D that’s way out of its league.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 47 ... Villanova 13... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 1.5
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Big East Sunday, September 31

Kentucky (0-0) at Louisville (0-0), 3:30 EST, ESPN, Sunday, August 31
Why to watch: Unlike last September when the stakes were sky-high and generated a national buzz, the appeal of this year’s bluegrass battle won’t extend far beyond the Commonwealth. Of course the game matters locally, but with both programs in transition years, most of the country will struggle to latch on to a good storyline. After being fueled by the offense the last two seasons, Kentucky will lean on a defense that has a chance to be very good. The offense, on the other hand, could be their undoing, as the program tries to move forward without star QB Andre Woodson and most of his weapons. Louisville is trying to regroup after last year’s abysmal 6-6 season that created a firestorm of criticism for rookie head coach Steve Kragthorpe. It won’t be easy, considering the defense is a mess and the offense is replacing its all-star quarterback, leading rusher, and top four receivers. The Cards appear to have huge edge behind center, where long-time backup Hunter Cantwell gets his last chance to show scouts he has a pro arm. Now he has to show it off. Is he worth all the hype and NFL attention? If so, this is the type of game to showcase it.
Why Kentucky might win: Although last year’s numbers won’t bear it out, the ‘Cats house more defensive talent than at any point in the Rich Brooks era. DE Jeremy Jarmon, LB Braxton Kelley, and CB Trevard Lindley are All-SEC-caliber players who’ll frustrate a Louisville offense that’ll spend the first month of the season looking for an identity and playmakers. Once Lindley locks down Louisville’s best receiver, which is a question mark now that Scott Long is out with a broken foot, Cantwell will quickly run out of reliable options in the passing game.
Why Louisville might win: Welcome to the big time, Mike Hartline. When Kentucky goes on the road to face its biggest rival, it’ll do so with a sophomore quarterback, who’s thrown just six career passes and has the weight of the team on his shoulders. The Wildcats’ pass protection problems will be under scrutiny against the strength of the Cardinal, a veteran defensive line led by tackle Earl Heyman and end Maurice Mitchell. New coordinator Ron English will find a way to get in Hartline’s face and force him into mistakes.
Who to watch: Watch the battles at the line of scrimmage. They’ll entertain and dictate who leaves Papa John’s with bragging rights. For Kentucky, that means All-SEC T Garry Williams must keep Hartline from getting touched, while creating space for RB Alfonso Smith. For Louisville, All-Big East C Eric Wood will be asked to keep DT Myron Pryor from living in the backfield. If either school produces a 100-yard rusher, it’ll win by double-digits.
What will happen: When little separates two programs, go with the home team that has a fifth-year senior at quarterback. It’s asking too much of Hartline to go on the road in a nasty environment and lead his team to win in his first career start, and while he has the more talented defense to try to carry the day, the Cardinal offense will start to look like the Cardinal offense of old after a few series. Cantwell will make enough plays through the air, getting help from the running tandem of Bilal Powell and Brock Bolen, in a nip-and-tuck victory.
CFN Prediction: Louisville 33 ... Kentucky 27... Line: UL -4.5
Must See Rating: (5 90210 - 1 90210, at least what you’ll say among your friends) … 3
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