Big East Fearless Predictions, Sept. 27

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 Big East Games

Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers
South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20

How are the picks so far? SU: 18-9 ... ATS: 7-14

- Week 5, Sept. 27 Predictions, Part 2

Big East Game of the Week

Friday, September 26

Connecticut (4-0) at Louisville (2-1), 8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, September 26
Why to watch: What in the name of Browning Nagle has gotten into Louisville? Just when you think you’ve got the Cardinals figured out, they go ahead and deliver their most complete game in ages, a 38-29 win over Kansas State that was far worse than the score indicated. A star was born in the victory, as freshman RB Victor Anderson raced for 176 yards and three long touchdown runs. The start of Big East play will signal whether or not Louisville is officially turning the corner under Steve Kragthorpe. Connecticut remained unbeaten, but did so barely against Robert Griffin and Baylor. The Huskies begin a gauntlet of three straight road games that’ll dictate just how far this program is capable of going this fall.
Why Connecticut might win: Baylor hurt the Huskies with the mobility and ad-libs of Griffin. Louisville, however, doesn’t have that type of quarterback. Hunter Cantwell is a stationary target, which is going to be a problem against the aggressive Connecticut defense. Versus conventional pocket passers, it allowed just 22 points in the first three games, getting constant pressure from a front seven that’s led by DE Cody Brown and LB Scott Lutrus. Husky Donald Brown leads the country in rushing, and is the kind of workhorse that’ll keep Cantwell & Co. on the sidelines for long stretches of time.
Why Louisville might win: Kragthorpe’s best decision in the offseason was to hire Ron English, who has done a remarkable job with the Cardinal defense. He’ll have a hard time keeping him from getting plucked by an SID at the end of the year. Despite losing a ton of players to graduation, Louisville has really stepped it up in the front seven behind the play of linemen Earl Heyman and L.D. Scott, and LB Antwon Canady. The Cards are No. 2 nationally against the run, a problem for a Connecticut offense that’s painfully one-dimensional.
Who to watch: Often times, you just don’t know what you have until the season begins. Especially when it comes to freshmen. Witness Anderson, a terrific recruit, but a player that wasn’t supposed to pay dividends for another year or two. Instead, he has sparked the Louisville offense with back-to-back 100-yard games that have helped Cantwell get back to playing like the quarterback with an NFL future.
What will happen: Louisville will continue playing like the antithesis of the team that was awful in the opener with Kentucky. Connecticut is never an easy out, but the Cards will get to 3-1 behind the balanced offense and a defense that’ll load the box and dare the Huskies to beat them with QB Tyler Lorenzen.
CFN Prediction: Louisville 27 … Connecticut 20 ... Line: Louisville -3
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 3.5
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 Saturday, September 27

Pittsburgh (2-1) at Syracuse (1-3), 12:00 EST, ESPN Gameplan
Why to watch: While it has hardly been dominant, Pittsburgh has regrouped nicely since its opening day loss to Bowling Green. The Panthers have escaped with wins over Buffalo and Iowa, and now have a chance to get on a little roll. Of the next four games, including this week’s road trip to the Carrier Dome, only a game at South Florida will require an upset to get the win. The Orange got a confidence-boosting first win of the season at the expense of lowly Northeastern. In stark contrast to Pitt, Syracuse is about to embark on a wicked stretch without any breathers. The program better have gotten a snapshot of Saturday’s 30-21 victory because it might be the only one it gets this fall.
Why Pittsburgh might win: The Panther defense may bend from time to time, but it rarely breaks, allowing just 21 points a game and ranking No. 5 nationally in sacks. Pitt brought all kinds of pressure from the front seven, namely DE Greg Romeus, DT Mick Williams, and linebackers Greg Williams and Scott McKillop. This group will prove to be a handful for a Syracuse offensive line that’s getting better, but has yet to be really tested. The 114^th-ranked Orange D is among the worst in the nation, which will afford RB LeSean McCoy the room needed to pile up his best production of the year.
Why Syracuse might win: The Orange is going to need another big game from Curtis Brinkley, who has rushed for more than 140 yards in two of the last three games. He’s back to his pre-injury form and has the ability to control the clock and give the beleaguered Syracuse defense breaks. The Orange also needs to continue winning the turnover battle. While it leads the Big East in turnover margin, the Panthers are next-to-last in the league and have only three takeaways all year.
Who to watch: Pittsburgh QB Greg Cross saw his first action of the season, and immediately produce a big play. The change-of-pace to regular Bill Stull, he broke free for a 17-yard touchdown on a designed run. Although Stull’s job is safe, expect to see more packages from the staff that allow Cross to make plays with his legs.
What will happen: Pittsburgh has a little momentum and a big edge in talent over Syracuse on both sides of the ball. It’ll spring McCoy for his first 100-yard day of the season, and beat a flimsy Orange secondary on play-action downfield. The first four games are evidence that Syracuse is in no position to rise up and deliver an upset, even in its own house and with head coach Greg Robinson now in lame-duck status.
CFN Prediction: Pitt 31 … Syracuse 13 ... Line: Pitt -15.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
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Marshall (3-1) at West Virginia (1-2), 3:30 EST, ESPN Gameplan
Why to watch: For the first time in almost a decade, Marshall and West Virginia are trending in opposite directions, and it’s the Mountaineers that are embroiled in a crisis. The ‘eers are stumbling into this rivalry game, losers of two straight for the first time since 2004. The program has looked like a shell of its former self under Bill Stewart, sputtering on offense and appearing lost at the end of Thursday’s game at Colorado. West Virginia is still the defending champ out of the Big East, but it’s time the team starts playing like it. The Herd is confident after back-to-back wins over Memphis and Southern Miss, believing it has narrowed the divide on the Mountaineers. Marshall is one of just two 2-0 teams in Conference USA, and is off to its best start since 2002. A win in Morgantown would be a turning point for head coach Mark Snyder and the program.
Why Marshall might win: The Herd is learning how to win games, something that’s eluded the school under Snyder’s watch. It’s playing well near the line of scrimmage and limiting the mistakes in the second half. On offense, the line has been fantastic, allowing just two sacks in four games and helping spring RB Darius Marshall for more than 100 yards a game on the ground. The unit will help neutralize the Mountaineer pass rush, allowing Mark Cann the time to find explosive WR Darius Passmore and talented TE Cody Slate.
Why West Virginia might win: Stewart and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen would like the Mountaineers to throw the ball more than in recent years. They’ll get their wish versus Marshall. The Herd ranks 115^th nationally in pass defense and hasn’t had a lot of success getting to the quarterback. QB Pat White will have his best game through the air since the opener with Villanova, and RB Noel Devine will give past the second line of defense more than once. The West Virginia offense is having problems, but there’s still enough talent to get right against an average Conference USA defense.
Who to watch: The Mountaineers need more big plays in the passing game to keep opposing defenses from loading up the box. Last week, White completed 10 passes for just 43 yards. It’s imperative he start stretching the other team by getting top receivers Alric Arnett and Jock Sanders out in space. The pair was dynamite in Week 1, but has absolutely nothing since.
What will happen: Something’s missing in Morgantown, but there’s nothing like some home cooking and a visit from a cross-state rival to rekindle the flame. Although it won’t be as easy as recent years, West Virginia will climb back to .500 behind a huge afternoon from White and a couple of picks of Cann, a freshman who’ll be rattled by the mayhem at Mountaineer Field.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 34 … Marshall 20  ... Line: West Virginia -15.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 3
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- Week 5, Sept. 27 Predictions, Part 2