Big East Fearless Predictions Sept 27, Part 2

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 Big East, Part 2

Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers
South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20

How are the picks so far? SU: 18-9 ... ATS: 7-14

- Week 5, Sept. 27 Predictions

 Saturday, September 27

Morgan State (2-1) at Rutgers (0-3), 3:30 EST, ESPN Gameplan
Why to watch: The wheels are officially off the Rutgers football program, which is 0-3 and in danger of reprising a familiar role as one of college football’s doormats. The Scarlet Knightmare that has become the 2008 season hit a low point in Saturday’s 23-21 loss to Navy that ended with maligned QB Mike Teel taking a swipe at one of his own teammates. The program gets a break in the action with this week’s visit from Morgan State, but it’ll have to accomplish an awful lot in four quarters to begin turning things around. Morgan State has won its last two games, holding N.C. Central and Winston-Salem to a touchdown apiece. The Bears are a veteran team with a handful of All-MEAC candidates, especially on the defense and offensive line.
Why Morgan State might win: The Bears boast a speedy, attacking defense that’s ranked No. 4 overall in the FCS and No. 2 in tackles for loss. Linebackers Jarell Guyton and Fred Davis are disruptive forces capable of continuing the Scarlet Knights’ misery on offense. Rutgers has yet to score more than 21 points in a game and have thrown just a single touchdown pass in 102 attempts. On defense, the Scarlet Knights are the only program in the country that has yet to create a turnover. Zippo.
Why Rutgers might win: Besides keeping Teel off his back, the Scarlet Knights have done nothing well through the first three games. They’ll go back to the basics as if this is an exhibition game, using their size advantage along both lines to bully the Bears off the ball. RB Jourdan Brooks has been one of the few bright spots in Piscataway, rumbling for 134 yards and two scores in his first career start. Greg Schiano will ride his new horse 25 times, or until the game gets out of control. Morgan State has no passing game, which will allow Rutgers to focus most of its attention on stopping top runner Devan James.
Who to watch: It’s about time for Rutgers receivers Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood to be turned loose. Two of the best players on the roster, they’ve been kept in check by Teel’s inconsistency and errant passes. If the Scarlet Knights have any hopes of rebounding, it has to get Britt and Underwood back to being the field-stretching playmakers they were a year ago.
What will happen: Entertaining an opponent from the MEAC couldn’t come at a better time for Schiano and Rutgers. At least for one weekend, the Scarlet Knights will stop circling the drain long enough to flex their muscles at the expense of Morgan State. Brooks will deliver a second straight 100-yard game, tightening his grip on the starting job
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 38 … Morgan State 7 ... Line: No. Line
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 1
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Cincinnati (2-1) at Akron (2-2), 3:30 EST
Why to watch: Cincinnati passed its first test without injured starting quarterback Dustin Grutza, pounding Miami University, 45-20. The big story was the play of junior Tony Pike, who calmly went 20-of-24 for 241 yards and three touchdown passes in his first career start. That performance has given hope to a Bearcat program looking to battle back from a Week 2 rout at the hands of Oklahoma. Akron has split its first four games, getting back to .500 with a 22-3 win over Army on the Hudson. It was the first time all year that the Zips made key stops on defense, which must become a trend if they have any hopes of making a run in the MAC East.
Why Cincinnati might win: Although the Bearcats are inclined to throw before they run, they might want to tweak the gameplan a bit for this weekend. Akron has one of the worst run defenses in the country, allowing 243 yards a game and just under five yards a carry. This is the type of game that John Goebel and Jacob Ramsey could be used to set up the pass for a change. Even Syracuse had success against the Zip D earlier in the month, which doesn’t bode well for the home team Saturday night.
Why Akron might win: The dirty little secret about the vaunted Cincinnati pass defense is that it’s been beatable this fall. And it hasn’t only had problems with Oklahoma. Opponents are completing 70% of their passes against the Bearcats, who are 108^th in the country in pass efficiency defense. Akron QB Chris Jacquemain will still have to know where Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith are at all times, but he’ll be able to connect with junior college transfer Deryn Bowser and former defensive back Andre Jones.
Who to watch: Teams haven’t thrown much on Akron because it hasn’t been necessary. Why bother when the run D is so flexible? That doesn’t, however, mean the Zips are air tight in pass coverage. Pike will find that out when he drops back and notices Dominick Goodman and Marshwan Gilyard streaking past the secondary. The pair has picked up the slack as Marcus Barnett works his way back from injury, combining for 41 catches and six touchdowns through three games.
What will happen: With Pike at the controls, the Cincinnati offense rolled last week in the win over Miami University. Expect more of the same this Saturday, with the running game taking on a more expanded role. Akron will make a few plays through the air, but not nearly enough to compensate for the play of a leaky defense.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 44 … Akron 17 ... Line: Louisville -3
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
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South Florida (4-0) at North Carolina State (2-2), 7:30 EST, ESPNU
Why to watch: North Carolina State rose up and knocked East Carolina from the ranks of the unbeaten last Saturday with a 30-24 upset win. It’ll try to do the same to South Florida this weekend. It was the first signature win in the Tom O’Brien era and something the Wolfpack can build upon going forward. If State can overachieve for a second straight week, it can start seriously thinking about making a run at bowl eligibility in November. South Florida remained unbeaten with a win at Florida International, but it was a lot tougher than anyone could have imagined. The Bulls have won their last three games by eight points or fewer, a disturbing trend that could catch up to them over the final eight games. At No. 13 in the AP poll, they’re the highest ranked Big East team, but head coach Jim Leavitt knows his team has flaws that need to be addressed.
Why South Florida might win: N.C. State’s 109^th-ranked offense is going to have a whale of a time trying to score on the Bulls. South Florida has the nation’s No. 12 defense, a speedy unit that will put non-stop pressure on Harrison Beck, who’s replacing injured Russell Wilson at quarterback. The Wolfpack offense is predicated on establishing the run, which no one has done successfully versus USF. The Bulls are allowing just over two yards a carry and have yet to allow more than 76 yards in a game. With offenses fixated on DE George Selvie, others such as NT Terrell McClain and DE Craig Marshall, are stepping up and making stops.
Why NC State might win: The Wolfpack D may not have as many recognizable names as South Florida, but it’s been every bit as feisty this month. State has already created a dozen turnovers, second only to Wake Forest in the ACC, and has been able to get consistent pressure up front with ends Willie Young and Shea McKeen. If the Pack can force QB Matt Grothe into mistakes, the talent gap between these two schools will be erased.
Who to watch: South Florida LB Tyrone McKenzie has been playing like a man possessed since the season began. He’s making plays all over the field, and has registered at least one tackle for loss in all four games. He’ll be keeping a close watch on Wolfpack RB Andre Brown, who was one of the heroes on Saturday, powering his way to 73 yards and the game-winning touchdown.
What will happen: South Florida is going to struggle to shake North Carolina State, a program that’s been playing much better of late and will be energized by the Carter-Finley crowd. The Bulls will survive another close call, snuffing out a Wolfpack drive for the tying touchdown late in the final quarter.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 28 … NC State 16... Line: USF -8
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 4
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- Week 5, Sept. 27 Predictions