Big East Fearless Predictions, Oct. 4

South Florida and QB Matt Grothe might have struggled a bit, but they came up with a win over Kansas and now, with a nationally televised battle tonight against Pitt, they hope to make a big statement. Check out the Previews and Predictions for the Week 6 Big East Games

 
Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers
South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20
- Sept. 27

How are the picks so far? SU: 23-10 ... ATS: 8-18

Big East Game of the Week

Thursday, October 2

Pitt (3-1) at South Florida (5-0), 7:30 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: Although there were a couple of conference games last weekend, the Big East season really starts kicking into gear with this game in Tampa. At No. 10 in the country, South Florida is carrying the banner for a league that’s searching for national respect. The Bulls have far more provincial interests, such as winning their first conference crown and playing in a BCS bowl game. After living dangerously in wins over UCF, Kansas, Florida International, they torched NC State, 41-10, for a rare complete game. Exactly where is Pittsburgh after the first month of the season? Sure, the Panthers have won three straight after losing the opener to Bowling Green, but they haven’t converted any doubters, especially after needing a comeback to beat Syracuse. A win over South Florida would be the turning point Dave Wannstedt has been seeking.
Why Pittsburgh might win: The Panthers have been solid on defense all year, bending at times but rarely breaking. Linebackers Scott McKillop and Austin Ransom, and ends Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard are the pillars of a front seven that stop the run and rank No. 7 nationally in sacks. The South Florida offense can be sporadic, and has yet to be punched in the mouth this fall. Pittsburgh is going to change that on Thursday night.
Why South Florida might win: The Panthers will need to dig deep into the offensive playbook because LeSean McCoy and the running game won’t have much room. The Bulls are No. 4 in the country at stopping the run, which means QB Bill Stull will have to play the best game of his career to author the upset. The Pitt offensive line’s season-long struggles will continue at Raymond James Stadium. DE George Selvie is expected back from an ankle injury, and the rest of the quick defense will look to test that shaky line as much as possible. If the Panthers can’t move it on the ground, they won’t be competitive.
Who to watch: Although the season isn’t even half over, South Florida QB Matt Grothe is playing as if this will be his true breakthrough season in Tampa. He made plenty of big plays the last two years, but had almost as many mistakes. This fall, he’s making better decisions, forcing fewer passes, and leading an offense that’s already produced over 500 yards in three games. Given time, he’ll have success versus a beatable Pittsburgh secondary.
What will happen: South Florida has almost built a program on Thursday and Friday nights, particularly at home. The Bulls and their fans will be fired up as usual, controlling the Pittsburgh running game and making Stull rush his passes. Grothe will get help from Mike Ford, Benjamin Williams, and Moise Plancher, the principles of an improving running game.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 31 … Pitt 16 ... Line: USF -13.5
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 3.5
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 Saturday, October 4

Cincinnati (3-1) at Marshall (3-2), 8:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: Marshall gets a rare opportunity to strut in front of a national TV audience and a shot at a Big East opponent for a second straight week. Last Saturday didn’t go so well. The Herd was shut down by West Virginia, 27-3, managing just 158 yards in a sloppy effort. It’ll be looking to recapture the form that led to back-to-back Conference USA wins over Memphis and Southern Miss. Cincinnati is coming off a narrow escape at Akron, pulling out a 17-15 win on a Jake Rogers field goal in the final quarter. Whatever problems the Bearcats are having, no one can place them at the feet of new starting QB Tony Pike who completed 74% of his passes and thrown five touchdowns without an interception before breaking his arm. The lack of a proven starting quarterback should keep this close.
Why Cincinnati might win: Marshall folded like a tent when it faced a solid Big East defense a week ago. It’ll do so again this Friday. Save for the game with Oklahoma, which is in a different league, the Bearcats have been air-tight on defense, creating turnovers, stopping the run, and getting to the quarterback. This group will be a tall order for Marshall QB Mark Cann, a freshman that’s still prone to making rookie mistakes. DT Terrill Byrd will get in his face, and defensive backs Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith will make him pay for staring down receivers and telegraphing passes.
Why Marshall might win: Marshall is unbeaten in Huntington. Cincinnati has not played well away from home. Expect to see a different Herd team than the one that hardly showed up at West Virginia. It’ll get after a one-dimensional Bearcat offense that’s had problems moving the ball on the ground. LB Mario Harvey and DE Albert McClellan have the speed to get after Pike and flush him out of the pocket. On offense, RB Darius Marshall, WR Darius Passmore, and TE Cody Slate are playmakers who’ll support Cann in his quest to beat a quality defense.
Who to watch: The young Herd cornerbacks are going to be tested by the best set of receivers they faced all year. Mardy Gilyard and Dominick Goodman are the Big East’s top two receivers, combining for 54 receptions and eight touchdowns through the first four games. Even better, last year’s star, Marcus Barnett, is coming off his best game since breaking his leg last year. He had a season-high six catches for 66 yards, flashing some of his pre-injury form.
What will happen: Having already faced Wisconsin and West Virginia, Marshall won’t be intimidated by a visit from Cincinnati, especially with a backup quarterback like redshirt freshman Zach Collaros at the helm. The Herd will battle for four quarters and threaten to pull the upset before fading late. Mark Snyder has the program headed in a positive direction for a change, but until it can make a few key stops, especially in pass defense, it’s going to fall short against quality opponents.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 27 … Marshall 20 ... Line: Cincinnati -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 2
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Rutgers (1-3) at West Virginia (2-2), 12:00 EST, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: Both Rutgers and West Virginia snapped nagging losing streaks against inferior opponents, but does that mean they’re ready to fulfill preseason expectations? The Mountaineers rebounded from losses to East Carolina and Colorado to silence rival Marshall, 27-3. Running the ball with ease and yielding nothing on defense, they finally looked like the team that won the Big East and the Fiesta Bowl last year. Now the program will hold its breath and hope that QB Pat White’s thumb injury doesn’t impact his ability to play. A visit from Morgan State couldn’t come at a better time for the Scarlet Knights, which was awful in getting out of the gate with three consecutive losses. The victory stopped the bleeding for Rutgers, but little else. In order to really begin turning things around, it’ll need to beat old nemesis West Virginia, which hasn’t happened since 1994.
Why Rutgers might win: Ever since beefy Jourdan Brooks was inserted into the lineup, the Scarlet Knights have been running the ball with authority. They’ll attempt to do more of the same this week in order to take pressure off QB Mike Teel and keep the West Virginia offense on the sidelines for extended periods of time. If Rutgers can achieve a level of offensive balance, it’ll be able to outscore a Mountaineer team that’s been surprisingly inept, scoring just 44 points over the last three games.
Why West Virginia might win: The Scarlet Knights will prove to be the right tonic for what’s been ailing the West Virginia offense. Rutgers was gutted on the ground and picked apart through the air before the Morgan State game, becoming the last team in the country to create a turnover. It’s particularly weak up front, which will cause all kinds of problems against the veteran, physical Mountaineer line. West Virginia has gone old school lately, rushing for more than 300 yards in consecutive games, and getting back-to-back 100-yard games from Noel Devine.
Who to watch: For awhile, it looked as if West Virginia would be without LB Reed Williams for an extended time. Instead, he’s playing through shoulder pain and making an obvious difference in the middle to a defense that’s beginning to play much better. In his first start of the year, he had 11 tackles and two tackles for loss, as the ‘eers held Marshall to a field goal and just 158 total yards.
What will happen: No one should be fooled by Rutgers’ 38-0 pasting of Morgan State last Saturday. This is still a flawed program with a long history of failures against West Virginia. Assuming White’s thumb is fine, the Mountaineers will begin building a head of steam, getting another great game from the defense and enough big runs from Devine for a comfortable win.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 31 … Rutgers 14 ... Line: West Virginia -14
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 3
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Connecticut (5-0) at North Carolina (3-1), 7:00 EST
Why to watch: What looks like a game concocted by the Continental Tire Bowl committee actually has the potential to be an interesting match up between a couple of similar schools. Both programs are coming off impressive road victories, despite losing starting quarterbacks to broken bones. North Carolina came from behind to stun Miami, 28-24, behind the late-game heroics of Cameron Sexton, who was No. 3 on the depth chart just a week ago. The win offset last week’s loss to Virginia Tech, keeping the Heels in the hunt in the Coastal division. Connecticut is coming off a thrilling win at Louisville, scoring the final 16 points, including the game-winner on a Lawrence Wilson 45-yard interception return with 2:45 remaining. Now 5-0, the resilient Huskies have climbed into the Top 25 and just keep finding ways to pull games out. Staying unbeaten will require Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer to step up for QB Tyler Lorenzen, who broke his foot Friday night.
Why Connecticut might win: The Huskies’ success this fall has been erected upon the shoulders of nation’s-leading rusher Donald Brown and a defense that forces opponents to fight for every yard. Connecticut leads the Big East in scoring defense and is allowing just 314 yards a game. It’s a collective effort that closes fast on the ball and creates plenty of turnovers. With Cody Brown up front, Scott Lutrus in the middle, and Darius Butler at cornerback, UConn has an all-star at every level for Carolina to face. The best way to beat this D is with a multi-dimensional quarterback, but that doesn’t describe Sexton.
Why North Carolina might win: While Frazer certainly has long-term potential, the loss of Lorenzen is huge for Connecticut. He brought leadership and scrambling ability to an already predictable Husky offense. The Heels will be able to focus on stopping Brown by throwing everyone they can into the box. North Carolina is especially strong on the interior of the defense, sporting a solid rotation that includes Marvin Austin, Aleric Mullins, Cam Thomas, and Tydreke Powell. They’ll overwhelm the Connecticut front wall, preventing Brown from busting into the second level.
Who to watch: Connecticut’s 101^st-ranked kickoff return defense better tighten up in time for Saturday night’s game. Carolina’s Brandon Tate has been quiet of late, but is still No. 2 in the ACC in kick return average and can pop off a momentum-changer with one timely block. In a game that’ll be tight and low-scoring, he could be a difference-maker as a runner, receiver, or return specialist.
What will happen: Connecticut has a knack for playing everyone close, a product of a stingy defense and a clock-milking running game. This week won’t be any different. However, in the battle of the backups, Sexton has an edge, coming off a great effort in Miami and having starting experience from two years ago. He’ll build on last week’s effort, throwing a pair of touchdown passes that help the Heels to a hard-fought victory.
CFN Prediction: North Carolina 28 … Connecticut 20... Line: North Carolina -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 3.5
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