Big East Fearless Predictions, Oct. 25

Previews and Predictions for the Week 9 Big East Games

  
Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers
South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20
- Sept. 27 | Oct. 4 | Oct. 11 | Oct. 18

How are the picks so far? SU: 32-12 ... ATS: 15-21-1

Big East Game of the Week

Cincinnati (5-1) at Connecticut (5-2), 12:00 EST, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: Cincinnati and Connecticut enter this game as mirror images, five-win teams being led by stout defenses and backup quarterbacks. It was just a couple of weeks ago that the Huskies were ranked and riding high at 5-0. However, that was before QB Tyler Lorenzen suffered a season-ending injury and the team lost back-to-back games to North Carolina and Rutgers. In both cases, the special teams let the team down, which needs to be addressed over the final month of the year. The big news for the Bearcats during their bye week was that QB Tony Pike has been cleared to practice and will replace Chazz Anderson behind center. Pike, who had supplanted the injured Dustin Grutza in September, had been playing very well before breaking his left forearm.
Why Cincinnati might win: The Connecticut offense is all about RB Donald Brown, who leads the country in rushing. However, against a defense, such as the Bearcats, he’ll need the support of a passing game to get any running room. Don’t bank on Zach Frazer providing much help, especially against a secondary headed by all-star candidates Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith. Since getting bombed by Oklahoma, Cincinnati has allowed an average of just 14 points over the last four games. The Huskies don’t have the firepower to do much better.
Why Connecticut might win: The Bearcat defense has nothing on the Huskies. Connecticut continues to be kept in games by a disciplined and well-coached unit that’s second in the Big East in scoring D and is especially air-tight against the pass. Even when the team allows points, such as the North Carolina game, it’s usually a by-product of poor special teams play. While it’ll be nice getting Pike back in the huddle, there’s no guarantee he’ll come out firing after almost a month of inactivity. Plus, CB Darius Butler is so talented, he’ll cut off one section of the secondary for the quarterback to navigate.
Who to watch: Cincinnati has a hidden weapon by the name of Kevin Huber, who could be the difference in a tight ball game. The nation’s best all-around punter has a booming leg, with the 46-yard average to back it up, and the ability to pin the Huskies deep in their own territory. Frazer and the Connecticut offense are already having a slew of problems moving the chains. Huber will do his part to ensure that they don’t get any short-field opportunities.
What will happen: Pike may not be a difference-maker, but he does give the Bearcats a much better chance of getting the ball in the hands of playmaking receivers Mardy Gilyard and Dominick Goodman. The defense and special teams will take care of the rest, keeping the one-dimensional Husky offense stuck in neutral.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 23 … Connecticut 17 … Line: Connecticut -1
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 3.5
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 Thursday, October 23

Auburn (4-3) at West Virginia (4-2), 7:30 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: When schedules were released in the summer, this shaped up as one of the most intriguing non-conference match ups of the year. While five losses between Auburn and West Virginia have certainly diminished its national appeal, it remains a critical crossroads game for both schools. Back-to-back losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas have eliminated the Tigers from SEC contention and Tony Franklin from his post as the offensive coordinator. Auburn will be giving the ball to versatile sophomore Kodi Burns, the player’s and fans’ choice to pilot the disabled offense. The Mountaineers are having offensive problems of their own under Jeff Mullen, who’s become the Big East’s version of Franklin around Morgantown. On the bright side, West Virginia expects to get Pat White back from a concussion and still controls its own destiny for a BCS bowl game. The winner of this game could get a boost that carries it through the second half of the year.
Why Auburn might win: Defense. Amid all the troubles the Tigers have faced this fall, the defense has not been one of them. They’re allowing just 13 points a game, and have been equally tough against the run as the pass. Sen’Derrick Marks, Antonio Coleman, and Tez Doolittle are the cornerstones of a terrific defensive line that’ll neutralize West Virginia’s strength and experience on the interior and help keep its offense reeling. The ‘eers haven’t been right since the opener, averaging only 17 points over the last five games.
Why West Virginia might win: The Mountaineers won’t be the only team in Milan Puskar with problems on the offensive side of the ball. Auburn has been a wreck, ranking 107^th nationally in total offense and getting next to nothing from the passing game. West Virginia’s 15^th-ranked scoring defense has allowed one touchdown pass at home all year and will make Burns’ third start of the season a difficult one. LB Mortty Ivy and S John Holmes are microcosms of the Mountaineer defense, swarming to the ball and playing with exceptional range.
Who to watch: Auburn’s ability to turn things around and possibly save Tommy Tuberville’s job rest squarely on the shoulders of Burns, a talented sophomore who is still raw in the passing game. He’ll benefit from an extra week of preparation and from not having to constantly look over his shoulder at Chris Todd. Burns is at his most dangerous when he’s on the move, so look for the Tiger staff to implement a gameplan that maximizes his unique skill set. If nothing else, the change at quarterback has been something the rest of the team has rallied around over the last week.
What will happen: Possibly sensing that Tuberville is in trouble, Auburn will play its best game of the season, getting a great effort from the defense for a pivotal road win. Burns will play sporadically, leaning on backs Ben Tate and Brad Lester to carry the load on offense. Special teams, a strength for both schools, will play a key role throughout the night.
CFN Prediction: Auburn 23 … West Virginia 17 … Line: West Virginia -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 3.5
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 Saturday, October 25

South Florida (6-1) at Louisville (4-2), 3:30 EST
Why to watch: Just about every Big East team not named Syracuse is alive in the conference race, meaning every game going forward could have BCS implications. South Florida remains the highest-rated of the league schools, yet has already lost to Pittsburgh and doesn’t have much margin for error. The Bulls regrouped with a blowout of Syracuse on Saturday, and had an added bonus with the returns of DE George Selvie, NT Terrell McClain, and LB Brouce Mompremier to the starting lineup. While Louisville has played well since gagging in the opener with Kentucky, it hasn’t exactly been through the gauntlet over the last month. A loss to Connecticut has been sandwiched by wins over Tennessee Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, and Middle Tennessee State. If the Cards want to be taken seriously as a contender, they’ll need to knock off South Florida Saturday afternoon.
Why South Florida might win: After a fast start under first-year coordinator Ron English, the Louisville defense has begun to spring leaks. The pass D, in particular, has been suspect, yielding nine touchdown passes and a few too many long balls over the last four games. Matt Grothe will capitalize with the help of a deep and speedy corps of receivers that’s led by A.J. Love, Taurus Johnson, and Jessie Hester. Yeah, the Bulls defense is still pretty good, leading the Big East in yards allowed, but the offense has also been pretty good. It’s tops in the league in scoring and total offense, and displays outstanding balance.
Why Louisville might win: The Cardinal offense has started to click over the last few weeks, getting tremendous production from the ground game to support QB Hunter Cantwell. Victor Anderson, Brock Bolen, and Bilal Powell have all rushed for at least 200 yards this season and offer something a little different to the attack. With C Eric Wood and T George Bussey paving the way, the Louisville offensive line will not be intimidated by that heralded South Florida front line.
Who to watch: The Bulls are a completely different team when Selvie and McClain are healthy and on the field. Not only are they disruptive forces that can change the tenor of the game, but they make everyone around them better. With so much attention going to Selvie, on particular, it frees things up for linemen Craig Marshall, Jarriett Buie, and Aaron Harris to make plays. If South Florida is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, Louisville doesn’t stand a chance.
What will happen: Louisville’s recent run of success has been partially due to its competition. That’s about to end with South Florida coming to town. The Bulls will expose the Cardinal defense behind Grothe and RB Mike Ford, while getting a couple of key turnovers from the defense. By early in the second half, Louisville will be in catch-up mode, which is no way to perforate the USF defense.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 30 … Louisville 21 … Line: USF -5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 3
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Rutgers (2-5) at Pittsburgh (5-1), 3:30 EST
Why to watch: Maybe this Pittsburgh team is for real after all. It’s not as if whipping Navy stamps the Panthers as a contender, but deep down, didn’t you expect them to stumble on Saturday in Annapolis against a red-hot Midshipmen team? No one could blame you if you did. Instead of following its track record, however, Pitt was in the rocking chair by halftime. Now it’s back to Big East play, where the Panthers will try to protect their spot atop the league. Rutgers is coming off just its second win of the season, but it was an emotional one that could provide a springboard for the final five games. Although it wasn’t pretty, when Tony Ciaravino missed the game-winner late in the fourth quarter, the Scarlet Knights finally had something to celebrate.
Why Rutgers might win: A Scarlet Knight defense that was a liability early in September has gradually rounded into a reliable group. Over the last four games, Rutgers has given up just 47 points and has stiffened against the run. S Courtney Greene and linebackers Ryan D’Imperio and Kevin Malast have become the leaders of a tough run D that just got done holding Connecticut’s Donald Brown to his worst game of the season. Next up will be slowing down LeSean McCoy, who won’t get much help from Bill Stull and the passing game.
Why Pittsburgh might win: The revamped Rutgers defense might keep McCoy from going berserk, but he’s still going to get his yards and a touchdown or two when he gets into the red area. The Panther offense won’t have to score too many points to pick up win No. 6 because the Scarlet Knight offense has been atrocious. Remove the Morgan State game, and it’s averaging a mere 13 points a game. Things won’t get any easier against a Pittsburgh defense that leads the Big East in sacks and will make QB Mike Teel’s life miserable.
Who to watch: Teel is going to spend three hours getting to know Pittsburgh’s rising sophomore tandem of Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. They’re big and quick, and likely to give fits to the Rutgers tackles. Teel has limited mobility, which could force the Knights to use draws and misdirections to keep the young ends from living in the backfield. Now that he’s finally healthy, RB Kordell Young might be a nice option. He’s run well the last two weeks, making him the new focal point of the offense.
What will happen: For good reason, Pittsburgh is beginning to turn some skeptics into believers. The Panthers will remain hot, winning their sixth straight game behind a workmanlike 100 yards from McCoy and another solid effort from the defense. Although Rutgers had a nice moment last weekend, this is still a flawed team that’ll have problems moving the ball with any consistency.
CFN Prediction: Pitt 28 … Rutgers 13 … Line: Pitt -9.5
Must See Rating: (5 SNL with Palin – 1 Jose Canseco: Last Shot) … 3.5
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