Big East Fearless Predictions, Dec. 6

Previews and Predictions for the Week 15 Big East Games

  
Big East 
Cincinnati | Connecticut | Louisville | Pittsburgh | Rutgers
South Florida | Syracuse | West Virginia

Big East Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20
- Sept. 27 | Oct. 4 | Oct. 11 | Oct. 18 | Oct. 25 | Nov. 1 | Nov. 8 | Nov. 15
- Nov. 22 | Nov. 29

How are the picks so far? SU: 39-21 ... ATS: 23-29-1

Big East Game of the Week

Pittsburgh (8-3) at Connecticut (7-4), 12:00 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: Pittsburgh took another big step in the right direction under Dave Wannstedt, knocking off rival West Virginia in the second straight Backyard Brawl. A win in East Hartford would land the Panthers a second place finish in the Big East, while improving their chances for a berth in a higher-profile postseason game, such as the Sun Bowl or Gator Bowl. Connecticut comes out of its bye week knowing that the gap in perception between 8-4 and 7-5 is substantial. Always on the stump to improve their reputation across the country, the Huskies will be motivated to take down one of the league’s two ranked teams and leave a positive impression on bowl committees before invitations go in the mail. Since joining the league in 2004, UConn has beaten Pitt in three of their four meetings.
Why Pittsburgh might win: Since hitting a rough patch around Halloween, the Panthers have regrouped on defense to remain one of the league’s top units. That 54-34 loss to Rutgers on Oct. 25 now looks like an anomaly. Pitt is 23^rd nationally against the run, which is a plus considering that’s the only thing Connecticut does well on offense. The Panthers will be able to stack the line with linebackers Scott McKillop and Austin Ransom in order to stop Donald Brown and force the Huskies to beat them with a feeble passing attack. On offense, sophomore RB LeSean McCoy is having the kind of season that’ll make it difficult for him to return to school in 2009.
Why Connecticut might win: The Huskies are basically a carbon copy of the Panthers, living off the running game and a stout defense. They enter this weekend well-rested, especially at quarterback, where Tyler Lorenzen will be starting his third game since returning from an injury. The defense trades all-American candidates for a mistake-free, fundamentally-sound crew that leads the league in yards allowed and is No. 2 in scoring D. Connecticut will bring non-stop pressure from ends Cody Brown and Julius Williams, and linebackers Scott Lutrus and Greg Lloyd, exposing a Pitt line that’s last in the Big East in pass protection.
Who to watch: The most interesting—and pivotal—battle of the afternoon centers around Brown and McCoy, the Big East’s top two rushers, respectively. If either back has trouble finding running room, his team will be doomed. Neither Lorenzen nor Pittsburgh’s Bill Stull has shown an ability to be anything more than a caretaker asked to limit his mistakes and turnovers.
What will happen: Of course, Pittsburgh wants to finish the regular season with a win, but a week after another a tight game with West Virginia will leave the emotional tank a little empty. Connecticut, on the other hand, always gets up for Big East games, especially at home. As is their custom, the Huskies will grind out a win at Rentschler Field behind the running of Brown and the some key stops from the defense.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 20 … Pitt 17 ... Line: Connecticut -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer – 1 Twilight) … 3
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 Thursday, December 4

Louisville (5-6) at Rutgers (6-5), 7:30 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: Although Cincinnati has locked up the Big East championship, there may not be a hotter team in the league than Rutgers. Yup, the same Scarlet Knights, which were on life support at 1-5, have reeled off five straight wins, the last four by no less than 18 points. They’re already bowl-eligible, but can improve their destination with a sixth win in-a-row. At 7-5, the Knights will likely play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. At 6-6, they’ll be relegated to a lesser game, such as the PapaJohns.com Bowl. Louisville is in the midst of a four-game losing streak, its worst stretch in a decade. The Cardinals missed out on a bowl game at 6-6 a year ago, and could suffer a similar fate even with a win in Piscataway this Thursday. In two seasons at the helm, Steve Kragthorpe is feeling the wrath of the locals, who’d grown accustomed to a much better product under Bobby Petrino.
Why Louisville might win: The best way to beat the Rutgers defense is to run right at it. While the Knights made progress in November, they’re also 73^rd nationally against the run and still somewhat soft in the middle of the defense. The Cards have a veteran front wall, led by Eric Wood and George Bussey, and a deep stable of running backs. Victor Anderson, Brock Bolen, and Bilal Powell each offers something a little different and has the ability to wear down the Rutgers D. Defensive coordinator Ron English must also find a way to get into the head of QB Mike Teel, who’s been known to make a ton of unforced errors.
Why Rutgers might win: Everything is clicking for the Scarlet Knights. From offense to defense, this is a completely different team than the one that stumbled out of the gate in September. Over the last four games, Rutgers has averaged 42 points, getting help from the passing attack and ground game, and really cranked up the pass rush on defense. Louisville, on the other hand, has regressed in all facets, showing no signs of being capable of a turnaround. The Cards have had no sacks during the four-game losing streak, which will allow Teel all day to find Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown running free.
Who to watch: Rutgers DT Peter Tverdov has quietly stepped up to have a terrific senior season. A blue-collar worker with few press clippings in the past, he’s been one of the catalysts of the improved defense, collecting a team-high 13 tackles for loss from his inside spot and allowing Jamaal Westerman to move outside to his more natural position.
What will happen: This time of year, bodies in motion tend to stay in motion. Rutgers is soaring to the north and Louisville is plummeting to the south. Neither trend is about to change. The Scarlet Knights will use a national TV audience to showcase how far along they’ve come, pouncing on the Cards with three Teel touchdown passes and three takeaways from the defense.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 35 … Louisville 16 ... Line: Louisville -10.5
Must See Rating: (5 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer – 1 Twilight) … 3
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 Saturday, December 6

South Florida (7-4) at West Virginia (7-4), 8:00 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: Long before these two schools began missing pre-season expectations, this shaped up as a potential winner-take-all game for Big East supremacy. Today? Well, the stakes are quite a bit lower. South Florida and West Virginia will be jockeying for bowl positioning and little else, as Cincinnati celebrates an outright conference championship. The Bulls have been the bigger disappointment of the two, losing four of its last six games after rising all the way to No. 10 in the rankings. There’s feeling of uneasiness surrounding head coach Jim Leavitt and program that has started to underachieve on his watch. The Mountaineers are in the unfamiliar position of playing a borderline meaningless game at the end of the season. West Virginia officially fell out of the league race last Friday, losing to Pittsburgh for the second straight season.
Why South Florida might win: When West Virginia struggles to move the ball on the ground, it rarely wins. The Bulls have one of those defenses that’s capable of bottling up Pat White and Noel Devine, and forcing the Mountaineers into a bunch of third-and-long situations. Despite all of the problems this fall, South Florida still has a rugged front seven that’s responsible for the No. 8 run defense in the country. The defensive line, particularly George Selvie, Jarriett Buie, and Terrell McClain, will get a push up front that prevents the West Virginia playmakers from busting through to the second level.
Why West Virginia might win: Unless Syracuse makes another appearance on the schedule, the South Florida offense is beyond repair. The Bulls attack has simply disappeared over the last month, averaging 16 points in the last four games and getting little help from QB Matt Grothe or the running game. The Mountaineers will keep that trend alive with an underrated defense that’s allowed the fewest points in the Big East. While West Virginia doesn’t have any stars on that side of the ball, it does boast a collection of talented athletes who fly to the ball and create a bunch of turnovers.
Who to watch: West Virginia is planning a White-out for Saturday night in honor of their senior quarterback, who’ll be playing his final game in Morgantown. Although it’s been somewhat lost in an otherwise mediocre season, White will go down as the greatest player in the history of the program, setting a record for rushing yards by a quarterback. The locals have a love affair with No. 5, which will be evident throughout the evening.
What will happen: This is White’s night. And he’s not about to get outplayed by a visiting player. This could be the coldest game in the history of South Florida football, a bad omen when your home is in Tampa. While the West Virginia defense keeps the Bulls dormant on offense, White will deliver a couple of his patented touchdown scampers for the difference on the scoreboard.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 34 … South Florida 23 ... Line: West Virginia -7
Must See Rating: (5 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer – 1 Twilight) … 3
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Cincinnati (10-2) at Hawaii (7-5), 11:30 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: Talk about a strange quirk in scheduling. A week after celebrating the school’s first Big East championship and a berth in the Orange Bowl, Cincinnati will set out on a trip overseas to play in a game that’ll have no bearing on their postseason destination. Is it a bowl game tune-up? A reward for a phenomenal season? Good luck getting your kids motivated for this ultimate sandwich game, Brian Kelly. Hawaii is in a similar situation as this week’s visitors. With Saturday’s victory over Washington State, the Warriors have locked up a berth in the Hawaii Bowl no matter what happens this weekend. Naturally, the program will still be fired up to slap a loss on a mainlander from a major conference for a second straight week.
Why Cincinnati might win: The Bearcats defense is the best Hawaii has faced in a long time. The Warriors have begun to have success on offense, but that’s about to end. Hawaii lives off QB Greg Alexander and the passing game, a bad sign with Cincinnati visiting. Even without CB Mike Mickens, the ‘Cats have a superb, ball-hawking secondary that’s allowed more than one touchdown pass in just one of the last nine games. On offense, QB Tony Pike will have his way with a secondary that’s been repeatedly burned by quality passers.
Why Hawaii might win: Despite all of the preachings about this being a business trip, it’ll be hard for Cincy not to treat it like a vacation. Heck, we’re talking about a bunch of kids that just got done shocking the rest of the Big East. The Warrior defense remains a work-in-progress, but it’s gotten markedly better over the last five games. With the help of DE David Veikune, Hawaii has had 24 sacks and 13 turnovers over that time. Although it’ll still give up some big plays, it’ll also compensate with some game-changing plays of its own. While Alexander will face his stiffest challenge to date, he has been a revelation for the offense, throwing 10 touchdown passes and just one pick since becoming the starter.
Who to watch: Does Hawaii have anyone in the secondary capable of containing receivers Mardy Gilyard and Dominick Goodman? Don’t bank on it. The pair has been getting behind Big East defensive backfields all season, which does not bode well for the Warriors. In an ideal setting for the first time in more than a month, Pike and the passing game is likely to flourish at the expense of a spotty Hawaii pass defense.
What will happen: If Cincinnati has one foot in the sand, it’ll lose this game to a Hawaii, which always gets up for visits from BCS schools. Kelly will be the difference for the Bearcats. A focused disciplinarian, he’ll make sure his kids stop celebrating in time to slip past a Warrior team that still has too many holes on defense to beat the Big East champs.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 31 … Hawaii 21 ... Line: Cincinnati -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer – 1 Twilight) … 2
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