MWC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 13

Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 MWC Games.

Storylines ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC | M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 

- Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Part 2

How are the picks so far? SU: 11-2 ... ATS: 6-2

Mountain West Game of the Week

UCLA (1-0) at BYU (2-0), 3:30 EST, Saturday, September 13
Why to watch: UCLA and BYU will be meeting for the third time in the last 12 months with a lot more at stake than a typical regular season game or a Las Vegas Bowl trophy. Both schools are off to strong starts, the Bruins beating Tennessee in Rick Neuheisel’s debut and the Cougars climbing in the polls with wins over Northern Iowa and Washington. The victory over U-Dub was made possible when Jan Jorgensen blocked an extra point that would have sent the game to overtime, a fact glossed over in the Jake Locker celebration-flag controversy. A second straight win over a Pac-10 team will mean BYU will have cleared two of its biggest obstacles to reaching a BCS bowl game, at least until the dates with TCU and Utah. UCLA hasn’t played since stunning the Volunteers in the overtime thriller, but the team needed the time to work. Was the program simply riding the emotion of the moment, or is it ready to contend for more than a second-rate bowl invitation? This is the game to find out.
Why UCLA might win: Finally, a defense that can truly challenge the BYU offense. The Bruins are outstanding up the middle with tackles Brigham Harwell and Brian Price, and LB Reggie Carter. Few schools match up especially well with the Cougar offensive line, but UCLA is one that’ll hold up well at the point of attack. On defense, BYU still has a lot to prove. If QB Kevin Craft can start the way he finished the Tennessee game, the Bruins will be able to battle back even if they fall behind early.
Why BYU might win: Sure, UCLA can be tough on one-dimensional offenses, but how will it handle an attack that runs the ball as well as it throws it? The Cougars are so tough to defend because they force you to pick your poison. You can focus on QB Max Hall or RB Harvey Unga, but good luck stopping both players. While Hall is No. 3 nationally in total offense and has been picked off just once, Unga is a battering ram with surprisingly quick feet.  Four BYU receivers have already caught at least 10 passes, led by Dennis Pitta’s 21 grabs.
Who to watch: The rebuilt Cougar defense has been just average through two games. One of the exceptions has been LB Matt Bauman, who’s excelling in his first season as a starter. He leads the team with 20 tackles, and as one of the program’s most active defenders, will be watching the UCLA running backs all afternoon. With Bruin star Kahlil Bell out with an ankle injury, Bauman’s job became even easier.           
What will happen: This game won’t be in primetime or in Westwood, so look for UCLA to play a lot closer to the team that was lacked offensive consistency in the first half of Neuheisel’s debut. The Bruins won’t play poorly, but they also won’t have enough punch on offense to match BYU point-for-point, especially in front of a fired up crowd at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Hall will be the hero, dissecting a suspect UCLA secondary.
CFN Prediction: BYU 31 … UCLA 24 ... Line: BYU -8
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 4
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Saturday, September 13

Stanford (1-1) at TCU (2-0), 7:00 EST, The Mountain
Why to watch: TCU has a message for everyone swooning over fellow Mountain West members, BYU and Utah: Don’t forget about us. No, the competition hasn’t exactly been salty, but the Horned Frogs have been borderline perfect in routs of New Mexico and Stephen F. Austin to inch closer to a spot in the Top 25. A win over a Pac-10 team would be a step in the right direction toward garnering more national respect. Stanford was dealt an extra serving of reality by Arizona State Saturday night, getting handed a 41-17 loss. The Cardinal is no doubt building toward a brighter future under Jim Harbaugh, but the spanking in Tempe was proof positive that it has a long way to go before cracking the first division of the Pac-10.
Why Stanford might win: The Horned Frogs have yet to face an attacking, ball-hawking defense like the one arriving in Fort Worth this Saturday. Stanford will give up real estate, but it will also compensate by getting a ton of hits on Andy Dalton and making plays for minus yards. Don’t be fooled by TCU’s 67-point offensive eruption at the expense of Stephen F. Austin last Saturday. It’s offense still lacks the pop to solve a defense like Stanford’s, which gets to the ball quickly and has future pros, such as DE Pannel Egboh and LB Clinton Snyder.
Why TCU might win: When defense is the subject, the Frogs enjoy an edge over the Cardinal. They’ve responded extremely well to the graduations of last year’s top two pass rushers, allowing just 10 points and 329 total yards in two games. The back seven is terrific, which will cause problems for Tavita Pritchard and the punchless Cardinal passing attack. Stanford has thrown just a single touchdown pass, which will allow TCU to focus on RB Toby Gerhart, the lone offensive player who’s done anything so far.   
Who to watch: Oregon State and Arizona State learned that the best way to beat the Stanford defense is over the top. TCU has access to tapes of both of those games. The Frogs still lean on the running of Ryan Christian and Joseph Turner, but will take more shots downfield in the direction of leading receiver Jimmy Young. He’s blossoming as a sophomore, and could have a career day against that flimsy Cardinal secondary.
What will happen: TCU is beginning to play its brand of football, running the ball with authority and shutting down opponents on defense. Before Stanford can beat that type of team on the road, it’ll have to do a much better job of throwing the ball and stopping the other team’s passer.
CFN Prediction: TCU 27 … Stanford 16 ... Line: TCU -13
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 2.5
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North Dakota State (2-0) at Wyoming (1-1), 3:00 EST
Why to watch: After getting embarrassed by Air Force, 23-3, a week ago, the Wyoming program and head coach Joe Glenn are already staring at a crossroads game in the season. With their first three games in Laramie, anything less than a 2-1 start will torpedo any chance the Cowboys have of reaching their 2008 goals. And as if things couldn’t get more complicated, here comes North Dakota State, the top-ranked FCS program that’s itching for its fourth win in the last five meetings with FBS schools. Even injuries to some key starters haven’t kept the Bison from steamrolling Austin Peay and Central Connecticut State by an average of five touchdowns in the first two games.
Why North Dakota State might win: Much of the program that won 10 games, including at Minnesota and Central Michigan, is back, so forget about the Bison being intimidated by Wyoming. In fact, you can argue that the Cowboys are the ones that’ll be tight on Saturday. North Dakota State is a balanced, no-frills offensive machine that’s already produced 10 touchdowns and almost 1,000 yards of offense. QB Nick Mertens has gone 31-of-41 for 490 yards, six touchdowns, and just one pick, dismissing any doubts in his first year as the starter.
Why Wyoming might win: The one shining light for the Cowboys has been the play of the defense, which is capable of slowing down the Bison attack. They’ve only allowed 43 points to Ohio and Air Force, thanks in large part to one of the toughest defensive lines in the Mountain West. DT John Fletcher, NG Fred Givens, and DE Mitch Unrein form a rock solid unit that’ll control the line of scrimmage and keep the North Dakota State runners from reaching the second line of defense. Wyoming is expected to dodge Bison All-American RB Tyler Roehl, who’s still recovering from a high ankle sprain.
Who to watch: Even without Roehl, North Dakota State is exactly destitute or inexperienced in the backfield. The brunt of the load will fall on junior Pat Paschall, who rushed for 530 yards and five touchdowns last year, and is averaging almost seven yards a carry for his career.     
What will happen: Although North Dakota State won’t score points as if it’s a Missouri Valley Conference game, it’ll get enough to zoom past a struggling Wyoming team that has all kinds of problems on offense. This is like a bowl game for the Bison, which isn’t far behind the Cowboys in terms of overall talent.
 CFN Prediction: North Dakota State 27 … Wyoming 24 ... Line: No Line
 Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 2
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Air Force (2-0) at Houston (1-1), 3:30 EST, CSTV
Why to watch: This weekend’s meeting at Robertson Stadium will be the first between Air Force and Houston. The Cougars have split their first two games, getting by Oklahoma State, 56-37, in Stillwater last Saturday. While Kevin Sumlin’s new spread offense has been surging with Case Keenum at the controls, Houston’s upside will be limited if the defense can’t slow down decent offenses. The Falcons have opened with wins over Southern Utah and Wyoming, which is doubly impressive considering how many starters from last season are being replaced. The antithesis of this week’s opponent, Air Force has been leaning on an underrated defense until the offense gets on track. A 3-0 start would set the Academy up nicely for a run at a second straight bowl berth.
Why Air Force might win: Although the Cougars will present unique challenges, the Falcon D appears up to the challenge. Air Force has yielded just 10 points in two games, including a complete effort last week in Laramie. It’s a physical, well-coached group that’s getting outstanding all-around play from S Chris Thomas and DE Jake Paulson. Houston will continue to attack on offense, but it’s going to earn every yard it gets on Saturday.
Why Houston might win: The Cougars would like to turn this game into a track meet. If they’re successful, Air Force is not where it needs to be to keep up. The Houston offense is cooking behind Keenum, leading the country in passing after two games, while going 10-for-10 in red zone opportunities. As good as the Falcons have been on defense, slowing down an attack with this much speed and complexity is an entirely different challenge.
Who to watch: Entering the season, Mark Hafner was a good tight end for the Cougars. In this offense, however, he’s blossomed into a terrific wide receiver, manning the inside Y slot. He already has 15 catches for 182 yards and three touchdowns, and will be a handful for the Falcon linebackers.
What will happen: In a study of complete opposites, Air Force will try to control the clock with a disciplined ground game, while Houston wants to get up and down the field as quickly as possible. Both will have their moments, but the Cougars will eke out the win with a long drive for the go-ahead score late in the game.
CFN Prediction: Houston 34 … Air Force 27 ... Line: Houston -4.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) … 3
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