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Houston (1-2) at Colorado State
(1-1),
3:30 EST
Why to watch: While
Houston is scoring points in
bunches, the defense has been
non-existent, the main reason
it’s off to a 1-2 start in Kevin
Sumlin’s first season. Losing to
Oklahoma State was no surprise,
but getting bounced by
rebuilding Air Force was a sign
that the Cougars will have
trouble winning the West
division of Conference USA. Of
course, it didn’t help the team
that Hurricane Ike was sweeping
through Houston and forced the
“home” game to be moved to SMU’s
Ford Stadium in Dallas. Colorado
State will be looking for some
answers as it comes out of its
bye week. The Rams are still
adjusting to a rookie head coach
of their own, Steve Fairchild,
and didn’t look sharp in a loss
to Colorado or a three-point win
over Sacramento State.
Expectations remain modest
around Fort Collins, and no one
is expecting an overnight
turnaround.
Why Houston might win: A
few misfires aside, the Cougar
offense has been incendiary,
averaging 40 points and 544
yards through the first three
games. They’ll spread out the
field with four and five wide
receivers, putting tons of
pressure on a suspect Colorado
State pass defense. Houston QB
Case Keenum has been doing quite
an impression of David Klingler
and Andre Ware, leading the team
in rushing and throwing 13
touchdowns to just one pick.
Why Colorado State might win:
Houston has proven it can score,
but can it stop anyone? That was
a rhetorical question. Forget
the game with Southern, which
meant nothing in the picture. In
the losses to Oklahoma State and
Air Force, the Cougars were
tagged for more than 1,000
yards, most of it coming on the
ground. The Rams have a veteran
offensive line and two backs,
Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell,
who are capable of keeping the
Houston offense on the sidelines
for long periods of time.
Who to watch: Mark
Hafner’s transition from tight
end to wide receiver in the new
Houston offense is going better
than anyone on the staff could
have imagined. He won’t frighten
opposing players with his speed
or leaping ability, but he has
great hands and a knack for
finding soft spots in the
defenses. He’s already caught 22
passes, six which have gone for
six.
What will happen: It’s
going to come down to the
Houston passing attack versus
the Colorado State running game.
The Cougars rate an edge because
of how well Keenum has been
performing, but the outcome of
this game will be in doubt deep
into the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Houston
42 … Colorado State 31 ...
Line: Houston -6
Must See Rating: (5
Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest
Loser: Families) … 2
Wyoming (2-1) at BYU (3-0),
3:00 EST, The Mountain
Why to watch: Although
BYU and East Carolina don’t play
this season, they’re waging a
rather interesting cold war for
the hearts and minds of BCS
buster fans. The Pirates opened
with wins over Virginia Tech and
West Virginia. The Cougars have
countered with back-to-back
victories over Pac-10 teams,
including last Saturday’s 59-0
demolition of UCLA. Touché. For
its historically one-sided
effort, BYU moved up a few
notches to No. 14 in the AP
poll, and will be favored to
roll in at least the next three
games. The good news for Wyoming
is it’s 2-1. The bad news is
that the Cowboys are barely
getting by, and the rest of the
schedule is heavy with tough
road games. Not since 1987 have
they won a game in Provo.
Why Wyoming might win:
Although it doesn’t appear
anyone is going to stop
Max Hall and the BYU offense,
the Cowboys are capable of
slowing it down. They’ve yet to
allow more than 23 points in a
game, and have been particularly
feisty in pass defense. Up
front, linemen Mitch Unrein,
John Fletcher, and Fred Givens
will hold up well against the
hulking Cougar line, keeping
Hall from having all day to find
his myriad targets.
Why BYU might win: No,
the Cougars won’t score 59
points and Hall won’t throw
another seven touchdown passes,
but neither will be necessary. A
mere two touchdowns will be
enough to outscore a Cowboy
offense that’s been impotent and
doesn’t have the passing game to
mount a comeback when it
inevitably falls behind. Oh, and
lost in last week’s pummeling of
UCLA was the fact that BYU
pitched its first shutout since
1977 over a school from a major
conference.
Who to watch: The BYU
defense, which began the season
with so many new starters, is
beginning to gel around its
veterans, such as LB David Nixon
and DE Jan Jorgensen. With those
two providing the physical and
emotional leadership, it’s
allowing others, like DE Ian
Dulan, and linebackers Coleby
Clawson and Matt Bauman, to
evolve into steady contributors.
What will happen: On the
heels of such a poignant win
over UCLA, don’t be shocked if
BYU suffers a first-quarter
hangover. It won’t, however,
make a difference in the final
score. The Cougars will pick up
the pace on offense long before
halftime, cruising to a
four-touchdown victory.
CFN Prediction:
BYU 40 … Wyoming 13 ... Line:
BYU -29
Must See Rating: (5
Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest
Loser: Families) … 2
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New Mexico (1-2) at Tulsa (2-0),
7:05 EST
Why to watch: While
everyone justifiably fawns over
BYU and East Carolina, Tulsa
must be wondering what it needs
to do to get more pub as a
possible BCS buster. An
impressive win over a ranked
opponent would be a nice start,
but the 2008 schedule isn’t
going to afford the Hurricane
that opportunity. Instead, it’ll
have to settle for bludgeoning
weaker schools and hoping to
emulate last year’s Hawaii
program. Fresh off a
building-block win over Arizona,
New Mexico will be Tulsa’s
stiffest test this month. The
Lobos are breaking in new
starters everywhere, but beating
the Wildcats for a second
straight year could be the kind
of game that turns a season
around.
Why New Mexico might win:
The dirty little secret about
Tulsa is that the defense is
going to struggle all year long.
The Hurricane didn’t face a
quality offense in the first two
games, yet is 110th
nationally against the run and
97th in total
defense. If UAB and North Texas
can move the ball on the ground,
Lobo RB Rodney Ferguson might
have a career day. He leads the
Mountain West in rushing, and
has the grinder’s mentality to
extend drives and control the
clock for the Lobos.
Why Tulsa might win: Paul
Smith may no longer be with the
program, but the Hurricane
offense isn’t skipping a beat.
His replacement behind center,
David Johnson, has tossed nine
touchdowns without a pick and
leads the country in passing
efficiency. New Mexico corners
DeAndre Wright and Glover Quin
are terrific, but Tulsa has too
many playmakers for the defense
to stop. On a given Saturday,
any of five or six Hurricane
skill position players is
capable of being the offensive
star.
Who to watch: Wright or
Quin versus Tulsa homerun hitter
Brennan Marion will be one of
the best games-within-the-game
at Skelly Stadium. Marion has
picked up where he left off last
season, turning his first eight
catches into 232 yards and a
touchdown. Even when he’s not
making the play, he’s opening up
space for the other Hurricane
receivers.
What will happen: New
Mexico will score. Tulsa will
score more. The Hurricane will
be dragged into plenty of
shootouts this fall, but has the
offensive firepower to survive.
Although Johnson will throw his
first interceptions of the
season, he’ll compensate with
three touchdown passes.
CFN Prediction:
Tulsa 38 … New Mexico 34 ...
Line: Tulsa -10.5
Must See Rating: (5
Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest
Loser: Families) … 2.5
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TCU (3-0) at SMU (1-2),
8:00 EST, CSTV
Why to watch: TCU and SMU
renew their long-standing
rivalry for the Iron Skillet
that began in 1915. While BYU
and Utah are receiving most of
the national attention among
Mountain West programs, the
Horned Frogs are off to their
third 3-0 start in the last six
years and are a win or two away
from earning a spot on the tail
end of the Top 25. Last week’s
17-point win over Stanford
helped bolster a resume that
also includes routs of New
Mexico and Stephen F. Austin. As
expected, the Mustangs are a
work-in-progress capable of
rising up and biting someone,
but still a long way from
Conference USA contention. In
what could be a preview of this
week’s game, they provided
little resistance last week in a
43-7 loss to heavily-favored
Texas Tech.
Why TCU might win: The
Frogs are doing what they do
best under Gary Patterson,
running the ball with authority
and playing sound defense. SMU’s
117th-ranked defense
doesn’t have the size or depth
to contend with the TCU
offensive line or a
backfield-by-committee that
includes Ryan Christian and
Joseph Turner. QB Andy Dalton
hasn’t had to extend himself as
a passer, but is second on the
team with 163 yards and four
touchdowns on the ground.
Why SMU might win: The
Mustangs’ best—and only—chance
of authoring upsets this season
will revolve around a
run-and-shoot offense that’s
foreign to most opposing
defenses. While the numbers will
be sporadic, QB Bo Levi Mitchell
is learning every week, and has
a couple of terrific receivers
in Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick
Robinson. The two have combined
for 41 receptions and nine
touchdowns, and will provide a
unique challenge for the TCU
defensive backfield.
Who to watch: DE Jerry
Hughes and S Steven Coleman are
two of the main reasons TCU lead
the country in turnover margin.
While Hughes has three fumble
recoveries, Coleman has three
picks, making for an awful
matchup for an SMU team that’s
turned the ball over 10 times in
its two meetings with FBS teams.
What will happen: TCU is
on a roll that’s not about to be
stopped SMU, even with Oklahoma
lurking on the schedule next
week. The Frogs will dominate
the turnover margin and rush for
more than 250 yards en route to
another blowout win
CFN Prediction:
TCU 47 … SMU 13 ... Line:
TCY -27.5
Must See Rating: (5
Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest
Loser: Families) … 1.5
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Iowa State (2-1) at
UNLV (2-1),
9 EST The Mtn.
Why to watch: These two
played two years ago with Iowa
State winning 16-10 in Ames, Now
it’ll make the trip to Vegas
with each program in far better
shape than they were two years
ago. The Cyclones are coming off
a 17-5 drubbing from Iowa, but
they’ve been decent defensively
and put up decent offensive
numbers in wins over South
Dakota State and Kent State.
They don’t have to start the Big
12 season until October when
Kansas comes to town, but they
could use this win to keep bowl
hopes alive. UNLV went from
being a lame-duck program, with
head coach Mike Sanford on a hot
seat, to an interesting Mountain
West option after stunning
Arizona State in a 23-20
overtime win. With six home
games left in the final nine
games, and with the offense
finally starting to click a
little bit after years of
mediocrity, the chance is there
for the Rebels to finally turn a
corner. A win over the Cyclones
would prove the ASU win wasn’t a
fluke.
Why Iowa State might win:
The Cyclone skill players should
have plenty of time to operate.
The Iowa State offensive line
struggled with the great Iowa D
line, but it’s been solid for
the most part so far. UNLV
doesn’t generate too much
pressure on the defensive front,
even though it came up with two
sacks against ASU last week.
Iowa State’s line should give
the quarterbacks time to work,
while it should push around the
Rebel defense when it comes time
to power the ball.
Why UNLV might win: Iowa
State doesn’t have the
linebackers to handle the UNLV
running game. Whether it’s Frank
Summers moving the ball up the
middle or QB Omar Clayton
working wide, the Rebels should
be able to mix it up like Kent
State was able to. The Golden
Flashes ran for 243 yards
against ISU while also throwing
for three scores. KSU lost
48-28, but it moved the ball.
Who to watch: It was a
long, drawn out process this
off-season to come up with the
UNLV starting quarterback, with
Clayton battling with Travis
Dixon for the job, but the
coaching staff made the right
choice. Clayton, a sophomore has
yet to throw an interception
while completing 61% of his
throws for 542 yards and six
touchdowns. He’s not flashy
running the ball, but he can
move when needed. He didn’t
blink against ASU last week in
what should go down as his
breakthrough performance.
What will happen: UNLV
will be fired up after last
week’s big win, but Iowa State’s
running game and offensive line
will be too effective in the
second half. The Rebels won’t
make many mistakes, but they
won’t force enough to get the
Cyclones off the field.
CFN Prediction: Iowa
State 28 … UNLV 23 ... Line:
UNLV -2.5
Must See Rating: (5
Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest
Loser: Families) … 3
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