MWC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 20

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 17, 2008


Previews and Predictions for the Week 4 MWC Games.


Storylines
ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC
| M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 

How are the picks so far? SU: 15-6 ... ATS: 8-7

Mountain West Game of the Week

Utah (3-0) at Air Force (3-0), 4:00 EST
Why to watch: Utah was expected to compete for a Mountain West championship this season. Air Force? Not so much. The Falcons appeared to be in full-fledged rebuilding mode after losing so many key players, yet have opened with three wins, including the last two as a road underdog. All of a sudden, the academy is right back in bowl contention and a darkhorse in the conference. Someone start sizing head coach Troy Calhoun for a promotion. Since winning in Ann Arbor on opening day, Utah hasn’t been tested in easy wins over UNLV and Utah State. That’ll change this weekend in Colorado. The No. 20 Utes lost to Air Force a year ago, and recognize there’s little margin for error in the ultra-competitive Mountain West.
Why Utah might win: While Brian Johnson and the offense get most of the attention, it’s the Ute defense which has been playing beyond expectations. The unit ranks No. 8 in the country and has been a brick wall against the run, Air Force’s staple on offense. DE Paul Kruger is playing like an All-America candidate and the rebuilt corps of linebackers has been fantastic at stepping up and shutting down running lanes. If the Falcons can’t move the ball on the ground, QB Shea Smith and the nation’s worst passing attack will implode.
Why Air Force might win: If the Utah defense has been good, the Air Force D has been an unbridled revelation. A resourceful group, it’s yielded just 10 points in the first half of games this season. Don’t be fooled by Houston’s production a week ago, most of which came after the Falcons had built a 31-7 second-half cushion. Jake Paulson is Air Force’s answer to Kruger, a high-motor defensive end who leads the nation with six sacks. Most of the Utes’ gaudy offensive numbers have come against UNLV and Utah State. The no-name Falcon defense poses a much tougher challenge.
Who to watch: When Utah runs the ball effectively, it’s very tough to corral. Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack are big downhill runners who are going to present problems for an Air Force defense that isn’t very big up front. If the Utes rush for more than 200 yards, as they’ve done in the last two weeks, the outcome won’t be in doubt in the final 15 minutes.
What will happen: Air Force is a plucky, well-coached program that won’t go away without a fight. However, it lacks the overall talent, depth, and size to upset a ranked Utah team without any glaring weaknesses. The Utes will use their power running game and offensive balance to pull away late, earning a hard-fought league win on the road.

CFN Prediction: Utah 26 … Air Force 17 ... Line: Utah -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) … 3
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections   

Saturday, September 20

Houston (1-2) at Colorado State (1-1), 3:30 EST
Why to watch: While Houston is scoring points in bunches, the defense has been non-existent, the main reason it’s off to a 1-2 start in Kevin Sumlin’s first season. Losing to Oklahoma State was no surprise, but getting bounced by rebuilding Air Force was a sign that the Cougars will have trouble winning the West division of Conference USA. Of course, it didn’t help the team that Hurricane Ike was sweeping through Houston and forced the “home” game to be moved to SMU’s Ford Stadium in Dallas. Colorado State will be looking for some answers as it comes out of its bye week. The Rams are still adjusting to a rookie head coach of their own, Steve Fairchild, and didn’t look sharp in a loss to Colorado or a three-point win over Sacramento State. Expectations remain modest around Fort Collins, and no one is expecting an overnight turnaround.
Why Houston might win: A few misfires aside, the Cougar offense has been incendiary, averaging 40 points and 544 yards through the first three games. They’ll spread out the field with four and five wide receivers, putting tons of pressure on a suspect Colorado State pass defense. Houston QB Case Keenum has been doing quite an impression of David Klingler and Andre Ware, leading the team in rushing and throwing 13 touchdowns to just one pick. 
Why Colorado State might win: Houston has proven it can score, but can it stop anyone? That was a rhetorical question. Forget the game with Southern, which meant nothing in the picture. In the losses to Oklahoma State and Air Force, the Cougars were tagged for more than 1,000 yards, most of it coming on the ground. The Rams have a veteran offensive line and two backs, Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell, who are capable of keeping the Houston offense on the sidelines for long periods of time.  
Who to watch: Mark Hafner’s transition from tight end to wide receiver in the new Houston offense is going better than anyone on the staff could have imagined. He won’t frighten opposing players with his speed or leaping ability, but he has great hands and a knack for finding soft spots in the defenses. He’s already caught 22 passes, six which have gone for six. 
What will happen: It’s going to come down to the Houston passing attack versus the Colorado State running game. The Cougars rate an edge because of how well Keenum has been performing, but the outcome of this game will be in doubt deep into the fourth quarter.        
CFN Prediction: Houston 42 … Colorado State 31 ... Line: Houston -6
Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) … 2

Wyoming (2-1) at BYU (3-0), 3:00 EST, The Mountain
Why to watch: Although BYU and East Carolina don’t play this season, they’re waging a rather interesting cold war for the hearts and minds of BCS buster fans. The Pirates opened with wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The Cougars have countered with back-to-back victories over Pac-10 teams, including last Saturday’s 59-0 demolition of UCLA. Touché. For its historically one-sided effort, BYU moved up a few notches to No. 14 in the AP poll, and will be favored to roll in at least the next three games. The good news for Wyoming is it’s 2-1. The bad news is that the Cowboys are barely getting by, and the rest of the schedule is heavy with tough road games. Not since 1987 have they won a game in Provo.
Why Wyoming might win: Although it doesn’t appear anyone is going to stop Max Hall and the BYU offense, the Cowboys are capable of slowing it down. They’ve yet to allow more than 23 points in a game, and have been particularly feisty in pass defense. Up front, linemen Mitch Unrein, John Fletcher, and Fred Givens will hold up well against the hulking Cougar line, keeping Hall from having all day to find his myriad targets.
Why BYU might win: No, the Cougars won’t score 59 points and Hall won’t throw another seven touchdown passes, but neither will be necessary. A mere two touchdowns will be enough to outscore a Cowboy offense that’s been impotent and doesn’t have the passing game to mount a comeback when it inevitably falls behind. Oh, and lost in last week’s pummeling of UCLA was the fact that BYU pitched its first shutout since 1977 over a school from a major conference.
Who to watch: The BYU defense, which began the season with so many new starters, is beginning to gel around its veterans, such as LB David Nixon and DE Jan Jorgensen. With those two providing the physical and emotional leadership, it’s allowing others, like DE Ian Dulan, and linebackers Coleby Clawson and Matt Bauman, to evolve into steady contributors.
What will happen: On the heels of such a poignant win over UCLA, don’t be shocked if BYU suffers a first-quarter hangover. It won’t, however, make a difference in the final score. The Cougars will pick up the pace on offense long before halftime, cruising to a four-touchdown victory.

CFN Prediction: BYU 40 … Wyoming 13 ... Line: BYU -29
Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) … 2
 
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections   

New Mexico (1-2) at Tulsa (2-0), 7:05 EST
Why to watch: While everyone justifiably fawns over BYU and East Carolina, Tulsa must be wondering what it needs to do to get more pub as a possible BCS buster. An impressive win over a ranked opponent would be a nice start, but the 2008 schedule isn’t going to afford the Hurricane that opportunity. Instead, it’ll have to settle for bludgeoning weaker schools and hoping to emulate last year’s Hawaii program. Fresh off a building-block win over Arizona, New Mexico will be Tulsa’s stiffest test this month. The Lobos are breaking in new starters everywhere, but beating the Wildcats for a second straight year could be the kind of game that turns a season around.
Why New Mexico might win: The dirty little secret about Tulsa is that the defense is going to struggle all year long. The Hurricane didn’t face a quality offense in the first two games, yet is 110th nationally against the run and 97th in total defense. If UAB and North Texas can move the ball on the ground, Lobo RB Rodney Ferguson might have a career day. He leads the Mountain West in rushing, and has the grinder’s mentality to extend drives and control the clock for the Lobos.
Why Tulsa might win: Paul Smith may no longer be with the program, but the Hurricane offense isn’t skipping a beat. His replacement behind center, David Johnson, has tossed nine touchdowns without a pick and leads the country in passing efficiency. New Mexico corners DeAndre Wright and Glover Quin are terrific, but Tulsa has too many playmakers for the defense to stop. On a given Saturday, any of five or six Hurricane skill position players is capable of being the offensive star.
Who to watch: Wright or Quin versus Tulsa homerun hitter Brennan Marion will be one of the best games-within-the-game at Skelly Stadium. Marion has picked up where he left off last season, turning his first eight catches into 232 yards and a touchdown. Even when he’s not making the play, he’s opening up space for the other Hurricane receivers.
What will happen: New Mexico will score. Tulsa will score more. The Hurricane will be dragged into plenty of shootouts this fall, but has the offensive firepower to survive. Although Johnson will throw his first interceptions of the season, he’ll compensate with three touchdown passes. 
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 38 … New Mexico 34 ... Line: Tulsa -10.5
Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) … 2.5
 
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections   

TCU (3-0) at SMU (1-2), 8:00 EST, CSTV
Why to watch: TCU and SMU renew their long-standing rivalry for the Iron Skillet that began in 1915. While BYU and Utah are receiving most of the national attention among Mountain West programs, the Horned Frogs are off to their third 3-0 start in the last six years and are a win or two away from earning a spot on the tail end of the Top 25. Last week’s 17-point win over Stanford helped bolster a resume that also includes routs of New Mexico and Stephen F. Austin. As expected, the Mustangs are a work-in-progress capable of rising up and biting someone, but still a long way from Conference USA contention. In what could be a preview of this week’s game, they provided little resistance last week in a 43-7 loss to heavily-favored Texas Tech.
Why TCU might win: The Frogs are doing what they do best under Gary Patterson, running the ball with authority and playing sound defense. SMU’s 117th-ranked defense doesn’t have the size or depth to contend with the TCU offensive line or a backfield-by-committee that includes Ryan Christian and Joseph Turner. QB Andy Dalton hasn’t had to extend himself as a passer, but is second on the team with 163 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Why SMU might win: The Mustangs’ best—and only—chance of authoring upsets this season will revolve around a run-and-shoot offense that’s foreign to most opposing defenses. While the numbers will be sporadic, QB Bo Levi Mitchell is learning every week, and has a couple of terrific receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson. The two have combined for 41 receptions and nine touchdowns, and will provide a unique challenge for the TCU defensive backfield.
Who to watch: DE Jerry Hughes and S Steven Coleman are two of the main reasons TCU lead the country in turnover margin. While Hughes has three fumble recoveries, Coleman has three picks, making for an awful matchup for an SMU team that’s turned the ball over 10 times in its two meetings with FBS teams.
What will happen: TCU is on a roll that’s not about to be stopped SMU, even with Oklahoma lurking on the schedule next week. The Frogs will dominate the turnover margin and rush for more than 250 yards en route to another blowout win

CFN Prediction: TCU 47 … SMU 13 ... Line: TCY -27.5
Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) … 1.5
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections   

Iowa State (2-1) at UNLV (2-1), 9 EST  The Mtn.
Why to watch: These two played two years ago with Iowa State winning 16-10 in Ames, Now it’ll make the trip to Vegas with each program in far better shape than they were two years ago. The Cyclones are coming off a 17-5 drubbing from Iowa, but they’ve been decent defensively and put up decent offensive numbers in wins over South Dakota State and Kent State. They don’t have to start the Big 12 season until October when Kansas comes to town, but they could use this win to keep bowl hopes alive. UNLV went from being a lame-duck program, with head coach Mike Sanford on a hot seat, to an interesting Mountain West option after stunning Arizona State in a 23-20 overtime win. With six home games left in the final nine games, and with the offense finally starting to click a little bit after years of mediocrity, the chance is there for the Rebels to finally turn a corner. A win over the Cyclones would prove the ASU win wasn’t a fluke.
Why Iowa State might win
: The Cyclone skill players should have plenty of time to operate. The Iowa State offensive line struggled with the great Iowa D line, but it’s been solid for the most part so far. UNLV doesn’t generate too much pressure on the defensive front, even though it came up with two sacks against ASU last week. Iowa State’s line should give the quarterbacks time to work, while it should push around the Rebel defense when it comes time to power the ball.
Why UNLV might win: Iowa State doesn’t have the linebackers to handle the UNLV running game. Whether it’s Frank Summers moving the ball up the middle or QB Omar Clayton working wide, the Rebels should be able to mix it up like Kent State was able to. The Golden Flashes ran for 243 yards against ISU while also throwing for three scores. KSU lost 48-28, but it moved the ball.
Who to watch: It was a long, drawn out process this off-season to come up with the UNLV starting quarterback, with Clayton battling with Travis Dixon for the job, but the coaching staff made the right choice. Clayton, a sophomore has yet to throw an interception while completing 61% of his throws for 542 yards and six touchdowns. He’s not flashy running the ball, but he can move when needed. He didn’t blink against ASU last week in what should go down as his breakthrough performance.
What will happen: UNLV will be fired up after last week’s big win, but Iowa State’s running game and offensive line will be too effective in the second half. The Rebels won’t make many mistakes, but they won’t force enough to get the Cyclones off the field.
CFN Prediction: Iowa State 28 … UNLV 23 ... Line: UNLV -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) … 3
 
- Click here to receive ATS Consultants FREE selections