MWC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 27

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 25, 2008


Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 MWC Games.


Storylines
ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA
MAC
| M-West | Pac 10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20 

- Big 12 Week Five Predictions


How are the picks so far? SU: 19-8 ... ATS: 10-11

Mountain West Game of the Week

TCU (4-0) at Oklahoma (3-0), 7:00 EST Fox Sports
Why to watch: September 3rd, 2005. Oklahoma was coming off a loss to USC for the 2004 national title and had won 26 of its previous 29 games. TCU opened up the 2005 season by pulling off a shocking 17-10 win. That was only Oklahoma’s second home loss since 1998 (a 16-13 gaffe to Oklahoma State at the end of 2001 was the other), and it was the first loss to a team from outside the BCS since a 51-31 loss to San Diego State in 1996. This year, TCU is flying under the Mountain West radar compared to BYU and Utah, but it has the nation’s leading defense and leads the nation in run defense. It hasn’t played a top-notch offense yet, but now it’ll get its chance to show whether or not it really is ready to handle the big boys. Oklahoma has arguably been the nation’s most dominant team over the first few weeks, winning its first three games by a combined score of 164 to 42. It’s the nation’s best scoring offense vs. the nation’s No. 3 scoring defense. It’s the Mountain West getting a shot at another big feather in its cap after spending the first few weeks ripping up the Pac 10. It should be an interesting tell-tale battle no matter what happens.
Why TCU might win: The lines. TCU doesn’t have the offensive and defensive lines that Oklahoma has, but they’re playing extremely well. The offensive front has allowed just three sacks in four games, while the defensive front has come up with a whipping 36 tackles for loss and is eighth in the nation in sacks with 14. This is a typical, aggressive, productive Gary Patterson defense that swarms to the ball and gets to the quarterback. If nothing else, this will be the most pressure OU QB Sam Bradford has faced all season.
Why Oklahoma might win: It’s not like TCU has faced a brick wall of a run defense. The Horned Frog running game has been impressive so far, but the best run defense it has dealt with is …. New Mexico? The TCU passing attack hasn’t had to do much, and it hasn’t exactly been efficient even with everyone keying on the ground game. You can’t beat Oklahoma if you’re one-dimensional. TCU might be fourth in the nation in tackles for loss, but OU leads the country averaging ten per game.
Who to watch: TCU quickly reloaded on its defensive front with Matt Panfil and Cody Moore going from out of the spotlight to superstar status. Panfil, a 232-pound senior end has tremendous quickness and has blown up now that he’s the No. 1 guy. He has come up with 3.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss, while Moore, a tremendously quick tackle, has cranked out 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. These two are disruptive forces who have to play big roles to pressure Bradford.
What will happen: TCU will start out well for a few drives and should keep OU in check for a quarter, and then the Sooner offense will be the Sooner offense. TCU’s passing game won’t be able to do enough to offset the lack of a running game, while OU will go on a big run for about ten minutes to put the game away.
CFN Prediction
: Oklahoma 27 … TCU 10 ... Line: Oklahoma -17.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 4
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Saturday, September 27

Bowling Green (1-2) at Wyoming (2-2), 4:00 EST, The Mountain
Why to watch: Bowling Green had a week off to try and find the formula that led to an opening day upset of Pittsburgh. Since then, the Falcons have played uninspired and sloppy in double-digit losses to Minnesota and Boise State. The program’s recent performance hasn’t changed its goal of winning the MAC, but it better turn things around quickly because league play begins in a week. Wyoming was able to measure just how far it is from the peak of the Mountain West, losing 44-0 to BYU. The Cowboys aren’t winning the league, but bowl eligibility would do wonders for the program’s confidence and head coach Joe Glenn’s job security. Keeping that dream alive requires winning home games versus beatable opponents.
Why Bowling Green might win: The Falcons have problems with quality passers. Fortunately, they don’t face one this week. Dax Crum and the Wyoming passing game have been abysmal this year, going three straight games without a touchdown pass. The entire offense is suffering from poor pass protection and the lack of an aerial game. Bowling Green DE Diyral Briggs is a safe bet to add to his MAC-best total of five sacks.
Why Wyoming might win: Bowling Green hasn’t exactly been lighting it up on offense either. The Falcons have gotten progressively worse, averaging just 17 points a game and turning the ball over with frightening regularity. Things won’t get easier against a Cowboy defense that was playing great before running into the BYU buzzsaw. Like most games, it’ll be won up front, where Wyoming the edge with DE Mitch Unrein, DT John Fletcher, and NG Fred Givens.
Who to watch: Crum will start the game for Wyoming, but he has no guarantees that he’ll finish it. In fact, Glenn is keeping his quarterback on a very tight leash after watching him produce mediocre results four weeks in-a-row. Casey Bramlet ran out of eligibility a long time ago, so it’s not as if the coach is sitting on a hidden gem in backups Karsten Sween and Chris Stutzriem.
What will happen: With neither team executing well on offense, it’ll be a sloppy game that could be decided by turnovers or one big play on special teams. The Cowboys usually save their best for Laramie, and the defense offers hope, especially as Bowling Green struggles to protect the ball. It’ll be tight throughout with RB Devin Moore scoring the difference-maker in the final quarter.       
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 21 … Bowling Green 17 ... Line: Bowling Green -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 1.5
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Colorado State (2-1) at California (2-1), 6:00 EST
Why to watch: Cal has had a week off to get beyond the Maryland game and fix some of the myriad problems that led to an unforeseen 35-27 loss in College Park. The Bears are chalking it up to a long trip and an uncharacteristically bad day for the offensive line, claiming they’re closer to the team that beat Michigan State and dressed down Washington State. They’ll be carrying the banner for the Pac-10, which is winless in five games against the Mountain West this season. Get a load of Colorado State, which nosed above .500 in Steve Fairchild’s first season with a thrilling win over Houston. The Rams are beginning to play better, especially at quarterback, and have an opportunity this week to make a quantum leap with a road win over a quality Pac-10 opponent.
Why Colorado State might win: The Cal defense sprung some leaks versus an average Maryland offense that the Rams will look to exploit. Billy Farris has played well at quarterback the last two weeks, throwing for 597 yards, three touchdowns, and only one interception. He has a stable supporting cast that includes complimentary backs Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell, and receivers Rashaun Greer, Dion Morton, and Kory Sperry. Colorado State hung with Cal a year ago, losing 34-28, and won’t be intimidated by the trip to Strawberry Canyon.
Why Cal might win
: The Bear offensive line, which got schooled by the Terps, is determined to prove that last week’s effort was an anomaly. C Alex Mack and his linemates will play with a chip on their shoulders, blowing the Ram line off the ball and allowing the Cal playmakers to make plays. In its toughest game to date, Colorado State gave up three rushing touchdowns to Colorado and failed to produce a sack. Backs Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen will reprise their early season roles, jetting through holes and into the Ram secondary.
Who to watch
: The biggest news in the offseason at Cal was whether Kevin Riley or Nate Longshore would get the ball from Jeff Tedford to start the season. So far, it looks as if Tedford has made the right call. Riley has been terrific, accounting for seven touchdowns, turning the ball over just once, and getting a multitude of Bears involved in the offense. The more he has to develop chemistry with his young backs and receivers, the more dangerous he’ll be as a distributor.
What will happen: Don’t think the Mountain West brass won’t be watching this game very closely. The league, along with the Pac-10, has plenty riding on the outcome. Cal will save a little face for the Pac-10, exploding on offense for 450 balanced yards, more than 40 points, and am easy double-digit win. Best will be the star, rekindling a smattering of Heisman talk.
CFN Prediction
: California 45 … Colorado State 16 ... Line: Cal -25.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 2
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Weber State (3-1) at Utah (4-0), 8:00 EST
Why to watch: Utah has last final tune-up before things get really  interesting for one of this year’s contenders to bust through the BCS’ glass ceiling. The Utes almost fell out of contention a week ago, needing a touchdown run from Darrell Mack in the final minute to get past Air Force. Even with the close call, they moved up to No. 17 in the AP poll with a high-profile visit from Oregon State looming next Thursday. After three mediocre seasons, Weber State may be on the brink of a breakout season in the Big Sky. The Wildcats have looked sharp getting to 3-1, piling up the points and nearly upsetting Hawaii in their only loss. The familiar face on the Weber State sidelines Saturday night will be Ron McBride, who coached the Utes to 88 wins between 1990-2002.
Why Weber State might win: With QB Cameron Higgins at the controls and RB Treyvn Smith taking handoffs, the Wildcats will get up and down the field in a hurry. Sure, the competition has been suspect, but Weber State is averaging 432 yards a game and is confident after outplaying Hawaii for more than a half. Utah has a showcase game with a Pac-10 team in five days, so there’s a strong likelihood it’ll be looking way past a heavy underdog from the FCS.
Why Utah might win: The Utes boast an almost perfectly balanced offense that can beat the Wildcats with the passing of Brian Johnson or the running of Mack and Matt Asiata. Their advantage at the point of contact will be substantial, allowing the backs to burst through gaping holes untouched. While Weber State has done some nice things on offense, it hasn’t seen anything like the defense it’ll face this weekend. Utah is No. 3 nationally in total defense, and DE Paul Kruger has been a one-man wrecking crew, leading the country with 11.5 tackles for loss.
Who to watch: Kruger is deservedly getting all of the attention on defense, but Koa Misi is emerging as an able tag-team partner on the other side. In his second season of action, he’s already made a team-high 25 tackles, five tackles for loss, and a couple of sacks. He’s got the size to defend the run and the quickness to get into the backfield, the right combination for Utah linemen.
What will happen: Although the Utes might sleepwalk through the game, they’ll be able to without suffering any consequences. Utah will build an early lead before halftime and get the starters to the sidelines as soon as the cushion is thick enough. With a huge game coming up on a short week, Kyle Whittingham wants to make sure his players leave this blowout healthy.
CFN Prediction: Utah 48 … Weber State 9 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 1
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- Big 12 Week Five Predictions