Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Oct. 4

Previews and Predictions for the Week 6 Mountain West Games.

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Aug. 30 | Sept. 6 | Sept. 13 | Sept. 20 
- Sept. 27 

How are the picks so far? SU: 23-11 ... ATS: 12-15

Mountain West Game of the Week

TCU (4-0) at Oklahoma (3-0), 7:00 EST Fox Sports
Why to watch: September 3^rd, 2005. Oklahoma was coming off a loss to USC for the 2004 national title and had won 26 of its previous 29 games. TCU opened up the 2005 season by pulling off a shocking 17-10 win. That was only Oklahoma’s second home loss since 1998 (a 16-13 gaffe to Oklahoma State at the end of 2001 was the other), and it was the first loss to a team from outside the BCS since a 51-31 loss to San Diego State in 1996. This year, TCU is flying under the Mountain West radar compared to BYU and Utah, but it has the nation’s leading defense and leads the nation in run defense. It hasn’t played a top-notch offense yet, but now it’ll get its chance to show whether or not it really is ready to handle the big boys. Oklahoma has arguably been the nation’s most dominant team over the first few weeks, winning its first three games by a combined score of 164 to 42. It’s the nation’s best scoring offense vs. the nation’s No. 3 scoring defense. It’s the Mountain West getting a shot at another big feather in its cap after spending the first few weeks ripping up the Pac 10. It should be an interesting tell-tale battle no matter what happens.
Why TCU might win: The lines. TCU doesn’t have the offensive and defensive lines that Oklahoma has, but they’re playing extremely well. The offensive front has allowed just three sacks in four games, while the defensive front has come up with a whipping 36 tackles for loss and is eighth in the nation in sacks with 14. This is a typical, aggressive, productive Gary Patterson defense that swarms to the ball and gets to the quarterback. If nothing else, this will be the most pressure OU QB Sam Bradford has faced all season.
Why Oklahoma might win: It’s not like TCU has faced a brick wall of a run defense. The Horned Frog running game has been impressive so far, but the best run defense it has dealt with is …. New Mexico? The TCU passing attack hasn’t had to do much, and it hasn’t exactly been efficient even with everyone keying on the ground game. You can’t beat Oklahoma if you’re one-dimensional. TCU might be fourth in the nation in tackles for loss, but OU leads the country averaging ten per game.
Who to watch: TCU quickly reloaded on its defensive front with Matt Panfil and Cody Moore going from out of the spotlight to superstar status. Panfil, a 232-pound senior end has tremendous quickness and has blown up now that he’s the No. 1 guy. He has come up with 3.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss, while Moore, a tremendously quick tackle, has cranked out 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. These two are disruptive forces who have to play big roles to pressure Bradford.
What will happen: TCU will start out well for a few drives and should keep OU in check for a quarter, and then the Sooner offense will be the Sooner offense. TCU’s passing game won’t be able to do enough to offset the lack of a running game, while OU will go on a big run for about ten minutes to put the game away.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 27 … TCU 10 ... Line: Oklahoma -17.5
Must See Rating: (5 Debate No. 1 - 1 The 2008 Primetime Emmys) … 4
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Thursday, October 2

Oregon State (2-2) at Utah (5-0), 9:00 EST
Why to watch: After sufficiently shocking the world with last Thursday’s upset of top-rated USC, Oregon State will set out to prove that the outcome was no fluke. A trip to Salt Lake City gives the Beavers that opportunity. Mike Riley’s teams in Corvallis have often needed a runway at the beginning of the season, and last week’s stunner just might have been the launching point. If nothing else, Oregon State has given birth to the Pac-10’s newest star, true freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Utah couldn’t have been happier by last week’s results. All of a sudden, beating the Beavers qualifies as a quality win as the Utes work to beef up their BCS-busting resume. Now up to No. 15 in the latest AP poll, they tuned up for Oregon State by beating Weber State, 37-21, in a game that was more one-sided than the score indicated.
Why Oregon State might win: The emergence of Rodgers over the last three games has helped give a facelift to the Beaver offense. He’s slippery, stronger than he appears, and able to get lost among the linemen. When he’s running well, it makes life so much easier for QB Lyle Moevao, who’s thrown five touchdowns without a pick over the last two weeks. As good as the Utah defense has been, it’s allowed eight touchdown passes this season and has yet to face an offense as diverse as the one from Oregon State.
Why Utah might win: Oregon State is at its best when it’s balanced, but that won’t be possible against this Ute D. Utah has been a brick wall in run defense, allowing just 60 yards a game and two yards a carry. The front seven, bolstered by DE Paul Kruger, DT Greg Newman, and LB Stevenson Sylvester, has become an immovable object that’ll shut off Rodgers’ running lanes. Moevao won’t be as effective on third-and-long, especially if top receiver Sammie Stroughter remains hobbled by a nagging hip pointer. On offense, the Utes have yet to be held below 25 points, getting production from QB Brian Johnson and backs Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack.
Who to watch: When Oregon State LT Andy Levitre goes up against Kruger, it’ll be a battle worth keeping an eye on. Both have NFL potential, although Kruger will have to wait at least one more year before playing on Sundays. Just a sophomore, he’s been tearing through opposing tackles all year, already racking up 11.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.
What will happen: Somewhere in between the lopsided loss to Penn State and the defeat of USC is where Oregon State currently resides. That’s good enough to hang with Utah, but not to pull out a second straight upset of a ranked team. The Utes will ride their offensive balance, while preventing Rodgers from taking over the game the way he did a week ago.
CFN Prediction: Utah 31 … Oregon State 23 ... Line: Utah -11.5
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 3.5 
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Friday, October 3

BYU (4-0) at Utah State (1-3), 8:00 EST 
Why to watch: Now the spotlight is changed. BYU has been considered a BCS buster from the start of the year, and now it has the potential to be a national championship party crasher by winning out. Ranked in the top ten and certain to move up over the next few weeks with higher-ranked teams, like Oklahoma and Texas, playing each other, each week is about looking more and more impressive. The Cougars have won their last two games against UCLA and Wyoming by a combined score of 103-0, and now they face a Utah State team that hasn’t won in this series since 1993. The Aggies might be 1-3, but they’re riding high after a 42-17 win over Idaho. 1-0 in the WAC, and with two road games ahead, they have to enjoy the non-conference home date and hope to come up with a decent showing. 
Why BYU might win: The Cougars should be able to hand the ball off 65 times and walk out with an easy win. The BYU passing game gets all the headlines and highlights, but it’s a ground game that averages 142 yards per game that provides just enough balance to make a good attack special. The BYU line hasn’t allowed a sack all year and should be able to shove around the Aggie defensive front.
Why Utah State might win: The only chance the Aggies have of keeping this from being a jaw-dropping blowout is to get a crisp passing day from Diondre Borel. While Borel is hardly Jake Locker, BYU had a hard time with the mobility of the Washington star in the tight 28-27 win. Borel is a good runner who leads the team with 217 yards after tearing off 93 against Idaho. If he’s not on, this could be a 50-point blasting.
Who to watch: Max Hall is the Heisman candidate who’s coming up with big game after big game, and the Cougars aren’t going to stop chucking the ball this week. However, there will be a steady diet of Harvey Unga, the tough sophomore who has been effective, but not explosive so far averaging a pedestrian 4.75 yards per carry. He ran for 95 yards on 19 carries against Wyoming, but he only has one 100-yard day on the year after tearing off seven last season.
What will happen: BYU will win by as many points as it wants to. Utah State won’t have the attack to keep up the pace.
CFN Prediction: BYU 52 … Utah State 7 ... Line: BYU -30
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 1.5
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Saturday, October 4

UNLV (3-2) at Colorado State (2-2), 2:00 EST  The Mtn.
Why to watch: Two programs that have been languishing among the bottom half of the Mountain West over the last few years have suddenly shown signs of life. The Rebels won two good overtime games against BCS teams, Arizona State and Iowa State, and then they got run over by Colin Kaepernick and Nevada. Colorado State got expectedly cranked by Cal in a 42-7 loss following two close wins over Sacramento State and Houston by a total of six points. While UNLV lost to Utah and needs this win to have any prayer of jumping into the Mountain West race, Colorado State is now kicking off its conference season with TCU and Utah coming up next.
Why UNLV might win: QB Omar Clayton should get all day to throw. Colorado State doesn’t have much of a pass rush. In fact, the defensive front never gets into backfield with a mere 12 tackles for loss and four sacks so far. Clayton’s mobile enough to make things happen on his own, and if he has time to let his good receivers get an extra second to get open, he could be deadly.
Why Colorado State might win: If the Rams can get the running game going, this would be the time. It has been a major disappointment so far, mainly because the offensive line has been awful, but UNLV can be run on. Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell are big, powerful backs who should be able to pound the ball, but haven’t. UNLV’s run defense has more of a problem with mobile quarterbacks than power backs, and they had problems with both against Utah. Colorado State has to control the ball and the clock from the start.  
Who to watch: Frank Summers needs to be back. The Tank, the power back who’s the focal point of the Rebel attack, ran for 103 yards in the win over Arizona State and 109 yards in the win over Iowa State, but he was held to 20 yards on nine carries against Nevada and was knocked out with a knee injury. It’s just a bruised knee and he’ll play, and he has to be effective.
What will happen: Colorado State won’t get the running game going enough to pull off the win. UNLV’s defense is nothing special, but the offensive line will let Clayton do his thing. The Rebel receiving corps will control the game.
CFN Prediction: UNLV 34 … Colorado State 27 ... Line: Colorado State -2
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 2
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Navy (3-2) at Air Force (3-1), 4:00 EST 
Why to watch: Navy and Air Force aren’t just two nice stories of little engines that could, these are two bona fide teams that have proven to be good enough to hang around with roughly 100 teams. While the talent level might not be there to beat the best of the best, Navy forced mistake after mistake to beat Wake Forest a week after beating Rutgers. Air Force lost its first game of the year two weeks ago against Utah, and now it needs to get back on track before diving back into Mountain West play with two road games against San Diego State and UNLV. Step one in the Commander in Chief trophy race will be all about the running game, and has been the recent trend between these two, should be wildly entertaining.
Why Navy might win: Even with all the interceptions of Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner last week, Navy’s problem is the secondary, and that’s not going to be an issue this week. Air Force runs the ball well, but no one is as precise and effective running the ball as Navy. The Falcon run defense gave up 197 yards and three touchdowns against Utah, and if Navy can power the ball, it should be effective.
Why Air Force might win: Air Force might be last in the nation in passing, but Navy doesn’t throw the ball, either. Even so, the Falcon defensive front that helps lead the nation in sacks, cranking out 16 so far, should be able to get in the backfield often enough to stop the Midshipman running game before it starts. Navy’s defense isn’t nearly as good at making plays behind the line. Air Force has forced 12 turnovers so far, and so has Navy, but Navy has put the ball on the ground more often.  
Who to watch: With QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada having problems staying healthy with a hamstring injury, the offense has turned more and more to fullback Eric Kettani, the bruising runner who ran for 133 yards against Rutgers and 175 yards against Wake Forest. Considering the way Utah was able to power the ball, Navy needs to go heavy with the hot hand.
What will happen: It would be a different story if Kaheaku-Enhada was 100%. The Navy offense doesn’t operate quite as well with Jarod Bryant at the helm. The two teams will combine for close to 600 yards on the ground with the Air Force defense being a bit more effective.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 27 … Navy 20 ... Line: Air Force -6
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 3
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San Diego State (1-3) at TCU (4-1), 6:00 EST The Mtn.
Why to watch: San Diego State might have struggled through the first three games of its season, but there’s nothing that playing Idaho won’t cure. Thanks to a huge day from QB Ryan Lindley, the Aztecs blew away the Vandals 45-17 for a little confidence boost going into the start of Mountain West play. Meanwhile, TCU’s BCS buster dreams fizzled out in a 35-10 loss to Oklahoma. Whatever … that’s the No. 1 team in America the Horned Frogs lost to. This is strong, tough TCU team that should be considered among the favorites for the Mountain West title, and soon it’ll start to get the press and the respect that Utah and BYU are getting.
Why San Diego State might win: Shellshock. Yeah, TCU is all about winning the Mountain West, but losing to OU in blowout fashion means the team has to avoid a serious letdown. After all, San Diego State isn’t BYU. The Aztecs have to get the passing game going early and Lindley has to be moving around from the start to counteract the aggressive TCU pass rush.
Why TCU might win: San Diego State is totally one-dimensional; it can’t run. TCU has had to deal with New Mexico’s Rodney Ferguson, Stanford’s Toby Gerhart, and Oklahoma’s DeMarco Murray, and it’s still No. 1 in the nation against the run. While the stats are a bit skewed because of all the yards loss on sacks and tackles for loss, the run defense really is that good. If the San Diego State passing game isn’t special, this won’t be pretty.  
Who to watch: Lindley, a redshirt freshman, is the playmaker the offense will have to revolve around for the next four years. He’s a tough, passer who bombed away for 433 yards and four touchdowns against Idaho and has been decent for stretches over the first four games. However, he struggled against the San Jose State pass rush and couldn’t come up with the one really big play to get by Notre Dame. He’ll have to be nearly perfect in his decision-making.
What will happen: It’ll take about a half for TCU to wake up, and then the defense will take over and shut down and shut out the Aztec offense in the second half.
CFN Prediction: TCU 38 … San Diego State 13 ... Line: TCU -24
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 2
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Wyoming (2-3) at New Mexico (2-3), 9:30 EST The Mtn.
Why to watch: New Mexico was good enough to beat Arizona, but lost to a horrible Texas A&M team, got blasted by Tulsa, and struggled to beat New Mexico State. Wyoming beat Ohio by one, North Dakota State by three, and was blasted by everyone else. In Mountain West play, the Cowboys lost to Air Force and BYU by a combined score of 67-3. The loser us all but done with any bowl hopes, while the winner still has several tough games to deal with and will have to pull off a few upsets. The road team has won the last three years.
Why Wyoming might win: Brad Gruner. He wasn’t awful against New Mexico State, but the new starting quarterback was hidden a bit, completing 7-of-16 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown with an interception. Wyoming’s run defense has been solid, and the defense overall has been decent, and it can tee off on the Lobo running game. The Cowboys will take their chances with the New Mexico passing game.
Why New Mexico might win: Wyoming’s offense is a disaster. It hasn’t scored more than 16 points in any of the last four games and has no passing game whatsoever. UW has the nation’s least efficient passing game, and while the New Mexico secondary has been a nightmare, partly because of injuries, it should have few problems this week.
Who to watch: The Lobos should have their runners back and ready. Paul Baker picked up the slack against New Mexico State with 147 yards, but he suffered a foot injury. Rodney Ferguson was limited with a shoulder injury. Both are expected to play and both are expected to be fine. They need to be, or else the Lobo offense will be in huge trouble.
What will happen: Who has the more inept offense? Wyoming. New Mexico will rely on its running game to pound its way to the win.
CFN Prediction: New Mexico 31 … Wyoming 16 ... Line: New Mexico -11
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) … 2
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