By
Brian Harbach
By
Russ Mitchell
3 SEC QUESTIONS THAT NAG MORE THAN YOUR EX
(i) Who Do You Like as SEC Champion and Division Champions?
Russ Mitchell:
The SEC has four teams that have a legitimate shot at the NC, and it’s virtually a toss-up by division. However, the West will be decided in Auburn on Sept. 20, with the road team Tigers bucking the recent trend by winning yet another tight one. Why?: The early date helps LSU; the Bayou Tigers start with three easy tune-ups at home, while Auburn’s young QB will get banged around by a tough MSU D in Starkville the week before. As for the East, Florida beats UGA head-to-head on Nov. 1. Why?: Neither team has a bye the week before – which typically determines the winner. However, the ‘Dawgs are in Louisiana banging heads with the defending NCs, while Florida has a comparatively easy home game against a retooling Wildcat team, now sans Pulley (QB). Florida wins out, beating the Bayou Bengals twice in 2008. But it still won’t be enough – once again, no SEC team will escape the season with less than two overall losses, and thus a weaker OSU, USC or OU will play in Miami.
Brian Harbach:
It is hard not to like the Gators this year: the schedule is in their favor, they have revenge on their mind and they avoid playing two of the best three teams in the West. Georgia has to beat Alabama at home and LSU and Auburn on the road, while the Gators get the Bengal Tigers in the swamp and won’t have to play either of the schools from Alabama unless it is in the SECCG. Florida has to be the favorite, but look out for Auburn to make a good run as well; even years seem to benefit the men from the Plains, and with the favorable home schedule and toughest road game being West Virginia, they have a great shot to get to Atlanta. Tommy Tuberville seems to have Urban Meyer’s number, so that matchup could be an interesting one in the Dome in December.
(ii) Which Coach is most likely to be gone at the end of the Season?
Mitchell:
You can write this in granite: Kentucky will be no better than 5-7; more probably 4-8. Still, it’s unlikely Brooks leaves on his own, not after signing an extension this January through 2011 (at $1.6M /per). And he doesn’t get pushed out; not yet. The bold prediction is: no one. Petrino and Nutt are on honeymoons; separately (that means no texting, Nutt). Croom can’t recruit well enough, but MSU will do fine with that D. Spurrier could retire with unfinished business, and/or Fulmer finally gets tarred and feathered (and feathered); but Spurrier Jr. needs more marinating, and Tennessee will be good again. Yup – no one.
Harbach:
Steve Spurrier will coach his last game for the Gamecocks in Clemson this November, and then step down as the head coach of South Carolina. South Carolina is no closer to the SEC Championship or the SEC East for that matter since the arrival of the Head Ball Coach. Spurrier knows the writing is on the wall and he will not get over the hump in Columbia; this is not the end of the Darth Visor, but it will be his swan song at South Carolina.
(iii) What bowl team last year will not make a bowl game this year?
Mitchell:
Kentucky. Britney’s got a better chance of waking up stone cold sober with full custody than the Wildcats have of making it to their third straight bowl game. Sorry Ashley.
Harbach:
Mississippi State will not be returning to a bowl game this season. While it is hard not to love the job Sylvester Croom has done at MSU, the team is still a year away from being consistent. Last year a number of bounces went the Bulldogs way that they will likely not get this year. The quarterback position is unsettled and there are no playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Anthony Dixon is a good running back, but defenses will stack the box and he will struggle this year. MSU will take a step back this season.
IN FOCUS: Which Coach / Player is in the Spotlight this week?
Mitchell:
Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida. With Cornelius Ingram (Sr.) sadly down for the count, Tate Casey (Sr.) being a serviceable but hardly stellar backup, and no true TEs in last year’s class, the buck’s gotta stop with Mr. Hernandez. A true sophomore, Hernandez was ranked the #2 TE in the nation coming out of Bristol Central in Connecticut. At 6’3”, 255 pounds, #81 has the size to go with the speed and hands. Indeed, all the measurables… Now we’ll get to see how the youngster can handle the pressure. (Runner-up: Jarius Wynn. The senior was Georgia's only uninjured scholarship DE available for last Friday’s practice. 7 of 8 out. Oh my.)
Harbach:
If there is one player that might be able to make some noise this year in the SEC and nationally it is Arian Foster. For some reason this guy has flown under the radar at Tennessee for years, and in 2008 he has an amazing opportunity to make a name for himself – and do it early. As usual all of Tennessee’s big games come early; they have a Monday night game at UCLA to go along with games against Florida, Auburn and Georgia in the first half of their season. Foster will have a great offensive line and a new spread offense, which should give him the opportunity to run in space. If Tennessee wins some of the above games, he will be a huge part of it and he could be a dark horse Heisman contender in 2008.
SEC HEISMAN HYPE Top 3 Heisman Candidates
Mitchell:
Outside of the folks in Gainesville, does anyone really care about this award anymore? Seriously, email if you care about this award, and why. At this point, it’s all hype, but the best three players in the SEC today are Tim Tebow, Andre Smith and Ricky Jean-Francois. Let ESPN tell you Kno-Mo (and his six starts against average rushing defenses) and Stafford (83rd in passing last year), but I’m at least waiting until the two road trips against South Carolina and an overrated ASU team before I start considering either.
Harbach:
There are three guys that obviously stand out, Tim Tebow, Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford. Probably two of the three will make it to the Heisman ceremony and but it always comes down to wins. If Florida wins the East it will be Tim Tebow again and if UGA wins the East it will be Stafford. Moreno may be the best running back in the SEC, but he will split time with Caleb King and unless he gets close to 1800 yards, it isn’t likely he will win the Heisman this year. The odds have to be in Tebow’s favor to repeat.
SEC POWER RANKINGS
Mitchell:
1 Florida – Aloha! means I love you.
2 Georgia – Take a deep breath, UGA fans.
3 LSU – W/o at least ‘decent’ QB play, they’ll drop to 5/6.
4 Auburn – Franklin’s O should be fine.
5 Tennessee – Yet another ‘start’ at #3 /East. Didn't hurt in '07.
6 USC – Easy 1H schedule helps.
7 MSU – Yes, MSU is 7. D is thin, but excellent.
8 Alabama – Please, please beat Clemson.
9 Ole Miss – Border war with Memphis.
10 Kentucky – Did I mention I met Ashley Judd once. Once.
11 Arkansas – There are just too many holes.
12 Vandy – Squirrels. Vicious.
Harbach:
1 Florida – Schedule looking good
2 Georgia – Schedule not looking good
3 Auburn – New O New D, West favorites
4 LSU – Will be nasty by October
5 Tennessee – Don’t sleep on the Vols
6 Alabama – How many true freshmen will play?
7 Ole Miss – Nutt will make the Rebels better fast
8 South Carolina – Spurrier’s last stand?
9 MSU – Teams won’t be sleeping on them this year
10 Arkansas – Get ready for ’09 Ryan Mallett
11 Vanderbilt – Not your Daddy’s Vandy any longer
12 Kentucky – Rebuilding job ahead for Brooks
TOP 3 SEC GAMES OF THE YEAR
Mitchell:
1) Florida v. UGA, November 1. With most of the nation preparing for a Super Tuesday Presidential race, SEC football fans will be tuned in to see who likely represents the conference in the post-season.
2) LSU v. Auburn, September 20. It seems like the last 10 games b/w these two have been decided by 10 points and 10 seconds. The winner likely represents the West in Atlanta come December.
3) South Carolina v. Florida, November 15. Georgia might need a USC upset to get into the SEC Championship Game – or maybe it’s USC rolling all the way to Atlanta with some Old Ball Coach magic and an easy 1H schedule. More likely the former, but you just never know with the OBC.
(Could have gone LSU v. Florida or ‘bama v. LSU for #3, but the home teams win both of these games with room to spare. Given ‘bama’s youth, a BIG win over Clemson could be a nice momentum/confidence builder going into the season. ‘Course, a blowout could have the opposite effect. Tick tick tick…)
Harbach:
1) Florida vs. Georgia. There is not a game in the country that can match the drama and excitement that the Cocktail Party offers up this year. The two best teams in the SEC; maybe the country. And don’t forget the stomping incident, because the Gators haven’t.
2) Alabama at LSU. There will not be a better atmosphere in the country than when the Crimson Tide and Nick Saban return to Baton Rouge. You better be sitting in front of the TV to witness the return of the most hated man in Louisiana this November. The SEC may not offer a better scene for college football all season.
3) LSU at Auburn. The home team has won this game every year since LSU lost at home in the infamous Cigar game in 1999. The last four contests have been extremely close, most ending in the last minute with no drama to spare. This year will be no different, and the winner will likely represent the West in Atlanta.
Questions or comments for Brian? E-mail Brian Harbach
Questions or comments for Russ? E-mail Russ Mitchell
|