By
J.P. Girouard
By this time in the college football preseason, we have a pretty good idea of what we should expect. Preseason polls and preview magazines have slotted the teams and players accordingly, but who might do better than the pundits suggest? And are there units or players out there that may be overrated? Let's try to answer those questions as we play the Big East Expectations Game.
Will Exceed Expectations: West Virginia’s defense. Conventional wisdom is that the loss of seven starters from this unit
will be a significant blow to the Mountaineers chances. But in 2005, West Virginia only returned
THREE starters yet still finished 15th in the country in total
defense. The bulk of the losses were
suffered in the secondary, which in the Big East isn’t a huge deal as few teams
in the conference are serious aerial threats. As long as linebackers Reed Williams and Mortty
Ivy stay healthy to help stuff the run, things will be fine.
Won't Live Up To The Hype:
South Florida’s defense. Contrary
to perception, this was not a dominant unit last season, finishing fourth in the
Big East in total defense and falling apart in the Sun Bowl against
Oregon. And while seven starters return (including mega-talented DE George Selvie),
there are some huge losses – linebacker Ben Moffitt along with cornerbacks Trae Williams and Mike Jenkins were big-time playmakers for
USF. The secondary losses are an even
bigger deal when you consider the Bulls have to play Kansas in their third game
of the season – the Jayhawks are far more dangerous through the air than anybody in the Big East.
Will Exceed Expectations: UConn’s offense. Yes, the offense was putrid at times in 2007, finishing 97th in passing and 90th overall. But nine starters return, including the starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen) and a pair of
All Big-East caliber running backs in Andre Dixon and Donald Brown. The offensive line is veteran and experienced,
with six players having been starters for significant stretches. The biggest reason the Huskies offense will be better than you think? It doesn’t make mistakes, committing only 15 turnovers last season – a trait that will help UConn stay in games until their excellent defense can take over.
Won't Live Up To The Hype:
Cincinnati’s offense. The offense was excellent last season, in large part
due to the play of quarterback Ben Mauk and his 31
touchdown passes. The drop-off from Mauk to Dustin Grutza (24
interceptions in 24 career appearances) or Tony Pike (20 career pass attempts)
will be significant, so much so that head coach Brian Kelly himself suggested
the Bearcats’ will be more conservative in 2008. Add in the fact that the Bearcats’ top two
running backs from last season graduated, and there certainly will be a
drop-off from last season’s 36.3 points-per-game average.
Will Exceed Expectations: Rutgers QB Mike Teel. All Teel did in 2007 was throw for
more than 3,100 yards and 20 touchdowns – with a broken thumb. And
he did it despite the fact that RB Ray Rice ran for over 2,000 yards. Rice is gone to the NFL, which means a greater emphasis on the passing game. Possessing two very talented wideouts in Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood along with emerging tight
end Kevin Brock, it would be surprising if the fifth-year senior didn’t end up
leading the Big East in passing and gaining second-team all-conference honors to boot.
Won't Live Up To The Hype: Louisville QB Hunter Cantwell. Long touted as the heir apparent to Brian Brohm, Cantwell is considered a top NFL prospect despite
having started four games in his entire collegiate career. Now while the senior has looked good in his
limited opportunities, it’s not exactly clear who he’ll be throwing to. Only two of the top seven receivers from 2007
return; one of them (Scott Long) recently broke his leg, the other (Trent Guy)
got shot during the off-season and is just now returning to practice. Cantwell might have strong measurables,
but without experienced receivers he certainly won’t have strong statistics.
Will Exceed Expectations: Syracuse head coach Greg Robinson. To say expectations in Syracuse are low would
be an understatement – the Orange were a unanimous pick by the media to finish dead last in the Big East. There’s enough returning talent on both sides of the ball (even with a
spate of losses in the receiving corps) to expect Syracuse to be better. And the schedule is actually not as
unfavorable as you might think – it’s conceivable the Orange could beat
Northwestern, which could propel them to a 3-1 start. Mix in a couple of winnable Big East home
games and a job-saving five or six-win season is certainly a possibility.
Won't Live Up To The Hype:
Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt. Despite having three straight non-winning
seasons, the Panthers are expected to be a fringe top-25 team in 2008. Most of this optimism is based on the fact
that Pitt upset West Virginia in last year’s season finale plus a string of strong recruiting classes. But
it isn’t like there hasn’t been talent in Pittsburgh before – Tyler Palko, Greg Lee, H.B. Blades and Darrelle Revis were all big-time college players. The problem has been consistency and the
ability to win close games. Until those
traits emerge, it’s a stretch to believe Pitt will push USF and West Virginia
for conference supremacy.
J.P. Girouard writes/blogs/whines incessantly about the Big East for CollegeFootballNews.com
Archives:
The Big East Expectations Game
Is This Going To Be Ben Mauk's Legacy?
WVU Runs Away In Big East Media Poll
Rutgers' Strange Stadium Bargain
The Coach Who Stayed
The Big East Manifesto