Keeping the
Ball Rolling
Can the 11 breakout/breakthrough teams of last year keep improving?
By
Pete Fiutak
It’s national title or bust for Georgia, Ohio State, and USC. Those
three teams are considered the favorites to win their respective
conferences, and while a BCS appearance and a league championship would
be nice, anything less than the BCS Championship will likely make the
season sour for those three powerhouses.
Those three, along with other superpowers like LSU and Florida are
supposed to be good. The expectations are high and a great bowl bid is
expected, just like every other year. Now that same excitement has hit a
new wave of programs coming off of breakout seasons, and now there’s a
new buzz for a several fan bases that haven’t had too much to cheer
about until last season.
11 teams came up with major breakout seasons in 2007, and now the
question is whether or not they have staying power.
The Top Ten Potential
Breakthrough Teams of 2008
These are the teams that should turn a corner and be better than
they've been in years.
1. Texas Tech
2. Clemson
3. Pitt
4. Louisiana Tech
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan State
7. Temple
8. Western Michigan
9. Buffalo
10. Northwestern |
Missouri and Kansas came from also-ran status to become national
players. West Virginia went from the class of the Big East to a game
away from the BCS Championship. Arizona State finally turned a corner in
the first year of the Dennis Erickson era after years of being stuck in
the mud under Dirk Koetter. Mississippi State was a longtime doormat of
the SEC before rallying under Sylvester Croom. Illinois went from
miserable to the Rose Bowl overnight. Cincinnati was on the way up, and
then took things to another level despite a coaching change. South
Florida burst onto the scene ascending to No. 2 in the nation, while
Connecticut quietly went 9-4 led by one of the nation’s most effective
defenses. Hawaii gave the WAC its second BCS appearance in as many years
with a 12-0 regular season. And then there was Florida Atlantic, a
program that didn’t exist until head coach Howard Schnellenberger
created it from scratch, winning the Sun Belt title and the New Orleans
Bowl.
Who were the one-year wonders, and who appears ready to do even more?
What needs to be done to keep the momentum going, and what’s the
likelihood of it happening for each team? Looking towards the near
future, here are the breakdowns and the forecasts for 2007’s breakout
stars.
Arizona State – After turning Boise State into Boise State,
Dirk Koetter was expected to be the savior at Arizona State. The Sun
Devils always had talent, and Koetter was the offensive mastermind who
appeared ready to make the program a superpower. While he came close to
doing some big things, ASU ended up with the dreaded underachiever tag
as it failed to become a major threat in the Pac 10 title hunt. Enter
Dennis Erickson, the Larry Brown of football, who ditched Idaho after
one year at the helm and put together a 10-3 season highlighted by an
8-0 start. Things came crashing back to earth with a 52-34 thumping from
Texas in the Holiday Bowl, but that didn’t dampen the excitement for the
near future.
Is it going to last? Yes, Arizona State will have to be
reckoned with as long as Erickson is at the helm, but as long as that 400-pound
gorilla is still loading up with next level talents up in Los Angeles,
it’ll be hard to take another major step forward. One thing is for
certain, Erickson knows to coach in the Pac 10, having done the near
impossible by making Oregon State special, along with his successes at
Washington State.
Cincinnati – Mark Dantonio appeared to be building a strong
foundation for a burgeoning Big East power, and then he bolted for
Michigan State. The Bearcats not only went on without a problem, but
they might have upgraded by snagging Brian Kelly from Central Michigan,
one of the hottest young head coaches in the game. Somewhat quietly, at
least on a national scale, UC went 10-3 finishing with a bowl win over
Southern Miss. The three losses came by four, seven, and five points,
while there was a 34-3 bombing of Oregon State and a great road win over
South Florida.
Is it going to last? All signs point to yes, but the key
will be to keep Kelly around, which could be tough, and to have another
big season to keep the momentum rolling. The comparisons will be made to
the ascension of Rutgers, but this is more like Louisville when Bobby
Petrino was leading the way. It’s going to take one big recruit to get
the ball rolling, and it’ll take at least one big, splashy win to
generate more excitement, but for the first time in a long time,
Cincinnati football is becoming relevant in its own town.
Connecticut – UConn became the team no one believed in. Randy
Edsall’s club wasn’t exciting, and it certainly wasn’t flashy, but it
set the tone with a 34-14 win over Pitt and midseason wins over
Louisville, South Florida and Rutgers that started to generate a little
excitement, and then came the rough finishing kick. Wrapped around a
30-7 win over Syracuse were losses to Cincinnati, West Virginia, and in
the Meineke Car Care Bowl to Wake Forest by a combined score of 117 to
34. Even so, the 9-4 finish was the program’s best since it joined the
Big East.
Is it going to last? It might still take a little while to
get over the hump and win the Big East title, but Edsall is getting the
Huskies there. Half the battle has already been won with a major upgrade
in the infrastructure. The school gets it. The success of the basketball
teams has created a winning environment, but unlike places like Duke,
North Carolina and Kentucky, this isn’t necessarily seen as a basketball
school. New facilities, a new stadium, and a commitment to football have
given Edsall the tools he needs, and now he has to go get the players.
So far, UConn has been able to get good prospects who buy into the
system and succeed, but a few elite players need to help take the
program to another level.
Florida Atlantic – Florida Atlantic football didn’t exist before
Howard Schnellenberger made it happen. In 2004, the Owls jumped into the
D-I mix and went a stunning 9-3 complete with wins over Hawaii, North
Texas and Middle Tennessee as part of a swing of seven road games in the
first eight. After two straight losing seasons, the Owls went 8-5 last
year with a Sun Belt title and a New Orleans Bowl win over Memphis.
There was a win over Minnesota, while four of the losses came against
Oklahoma State, Kentucky, South Florida and Florida.
Is it going to last? It appears so. Schellenberger hasn’t
quite put a recruiting fence around the State of Boca Raton, like he
famously did in the early 80s recruiting the “State of Miami,” but he
has been able to get enough local talent to form a nice base of athletes
who fit his system and his hard-nosed style. The addition of QB Rusty
Smith a few years ago has given the offense a star to revolve around,
and the receivers are starting to shine because of it. FAU is the
favorite to win the Sun Belt title again this year, and with a new
stadium on the way, this is quickly becoming another South Florida.
Hawaii – After several years as the pesky, quirky team that put up
gobs of passing numbers on the way to the occasional late-season upset,
Hawaii turned the corner building off an 11-3 2006 to go 12-0 with a WAC
title before getting obliterated by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The
painful end didn’t necessarily take the luster off a glorious season
that saw Colt Brennan become a Heisman finalist and the program a
national focal point week after week with thrilling wins over Fresno
State, Nevada, Boise State and Washington to get the BCS spot.
Is it going to last? It’s not likely. A perfect storm came
together last season, and now June Jones is off to SMU, Brennan, along
with all his top receivers, are gone, and new head coach Greg McMackin
has to try to keep the party going with defense and the memories of a
great recent run. While Hawaii can still be a bowl team, and can still
make some noise in the WAC, things aren’t exactly conducive for
long-term success. The facilities might be the worst in all of college
football, and the budget and the recruiting will always be a limiting
factor. It’ll be hard for Hawaii to maintain the consistent success of,
say, Boise State.
Illinois - The Illini went to the Sugar Bowl under Ron Turner in
2001 and then promptly went into the tank with five straight losing
seasons including an awful start to the Ron Zook era. However, Zook had
a good defense in place, came up with a few tremendous recruiting
classes, and things started to change in a hurry as the Illini went 9-3
and upset Ohio State in Columbus before getting outclassed by USC in the
Rose Bowl. Even with the lousy end, the season put Illinois on the
football map again and has generated more excitement at the basketball
school than there has been in several years.
Is it going to last? To a point. Zook continues to be one of the
most tireless recruiters in the game and he'll keep bringing in good
players, but you'll have to forgive Illini fans if they've seen this
before. In the 1980s, under Mike White, the program was supposed to turn
into a regular factor in the Big Ten race after going to the Rose Bowl
in 1983. It didn't happen. The 2001 season was supposed to be a turning
point, but it was a turn in the wrong direction. Last year was a down
season for the Big Ten, and while Illinois should still be good, it'll
likely take a step back.
Kansas – No one saw this coming, including Kansas. The Jayhawks were
growing into a respectable .500 team under Mark Mangino with a good
ground game and a defense that couldn’t give up passing yards fast
enough, and then, from out of nowhere came a 12-1 juggernaut that rolled
through the season and finished up with an Orange Bowl win over Virginia
Tech to validate it all. The team had one lousy half against Missouri,
leading to the loss and a chance to play for the Big 12 title, but that
didn’t dampen what turned into the best football season in the school’s
history.
Is it going to last? By all indications, Kansas will be
good again, but it’s not going to be 12-1 good for one simple reason:
the schedule. Last season the Jayhawks played a joke of a non-conference
slate and missed Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the Big 12 South.
The North was also down with Kansas State, Colorado and Nebraska far
from being their usual selves. This year the North is better, Oklahoma,
Texas and Texas Tech are now on the slate, and there’s a living,
breathing non-conference game at South Florida. That’s not to say KU
can’t win any or all of those, but it’ll be tougher to get through the
schedule as easily. For long term success, the recruiting has to start
kicking in. There wasn’t a major influx of star talent coming in after
last year’s breakout campaign, but that should change with one more good
year.
Mississippi State – It’s not that Mississippi State was that bad
under Sylvester Croom, but it wasn’t great and it still happens to be
playing in the SEC. Those three-win seasons might have been six-victory
campaigns in almost any other conference, but Croom was still on the hot
seat. And then the defense turned things up a notch, the offense was
opportunistic, if not efficient, and the Bulldogs cranked out an 8-5
season with a bowl win over UCF. After the school’s best season since
2000, the hope is to keep going forward and become more of a player in
the SEC race.
Is it going to last? No. MSU will still be pesky and
should be even more talented on both sides of the ball this year, but
going forward, it’ll be tough to be a yearly bowl team as the rest of
the conference improves. Ole Miss isn’t going to be a doormat much
longer with Houston Nutt at the helm, Arkansas should be even stronger
under Bobby Petrino, Alabama is about to emerge as a superpower under
Nick Saban, and Auburn and LSU aren’t going anywhere. That’s just the
SEC West. That’s not to say MSU can’t be good, but it’ll be tough to
build on the 2007 success.
Missouri – Gary Pinkel had helped turn Toledo into a success and
became one of the hot new head coaches when Missouri snapped him up.
While his no-nonsense approach turned off many in the media and earned
him a frosty reputation, the bigger problem became a history of dying in
the second halves of seasons. A collapse/total meltdown in a 39-38 loss
to Oregon State in the 2006 Sun Bowl didn’t help the cause, but Pinkel
had a loaded team returning last year. Led by Chase Daniel, the Tigers
played up to their potential and more earning a No. 1 ranking with a
chance to play for the national title before bowing to Oklahoma in the
Big 12 Championship.
Is it going to last? For one year, yes, and then the rest
of the pack should catch up. Mizzou has most of the pieces back to win
the Big 12 title and be a major threat to play for the national
championship, while Daniel should be a Heisman finalist again, but down
the road, programs like Nebraska and Colorado should be improved enough
to be bigger threats again to win the North. On the plus side, the
talent is coming to Columbia. Missouri doesn’t appear to be going
anywhere.
South Florida – The program jumped up to D-I status in 2000 and
didn’t join the Big East until 2005, but everything went nuclear for the
rising star after a shocking 26-23 win at Auburn and a 21-13 win over
West Virginia highlighted a 6-0 start and a No. 2 ranking. A three-game
loss ended the fun, at least momentarily, but all three games were
close, and the Bulls rallied with three straight wins before getting
bombed by Oregon in the Sun Bowl.
Is it going to last? It appears so. Head coach Jim Leavitt
is a true believer in his program, honestly feeling he has one of the
best situations in America. He might be right. USF is a huge school with
a big enough base to quickly come together and support a top football
program, and of course there’s the location. After building the program
from the Sunshine State also-rans who didn’t go to the big Florida
schools, Leavitt is now starting to get more and more top players giving
a look to Tampa. After two straight 9-4 seasons, USF should be here to
stay.
West Virginia – While hardly a breakout star after years of success
under Rich Rodriguez, West Virginia became a more legitimized national
title challenger with the whole world there for the taking if it
could’ve just beaten a mediocre Pitt team at home. Pat White got dinged
up, the Panther defense played out of its gourd, and the Mountaineers
were Fiesta Bowl bound where they beat Oklahoma 48-28 to prove the
program’s legitimacy as a superpower. That was until …
Is it going to last? … RichRod bolted for Michigan. Bill
Stewart’s audition as the head man in the thumping of the Sooners was
good enough to get him the permanent gig, and he first set out to put
together a tremendous coaching staff that should keep the success
created by Rodriguez going. However, now the rest of the Big East is
better, and while West Virginia should still be the league’s anchor
program, it’s not going to have such an easy time of it anymore. So yes,
there’s no questioning the staying power, but the coaching change and
the overall Big East improvement might make it tougher to be a yearly
national title contender.