By
Brian Harbach
I have to admit I am pretty fired up about this weekend's schedule, patiently we have waited for weeks to get to the games that matter to the SEC race and we have two huge ones this weekend with Auburn/LSU and Florida/Tennessee. Those two would be enough to make any fan happy, but with match-ups between Arkansas/Alabama, Ole Miss/Vanderbilt and Georgia traveling to Tempe, AZ for a game against the PAC 10's Arizona State, how can you not get excited?
These picks are all about the winners, not spreads, not points, just the winners. So far this season I am coming in with a record of 24-5 picking the winning team. The games are getting tougher to pick, but that means the games are getting better. Here we go...
Mississippi State at Georgia Tech
Saturday, September 20th
What’s Going Good:
The Mississippi State defense looked good against a struggling Auburn offense last week. They made a great stand late in the game when Auburn had first and goal from the seven yard line and looked very physical. Giving up only 3 points to any SEC team is a great accomplishment and their defense is the real deal.
What’s Looking Bad:
As good as the defense looks; the offense looks just as bad. Wesley Carroll has not looked accurate or in command of the offense and Anthony Dixon is hurt and may not play in this game.
Bottom Line:
Georgia Tech fits right into the MSU wheelhouse as far as an offensive matchup for the Bulldog defense. State should be more physical than Tech at nearly every position and should cause enough turnovers to give the offense a short field.
Predicted Score
Mississippi State 17
Georgia Tech 14
Alabama at Arkansas
Saturday, September 20th
What’s Going Good:
Freshmen wide receiver Julio Jones is beginning to get more comfortable in the Alabama offense and so far he is leading Alabama in receiving yards and is second in receptions. The longer this season goes, the more of a weapon Jones will become.
What’s Looking Bad:
Arkansas has nearly lost two games at home against vastly inferior competition and that kind of play will not allow them to be victorious against Alabama. While postponing last weeks game against Texas makes their next 4 games even more difficult, it doesn’t hurt to spend some extra time preparing for a good Alabama team.
Bottom Line:
This is the best team that Arkansas has faced so far this season and if they have been challenged by Western Illinois and Louisiana Monroe, it is hard to see them hanging around in this game.
Predicted Score
Alabama 28
Arkansas 13
Florida at Tennessee
Saturday, September 20th
What’s Going Good:
A rested group of Florida Gators will be heading to Knoxville this weekend. Their offense put on a clinic against the Vols last year with over 550 total yards and 59 points. While the rest was nice, the important fact is how healthy Florida is heading into this game, Percy Harvin had nearly 200 yards last year against the Vols and is ready to go.
What’s Looking Bad:
This is a big game for the Volunteer Defense, Gator LB Brandon Spikes said they quit last year. You don’t get a bigger slap in the face than being called a quitter by the team that took your manhood last year. I expect a different Tennessee to show up at home this weekend.
Bottom Line:
The Tennessee team may look different this time against Florida, but the result won’t be different. Bye weeks are so important for injured players and they give a team extra time to focus on the details and game plan. I expect Florida to play their best game of the year Saturday, but the Vols will keep it close.
Predicted Score
Florida 28
Tennessee 17
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss
Saturday, September 20th
What’s Going Good:
I mentioned in my Y’all Play Nice column with Russ Mitchell Thursday how excited I am about this game. Both of these teams have been early season surprises with their good play and I expect one heck of a game in Oxford Saturday night. Both quarterbacks, Chris Nickson and Jevan Snead, have looked great so far and we should get a pretty competitive game out of it.
What’s Looking Bad:
There isn’t a lot bad about this game, but there is a little bad news for Vandy with the return of some injured Rebel defensive players. It looks like both Peria Jerry and Greg Hardy are going to be a go for this game and that is not good news for the Commodores.
Bottom Line:
This should be the second most competitive game of the day behind Auburn/LSU, we should see more offense in this one and the Rebels use the home field advantage to win their first SEC game in two years.
Predicted Score
Vanderbilt 23
Ole Miss 28
Wofford at South Carolina
Saturday, September 20th
What’s Going Good:
This game could not come at a better time for the Gamecocks, this should be a good chance for Carolina to get some good reps for the quarterbacks and for Spurrier to get a good look at some of the young players he will need to turn the rest of the season in the right direction.
What’s Looking Bad:
The Carolina playing calling has been disappointing this season, as bad as the quarterbacks have looked, the coaches are not putting their guys in a position to succeed. Until play calling gets better, the Gamecocks will not improve.
Bottom Line:
Williams Brice should have plenty of reasons to cheer this weekend because the Gamecocks should look like world beaters against Wofford. Chris Smelley will get some rhythm with the younger receivers and start building confidence for the bigger games to come.
Predicted Score
Wofford 6
South Carolina 44
LSU at Auburn
Saturday, September 20th
What’s Going Good:
This game will feature the top two defenses in the SEC and two of best defenses in the nation. The defensive lines are full of future NFL players with guys like Sen’derrick Marks, Antonio Coleman, Tyson Jackson and Ricky Jean-Francois.
What’s Looking Bad:
This game is not going to be pretty to watch unless you love defense, both teams have serious issues at quarterback. LSU has yet to determine a starter and Auburn’s starter isn’t very good. Whichever team turns the ball of the least from the QB position will likely win this game.
Bottom Line:
It is hard to go against Tommy Tuberville when playing a top 10 team. He is 9-3 in his last games against those opponents, but Auburn’s offense is too much of a question. Even if Auburn was holding back for this game, they have looked so unorganized on offense it is impossible to think they will simply be able to turn it on for LSU. LSU scores all its points in the first half and the Auburn offense isn’t able to catch up.
Predicted Score
LSU 13
Auburn 6
Georgia at Arizona State
Saturday, September 20th
What’s Going Good:
UGA was able to win a game against South Carolina that they always struggle with, so regardless of the score, it was a big win for the Bulldogs. It was also a big road win, this Georgia team has proven they can win outside of Athens in a tougher environment than the one in Tempe will be Saturday night. That experience will help them immensely against the Sun Devils.
What’s Looking Bad:
This game was destroyed by an unacceptable look ahead loss by Arizona State, how can you lose to UNLV at home? Sorry, I forgot Arizona State was in the Pac 10. That kind of effort is not going to get it done against Georgia, but ASU has probably been practicing for this game since August. The final score will be closer than the game actually is.
Bottom Line:
Text
Predicted Score
Georgia 38
Arizona State 24
Don't be shy, if you have something to say send me an email and let me know what you think. E-mail
me Brian Harbach
Y’all Play Nice - Week Four, September 18, 2008
The SEC Bachstory, September 15, 2008
Y’all Play Nice - Week Three, September 11, 2008
The SEC Bachstory, September 8, 2008
Harbach’s SEC Picks Week Two, September 3, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Two, September 3, 2008
The SEC Bachstory, September 1, 2008
SEC Picks Week One, August 28, 2008
Y’all Play Nice, August 28, 2008
The SEC Bachstory, August 25, 2008
Y’all Play Nice, August 21, 2008
The SEC Bachstory, August 18, 2008
Has Spurrier Failed at USC?, August 15, 2008
The SEC Bachstory, August 11, 2008
The SEC Bachstory, August 3, 2008
Harbach's Top 5 SEC Offensive Players by Position, July 27, 2008
Harbach's Top 5 SEC Defensive Players by Position, July 27, 2008
Harbach's Top SEC Games, July 13, 2008
Championship Game Hurts SEC, July 6, 2008
Harbach's 2008 SEC Preview, June 30, 2008
Let's Get This Started, June 9, 2008
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