Streak Intact, Mids Still Playing Underdogs

Sometimes I imagine college football games like those trigonometry problems you had in 10th grade (or, in my mathematically challenged case, 12th grade.) You know, the one about “Train A” or “Pully B” with plenty of anecdotal information that you’re supposed to know how to sift through.

The kind of information that pegs “Team A” as having won the last five matchups against “Team B,” including the most recent contest, which saw “Team A” (bad defense and all) win by eleven points. The kind of facts that attest to how “Team A” comes into the game having defeated two BCS conference teams which went to bowls last season, while “Team B” holds wins over a perennial a FCS doormat, a MWC conference middleweight, and a hurricane-displaced foe. The kind of non-essential notations that play-up the importance of the balance of recruiting between the two teams, holding fast to the premise that “Team A”, having won the last five matchups, now enjoys the benefit of superior athleticism and talent over “Team B.” All of course anecdotal, worthless, and a mere trick to distract you from the really important stuff.

Or maybe not.

Don’t try telling that to sportswriters and oddsmakers around the country however, who seem to have conferred favored status upon the latter of the two teams in lead-up to Saturday’s game, which, if I haven’t already made painfully clear, is NOT being played in the mysterious recesses of a high school mathematics classroom. This game rather is being played in Colorado Springs, Colorado, in the annual rivalry showdown between the Air Force Academy Falcons and the Naval Academy Midshipmen.

Ok, ok, I know. Air Force is far from the hapless “Team B” described above, and Navy isn’t exactly the juggernaut that the “Team A” moniker would imply. That’s not the point though. The point is that after five years of proving the critics wrong and sustaining a streak against perhaps their most hated rival, you would think that some of those critics would have finally been convinced. One would think, at least in theory, that after playing with one of the worst defenses in the entire FBS last season and still defeating the Falcons by eleven points that Navy, now much improved on defense, would stand a fairly good chance against an Air Force offense which lost essentially all of its playmakers from a year ago. Furthermore, one would almost expect that Navy, riding the confidence of an unprecedented upset of 15th ranked Wake Forest, would come into this game with a determined and veteran presence, not to mention a proven group of playmakers who are virtually indoctrinated from Day 1 that “though shalt win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.” All of this makes sense. It’s all perfectly rational, just like that Train which has to reach a speed of 22 mph on a 20% incline in order to keep from not rolling back down the mountain. But no, to the critcs of the college football world, that Train is destined to roll back down the hill, if for no other reason than up until five years ago that train could never make it up that pesky old hill.

Don’t get me wrong. Navy could very well lose this game, and certainly I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the Mids will walk all over the Falcons in Colorado Springs. Most Navy fans I’ve talked to anyway have their doubts about this game, acknowledging its usual hard-fought nature while quick to acknowledge the potency of the opponent. And why shouldn’t they? After all, Air Force is a much improved program under Troy Calhoun, with the 2008 Falcons having played superbly so far this season, especially viewed in light of the massive losses to graduation the team suffered after 2007. Still, it’s hard to fathom that the Naval Academy comes into this game as a six point underdog, especially considering only two of the last five games has been determined by more than six points. When you readily acknowledge the fact that Navy has increased its margin of victory over the Falcons each of the past two years (including in Falcon Stadium in 2006) the prospect of Air Force walking all over Navy becomes, in a word, slightly dumbfounding.

Maybe it’s that Paul Johnson is gone, or maybe it’s that the national media simply likes the idea of a bunch of guys with thunderbolts on their helmets beating guys with plain old gold on their helmets. Heck, maybe its just that people are unable to think outside the box of home field advantage or having two weeks to prepare for a game (yes Paul Rhodes, this is a direct reference to you), but for whatever reason it is, it’s one which doesn’t faze Ken Niumatalolo’s Navy club. After spending the last two games as decisive underdogs against Rutgers and Wake Forest the Mids have answered, knocking off both schools in back-to-back wins to climb to 3-2 on the year. With a 3-1 Air Force team in front of them the Mids don’t get any breaks, but rather face the familiar theme of coming into a high stakes matchup as an underdog. And at 12-4 as an away ‘dog since 2003, maybe Navy fans shouldn’t consider the team’s apparent lack of respect a bad thing.

Adam Nettina covers MAC and IND football for CollegeFootballNews.com