Pac-10 Gameday Dossier, Oct. 4

The Desperation Bowl in Berkeley, the Redemption Bowl at the Coliseum and the Bowl Bid Bowl in South Bend highlight the first Saturday of October in the Pac-10.

-The Biggest Game No One is Talking About
Overshadowed by USC’s loss, USC’s injuries, USC’s shakeups – well, pretty much everything USC does – is a game that could shape the direction of the Pac-10.

Arizona State heads to California with the season on the line for both teams.

A lackluster performance by Kevin Riley last week has reopened the Bears’ quarterback controversy, with Coach Jeff Tedford making no indication whether the redshirt sophomore or fifth-year senior Nate Longshore will start tomorrow.

The Sun Devils have been terrible for two straight games and are at risk for a possible five or six-loss season, unthinkable for a team expected to challenge for a Pac-10 title. Dennis Erickson’s effort to build a national power in Tempe looks more like the failed Dirk Koetter regime, but the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator at least managed to field competitive teams against BCS bowl teams like USC and LSU.

Both Erickson and Tedford are starting to feel some heat – nothing serious, mind you, especially compared to Washington Coach Ty Willingham – considering preseason hopes for 10 or more wins.

The winner gets a reprieve as he continues to push for the conference title.

The loser will have some explaining to do and a team to rescue from the precipice of real disaster.

-A Defining Moment in the Land of Troy
USC and the Holiday Bowl?

Doesn’t sound right, considering everything the Trojans have accomplished in the Pete Carroll era, does it?

But a loss to Oregon would virtually guarantee that the team’s streak of consecutive conference titles dating back to 2002 ends this year.

Clearing understanding the nature of the worst loss in that time span, Carroll demoted defensive tackle Averell Spicer and defensive end Everson Griffen and indicated a shakeup was coming in the questionable running back rotation. Mitch Mustain is again the No. 2 quarterback and playmaking senior defensive end/linebacker Clay Matthews will start.

Carroll is returning to what made the program the model of consistency, letting the players who stand out in practice and on game day see the field and putting them in a position to succeed.

Then again, USC has been in this position before, in 2003 after the conference opener at Cal and 2006 following a loss at Oregon State.

Don’t be shocked if these Trojans go on a major streak, as those teams did.

-Cardinal Coming Out Party?
Jim Harbaugh has stunned USC, regained the Axe and is putting together a stellar recruiting class, highlighted by the recent addition of four-star quarterback Josh Nunes.

Now the only remaining challenge is getting Stanford into a bowl game for the first time since 2001. Washington State is an almost guaranteed win, meaning the Cardinal must take two of three against Notre Dame on Saturday, Arizona and UCLA. Otherwise, they will need to score another upset in a nasty closing stretch.

The defense is sound and one-two punch of running backs Toby Gerhart and Anthony Kimble improving, meaning QB Tavita Pritchard cannot make crippling mistakes.

If reduced to a Pritchard-Jimmy Clausen duel, Stanford can put those December plans on hold for another year.

-Wildcat Nap
Arizona is lying in the weeds in the conference title race, not playing a legitimate challenger until hosting Cal on Nov. 18. The ‘Cats should be heading into that game 4-0 in the Pac-10, assuming they get part their tradition October swoon until Coach Mike Stoops, and have the offensive weaponry to sneak into a first-ever Rose Bowl bid.

However, Saturday’s game against outmanned Washington – playing without quarterback Jake Locker – represents the exact situation Arizona has wasted in the previous years. Can Stoops and his team maintain their composure as favorites?

-A Correction
In last week’s Dossier, I mistakenly cited USC freshman defensive tackle Armond Armstead as the player responsible for a personal foul that extended a drive. It was junior Averell Spicer.

My sincere apologies to Armond, his family and readers of CFN.

Pac-10 Picks (16-5 Straight up, 11-7 Against the spread)
USC 27 Oregon 23
Notre Dame 20 Stanford 10
UCLA 34 Washington State 13
Arizona State 27 California 17
Arizona 41 Washington 10