By
Brian Harbach
By
Russ Mitchell
3 SEC QUESTIONS THAT NAG MORE THAN YOUR EX
(i) What was the best performance from last weekend?
Russ Mitchell:
You could almost give it to the Arkansas defense. Yes, I know they gave up 38 points to Florida, but if you watched the game – the WHOLE game – you know that this thin and inexperienced defense gave up most of those in the fourth quarter when it was exhausted. Arkansas played inspired football against a very good Florida team, holding the Gators in check for three quarters; a big improvement. Alabama RB Glen Coffee was once again fantastic, running for 218 yards on 25 carries at home, including a 78 yards for ‘bama’s only offensive TD. But is there really any doubt – South Carolina’s embattled QB Chris Smelley had a career day, on the road, in conference, passing for 327 yards and 3 TDs against Ole Miss, and completing 63%.
Brian Harbach:
For weeks fans and the media have railed on Chris Smelley and for the most part he deserved the criticism he received. But after a huge game at Ole Miss this past weekend, he deserves a little bit of praise. Smelley was one of the biggest reasons for the Gamecocks struggles early this year with him consistently throwing interceptions at the worst possible times. QB play and the offensive line have been the downfall of South Carolina early in the year, but Smelley came through on the road against Ole Miss this past weekend.
Smelley completed 22 of 32 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns. He threw only one interception which was a big improvement for him since he had thrown six already this season. Smelley led the Gamecocks to their most important victory of the season and has kept them alive for a bowl game. After staring the year 1-2, South Carolina has won three straight and they travel to Kentucky this weekend.
(ii) After another thrilling win for Vanderbilt, where should they be ranked?
Mitchell:
Certainly ahead of Florida. Look, it’s a beauty contest right now, but Vandy has (i) fewer losses, (ii) more wins, (iii) more conference wins, and (iv) has beaten the only team they’ve both play (Ole Miss) – a game the Gators lost. Yet the ‘Dores are ranked 14 and the Gators are 12? Itll all be settled when they play each other in Gainesville in three weeks. Say what you will about Vandy’s legacy – the ‘Dores are 5-0 in the SEC, yet find themselves ranked below Florida, Georgia, and LSU – and it can be argued that Vandy has played a tougher schedule than the Tigers, and have more conference wins. The knock is on its Passing Offense, ranked third to last in the nation. But in those three conference wins (all against teams with winning records, btw), Vandy has just found ways to win. It’s hard to argue with "perfect" - and by definition, that's 5-0.
Harbach:
This may be the toughest question we have had to answer yet, Vanderbilt is a good team with a number of good wins, but how do you judge a team that wins ugly. I would say as the fifth best team in the conference it is fair to rank them anywhere between Florida and Auburn in the polls. If you want an actual number I would go with 20, looking at the AP poll the top 19 teams would be favored over Vanderbilt on a neutral site and the 20th ranked team is Auburn and we know they are better than Auburn right now. In order to rank Vandy higher they really need to look like a dominant team at some point. Right now they look very similar to Mississippi State from last season, MSU won some good games, but they never looked overly impressive doing it. Vandy is very much the same, until they start play well against SEC competition I think they will be a little overrated in the polls.
(iii) What every SEC fan should be talking about after Week 6, but isn’t?
Mitchell:
That leaves out anything to do with LSU v. Florida, Vandy or the Franklin firing… (i) Once again, John Park Wilson goes another game throwing fewer than 50% completions – for those of you keeping score at home, that’s three of six games. And the ‘bama Passing Offense is now ranked 104th, (ii) Staying with the ‘bama theme for a moment, its ‘vaunted’ defense isn’t ranked statistically in the top half of the nation for either Sacks or Tackles for Loss, and is #68 in Passing Defense. It’s Kicker (Leigh Tiffen) is about as consistent as a Britney Spears’ mental health checkup, and other than UGA, who has it played? Kentucky (who hasn’t played anyone), Arkansas, Western Kentucky, Tulane and an overrated Clemson team. Given the body of work, there is no way ‘bama is as good as Missouri or Oklahoma at this point in the season, (iii) The SEC now has three RBs averaging more than 100 ypg – joining LSU’s Charles Scott (134) is ‘bama’s Coffee (119) and Arkansas’ dynamic TB Michael Smith (106). If you've yet to see the tough Mr. Smith run, go out of your way to check him out, (iv) South Carolina still sports a great Pass Defense – currently ranked #2 in the nation, (v) Forget the announced attendance – if there were 85,000 Vol fans present last Saturday in KnoxsVegas, I’m Justin Timberlake – the East stadium (particularly under the luxury boxes) was E-M-P-T-Y, (vi) Sticking with things orange, Nick Stephens is the Vols QB the rest of the way, barring injury. He threw two completions of ~40+ yards – in one game, Vol fans! – and most throws were within a yard of the receiver, (vii) The best statistically ranked team in the SEC might be Florida – its lowest national ranking is only 64th – ironically, in Passing Offense, (viii) Once again, the SEC has no teams ranked in the Top 20 in the nation in Scoring Offense (Florida, #21) or Total Offense (LSU, #28), (ix) Not surprisingly, we do however have seven teams ranked in the Top 20 in Total Defense.
Harbach:
There were a number of huge story lines when Bobby Petrino took over as the head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks last December. Of course there was the fact that left the Atlanta Falcons in the middle of a poor season, he jumps around to different job more than Nick Saban has, but the story that mattered to SEC fans was that each year he would face Tommy Tuberville. Just to mention it for the two thousandth time, in 2003 a number of Auburn decision makers flew to Louisville to try to entice Bobby Petrino to take over as Auburn’s head coach. Of course they hadn’t fired the current head coach and when it got out Bobby Petrino denied it until he couldn’t deny it any longer.
Five years later, the now Arkansas Head Coach Bobby Petrino gets to face the coach he almost replaced in Jordan Hare stadium at Auburn. It will be interesting to see how the fans react to this especially considering how terrible the Auburn offense has looked through the first six games. Will they boo the man who almost replaced Tuberville? Will they cheer him because of his short success at Auburn as the offensive coordinator in 2002 or have the fans already forgotten about Jetgate? Both teams’ struggles the last couple weeks have made this game an afterthought especially with so many marquis national and SEC games going on this weekend. Regardless of what the nation thinks, SEC fans will want to see how this game plays out and how the coaches handle the first of many match ups against one another.
Extra Question: Did Tuberville do the right thing by firing Franklin?
Mitchell:
Yes and No. Don’t get stuck on the stats – watch the ball. It often takes awhile to integrate a new offense, but Chris Todd was solid in the LSU game – a game in which he was injured. Todd hasn’t looked anything like himself since. He has barely been able to throw a deep pass. Take the Vandy game - if you were watching the Vandy DBs in the second half, they never played past 35 yards. Indeed, they took each snap no further than 20 yards deep, and never back peddled more than 15. Auburn was fighting a Red Zone defense the entire half. That’s not Franklin’s fault. And with a healthy QB, his offense was more prolific in a comeback Peach Bowl victory over Clemson than any AU offense in 2007. Given that Tuberville backed his OC on Sunday, it’s clear there was a serious falling out either Monday or Tuesday. If that’s the case, fine – fire him. But don’t kid yourself – Franklin didn't suddenly wake up in 2008 and forget how to coach. The problems with Auburn's offense are deeper than the Offensive Coordinator. Now Tommy’s in charge, and he hasn’t had this much input on an offense in a long while... Be careful what you wish for, Auburn fans.
Harbach:
There is no question that Tommy Tuberville made the right decision to fire Tony Franklin, the decision was not based on the spread not working or a blow up between Tuberville and Franklin; it was done because Franklin wasn’t getting the job done as a play caller. If you watched the last three quarters of the Vanderbilt game it was painfully obvious that Franklin was in way over his head and he was unable to make any adjustments as the game went on. Changing an offense is going to have growing pains, penalties, turnovers, missed assignments are all a part of the learning process. The offense just wasn’t getting better and Franklin was not getting better. In every game since Franklin took over as the offensive coordinator the Tiger offense has gained less total yards and in 6 games this season has not improved one bit.
Auburn could have waited until the end of the season, but by doing this now Auburn has the first shot at any coordinator in the country and should hire a good one. Tuberville says they will not go away from the spread, this is probably a lie, but with the success occurring at Alabama this year and the spanking the Tigers got in recruiting last season, they could not afford to let this failed season get worse. This firing shows a loss to Vanderbilt is unacceptable, some one had to be accountable and that person deservedly was Tony Franklin.
IN FOCUS: Which Coach / Player is in the Spotlight this week?
Mitchell:
Florida v. LSU miscues. Ok, not a conventional answer – but you come here for the ‘deep’. Looking at Turnover Margins: UF is ranked #3 in the nation (with +1.6 /game, or +7), while LSU is tied for 85th (-0.5/game, or -2). LSU doesn’t have a single fumble recovery through four games. Moreover, LSU has a recent history of TOs in this series, with five in both 2005 and 2006 (going 1-1). In a game so evenly matched, this significant disparity midway through the season could be the telling factor.
Harbach:
Tim Tebow, QB (Jr.), Florida. This season we have seen way too much Clark Kent and not nearly enough Superman out of Tim Tebow. The major reason for this has been the lack of creative play calling by Urban Meyer, but from watching the games it seems that Florida might be holding something back. LSU will get Tebow’s best effort of the year and he needs it because he has not looked like the Tebow we saw last season. Tim looks hesitant and unsure of what he is doing, which is odd considering this is his third year in this offense. If Tebow can start to get comfortable with the short passing game against LSU he should be able to connect on a couple deep shots. Florida will sink or swim with Tebow in this game.
SEC POWER RANKINGS
Mitchell
1 LSU – Will the real Bayou Bengals please stand up
2 Alabama – If UF hadn’t struggled for 3Q Sat., ‘bama would have dropped
3 Florida – Florida needed a tired Arkansas team for a big Q4
4 Georgia – KnoMo’s (and other’s) health concerns are a moot issue; UT is plain bad
5 Vandy – No let down at MSU!
6 USC – (up from 9) Houston, we have a QB
7 Kentucky – Is Kentucky good, or was Alabama off Sat.? Likely both
8 Ole Miss – A week off to prepare for ‘bama
9 Auburn – (down from 6) Franklin who?
10 MSU – A week off to prep for first place Vandy
11 Arkansas – (up from 12) Solid D improvement in the Florida game. Baby steps.
12 Tennessee – (down from 11) At 58 looking 68, is Phil’s heart still in this (esp. recruiting)?
Harbach
1 LSU – Gators are hoping for the 2007 Tebow this weekend, not the 2008 version
2 Alabama – Good teams win close games, ignore the Kentucky final score
3 Georgia – Revenge game with the Vols this weekend
4 Florida – Still not playing great football with the Bengal Tigers coming to town
5 Vanderbilt – (up from 6)The Dores are looking to clinch a bowl game in Starkville
6 Auburn – (down from 5) Fighting with Tennessee for worst coached team in the league
7 South Carolina - (up from 8) Starting to get some offensive rhythm
8 Ole Miss – Tough home loss, turnovers continue to hurt the Rebels(down from 7)
9 Tennessee – The Vols may have a QB, but they still don’t have an offense
10 Kentucky – Good effort vs Alabama, but the SEC schedule is just starting to heat up
11 MSU – Two weeks to prepare for Vandy, how much did the Bulldogs improve?
12 Arkansas – Bobby Petrino returns to Auburn for the first time after the 2003 incident
THREE GAMES TO DVR
Mitchell:
1) No. 3 LSU (4-0) v. No. 12 Florida (4-1), October 11. If you watched the Arkansas/Florida game last weekend, Florida looked like it needed its own M*A*S*H unit – particularly star WR/RB Percy Harvin. Good to see Demps and Rainey running; but with little experience, they’re not the answer against LSU’s stout Defensive Line. All things being equal, turnovers could be the difference - as noted, UF is #3 in the nation (+7) and LSU #85 (-2). But all things aren’t equal - particularly at Offensive Line, where the Gators are seriously depleted. Tebow's play has been sporadic this year in large part because his line has been pasted together with bandages. Look for the Bayou Bengals to beat the Gators – literally…
LSU 21, UF 20
2) South Carolina (4-2) v. Kentucky (4-1), October 11. Another road game for Spurrier and Co. Coming off his stellar performance in Oxford, will QB Chris Smelley shine against a Kentucky Pass Defense still ranked #3 in the nation? How will the Cats regroup after playing just 1H of offense and barely loosing on the road in Tuscalooa? Bottom Line – this game will come down to Kentucky’s ability to run (we trust Spurrier’s ability to game plan passing better than Brooks). Kentucky is ranked just 66th in the nation in Rushing Offense. We’ll play the odds and take another underdog road team to win straight up…
USC 24, Kentucky 20
3) Arkansas (2-3) v. No. 23 Auburn (4-2), October 11. This game is far more intriguing than the UGA v. Tennessee matchup. As mentioned earlier, Arkansas played very well in the loss to Florida. Meanwhile, Auburn is going through turmoil. Remember, QB Chris Todd goes way back with fired OC Franklin – to High School. Auburn wins, but this could be much closer than expected, particularly through the first three quarters…
Auburn 31, Arkansas 17
Season Record: 13-5
Harbach:
1) LSU (4-0) v. Florida (4-1), October 11. CBS sure picked the right weekend to go with an SEC doubleheader because it is hard not to be fired up for a Florida/LSU game on primetime in front of a national television audience. This game is going to be a physical battle between the two most talented teams in the SEC. I like the fact that LSU has played a tough game at night this year and I don’t like Florida’s offense in any game where they go up against a physical defense. When the Gators play tough teams up front from the SEC West they struggle (Auburn 06/07, LSU 07, Ole Miss 08). I think this one is tied at the end of regulation and I like Les Miles to make another big decision to win the game.
LSU 28, Florida 24 OT
2) Tennessee (2-3) v. Georgia (4-1), October 11. Two weeks to stew over the embarrassing loss to Alabama should make the Bulldogs pretty motivated for this game against the Vols. Throw in the facts that the last two seasons UGA has been blown out by Tennessee and UT has looked awful all year long make this a must win game for Georgia. Mark Richt’s team can’t afford to come out flat and give Tennessee any life. Don’t expect much from the UGA offense in this one, Tennessee’s defense is very solid, but the UGA defense will cause a number of turnovers and help the dawgs get revenge.
Georgia 27, Tennessee 7
3) South Carolina (4-2) v. Kentucky (4-1), October 11. Kentucky built up their record on weak competition and now are starting to get onto the field with the big boys. The Wildcats played a close game against Alabama where the Tide was sloppy and uninterested, while the Gamecocks had a huge road win over Ole Miss to build some momentum. Carolina is in the process of turning their season around and the offense looks to have made some major strides. USC continues their winning ways and gets one step closer to a post season return in Lexington.
South Carolina 31, Kentucky 20
Season Record: 11-7
Yell at Brian: Brian Harbach
Yell at Russ: Russ Mitchell
Y’all Play Nice Week Six, October 2, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Five, September 25, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Four, September 18, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Three, September 11, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Two, September 4, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week One, August 27, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Preseason, August 21, 2008
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