By
Brian Harbach
By
Russ Mitchell
3 SEC QUESTIONS THAT NAG MORE THAN YOUR EX
(i) What was the best performance from last weekend?
Russ Mitchell:
It could be all the changes to the Power Rankings below… every team moved but ‘bama. Or perhaps it could go to South Carolina’s QB Stephen Garcia - Spurrier’s dog house was apparently occupied by the previous week’s star, Chris Smelley. So Garcia lit it up, going 10/14 for 169 and a 2H TD, in the come from behind win in Kentucky. Or it could go to MSU’s Anthony Dixon (27 for 107 yards) and a stout Bulldog D for knocking Vandy (107 total yards) out of the ranks of the unbeaten. Or it could go to anyone wearing a Gator jersey - throw a stick. But is there really any doubt - Mr. Smith Goes to Auburn! The nod this week goes to Arkansas RB Michael Smith. We told you to watch him last week, and the explosive sophomore didn’t disappoint - charging for 176 yards on 35 carries, and a TD, in the Hogs’ 25-22 road win in Auburn. Granted the Tiger’s D-line was a bit worn out, being it was on the field for ~60% of the game. But this was still one of the best D-line’s in the nation – not just the SEC. And Smith was magnificent!
Brian Harbach:
For a game that had no hype and no buzz, Auburn at Arkansas was nothing special to watch, but one thing was clear after the game ended and what we will see by the end of the season is how good a hire Bobby Petrino was for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Petrino has been destroyed in the media for bailing on the Falcons in the middle of the season, but while people attack his personality, they overlook the fact that the man can flat out coach. He isn’t the only NFL outcast in the SEC right now and Nick Saban is already making waves in his second year at Alabama.
The game plan that Petrino put in offensively for Auburn this week was amazing, the play calling was genius and no matter how bad Auburn looked, Arkansas made every correct call to win that game. Michael Smith is not overused, Casey Dick is not asked to do things he cannot do and the play calls in the red zone against the Tigers were perfect. Both of Casey Dick’s touchdowns, the zone read QB keeper and the wide receiver pass, were the right call that caught the Auburn defense totally off guard. Petrino may very well be the SEC’s next Spurrier, an offensive mind that is always a step ahead of the defense and a tactful play caller. He showed up Tommy Tuberville in a game that Tuberville wanted/needed to win and he showed the SEC he will make Arkansas a contender.
(ii) Does the LSU/UF result change the outlook of the rest of the SEC season?
Mitchell:
Not much. Contrary to popular belief, a second conference loss wouldn’t have eliminated Florida. Just like the Gators, UGA already has a conference loss to a Western team (‘bama). Had Florida lost to LSU (loss two) but beaten UGA head-to-head (UGA loss two), the Gators would still likely have been checkin’ Priceline for Atlanta. As for LSU, would whoever borrowed the Tigers D-line please return it before the South Carolina game? No questions asked. If the Tigers win in Columbia, and go on to beat UGA & ‘bama in Baton Rouge, there will be a rematch with either Florida or Georgia come December - so LSU still controls its own destiny.
(However, what’s getting little play is the ‘bama “breathing room”. Given the Black Hole collapse that is Auburn, and LSU’s first SEC loss, ‘bama can now enter the Baton Rouge game with a conference loss and still play in the SECCG if they beat the Bayou Bengals. Takes a bit of the edge off, doesn’t it. AND think deeper – given that, it now means Saban can spend a few extra moments game planning the LSU contest – and Saban doesn’t need too many extra ‘anythings’.)
The bigger issue is WHAT WAS THAT?! I’ve watched every down of every Florida game this season. Literally. And there is no one more surprised with the Gators’ performance than yours truly. It’s easy to say TOs made the difference, but that wasn’t the case - LSU’s two 1H TOs led to Florida’s only 1H punts. UF simply dominated in the trenches; LSU couldn’t adjust to that spread Gator O-line. That and the quick pass just ate LSU’s inexperienced secondary up. Just a shocking, dominant performance (yes, the Q4 points were inflated by Miles repeatedly going for it on fourth down on his own side of the field – but good for him - never punt down 20). Isn’t CFB great!
Harbach:
The LSU defensive performance was disappointing and frankly shocking, but the way Florida won the game puts every SEC team on notice that they are now a complete team. Florida has no weaknesses right now and with the play of the two freshmen running back, Jeffrey Demps and Chris Rainey, there is nothing to stop this team from winning out and playing in the national championship game. For weeks the Gators struggled and pressed through games as if they were waiting for a play or spark to light them on fire. It wasn’t one play or player, but the two freshmen have added a dimension to the team that Urban Meyer has never had.
The SEC is synonymous with speed, but any SEC fan would be impressed by the weapons the Gators possess and the speed of every position. The Gators are without a doubt the favorite to win the SEC and before this week it was impossible to say that. LSU is no doubt the most physical team in the SEC and they have the two best lines as well. Florida overwhelmed the LSU defensive front and the Bengal Tigers offensive line was unable to get anything going with their run game. This is what we expected from the Gators and it is good to see they are finally starting to deliver.
(iii) What should everyone be talking about, but isn’t after week 7?
Mitchell:
Well, that leaves out the Houdini act that is LSU’s D, what Meyer put in the Gatorade, and whether Tubby and Tubby are on the way out… (i) Alabama has managed to escape the injury bug for most of the season, and it looks like the bye week helped star OT Andre Smith, who’s nursing a bum elbow. He’ll have a brace on it Saturday, but is probable against Ole Miss (though he’s been wearing a black “no contact” jersey in practice), (ii) Speaking of injuries, UGA lost yet another lineman for the season, this time OL Vince Vance (knee). Some thought Vance was a backup tackle, but he actually started the season at OG. UGA is also without S Quntin Banks, who got dinged up in his return against UT, and LB Dannell Ellerbe, (iii) Thanks for the memories – after going 1 for 10 in third down conversions last week, Vandy will replace senior QB Chris Nickson with Mackenzi Adams. Bring on the Hedges!, (iv) After a relatively decent performance against UGA, the Vols will try to leverage new QB Nick Stephen’s strengths by running a five wide-out set. Good luck with that, (v) After the Florida shellacking, LSU isn’t ranked in the Top 30 in either Total Offense or Defense, and is 98th in TO margin (at -4), (vi) However, the Tigers’ next opponent, South Carolina, has an even worse TO margin (tied 107th), (vii) South Carolina and MSU are ranked #2 & #3 in the nation in Pass Defense, respectively, (viii) ‘bama and UGA are ranked #2 & #4 in the nation in Rush Defense, respectively, (ix) The conference has just one team in the Top 20 in Scoring Offense (Florida, #14), and none in Total Offense, (x) However, we have six teams in the Top 20 in Total Defense (USC, ‘bama, AU, UGA, UK and Florida).
Harbach:
One thing has become abundantly clear in the first seven weeks of the season and that is the SEC is still top to bottom the most competitive conference in the country. With all that competition it looks like we will have about 4 teams fighting it out for a conference championship and BCS at large game and there will be a number of teams fighting to stay in the bowl picture. We all know that Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU are the class of the conference right now, but the middle group of teams are going to have a number of 6-6 or 7-5 teams fighting over the bowl games with SEC ties.
Teams like South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and maybe even Arkansas are going to finish with anywhere from 5-7 wins and it is very possible at least half of these teams finish at 6-6. The Tennessee/MSU game this weekend is essentially a bowl elimination game and even the winning team is a long shot to make it to the post season. Last year South Carolina was left out with a 6-6 record, the same thing may end up happening to an SEC team in 2008 making every win more crucial to the middle teams of the SEC.
IN FOCUS: Which Coach / Player is in the Spotlight this week?
Mitchell:
Doug Mallory and Bradley Dale Peveto, Co-Defensive Coordinators, LSU. Ok, get a shoe box. Put everything you still have regarding the Florida game in it – papers, video, etc – get the team together, dig a hole, bury the shoebox. Fill the hole. Now step on it. As noted above, LSU still controls its own destiny, and the two supposedly hardest games are at home (UGA and ‘bama). If the two coaches can get the new secondary to grow up quickly, then perhaps the defensive line (supposedly one of the best in the nation) can get back to work. DT Ricky Jean-Francois remains questionable for the USC game; this after everything but his mouth missing the contest in Gainesville. South Carolina’s Rushing Offense is terrible; ranked 104th in the nation. But the Gamecocks’ passing attack is 33rd. BOTTOM LINE: The Tigers must stop the pass, which they couldn’t do last week in the loss to Florida. Lose to USC, and the much anticipated home stretch could become meaningless.
Harbach:
Dexter McCluster, WR (Jr.), Ole Miss. No team has challenged Alabama defensively all season and while UGA was the best team they have faced, Ole Miss’ offense brings a number of different challenges to the table. Dexter McCluster is a dynamic athlete and the Wild Rebel formation has caused problems for every team Ole Miss has faced. McCluster has had some issues holding onto the ball and the Rebels will need him to have a good game for the Rebels to keep it close against Alabama. Last year Houston Nutt’s offense put up 450 total yards in Tuscaloosa, obviously Arkansas was a more talented team, but the offense works against Nick Saban’s defense. McCluster will be the X factor in a game that will be close.
SEC POWER RANKINGS
Mitchell:
1 Florida – (up from 3) Wow! Where has THAT been?!
2 Alabama – The only 0 loss SEC team; played badly w/ Smith hurt against Tulane
3 Georgia – (up from 4) Another OL goes down… Should handle Geeks b/w Hedges
4 LSU – (down from 1) There’s a $100 reward for info leading to the return of the D-line
5 USC – (up from 6) A rising team playing a falling team… Upset alert?
6 Vandy – (down from 5) 1 for 10 in third downs against MSU
7 Ole Miss – (up from 8) What can Nutt do with a week off
8 Kentucky – (down from 7) 0-2 against opponents with a pulse
9 MSU – (up from 10) After 107 yards against Vandy, is Dixon ready to rumble?
10 Arkansas – (up from 11) Michael “Big Time” Smith
11 Tennessee – (down from 12) What’s $6M among friends?
12 Auburn – (down from 9) The ‘Spread Experiment’ could cost Tubby his job
Harbach:
1 Alabama – (up from 2) Well rested for the visiting Rebels
2 Florida – (up from 4) Finally we saw them play the way we expected in 2008
3 Georgia – Another loss to a knee injury, meat of the schedule is coming up
4 LSU – (down from 1) Gator loss didn’t hurt their chances at Atlanta
5 Vanderbilt – Tough loss at Starkville, but Adams at QB is the right decision
6 South Carolina – (up from 7) Schedule softened up and the record got better, how good is Garcia?
7 Ole Miss – (up from 8) Wild Rebel offense gets another top 5 team on the road
8 Arkansas – (up from 12) Bobby Petrino may be the new Spurrier
9 Kentucky – (up from 10) Tough matchup vs Arkansas, no SEC wins for the Wildcats yet
10 Auburn – (down from 6) This year is rivaling 2003 for Tuberville’s biggest meltdown
11 MSU – The Bulldogs are improving, but still have a ways to go
12 Tennessee – (down from 9) A loss to MSU would be unthinkable, even this year
THREE GAMES TO DVR
Mitchell:
1) No. 14 LSU (4-1) v. South Carolina (5-2), October 18. South Carolina has the momentum with four nice wins, including conference road W's against Ole Miss and UK. LSU meanwhile has misplaced its defense, and isn’t ranked in the Top 30 in either Total Offense or Defense. USC has the nation’s second best passing defense. Fortunately for LSU, they don’t have to pass. RUN CHARLES SCOTT LIKE A RENTED, RED-HEADED STEP MULE. And keep your wounded defense off the field for as long as possible. BTW Tigers, when on defense, please recognize that USC’s rushing attack is 107th in the nation, and it’s Steve Spurrier on the other sideline – play an extra defensive back. Hell, play two. You DO have extra defensive backs, right Tigers?...
LSU 27, South Carolina 14
2) No. 23 Vanderbilt (5-1) v. No. 9 Georgia (5-1), October 18. Vandy’s been a great story, but they were exposed last week with only 45 rushing yards, and they still rank near the bottom of the conference in both Offense and Defense (12th & 10th, respectively). On the surface, Vandy’s move to QB Adams was the correct one – but look a little deeper… Opponents now need fear the run even less! That, and UGA’s Run Defense is ranked #4 in the nation. Ow. 'course, Auburn had a great rush defense - then again, Auburn's no UGA. Look for the more experienced and talented Bulldogs to sink the ‘dores. Who knew Bulldogs could swim...
Georgia 41, Vanderbilt 21
3) Ole Miss (3-3) v. No. 2 Alabama (6-0), October 18. This game is hard to handicap for the single reason that we don’t know the health of OT Andre Smith. In the Tulane game, the uber-talented tackle sat - and we saw what happened. The Tide have skills, but little depth – certainly little experienced depth. They must stay healthy the rest of the way. Ole Miss will put up some points on an overrated Tide secondary, but as long as Smith is healthy, the Tide win for one simple reason: Ole Miss hasn’t played a single team with a good rushing attack. Memphis (#34), Wake Forest (#110), Samford, Vandy (#52), Florida (#24, though #54 into the Ole Miss game), and South Carolina (#104)… Alabama’s rushing attack is ranked #14. Roll Tide, as the saying goes…
Alabama 28, Ole Miss 14
Season Record: 14-7
Harbach:
1) LSU (4-1) v. South Carolina (5-2), October 18. South Carolina is a team that looks to be moving in the right direction. They may have found a quarterback, the young receivers are stepping up and Steve Spurrier Jr. is calling a much better game for the offense. LSU comes in embarrassed and frustrated, but they come to Columbia with a boatload of talent. LSU needs this game to keep pace with Alabama and they should have one of their best defensive efforts of the year. South Carolina continues to make mistakes turning the ball over and their kicking looks very suspect after the Kentucky game. LSU will take advantage of the South Carolina mistakes and leave Williams Brice Stadium with a win.
LSU 28, South Carolina 17
2) Vanderbilt (5-1) v. Georgia (5-1), October 18. For the second week in a row Vanderbilt plays a Bulldog team hungry for a win. MSU was desperate last week and UGA remembers the last time Vanderbilt was in Sanford Stadium. UGA had their homecoming ruined by a Commodore upset and should have defeated UGA last season as well in Nashville. Bobby Johnson made the tough, but correct decision to start Mackenzie Adams for an ineffective Chris Nickson, but it won’t help this week. UGA is too talented, too motivated and they can’t lose another game with the match up against Florida a couple weeks away.
Georgia 34, Vanderbilt 17
3) Ole Miss (3-3) v. Alabama (6-0), October 18. Ole Miss’ offense is going to move the ball on Alabama’s defense, the Wild Rebel should have a big game, but this one will come down to the mistakes the Rebels make. Alabama can make a couple mistake like they did against Kentucky a couple weeks ago and win this game. Ole Miss does not have that luxury. If Jevan Snead continues to throw picks and Dexter McCluster fumbles in key situations Ole Miss will not be in the game. Even limiting turnovers may not be enough to stop a dominant Alabama offensive line. The match up between Andre Smith and Greg Hardy will be classic, but Alabama will control the game by running the ball and win a close game.
Alabama 24, Ole Miss 20
Season Record: 13-8
Yell at Brian: Brian Harbach
Yell at Russ: Russ Mitchell
Y’all Play Nice Week Seven, October 9, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Six, October 2, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Five, September 25, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Four, September 18, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Three, September 11, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Two, September 4, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week One, August 27, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Preseason, August 21, 2008
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