After 2007's results were poor, I spent much of the offseason rehauling the system. Full details are, as always, confidential,
but I can mention that where there used to just be one model, now there are five distinct models, each of which contribute to the final picks.
The old model remains as one of the inputs, but with four additional models contributing there is significantly less noise,
and both the ratings and picks have become significantly more consistent.
One new change to the model is that in addition to money-line picks, there will now be against the spread picks as well.
Where last year the model advised an ATS pick of any game where it called an outright upset, this time around the system is
a true spread picking model, complete with the same low, medium and high confidence buckets as the money line picks.
As before, the money line picks operate on a basis of total money at stake. Money risked plus money that can be won will always add up to a constant number,
$5 for low confidence, $10 for medium confidence, and $15 for high confidence picks. For instance, a medium confidence pick against a -200 money line would
be risking $10 to win $5, and a medium confidence pick against a +200 money line would be to bet $5 to win $10.
Also, this year the NFL picking model will take a one-year hiatus. It has met with succes in the past, but right now I do not have the time to organize both models.
I will be tracking the NFL results and published odds, and after the season I will evaluate its effectiveness, and hopefully it will be back in 2009.