By
Brian Harbach
By
Russ Mitchell
3 SEC QUESTIONS THAT NAG MORE THAN YOUR EX
(i) What was the best performance from last weekend?
Russ Mitchell:
Once again, it could go to Arkansas RB Michael Smith –who set a career record with 192 yards in the road loss to Kentucky – and it was his replacement who made the key late game fumble that put the W in Wildcats. Staying with the Kentucky game, how ‘bout that UK WR(/QB) Randall Cobb! That freshman is going to leave a mark on the conference. But is there really any doubt - The nod this week goes to LSU DE Tyson Jackson. In a game that the Tigers just had to have, on the road, with no momentum and down by seven, Jackson emerged from the locker room and led his cohorts to a dominating 2H performance! LSU’s ‘Express’ DL comprised of four DEs stumped the Gamecocks, corralled a mobile Stephen Garcia, and completely turned the game. Jackson’s two sack night doesn’t adequately frame his impact, as he helped LSU hold USC to negative 13 rushing yards in the half (and just 42 total yards), and in the process, saved the Tigers’ season.
Brian Harbach:
College football is filled with players that you pull for even though you know they may not be an elite player at the next level. Great college football players are not always great professional football players and while Michael Smith’s stature may not impress NFL scouts, it intimidates the heck out of SEC defensive coordinators. For the second week in a row Smith rushed for over 175 yards against a very good SEC defense, two weeks ago he went off for 176 against Auburn and this week he rushed for 192 against Kentucky.
Smith is 5-7 and 170 pounds soaking wet and he is having an amazing first year as the starting running back for Arkansas. He has rushed for 791 yards in seven games and has over 1000 total yards rushing and receiving this season. He had an amazing outing albeit in a losing effort to Kentucky and accounted for both touchdowns against the Wildcats, one rushing and one receiving. He may not be the next Arkansas running back to be drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, but he could very well be the next Darren Sproles. He is a great college football player and he had one heck of a performance this weekend.
(ii) "Will there be an SEC team in the BCS National Championship Game?"
Mitchell:
No. We stated this back in July, and again in August: The SEC is simply too tough top to bottom, and the other conferences are too week (besides the Big 12). Specifically, no SEC team will traverse the season with less than two losses, and there will be too many one-loss teams that will get the nod. Given the relative ineptness of the conference this year to put up offensive numbers, we don’t trust the voters to put a two loss SEC team above a one loss team from another other BCS conference.
The only team that might emerge with a single loss could be Alabama; however, if that one loss comes against LSU, and LSU then loses to a two loss Florida team again in the SEC championship game, ‘bama will get passed over for the Matchup in Miami. Regardless of how much the entertainment media machine would love to see a Texas/Alabama contest.
Harbach:
For the people just looking for the fast answer, the answer is No. An SEC team will not play in the National Championship game this year because Alabama isn’t going to go undefeated and it would be shocking at this point to see any team in the SEC with less than two losses. We have four teams that are viewed as contenders right now and each one of them has a number of pit fall games left on their schedule and that is before they have to play in a championship game against a likely top ten opponent. Alabama probably has the easiest schedule the rest of the way, but the two road games they have left look like absolute battles (at Tennessee and at LSU).
The SEC teams can’t rely on a soft schedule and lack of a championship game like the Big 10 and Pac 10. Southern Cal’s schedule the rest of the year is an absolute joke, no ranked teams and nobody to challenge them when they are running up the score against weaker opponents. I wrote earlier in the year how the championship game hurts the SEC and this year may be a great example of the best of the SEC getting hurt by playing another team that may just be a small step below and pulling the upset. The odds are looking great for a Pac 10/Big 10 match up in the title game and it would not be surprising if we see a rematch. The depth and parity has never been more evident in the SEC than in 2008 and while it is the best football out there, it won’t be represented in Miami this January.
(iii) What should everyone be talking about, but isn’t after week 7?
Mitchell:
Well, that leaves out the LSU’s D-line (second week, though for different reasons), UGA v. LSU, and whether a referee should wrap up when he makes a tackle… (i) ‘bama coach Nick Saban is 7-0 for the first time in his HC career, (ii) Kentucky defense is getting really suspect, really quickly. With a nod to my Wildcat buddy Brian… the Hog ran 51 2H plays to UK’s 22, and had the ball for 24 of the half’s 30 minutes. However, (iii) the Wildcat’s are REALLY banged up going into its contest this Saturday in Gainesville… With a week off to rest/prepare, look for the Gators to win easily. Which is important because, (iv) Win or Lose, the Tigers are likely to beat the living daylights out of the Dawgs. LSU physical defense will hurt Georgia’s chances of winning the all important Cocktail game the following week, (v) You can’t blame the loss to Georgia on Vandy’s new starting QB Mackenzi Adams… The junior replacement did an adequate job between the Hedges, passing for 50%, with as many TDs and INTs (2). Not the greatest of performances, but not the worst either. Vandy gets a breather with Duke coming to town this Saturday, and the chance to get BOWL ELIGIBLE!, (vi) TOs played a key role in the Tigers win in Columbia (USC 3, LSU 1); the Cocks are now ranked 108th in the nation in takeaways, (vii) So you think the Vols really have a chance to beat Alabama? This year’s Vols? Even after last week’s 34-3 drubbing of MSU, Tennessee is ranked 85th in Rushing Offense, 96th in Passing Offense, and 106th in Total Offense. And they lead the conference in INTs with 14. Next up for ‘bama: Arkansas State, (viii) The SEC has three teams ranked in the Top 10 in Pass Defense (MSU, USC and UK). However, that may be because teams just run on ‘em –the trio are ranked 76th, 34th and 51st, respectively, against the run, (ix) Once again, the conference has just one team in the Top 20 in Scoring Offense (Florida, #16), and none in Total Offense, (x) However, we now have seven teams in the Top 20 in Total Defense (USC, UT, UGA, AU, UF, ‘bama, and UK), up from six last week – and MSU and LSU are sitting at 22 & 24!
Harbach:
One stat that caught my attention this week was Les Miles record after the Bengal Tigers lose a game. Les is now 7-0 in games after his team has lost the previous week at LSU. Miles is always given a hard time for his coaching abilities, even after winning a national championship last season. He takes a lot of risks and that comes off to some fans as stupid or arrogant, it actually may be both things, but he has a ton of faith in his coaches and more importantly his players. The 7-0 record after a loss shows one very important thing and that is he gets his team prepared after a let down. His teams are focused on the task at hand instead of focusing on what happened the previous week.
What is even more impressive is that some of those losses, especially last season, came in crucial games that LSU lost in overtime. To be able to re-focus a team after such difficult losses speaks volumes about how good a coach Miles is and how lucky LSU is to have him. After losing to Arkansas last season it looked like the team had no chance at a National Championship, they came out and won the SEC Championship and then demolished another overrated Ohio State team. This year after being humiliated in the Swamp, Miles got his team prepared to play a fired up South Carolina team that many people thought would beat LSU. Les coached them up and got them ready to play and LSU is still in the race for a SEC championship as well as a national title again.
IN FOCUS: Which Coach / Player is in the Spotlight this week?
Mitchell:
Defensive Line, LSU. So… which D-line is going to show up for Saturday’s throw down in the Bayou? The one that held the Gamecocks to 39 rushing yards and sacked Garcia six times? Or the one that allowed 51 points in Gainesville? They’ll be talking about this game for years to come – particularly in LA where support for this year’s defense has been sparse. Georgia will likely be prepared for LSU’s ‘Express’ package – however, we note that Georgia has only faced a top 20 rushing defense twice, with mixed results (‘bama #4; UT #14). As electric as Knowshon Moreno is, the RSSoph and his banged up O-line (see below) are only ranked 44th in the nation in Rushing Offense. Yup. BOTTOM LINE: This game will come down to this line stopping KnoMo, and putting pressure on Stafford. The D-line must do BOTH to win, particularly given the inexperience of the Tiger’s Secondary,.
Harbach:
The UGA Offensive Line . All eyes will be on the Georgia offensive line this weekend in Baton Rouge because this will be their biggest challenge of the season. LSU brings more depth along the defensive line than any team in the country and if Ricky Jean-Francois is back on the field that is just another problem for the Bulldog offensive linemen. Senior defensive end Tyson Jackson looked like a man possessed last weekend against South Carolina and he is probably salivating at the idea of lining up against the young and inexperienced UGA Tackles. Three Freshmen (Ben Jones, Justin Anderson and Cordy Glenn) and two sophomores (Clint Boling and Chris Davis) will have to play over their heads in a difficult environment if UGA wants to come out with a victory. UGA can win in Baton Rouge, but it all starts with their offensive line, the play the last couple weeks will not cut on Saturday and Mark Richt knows it.
SEC POWER RANKINGS
Mitchell
1 Florida – How many UK defenders are injured?
2 Alabama – How many squeakers until the Tide luck runs out?
3 Georgia – Really Georgia’s first real road test
4 LSU – Win this, or the excitement for the ‘bama games drops measurably
5 USC – No improvement for the Offensive Line ’08 vs. ‘07
6 Vandy – One win from bowl eligible
7 Kentucky – (up from 8) One win from bowl eligible
8 Ole Miss – (down from 7) You think the Hogs are looking forward to this?
9 Arkansas – (up from 10) Even with the loss, the Hogs stock rises
10 Tennessee – (down from 11) What’s $6M among friends
11 MSU – (up from 9) Wow, that was bad
12 Auburn – Don’t embarrass the conference
Harbach
1 Alabama – If this team could play 4 quarters they might be unstoppable
2 Florida – Focused on the Wildcats or thinking about a Cocktail Party?
3 Georgia – The start of a nasty 4 games stretch beings in Baton Rouge
4 LSU – Must beat UGA if they want a shot at playing in Atlanta
5 Vanderbilt – Who thought a game against Duke would be so important to any SEC team?
6 South Carolina – No harm in the LSU loss, Garcia looks like the future of South Carolina Football
7 Ole Miss – Poor play calling hurt the Rebels against Alabama
8 Kentucky – (up from 9) Great comeback win over Arkansas
9 Arkansas – (down from 8) Penalties are killing the Hogs, Michael Smith is a stud
10 Auburn – The Tigers unveil their new/old smash mouth offense tonight
11 Tennessee – (up from 12) Wasn’t there supposed to be a subpoena this week?
12 MSU – (down from 11) Not sure what to think of this team, definition of inconsistency
THREE GAMES TO DVR
Mitchell:
1) No. 7 Georgia (6-1) v. No. 13 LSU (5-1), October 25. UGA entered the season over-rated, and it remains so. It has played one team of note so far, and been exposed. The same could be said for the Tigers, although this game is being played in Tiger Stadium, where the New Ball Coach is virtually unbeaten. Look for the difference to come down to the trenches, where UGA is stretched its thinnest…
LSU 28, Georgia 24
2) No. 2 Alabama (7-0) v. Tennessee (3-4) October 25. Not a chance. Sure, the Tide must learn how to play without DT Mount Cody, but as noted earlier, Tennessee is ranked 85th in Rushing Offense, 96th in Passing Offense, and 106th in Total Offense. And they lead the conference in INTs with 14. Look for the Tide to add to that total…
Alabama 28, Tennessee 17
3) Auburn (4-3) v. West Virginia (4-2), October 23. Who would have thought that NEITHER of these teams would be ranked for this game?! Auburn has had a week off to… what? What could Auburn due with one week off to right this ship? If the Tigers come out in the Spread offense, they lose by 21. Play smash mouth football, and try to win with defense, and they lose by 3. Or you’d think. But one thing Tommy does do well is handle the big game. Big Game Tommy. With a week off, and considering how inept the Mountaineers have also been, AND that the SEC is more familiar with the Spread now then when WVU surprised UGA in the Sugar Bowl…
Auburn 15, West Virginia 9
Season Record: 16-8
Harbach:
1) Georgia (6-1) v. LSU (5-1), October 25. As mentioned about the Georgia offensive line is the most important part of this game, it won’t be Knowshon, it won’t be Stafford and it won’t be any one LSU player. This game will come down to how well an undermanned Bulldog offensive line will go up against the best defensive front in the SEC. As usual these games come down to the play of the big uglies and LSU has a better offensive and defensive line, plus they are playing at home. LSU should be able to run the ball and control the clock for most of this game, but UGA is more of a quick strike offense so this one will be close. LSU wins this one late in the fourth with a Colt David field goal.
LSU 31, Georgia 30
2) Alabama (7-0) v. Tennessee (3-4) October 25. This game has blowout written all over it, but so did the Tennessee/Georgia game and even though the UF/UT game was lopsided, Florida didn’t look particularly great against the Vols. Alabama comes in looking great in the first half of every game, barely trailing in any contest all season and with a veteran QB in John Parker Wilson who is not making mistakes. Tennessee should play their best game of the year, but it won’t be enough to stop the Tide. Alabama has let their opponents the last couple weeks stay close by turning the ball over late in games, that doesn’t happen this week and the Vols play well in a losing effort.
Alabama 20, Tennessee 17
3) Auburn (4-3) v. West Virginia (4-2), October 23. The loser of this game might be out of a job come December. Auburn fans are split on their opinion of Tuberville and WVU fans have not been pleased with the start of the Stewart era. This is a game that WVU should win and should win convincingly but similar to the Peach Bowl last year, Auburn’s opponent has no way to prepare for what the Tigers might do. They might be in the spread, they might bring back two tight ends, they might run the wishbone for all we know. This is going to be an ugly football game, expect a score from each team on defense or special teams and a bunch of field goals. Auburn’s defense is a little better than the Mountaineers and Tuberville does his best when backed into a corner so the Tigers come out on top Thursday night.
Auburn 16, West Virginia 14
Season Record: 16-8
Yell at Brian: Brian Harbach
Yell at Russ: Russ Mitchell
Y’all Play Nice Week Eight, October 2, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Seven, October 2, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Six, October 2, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Five, September 25, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Four, September 18, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Three, September 11, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week Two, September 4, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Week One, August 27, 2008
Y’all Play Nice Preseason, August 21, 2008
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