2008
BCS Analysis
Week 2
By
Pete Fiutak
BCS Rankings |
Computer
Rankings
- BCS Analysis
Week 1
There wasn't
a whole bunch of movement in the top of the rankings. The top
five teams, Texas, Alabama, Penn State, Oklahoma and USC all
stayed the same. Basically, the Texas win over Oklahoma State
did nothing but solidify the Longhorns at No. 1, Penn State
wasn't able to impress anyone with that win at Ohio State, at
least it didn't do enough to make a dent in Alabama's No. 2
spot, and Oklahoma and Georgia are lurking and ready to pounce.
|
The Top
25
-
Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn State
4. Oklahoma
5. USC
6. Georgia
7. Texas Tech
8. Florida
9. Oklahoma St
10. Utah
11. Boise State
12. Ohio State
13. TCU
14. Missouri
15. Florida State
16. Ball State
17. Minnesota
18. Tulsa
19. LSU
20. BYU
21. Michigan State
22. North Carolina
23. South Florida
24. Oregon
25. Connecticut |
However,
what's interesting to note is the rise of the non-BCS teams.
Utah has cracked the top ten, and considering TCU is 13th and
BYU 20th, is in range of making a big-time run for a very, very
high spot by winning out. The Georgia-Florida loser will most
certainly drop after this week, and Texas Tech still has to play
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas; at least two of those Big 12
teams will fall. There might be a ceiling on how high the Utes
can go, but if Boise State, currently at No. 11, wins out, could
there be two BCS busters this year? By rule, only one has to go
in, but it's possible for someone to want to take Boise State.
Unlikely, but possible. Meanwhile, Ball State is 16th and Tulsa
18th.
Also interesting is the lack of Big East, Pac 10 and ACC teams
in the top 25. Florida State is No. 15, while North Carolina is
No. 22. Neither of them appear to be any real threat to go
flying up the rankings. The Big East is having the biggest
problems with South Florida 23rd and Connecticut 25th. The West
Virginia win over Auburn apparently did nothing to move the
needle.
Basically, here's what you need to know ...
1.Texas and Alabama are in control of their own destinies for
the national title. If those two win out, they're in Miami on
January 8th. Penn State isn't likely to leapfrog either of the
two, so a Longhorn and/or a Tide loss is a must. Where this gets
interesting is if Texas Tech somehow wins out. With Texas up
next week and with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma still to play,
not to mention a Big 12 title game if the Red Raiders survive
the South, they'll almost certainly finish in the top two if
they finish unscathed.
2. Oklahoma is in trouble at four. It needs to win the Big 12
title to be in the discussion, but it needs Texas to lose twice
or for there to be a three-way tie and to have the highest
ranking of the three to represent the Big 12 South.
3. By rule, one non-BCS league team gets an automatic invite if it
finishes in the top 12 or if it finishes in the top 16 and a BCS
conference champion, like the Big East or ACC champion likely
will this season, finishes lower. It's almost a lock that there
will be a BCS buster for the third straight season.
Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account,
so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year
goes on, but once again, the two polls will be the biggest
factors.
The Big Winners: Florida (from 10th to 8th),
Florida State (25th to 15th), Minnesota (24th to 17th)
The Big Losers: Penn State (didn't budge from 3),
Ohio State (9th to 12th), South Florida (16th to 23rd)
1. Texas Score:
0.9981 Last Week: No. 1
Everyone's No. 1 team just solidified its spot, and even got a
little bit closer to a perfect score. No. 1 in both polls and
No. 1 by all six computers, there isn't any question who the
lead dog in the pack is. Not only is the top spot safe, it's not
going to budge as long as the wins keep on coming. There are
some dangerous hurdles ahead, don't gloss over trip to Kansas or
the rivalry showdown against a resurgent Texas A&M, so if this
really is going to be a second national title season in the last
four, Texas will have truly earned the shot. This isn't a cheap
No. 1.
predicted wins: at Texas Tech, Baylor, at
Kansas, Texas A&M, Big 12 championship (projected to be
Missouri)
predicted losses: none
predicted record: 13-0
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: at Texas Tech
2. Alabama Score:
0.9499 Last Week: No. 2
Not only did Alabama not lose any ground to Penn State after
the big Nittany Lion win at Ohio State, it actually moved ahead
a wee bit with a score of 0.9499 this week after scoring a
0.9487 last week. There's not a huge cushion over the Nittany
Lions, so the Tide can't lose to LSU, win the SEC title, and
leapfrog an unbeaten team to play for the national title.
However, if all things are equal, and it's down to a few
one-loss teams, the SEC champion will get the benefit of the
doubt after winning the last two national championships.
predicted wins: Arkansas State, at LSU, Mississippi
State, Auburn
predicted losses: SEC Championship (projected to
be Florida)
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
toughest test: at LSU
3. Penn State Score:
0.9257 Last Week: No. 3
Ohio State, Schmohio State, The win in Columbus impressed a
few voters who gave the Nittany Lions a vote for the top spot,
but overall, it didn't matter. The computers aren't impressed by
the weak schedule, with only one voting the Nittany Lions second
and the rest putting them at No. 3. While there might be a lot
of anger from the Penn State fans, there's no need to freak out
quite yet. Texas and Texas Tech still have some major battles to
face, while Alabama has to play at LSU, Auburn, and in the SEC
title game, if everything else works out. Penn State has to take
care of home. The game in Iowa City isn't going to be a walk in
the park, and Michigan State is certainly not going to be an
easy out.
predicted wins: at Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-0
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: at
Iowa
4.
Oklahoma Score:
0.8270 Last Week: No. 4
Get those Texas Tech pom-poms out. With Texas beating
Oklahoma State, the Sooners desperately need a Red Raider win
next week over Mack Brown's club with the hope of a three-way
tie to finish up the Big 12 season. Either that or hope for a
total Texas collapse with two losses in the final four games. OU
is 1.5 games behind the Longhorns, but in a three-way tie, the
highest ranked team represents the South for the title. Before
OU can worry about the scenarios, it has to start playing some
defense and it has to survive certain shootouts against Texas
A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
predicted wins: Nebraska, at Texas A&M,
Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
toughest test: at Oklahoma State
5. USC Score: 0.7822
Last Week: No. 5
Not enough things seem to be happening for USC to make a
major move. Struggling to beat Arizona, and a weak overall Pac
10, aren't helping the cause. The computers are starting to buy
in a little bit more than last week with the Trojans tied for
fourth, but there's no possible hope of a leapfrog over a
one-loss SEC champion, a one-loss Big 12 champion, and/or an
unbeaten Penn State. USC needed an Ohio State win over the
Nittany Lions. Forget moving up, staying in this spot could be a
problem with the impressive traffic in the rearview mirror. A
one-loss Florida or Georgia could take over this No. 5 spot next
week after the Cocktail Party, while Utah is going to be nipping
and the Trojans' heels relatively soon.
predicted wins: Washington, California, at Stanford, Notre
Dame, at UCLA
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
toughest test: California
6. Georgia Score: 0.7703
Last Week: No. 7
Everyone liked the explosive win at LSU, but this is still a
wait-and-see ranking before the Florida showdown. The computers
love the Dawgs, two have them ranked fourth and the other four
have them sixth, and the humans will most certainly follow with
a win next week. By winning out, the lowest they'll finish is
third, but they'd be the first ones in if there were slip ups
from Texas and Texas Tech.
predicted wins: at Kentucky, at Auburn, Georgia Tech
predicted losses: vs. Florida
predicted record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Capital One Bowl
toughest test: Florida
7. Texas Tech
Score: 0.7431
Last Week: No. 8
After the dominant win over Kansas, and with the offense
starting to hum, you'd think there would be a little bit of
respect for one of the four remaining unbeaten BCS teams. Not
quite. The rest of the schedule has stunk, and while the
computers haven't buried the Red Raiders, they weren't very
complimentary. It doesn't matter. Win the last four games, win
the Big 12 championship, play for the national title. It's that
simple.
predicted wins: Baylor, Oklahoma State
predicted losses: Texas, at Oklahoma
predicted record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Sun Bowl
toughest test: Texas
8. Florida Score:
0.7295 Last Week: No. 10
Read the Georgia blurb and apply the same to Florida.
However, the computers are angry with the Gators. The humans are
big fans, putting Urban Meyer's team just out side of the top
five, but the wires and gizmos are still not all that forgiving
for the Ole Miss loss with one computer ranking coming in at
17th. However, a win over Georgia next week would change
everything, and if the Gators win out, they'll have a great shot
to play for the whole ball of wax.
predicted wins: vs. Georgia, at Vanderbilt,
South Carolina, Citadel, at Florida State, SEC Championship
(projected to be Alabama)
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
toughest test: Georgia
9. Oklahoma State Score: 0.6746
Last Week: No. 6
The national title shot is off the table for the moment, but
that doesn't mean the Cowboys can't make things really
interesting. If they can beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma and finish
11-1, they'll almost certainly find their way into a BCS game of
some sort. Their only hope for the Big 12 title is if Texas
loses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State wins out impressively. On
the plus side, the computers respect the schedule with two of
them coming in with a No. 4 ranking. Remember, theoretically, if
Texas is No. 1, Oklahoma State could be No. 2.
predicted wins: Iowa State, at Texas Tech, at Colorado
predicted losses: at Texas Tech, Oklahoma
predicted record: 9-3
predicted bowl: Holiday Bowl
toughest test: Oklahoma
10. Utah Score: 0.6698
Last Week: No. 11
Here's the wild-card in the equation. The computers respect the
schedule, the Utes are tied with Oklahoma State for seventh in
the computer rankings, and the big guns, TCU and BYU, are still
left on the slate. The stakes couldn't be higher. If the Utes
win out, they'll get the nod over Boise State and will be this
year's BCS buster, and then things will get really interesting.
There might be a groundswell of support for a BCS championship
bid if the wins over the Horned Frogs and Cougars are
impressive, but almost everyone else would have to collapse. On
the flip side, one loss could mean a spot in one of the Mountain
West's cavalcade of mediocre bowl games.
predicted wins: at New Mexico, at San Diego State, BYU
predicted losses: TCU
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl:
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
toughest test: TCU
In Range
11. Boise State Score: 0.6362
12. Ohio State Score: 0.5373
13. TCU Score: 0.5065
14. Missouri Score: 0.4747
15. Florida State Score: 0.3383