Mitchell Blog: Fightin' for Bama #2

Given its schedule and statistical rankings, is 'bama the #2 in America?

In the past few days, on radio shows outside of the South, I’ve been asked repeatedly to defend why Alabama is ranked #2 in the land. I have put up the 'Good Fight' on behalf of the conference, but it’s getting harder and harder to justify that claim.

W-L Records

As has now been expressed to me ad nauseam, the Tide has only played two teams with winning records: UGA (7-1) and Kentucky (5-3). Yes, that Kentucky. The other six? Clemson (3-4), Tulane (2-5), Western Kentucky (2-6), Arkansas (3-5), Ole Miss (4-4), and Tennessee (3-5).

Even with that one game to Georgia, the combined W-L total of these teams played is 29-33; or a 47% winning percentage. However, to understand just how lopsided this is, factor out just that single game to Georgia and the winning percentage for the ‘bama schedule played drops to 41% (22-32).

But don’t stop there… Looking forward at the Tide schedule finds only LSU (5-2) and Arkansas State (4-3) with winning records, and ASU is a Sun Belt Conference team with losses to Memphis and UL-Lafayette (no offense, Cajuns). MSU (3-5) and AU (4-4) round it out. Thus, as it stands today, the combined W-L record for the ‘bama full schedule is 45-47 – under 50%. Ugh.

By comparison, as it stands today, Florida’s full schedule is 55-39 (59%). Texas is even better: 57-38 (60%). And say what you will about the PAC 10 (and it is weak), but five of the seven teams USC has played have winning records, and its full schedule as it stands today is 47-45 (51%).

Penn State has a schedule more like ‘bama… PSU has only played one team with a winning record (OSU). As it stands today, PSU’s full schedule is 46-51 (47%), with games remaining against mighty Big 10 threats Iowa (5-3) on the road, and Indiana (3-5) and MSU (7-2) at home.

Statistical Rankings

However, unlike the teams above, ‘bama can't point at the national rankings for support in anything other than Defense (#2 against the Run, #5 Total and #10 Scoring). And are these defensive rankings a reflection of Bama, or the weak schedule it has played? Regardless, and as my ears can attest, it is easy to argue that the #2 team in the land should be better balanced, especially given the sub-par schedule played so far.

The only good note on offense is Rushing (#18); after that, it gets bad quickly. The Tide is ranked #100 in Passing Offense, #60 in Total Offense, #54 in Pass Defense, and #64 in Sacks. An explanation for the poor Passing Offense could be the solid rushing attack – but that still doesn’t explain why the Total Offense is so poor.

By comparison, Florida is ranked in the top 31 in all but one significant statistical category (ironically, Passing Offense (#61)). Texas is top ten in most statistical categories except pass defense (#110?!). And USC is ranked in the top 25 in everything meaningful.

BOTTOM LINE

Clearly the loss to a woeful Oregon State team and a sub-par schedule should eliminate USC from contention... And PSU's schedule is appalling. But as I've heard all week, given Alabama’s soft schedule AND poor statistical positing, the Tide had better hope it runs the table. Otherwise, fans outside the South are going to have a valid argument - trust me, I've been hearing it.