2008
BCS Analysis
Week 3
By
Pete Fiutak
BCS Rankings |
Computer
Rankings
- BCS Analysis
Week 1 |
Week 2
The BCS
rankings over the first two weeks were about the voters and what
they liked. This week it was the rise of the machines.
|
The Top
25
-
Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Penn State
4. Texas
5. Florida
6. Oklahoma
7. USC
8. Utah
9. Oklahoma St
10. Boise State
11. Ohio State
12. TCU
13. Georgia
14. Missouri
15. BYU
16. LSU
17. Ball State
18. Michigan State
19. North Carolina
20. Georgia Tech
21. California
22. Florida State
23. Maryland
24. Northwestern
25. West Virginia |
The two human
polls have Alabama No. 1 and Penn State No. 2, but three of the
six computers have Texas Tech No. 1 and fired off a No. 2
ranking. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions got a second plays
ranking, two third spots, and three fourth spots. Texas is
currently the No. 3 team according to the computers, with the
Colley Matrix ignoring the talents of Graham Harrell and Michael
Crabtree by putting the Longhorns No. 1 and Texas Tech No. 5.
Once again, the ACC and Big East are basically non-existent.
West Virginia gets a token No. 25 spot, up from 31, and North
Carolina and Georgia Tech cracked the top 20 at 19th and 20th,
respectively. Meanwhile, three Mountain West teams are in the
top 15 (Utah at 8, TCU at 12, and BYU at 15), Boise State is up
to 10, and Ball State dropped a spot from 16 to 17. In other
words, it's the Big 12's world right now with five of the top 16
teams and everyone else is just taking up space.
Basically, here's what you need to know ...
1. Penn State needs a Texas Tech and/or an Alabama loss or it'll
be on the outside of the national championship looking in. Texas
Tech leapfrogged the Nittany Lions from seven to two, and that's
not going to change as long as the unbeatens stay unbeaten. No
one will really care about Penn State beating Iowa or Michigan
State, the two decent games left, while Texas Tech could end up
No. 1 by beating Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Bama's not budging
out of the top two if it wins out. This week's rankings also
confirms that Tide fans don't have to worry about getting passed
over for Penn State if both teams win out.
2. Oklahoma got its big break even though it dropped from four
to six. The Texas loss now opens the door for a possible spot in
the Big 12 championship and keeps the national title dreams
alive. Wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State might boost the
Sooners up the charts and past Texas.
3. By rule, one non-BCS league team gets an automatic invite if it
finishes in the top 12 or if it finishes in the top 16 and a BCS
conference champion, like the Big East or ACC champion likely
will this season, finishes lower. If two or more teams fit the
criteria, then the highest ranked team gets in, so
there's a chance that Boise State and Utah could each finish in
the top eight and one would still miss out on the fun.
Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account,
so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year
goes on, but once again, the two polls will be the biggest
factors.
The Big Winners: Texas Tech (from 7 to 2),
Oklahoma (getting the Texas loss even though OU dropped from 4
to 6), Florida (8 to 5)
The Big Losers: Penn State (didn't budge from 3
.... again), Georgia (6 to 13), Florida State (15 to 22)
1.
Alabama Score:
0.9747 Last Week: No. 2
After a week of Alabama talk radio shows and message boards
full of concerned Tide fans with conspiracy theories about a
media that wanted to see Joe Paterno in a national title game
against Texas, it's now all on Nick Saban and his team. If
Alabama goes 5-0 the rest of the way, it'll be the national
champion. The first place slot isn't as firm as it was for Texas
last week, there might be a drop to No. 2 if Texas Tech wins
out, but in this race, finishing second is every bit as good as
finishing first.
predicted wins: at LSU, Mississippi
State, Auburn
predicted losses: SEC Championship (projected to
be Florida)
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
toughest test: at LSU
2.
Texas Tech
Score: 0.9372
Last Week: No. 7
The Red Raiders didn't get too much respect from the human
polls, being ranked third behind Penn State, but the computers
respected the win over Texas. In fact, the computers have Tech
tied with Alabama for No. 1. Mike Leach's gang controls its own
destiny thanks to a tough finishing kick. There's no way, no how
Mike Leach and the gang aren't playing for the national title if
they beat Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and, most likely, Missouri.
predicted wins: Baylor, Oklahoma State
predicted losses: at Oklahoma
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Cotton Bowl
toughest test: at Oklahoma
3. Penn State Score:
0.9286 Last Week: No. 3
Penn State improved a little bit score-wise, but this week's
jump up from Alabama and Texas Tech proved that help is needed
to end up in the national title game. There's a strong enough
cushion between the Nittany Lions and the rest of the field to
not worry too much about being passed over by a one-loss team,
but the gap tightened
from last week. If Penn State doesn't slip up (don't dismiss
this week's game at Iowa), then everything else should be fine.
Alabama and Texas Tech have enough tough games left that one of
them, maybe both, will lose. Penn State fans, don't worry.
There's no way, no how your team won't be playing for the
national title if its one of the two remaining BCS league
unbeatens.
predicted wins: at Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-0
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: at
Iowa
4.
Texas Score:
0.8531 Last Week: No. 1
There's no time to be hanging the head after the heart-ripping
loss to Texas Tech. There's still everything to play for. Texas
still owns the tie-breaker over Oklahoma, but if there's a
three-way tie, the highest ranked team will play for the Big 12
title which would probably end up being OU. The Longhorns are a
mortal lock to play in a BCS game somewhere if they win out, and
the Big 12 title is still a distinct possibility. Fortunately,
the drop from one to four too far in the overall standings; the
Horns should be ready to pounce if any of the top three falter.
However, Florida, if it wins out, will go rocketing up the
charts and would likely bypass Texas unless Mack Brown and Colt
McCoy are off playing for the Big 12 title.
predicted wins: Baylor, at Kansas, Texas A&M
predicted losses: none
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
toughest test: at Kansas
5. Florida Score:
0.8268 Last Week: No. 5
Oh those fickle computers. They haven't liked Florida from
the start, and it's killing the overall ranking. The Gators are
ranked a rock-solid fourth in the human polls, but a very
distant fifth by the computers. However, that will all likely
change by winning out. Step one in the return to the second
national title game in three years happened when Texas lost to
Texas Tech, now a Red Raider loss would blast the door wide
open. Here's where the real fun begins. Let's say Penn State
wins out and Texas Tech loses. The Nittany Lions would get in,
but there would be a major argument between the one-loss SEC
champion and the one-loss Big 12 champion (if there is a
one-loss Big 12 champion) for that second slot. After the way
the last two national titles have gone, Florida might get the
benefit of the doubt, especially if it beats an unbeaten Alabama
for the SEC title.
predicted wins: at Vanderbilt,
South Carolina, Citadel, at Florida State, SEC Championship
(projected to be Alabama)
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: at Florida State
6.
Oklahoma
Score:
0.8220 Last Week: No. 4
Here's where this gets really, really tricky. If Oklahoma
loses again, it's out of the hunt for the Big 12 championship
and the national title. If it wins out and there's a three-way
tie with Texas and Texas Tech in the mix, most likely, OU would
be the highest ranked team and would represent the South in the
Big 12 Championship. However, the Sooners desperately need Texas
Tech to beat Oklahoma State this week. If the Cowboys beat the
Red Raiders, then OU loses the tie-breaker to Texas if both
teams win out. Understand? Basically, OU needs to win out and
then hope to get the right breaks. If nothing else, a BCS slot
is a given by going 11-1. It's going to take a whole slew of
things to happen to play for the national title.
predicted wins: at Texas A&M,
Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, Big 12 Championship (likely
Missouri)
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
toughest test: at Oklahoma State
7. USC
Score: 0.7551
Last Week: No. 5
It's going to take a major miracle for USC to play for the
national title. There's still an outside shot of missing out on
the Rose Bowl if Oregon State wins out, but that would just mean
the Trojans would go play in some other BCS game. After the
dominant win over Washington, USC dropped two spots and now has
to hope for everyone to lose. The human polls aren't giving any
love for the schedule, and the the computers are confirming the
disdain. Unfortunately for the Trojans, there aren't any big
statements on the schedule left to make.
predicted wins: California, at Stanford, Notre
Dame, at UCLA
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
toughest test: California
8. Utah Score: 0.6972
Last Week: No. 10
The BCS would much rather have the Utes in the Fiesta Bowl than
Boise State, and that'll happen if the they win out. If they
lose to TCU, it's over. The schedule hasn't been any big deal,
but the computers still respect the effort so far. With at least
two teams in the top seven guaranteed to lose another game, the
chance might be there to finish in the top five. Forget about
the national title game; there's too much traffic in the way.
predicted wins: at San Diego State, BYU
predicted losses: TCU
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl:
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
toughest test: TCU
9. Oklahoma State Score: 0.6660
Last Week: No. 9
Oklahoma State is blasting away on everyone, and it has a
great win against Missouri on the résumé, yet the BCS doesn't
seem to care. That'll change in a big way if it can beat Texas
Tech and Oklahoma. While it's unlikely the Cowboys will get the
benefit of the doubt in the rankings if there's a three-way tie
for the Big 12 South title, they can make things very
interesting and they can assure themselves of a BCS game by
going 11-1. The humans will make up the stagger if the computers
don't.
predicted wins: at Colorado
predicted losses: at Texas Tech, Oklahoma
predicted record: 9-3
predicted bowl: Holiday Bowl
toughest test: Oklahoma
10. Boise State Score: 0.6529
Last Week: No. 11
The schedule is a joke, but the computers are giving just
enough credit to keep the Broncos in the hunt. The fly in the
ointment will be the Mountain West champion. If Utah goes
unbeaten, it'll be in the top 12 and will likely be ranked ahead
of
the Broncos and will get the BCS bid. If TCU wins out, it's already
in the top 12, it'll be the likely top team unless Oklahoma ends up
playing in the Fiesta Bowl. The bowl won't want a repeat of the
Sooner blowout over the Horned Frogs and would likely want Boise
State in an attempt to recreate the magic of a few years ago. If
an SEC team plays for the national title, the Sugar Bowl will
get either the first or second pick of at-large teams, and it's
not going to take a WAC team for the second year in a row. The
Rose Bowl, if it loses Penn State, will grab the top available
SEC or Big 12 team in a heartbeat to play USC (it's not going to
take Ohio State).
predicted wins: Utah State, at Idaho, at Nevada, Fresno
State
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
toughest test: at Nevada
In Range
11. Ohio State Score: 0.5553
12. TCU Score: 0.5442
13. Georgia Score: 0.5362
14. Missouri Score: 0.4925
15. BYU Score: 0.3737