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Mr Pac-10’s Weekly Review

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Nov 5, 2008


Collegefootballnews’ Matthew Smith Reviews all the Pac-10 Games, Week Ten

Rising:
Cal: Ugly win, but this was an important win.
Stanford: Wazzu is terrible, but 58 points is still 58 points.

Hovering:
USC: Yawn.
Arizona St: There’s life in this team yet, but they really needed to win instead of merely come close.
Oregon St: This game was way too close for comfort.

Falling:
Washington: They still suck.
Washington St: Ditto.

@ Cal (-3) 26, Oregon 16
my pick: @ Cal 31, Oregon 27

What to take from this:
If you’re Oregon:

This was certainly an unpleasant loss, but I don’t think you can read much into it. A game in such horrific conditions really doesn’t tell you much. Both teams played sloppy, both teams got some big plays, but the Ducks didn’t have enough to pull it out. Oh well. They’re still 6-3, and their closing stretch isn’t that bad, with home games against Stanford and Arizona plus the Civil War in Corvallis. This is still an upper-level Pac-10 team (though they’ve clearly shown they’re not at the same level as Cal and USC), and barring something weird down the stretch they’re probably heading to a decent bowl game. For a very young team with most of the nasty games on the road, that’s a pretty respectable season.

If you’re Cal:
It sure wasn’t pretty, but the Bears will take it. They now have two huge road games that will determine whether they can make their way into the Holiday or maybe even the Rose Bowl, or if they’re going to fall back to the pack. They needed this win, but they really need to at least get one of the next two. Now comes the stretch that determines everything for this team.

@ Oregon St (-15) 27, @ Arizona St 25
my pick: @ Oregon St 35, Arizona St 21

What to take from this:
If you’re Arizona St:

Don’t stick a fork in this team just yet. Yes, they’re in a deep hole (of their own making), and yes, they do need to somehow pull off four straight including a nasty game at Arizona (who would love to knock them out of the postseason for a change), but it’s not over yet. They’ve got three extremely winnable games before the Wildcats, so if they can avoid tripping up, it’ll become a one-game season. And if they play with the same fire and can avoid the huge mistakes that have haunted them from time to time (10 penalties here didn’t help), maybe they can pull off the miracle comeback. It’s way too early for their fans to feel optimistic off of just one game, but make no mistake, there is still hope for this team.

If you’re Oregon St:
This was a fluke… right? ASU has been mediocre to awful during their losing streak, yet somehow found a way to very nearly pull off the upset. Forget competing for a Pac-10 title, if they play like this again they’re going to lose to the worst team left on their slate next week at the Rose Bowl. This was a game they absolutely, positively could not afford to lose (remember, they still haven’t hit six wins), and they very nearly did. Either this game lights a fire under them and they start playing a lot better or November is going to be a very unpleasant month.

@ USC (-46.5) 56, Washington 0
my pick: @ USC 41, Washington 3

What to take from this:
If you’re Washington:

So, how bout that coaching search? It’s obvious this team has given up on the season, so until the Apple Cup comes the only interesting thing to talk about with these guys is who’ll inherit this mess.

If you’re USC:
Major thrashing, no injuries, plenty of gametime for the benchwarmers. Check, check, and check. This team is well on pace for a BCS bid (most likely Rose, something else in the case of a miracle Oregon St run), and they just have to avoid screwing it up. The biggest threat they’ll face comes in next in the Cal Bears, a team USC should beat. Then again, most of the teams that beat them they ought to have beaten. In other words, they’re on track for a nice finish, but they still have to earn it.

@ Stanford (-30) 58, Washington St 0
my pick: @ Stanford 35, Washington St 10

What to take from this:

If you’re Washington St:
Nothing more can really be said at this point. Every time I think that just maybe they can at least do something reasonably respectable they go out and get demolished.

If you’re Stanford:
Yeah, the Cougars are terrible, but how many times in the past has Stanford blown this sort of game anyway (SJ St, Davis being the most obvious examples). Instead, they came in and took care of business. Every game left looks really hard, but they’ve got three shots. Each one will be really difficult, but they’ve got a puncher’s chance. Oregon and Cal have some vulnerabilities and aren’t very consistent, and USC isn’t completely unbeatable. At this point, they’re surprisingly close to 50% to pick one more up. I’d say more like 40%, but that’s still a very real chance.

Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS
Season: 43-13 SU, 25-27-2 ATS

National Games of the Week:

@ Texas Tech 39, Texas (-3) 33
my pick: Texas 37, @ Texas Tech 24

Florida (-6.5) 49, Georgia 10
my pick: Florida 35, Georgia 21

West Virginia (-3.5) 35, @ UConn 13
my pick: @ UConn 24, West Virginia 14

National Games Record:
This Week: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
Season: 18-15 SU, 13-19-1 ATS

Bad Lines

Iowa +2.5
Missed by 0.5 points

Ole Miss -6.5
Covered by 3.5 points

Kentucky +2.5
Covered by 3.5 points and outright upset

Florida St +2.5
Missed by 0.5 points

Troy -10
Missed by 11 points and outright upset

Virginia -2
Missed by 9 points and outright upset

Oklahoma St -30
Covered by 12 points

Baylor +21
Covered by 18 points

Colorado St +14
Covered by 11 points

Bad Lines Record:
This Week: 5-4
Season: 43-27-1

Mr Pac-10's 2008 Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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