Questions or comments? E-mail
me here
Prior to the start of the 2008 season, most fans and pundits expected a one to three-loss season for LSU. An almost completely inexperienced quarterback and the loss of several key veterans seemed too much for a schedule that would feature road games at Auburn and Florida and a home game against preseason No. 1 Georgia. Sure enough, two-thirds of the way through the season, LSU sits at 6-2 with losses to Florida and Georgia.
And yet, the season still feels somewhat lacking. The two losses featured a combined 102 points from the opposition. Wins over Mississippi State and Tulane were less than inspiring, and with Auburn falling flat, the biggest victory the Tigers can boast thus far is at unranked South Carolina. But LSU has their chance to bag some big game when the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide comes to Baton Rouge this weekend.
Which of course, brings to mind the season’s other big surprise – that former LSU head coach Nick Saban would have Alabama this good this quickly. It’s added an edge to the LSU fan base, which has watched how quickly elite-level programs like Auburn and Tennessee have come back to the pack. The Tigers’ performances in the team’s two previous big games have led to a strong sense of pessimism. Whether that is a symptom of merely a spoiled fan base is a question for another column, but there is no doubt that the script of this game has been flipped.
Last season, LSU traveled to Bryant-Denny Stadium ranked in the top five with the SEC Championship game firmly in sight and a trip to the BCS title game just off in the distance. LSU was firmly in the glare of the spotlight of its game against the former coach, who had his team playing fast and loose. The Tigers dominated statistically, but watched as turnovers and timely gaffes gave Alabama a lead late into the fourth quarter. But LSU rallied to another one of many dramatic victories en route to another national title, while the loss would set off a four-game losing streak that saw Bama drop to a second-straight Independence Bowl.
But this year, Alabama is the team with all eyes upon it. Number one, with a coach returning to the place where his reputation as a powerhouse- builder was created. The Crimson Tide are in the limelight, entering a game as the nation’s top-ranked team for the first time since Bear Bryant strolled the sidelines. LSU is still ranked, and a 6-2 record is certainly nothing to scoff at, but the reality is that division title is all but clinched for Bama, win or lose on Saturday.
But what that also means, is that the Tigers are playing with house money. For the first time, perhaps since he has arrived in Baton Rouge, Les Miles can truly tell his team that it is them against the world.
That isn’t to say that an LSU victory would be a particularly shocking upset, but the reality is that most of the national punditry – not to mention the bookies in Vegas – are rolling with the Tide. Alabama fans themselves seem to be accepting victory as all but a foregone conclusion.
The Tigers haven’t gotten the job done in either of their previous big games, with struggles from an inexperienced defense and a freshman quarterback. Alabama, on the other hand, ran over Clemson and Georgia (their biggest games to date) behind a suffocating rushing attack and big, physical offensive and defensive lines.
But there are chinks in that crimson armor. If you know what to look for.
Alabama’s rushing attack has been outstanding. Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram have been a bruising duo behind big, physical blockers Andre Smith and Antoine Caldwell. But the passing attack averages just 163 yards per game, 11th in the SEC and 102nd nationally. John Parker Wilson has been a relatively efficient quarterback, but he’s yet to face any situation where game-changing play is on his shoulders. And he’s still managed three games with a sub-50 completion percentage. Alabama’s offensive line, despite its dominant run-blocking, is sixth in the conference in sacks allowed, despite ranking just tenth in the league in total passing attempts.
The Bama defense has been far better than anybody anticipated this year, rated fourth nationally. But the whole appears somewhat greater than the sum of its parts. Alabama is right at the middle of the pack in the SEC in pass defense (185 yards per game) but allows a 65 yards rushing per game. The question is, are those numbers skewed by Bama’s propensity for blowing games open early (the Tide have outscored opponents in the first half 198-26).
In the Georgia and Clemson games Alabama opened up leads of 31-0 and 23-3. Knowshon Moreno carried the ball a mere nine times in that game (with 14 total rushing attempts for Georgia, excluding sacks), while Clemson’s combination of James Davis and C.J. Spiller had just eight combined carries (with 11 total rushes for the team). Meanwhile in a game against Ole Miss that went down to the wire, Bama allowed 158 yards on 32 attempts (only 11 yards under the Rebels’ average). As such, one could easily theorize that Alabama’s lofty statistics are somewhat tied (no pun intended) to kicking butt and taking names early, rendering the opposition to pass-first, catch-up mode.
Of course, whether LSU can exploit these items is a question unto itself. The Tigers’ defense emit’s a distinct odor of burnt toast when faced with a quality opponent. Linebacker and safety in particular have been trouble spot – which means that Bama’s Nick Walker could become a key for Jim McElwain. Walker has provided a quality short outlet off of play-action at times for Wilson, and has opened up the deeper passing game to Julio Jones. LSU’s corner play is actually better than the statistics indicate, and if Wilson does test them, sticky cover guys Jai Eugene and Patrick Peterson are due to make a play. The matchup that may bear the most attention is rush end Rahim Alem on Smith. Alem has blown by offensive tackles this season and Smith has struggled against fast ends. What is very clear is that LSU will have to knock Wilson on his butt to have any chance – and an underachieving defensive line will have to hold its own at the point of attack.
On offense, the Tiger running game has been the constant. Even in the aforementioned losses LSU has managed at least a respectable yardage total on the ground (Charles Scott even rushed for 150 on Georgia). LSU will be able to keep Alabama from bunching up too much on defense by spreading the field, and will make it tough to key on Scott by mixing in Keiland Williams.
The variable is Jarrett Lee, who has regressed in some ways since his poised and confident second half at Auburn. Lee has had a bad case of happy feet in the pocket, with a frustrating tendency to throw passes off his back foot, even when unpressured. His propensity for staring down targets has gotten the ire of coaches, fans and even his receivers – and has resulted in a mind-blowing five touchdown returns off his 10 interceptions this year. Under pressure, he tends to throw the ball away very quickly, but he doesn’t always get the ball out of bounds – which has resulted in interceptions. For the most part (as stated before the season began) he’s looked far more comfortable operating from under center and throwing off of play action. He throws a nice deep and intermediate ball, but struggles on the short routes, especially in the flat. As much as he can hurt the Tigers at times, Lee can still generate big plays to LSU’s speedy receivers. He gives them the best chance for victory.
Gary Crowton needs to take a page from McElwain and manage Lee as much as possible with simple reads and quick throws. But for that to be a possibility, the running game will have to be effective.
Saban has made his reputation as a mad blitzer with in-your-face man coverage, but don’t be surprised if he uses a lot of zone blitzes on Saturday. Watch the Alabama defense to show a heavy blitz only to back out of it at the snap, hoping to catch Lee throwing a hot read only to find a dropping linebacker or safety in the throwing lane. Look for one of Saban’s favorites, a seven-man blitz with quarters coverage, may get heavy use on third-and-long situations.
One potential X-factor: Alabama has allowed 1190 yards on kickoff returns this year. Trindon Holliday has been relatively kept in check by most teams this year, but he remains one of the nation’s most dangerous, and nothing would get Tiger Stadium rocking faster than a touchdown on special teams. Bama is also last in the conference in net punt average.
They key will be a fast start. An early touchdown, even if Bama answers, will keep fans in the game and show Alabama that there will be now blow-by and coast. If LSU can get an early lead, Death Valley will show that it can be every bit as loud with the sun up as when it’s down.