Fiu's Cavalcade of
Whimsy
Part 2
a.k.a.
Frank Costanza's Festivus Airing of the Grievances
By
Pete Fiutak
What's your beef? ... Fire
off your
thoughts
Past Whimsies
2006 Season |
2007 Season
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Preseason Cavalcade
|
Week 1
|
Week 2
|
Week 3
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Week 4
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Week 5
|
Week 6
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Week 7
|
Week 8
|
Week 9
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Week 10 |
Week 11, Part 1
The C.O.W. airing of the grievances followed by the feats of
strength
It’s not about what you believe, it’s about what you can prove. When it
comes to the BCS and the national championship, it’s about who
deserves to be in and not who everyone thinks should be in.
With that in mind, here’s the second annual look at the top ten teams
still in the hunt for the national title, and what needs to happen for
each to get in.
Oh sure, it’s all cut and dry at the moment; it’ll be the team that
emerges from the Big 12 South vs. the SEC champion for the national
title. Very simple, very easy … yeah, right.
Fact: Things change, no matter how obvious you think things are going to
turn out to be. The top ten teams according to the BCS at this exact
point last year: 1. LSU (before the loss to Arkansas), 2. Oregon (before
the Dennis Dixon injury), 3. Kansas, 4. Oklahoma (before the loss to
Texas Tech), 5. Missouri (remember, Mizzou would eventually be No. 1),
6. West Virginia (the Mountaineers couldn’t lose at home to Pitt,
right?), 7. Ohio State (yup … seventh), 8. Arizona State (what a
difference a year makes), 9. Georgia (Tennessee just wouldn’t lose), 10.
Virginia Tech (the Hokies finished the regular season No. 1 according to
the BCS computers).
Fact: Last year before the last week of the regular season, it was going
to be West Virginia vs. Missouri playing for the national title if the
Tigers could get by Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship. LSU was left
for dead after losing to Arkansas, and Ohio State needed a ton of help.
Fact: Prior to January 8th 2007, 99% of the population
outside of the greater Gainesville metropolitan area assumed there was
no need to play the 2006 national title and mentally handed it to Ohio
State.
Fact: ESPN, among others, were comparing the 2005 USC team to every
great dynasty in the history of mankind before Vince Young had something
to say about it.
Fact: Most believed Ohio State didn’t need to bother showing up to Tempe
on January 3rd, 2003 to face a Miami team considered to be among the
greatest of all-time.
1983 Miami vs. Nebraska. 2000 Oklahoma vs. Florida State. 1992 Alabama
vs. Miami. The list goes on and on of upsets that few believed could
possibly happen. So with that in mind, forget about what you think you
know, and what you think is right. Here are ten national title
contenders who are still in the hunt, or would like to be, what they
need to do to get a top two spot, and most importantly, how much they
deserve to be in the discussion.
10. Ball State
Ball State is currently ranked 14th
in the latest BCS rankings and has no shot whatsoever to play in the
national title game. After all, Hawaii didn’t get within 200 miles of
the BCS Championship Game last year finishing 10th in the
final BCS rankings, and that team actually had a few decent wins. The
Cardinals have a shot to finish the year as one of the few unbeatens,
but even if they’re the lone unbeaten, they might not even get into a
BCS game considering BYU would likely be ranked higher (assuming a
Cougar win over Utah). All the one-loss teams in the top 10 have to lose
again, two more times would be nice, and the unbeatens have to lose at
least once. I’ll try to do the impossible and map out a path for the
unbeaten Cardinals to play for the national title, and even then they’re
unlikely to come close. This is the only way Ball State will have an
argument.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Win out, including the MAC championship, and put up
twisted numbers along the way. 31-16 over Miami University isn’t going
to cut it. The Cardinals have to blast away on good Central Michigan and
Western Michigan teams, and everyone has to start noticing the margins
of victory. If Ball State wins out impressively, no one will have come
closer than 11 points of beating Nate Davis and crew.
Step Two: Texas Tech has to blow away Oklahoma, blow through
Baylor and the Big 12 title game, and be the unquestioned No. 1 team
going into the BCS Championship.
Step Three: Alabama has to lose out and Florida has to be upset
by South Carolina and Florida State before beating the Tide for the SEC
title.
Step Four: Texas has to get blown out by Texas A&M, and a loss at
Kansas wouldn’t hurt.
Step Five: BYU has to lose to Air Force and beat Utah
Step Six: USC has to lose. It doesn’t matter who it’s to. Losing
to Stanford, Notre Dame or UCLA would end it.
Step Seven: Boise State has to lose to Fresno State
Step Eight: Penn State has to lose to Michigan State
The Deserve Factor: It’s a tough sell even if everything breaks
the right way and Ball State is the lone unbeaten. The 111th
best schedule, playing in the MAC, and the non-conference wins over Navy
and Indiana aren’t going to get anyone excited about seeing the
Cardinals in the national championship. The BCS would probably take a
two-loss Penn State or even a three-loss SEC champion before picking the
Cardinals.
9. Boise State
Boise State should at least merit a little bit of consideration for a
spot in the national championship based on its body of work over the
last ten years. After all, take out USC, and the Broncos have won as
many BCS games over the last two seasons as everyone in the top eight.
Unfortunately, even with the classic win over Oklahoma in the 2007
Fiesta Bowl, Boise State still suffers from being in the WAC and still
doesn’t get a lick of respect.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Annihilate Idaho, Nevada, and Fresno State. Boise State
won’t finish first in the nation in any offensive category, but the
defense could challenge USC for the points allowed title. .
Step Two: Texas Tech has to blow away Oklahoma, blow through
Baylor and the Big 12 title game, and be the unquestioned No. 1 team
going into the BCS Championship.
Step Three: The SEC champion has to have three losses. The BCS
would probably put in a two-loss SEC team over an unbeaten Boise State.
Step Four: Texas has to get blown out by Texas A&M, and a loss at
Kansas wouldn’t hurt.
Step Five: BYU has to beat Utah.
Step Six: USC has to lose. It doesn’t matter who it’s to. Losing
to Stanford, Notre Dame or UCLA would end it.
Step Seven: Penn State has to lose to Michigan State
The Deserve Factor: If Boise State wins out, it’ll have won 108
games in the last 10 years. For you non-math majors, that’s 10.8 wins a
year over the course of a decade. WAC, schmack, you do that, you’ve
earned the right to have a shot to play for the national title if no one
else appears worthy. The win over Oregon in Eugene is the only win of
note this year, and the 81st ranked strength of schedule
won’t help, but if everyone else crashes and burns, Boise State is the
one non-BCS league team out there that would deserve the chance.
8. Penn State
The standard line after the Iowa loss was
that Penn State probably would’ve been left out of the national title
mix anyway. Wrong. Very wrong. If Texas Tech and/or Alabama lost at some
point, there was no way an unbeaten Penn State wouldn’t be playing for
the national title. The BCS hasn’t quite advanced to the point of not
putting a one-loss team in over an unbeaten team from a BCS conference.
Could you imagine how ballistic the Big Ten head honchos would’ve if
Penn State was passed over for a one-loss Florida or Oklahoma? That’s
obviously not a worry now.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Beat Indiana and Michigan State by a combined score of
110 to 3.
Step Two: The North has to win the Big 12 Championship, and there
has to be a general belief that you shouldn’t play for the national
title if you didn’t win your league title. It would help if the two top
Big 12 South teams that didn’t get into the Big 12 title game each had
two losses. In other words, the South has to be neutralized.
Step Three: The SEC champion has to have two losses. Florida and
Alabama, this year, wouldn’t get the benefit of the doubt break that LSU
received last year after a late-season upset loss.
Step Four: It would be a plus if BYU beat Utah, but it probably
wouldn’t matter. Penn State would still likely get in over an unbeaten
Utah and it would definitely be in over an unbeaten Boise State.
Step Five: USC has to lose again, or else everyone has to make a
big deal out of Penn State’s 45-14 win over Oregon State.
Step Six: Forgive me for taking the discussion here, but we are
talking about realistic possibilities. Joe Paterno’s health has to be a
question mark or he has to announce that this is his final season.
Step Seven: Iowa has to go nuts. Last week’s loss will look a
whole bunch better if the Hawkeyes finish 8-4 and close with blowouts
over Purdue and Minnesota.
The Deserve Factor: This isn’t as crazy as it might appear.
Remember, Ohio State was a distant seventh in the BCS rankings last year
at this time and it didn’t get anywhere near the respect that Penn State
receives. Compared to others on this list, the No. 68 schedule ranking
isn’t horrific, but being in the Big Ten hurts. When the dust settles
there will likely be wins over just four teams that’ll end up going
bowling, and the non-conference games against Coastal Carolina and
Temple would haunt the argument. However, it’s not like the Nittany
Lions got blasted by Iowa. It took a last-second field goal on the road
to lose, while a case could be made that the loss in Iowa City was
better than Florida’s loss at home to Ole Miss and USC’s loss at Oregon
State. The win at Ohio State was as good as anything Florida and Alabama
has come up with so far.
7. Utah
Ohio State got to the national title game from this spot last year and
it had a home loss to Illinois. The Utes’ win over TCU might have erased
any ill-will after close shaves against New Mexico and Air Force. There
are some big name wins on the résumé, beating Michigan to start the Rich
Rodriguez era and getting by Oregon State. However, and here’s the
problem for anyone who has been paying attention, there hasn’t been a
big win over a good team. Even so, if the Utes can beat BYU, they’ll
have enough decent wins to be in the hunt for one of the top two spots.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Destroy San Diego State by three touchdowns or more and
make it breezy, and the win over BYU has to be comfortable. The Cougars
might be 17th in the BCS standings, but they’re not getting
enough respect to give any voters on the right coast reason to stick an
unbeaten Utah in the national title game.
Step Two: The North has to win the Big 12 title. The one-loss Big
12 South teams have to be eliminated from the discussion by the Tigers’
winning the championship.
Step Three: The SEC champion must have two losses.
Step Four: The Mountain West has to come up with a big-time PR
campaign when it comes to USC, and the point has to be hammered home:
6-1. That’s the Mountain West’s record this year against the Pac 10.
Step Five: Utah has to start puffing its chest out. That’s not
really the team’s style, but Kyle Whittingham and the program has to
start selling it.
Step Six: Penn State has to lose to Michigan State, or at least
be unimpressive.
The Deserve Factor: The wins over Michigan, Air Force and New
Mexico might have been tight, but they were all on the road.
Realistically, if everything breaks the right way, Utah will still have
to do some lobbying to get into the national title, and it’ll take a
major miracle of breaks to get to Miami. Storyline-wise, it would help
if Florida gets into the BCS Championship Game and Alabama lost once
before getting to the title. The Urban Meyer vs. his old team angle
would seem just juicy enough to influence pollsters.
6. USC
USC appears to be the wedge issue this year. The defense has been a
killer, but the offense has been mediocre and the team hasn’t played a
decent team since the win over the Beanie-less Ohio State. Some
pollsters like the talent level and the speed and athleticism, while
others can’t get over the loss to a mediocre Oregon State. The poor Pac
10 has been a disaster, but the USC brand name should overcome the down
year for the league if the opening is there to play for the national
title. If this was Oregon State or Arizona in this position instead of
USC, there wouldn’t be any chance of playing in Miami. Track record
counts for something.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: USC has to win out and annihilate Notre Dame on
national TV.
Step Two: Oregon State needs lose again. USC needs to win the Pac
10 outright.
Step Three: Alabama has to win the SEC title and be unbeaten.
Florida has to be eliminated from the discussion.
Step Four: Missouri needs to win the Big 12 title and the USC
brand name has to overcome a one-loss team from the Big 12 South.
Step Five: The pollsters will need to be blinded so much by the
USC talent level that they ignore the Oregon State losses to both Penn
State and Utah.
Step Six: Penn State has to lose to Michigan State. This isn’t a
must, but it would help make things smoother.
Step Seven: Utah needs to lose to BYU. USC will have tough enough
time overcoming the Pac 10’s record against the Mountain West.
The Deserve Factor: No one’s questioning whether or not USC would
show up in the national title game. On talent and the past performances,
the Trojans might be the favorites against anyone other than Florida in
a BCS Championship Game. Could USC win the national title? Absolutely.
Does it deserve get the shot? Probably not this year. To anyone who has
watched Pac 10 football this year on a regular basis, the USC offense
hasn’t been at a high enough level to warrant the consideration for the
national title, but the defense has been unbelievable in picking up the
slack at times. Would the mediocre strength of schedule (currently 63rd)
matter all that much? Not for USC, but if Utah goes unbeaten and USC
gets in, the Mountain West will blow a gasket.
5. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is the new Georgia. Last year, it seemed like
everyone was waiting for Tennessee to blow it down the stretch so
Georgia could go off to play LSU for the SEC title. If the Dawgs had
won, they’d have been playing Ohio State for the national title, but
instead, they didn’t get their chance to represent the East and they
ended up taking it out on poor old Colt Brennan and Hawaii. This year,
the offense has been so amazing and the team so dominant at times that
no one would be too upset to see what Sam Bradford and company could do
in Miami.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Beat Texas Tech with ease and then get by Oklahoma
State on the road. Human pollsters have a funny way of moving teams up
when they win, and if OU blows out the Red Raiders and win impressively
in Stillwater, the polls will quickly change. If a three-way tie is
needed and it goes to the BCS rankings, expect OU to come out on top
despite being currently ranked behind Texas Tech and Texas.
Step Two: Win the Big 12 title. The Sooners probably can’t play
for the national title without winning the Big 12 championship. However
…
Step Three: … get a groundswell of respect after being hosed by
the quirky system (if OU doesn’t play for the Big 12 title).
The Deserve Factor: Picking a Big 12 South team to play for the
national title appears to be on the pollsters’ can-do list. If OU beats
Texas Tech and Texas wins the three-way tie-breaker and goes off to lose
to the North in the championship, the pollsters might simply want OU in.
To put this a different way, Texas will be out with two losses, and
Texas Tech will be ranked lower than the Sooners if it loses in Norman.
OU, with the one loss coming to Texas, would likely get the benefit of
the doubt over everyone but, maybe, USC. OU’s schedule at the moment is
the fifth toughest in America.
4. Florida
Is Florida this year’s LSU? Yeah, there was the loss to Ole Miss at
home, but that was a lifetime ago and it has been blown off by a public
that likes anything from the SEC. Tim Tebow is playing better, everyone
is healthy, and the defense is humming. This might be the nation’s most
complete team, and no one would have any problems putting it in a second
national title game in three years.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Beat South Carolina in Steve Spurrer’s return to The
Swamp ….
Step Two: … beat The Citadel ….
Step Three: … beat Florida State ….
Step Four: … beat Alabama ….
Step Five: ….prepare for Miami Beach.
The Deserve Factor: If everything else is equal, there’s no way,
no how the SEC champion doesn’t play for the national title. The Gators
have played the 13th toughest schedule, and when all is said
and done, they could close the SEC championship game having played as
many as 11 bowl bound teams (but it’ll more likely be nine). Florida is
one of three teams that controls its own national title destiny. Win
five in a row and it’ll be Urban Meyer’s second national title.
3. Texas
Texas is in a tough spot. Its one loss came on the road with Texas
Tech needing to pull off the greatest play in the history of its program
to win. However, the sandwich might be coming. If Texas Tech beats
Oklahoma, the Longhorns are out of the Big 12 title hunt and, almost
certainly, out of the national title hunt (unless there’s a ton of
help). If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, it’ll likely be
playing for the Big 12 title game and Texas will be squeezed out.
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Obliterate Kansas and Texas A&M. At this point, a
single-digit win might as well be a loss.
Step Two: Oklahoma has to be unimpressive and sloppy in an ugly
win over Texas Tech, and then it has to beat Oklahoma State.
Step Three: Texas has to be ranked highest in the BCS rankings
and it has to win the Big 12 championship game, OR …
Step Four: … … Texas gets squeezed out of the Big 12
Championship, the South representative loses, and the BCSers can’t find
anyone else worthy of playing the SEC champion for the national title.
The Deserve Factor: Absolutely. Having played the nation’s third
toughest schedule and having lost to Texas Tech in the final second
should be enough. The whole idea of a team needing to win the conference
championship game to play for the national title might be suspended for
a year because of the goofy tie-breaker rules. If it’s Missouri in the
title game, and it beats Oklahoma or Texas Tech, Texas will get all the
credit and all the benefit of the doubt after blowing away the Tigers
earlier in the year.
2. Texas Tech
Sometimes, it’s about when you lose as much as it’s about if you
lose. If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, it’s over. The pollsters would
rank OU higher than the Red Raiders, and the standings would follow
accordingly. However, Tech has it’s destiny in its hands. It’s this
simple …
What has to happen to play for the national title …
Step One: Beat Oklahoma …
Step Two: … beat Baylor ….
Step Three: … beat the North representative ….
Step Four: … go to Miami. OR …
Step Five: … Texas Tech loses a nail-biter to OU and gets
squeezed out of the Big 12 Championship, the South representative loses,
and the BCSers can’t find anyone else worthy of playing the SEC champion
for the national title.
Step Six: USC has to lose. It doesn’t matter who it’s to. Losing
to Stanford, Notre Dame or UCLA would end it.
Step Seven: Boise State has to lose to Fresno State
Step Eight: Penn State has to lose to Michigan State
The Deserve Factor: If Texas Tech can pull off the trio and beats
Texas, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma in a row, than it’ll be more than
worthy of playing for the national title. The joke of a non-conference
schedule is made up for by playing the nation’s 17th toughest
schedule overall
1. Alabama
Everyone knew Nick Saban would turn around the Alabama program and
make it a national title caliber superpower, but no one expected it all
to happen so fast. The national title is there for the taking, but the
Tide can’t afford a loss and hope to get in. One regular season gaffe
against Mississippi State or Auburn and there will a slew of Barbarians
at the gate for one of the coveted top two spots.
What has to happen to play for the national title
…
Step One: Beat Mississippi State …
Step Two: … beat Auburn
Step Three: … beat Florida.
Step Four: … go to Miami.
The Deserve Factor: It’s not the slam dunk you might think as far
as deserving to play for it all. Considering Clemson has been lousy and
the SEC has been mediocre, the Tide has the 96th toughest
schedule. Of course, if you’re the undefeated SEC champion, at this
point after the way the last two years have gone, you’re going off to
play for the national title no matter what else happens across the
college football landscape.