Instant Analysis: Cincinnati-Louisville

Cincinnati Bearcat head coach Brian Kelly has generated much discussion over the past few weeks, and that’s only because of the job openings at Tennessee and Clemson. Friday night in the Commonwealth of Kentucky, the boss Bearcat fueled a new kind of conversation, one that surrounds a Big East title and an Orange Bowl bid.

The citizens of the Queen City can begin to think the improbable: The state of Ohio could provide a BCS bowl team located in Cincinnati, and not Columbus. That scenario—ridiculous before the 2008 season started—could very easily play out. Yes, it’s not a misprint: After fighting past Louisville in a hard-hitting, rain-soaked slugfest, the Bearcats’ Nov. 22 game against Pittsburgh will offer the under-the-radar program a chance to gain a stranglehold on the Big East race, and steal the national spotlight. With long-term tomato can Syracuse the only other league opponent remaining on UC’s schedule, the prizefight with Pitt represents the last serious obstacle to a conference championship, and the BCS bowl bid that will accompany it. Kelly’s kids are one win away from the big time, and that’s because they survived on a night when they overcame a number of hardships.

The reason why Cincinnati finds itself so close to the promised land is that the Bearcats have been uncommonly resilient and resourceful. The team that had to overcome two quarterback injuries in its first several games lost starter Tony Pike in the fourth quarter against the homestanding Cards. With UC leading Louisville by a solitary point in the middle of the fourth quarter, Dustin Grutza filled in for his teammate and converted a third-and-5 on the way to a touchdown that cemented Cincinnati’s advantage. That kind of pick-up-the-slack production, up and down the Cincy roster, has defined a glorious year on the gridiron for the Bearcat bunch. As impressive as that gritty Grutza drive was, however, the visitors conquered the Cards in other ways as well.

The other particularly decisive moment in this contest came early in the second half, when the Bearcats—down 17-14—fumbled inside their own 10. A fired-up Louisville team that played hard and never quit on coach Steve Kragthorpe had a great chance to tally a touchdown and gain a two-possession lead on a rainy night. Thrust into the worst sudden-change situation imaginable, Cincy’s defense had to perform, and quickly, if the game was going to remain manageable. Sure enough, the backbone of the Bearcats got their defensive stop, and a Louisville field goal kept the Cats in the thick of the fight. When Pike—before his injury—threw a perfect touchdown pass to receiver Dominick Goodman later in the third quarter, UC gained a 21-20 lead instead of being down 24-21. When one then accounts for Pike’s injury, it’s important to realize that without that defensive stop early in the third quarter, Grutza might have had to lead that drive while behind on the scoreboard, and not ahead. The psychology on that drive would have been very different, but this Cincinnati team has been heading problems off at the pass all season long.

From a Louisville standpoint, the losing Cards—now 5-5—shouldn’t hang their heads after playing at an appreciably high level for most of the night. Cincinnati simply proved to be superior in key situations, and tougher in the red zone at both ends of the field. With that said, there is one aspect of this game the Cards will—and should—regret, and that’s the sequence of plays that sabotaged a drive early in the fourth quarter.

After picking off Pike on the play that knocked the Cincy signal caller out of the game, the Cards—down 21-20—smartly marched to the UC 14 with a little over 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Not equipped with an effective long-distance field goal kicker, Louisville merely needed to avoid losing yardage in order to have a good chance of taking the lead. A touchdown would have been preferred, of course, but at the very least, a field goal was a must for a team that’s lost close games in conference play this season.

Just when it seemed UL had the Bearcats in trouble, however, two penalties—a hold on a simple dive play, followed by a delay of game penalty due to a late audible by quarterback Hunter Cantwell—drove Louisville back to the Cincinnati 28. Kicker Ryan Payne did his job earlier in the evening on two 23-yard attempts, but this 45-yarder was above his pay grade. The kick—made worse because of a botched hold that forced Payne to hit the laces with his bare right foot, in the slashing rain—never had a chance, and that would turn out to be Louisville’s last best chance at victory. When Grutza came off the bench cold (and wet) to relieve his injured teammate and increase the margin to its final eight-point total, the Cards were done and dusted, just the latest stop in a trail of tears after a 5-2 start had everyone encouraged in Bluegrass country.

Cincinnati didn’t display a technical masterpiece in this game. The Bearcats missed a couple of field goals, dropped a fourth-down pass deep in Louisville territory, and coughed up two turnovers that put them behind the eight ball. Yet, for all their missteps, these Cincy strivers tightened up their ballhandling and ramped up their defensive intensity precisely when they had to. Timely red-zone stands and ballsy quarterbacking from two field generals gave Brian Kelly the kind of competitive courage that’s defined his team all season long. Now that Louisville has been laid low, all that remains for the Bearcats is a breakthrough against Pittsburgh. A win one week from now will make this team the big boy in the Big East.