2008
BCS Analysis
Week 5
By
Pete Fiutak
BCS Rankings |
Computer
Rankings
- BCS Analysis
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4
The big news
of the BCS week is that there really isn't any BCS news. Call
this a holding pattern week before the big showdowns to come
with Oklahoma hosting Texas Tech, Penn State welcoming MIchigan
State, and Alabama trying not to look past Auburn to the
showdown with Florida. Things are about to start shaking out in
a big way.
|
The
Top 25
-
Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. USC
7. Utah
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. Georgia
12. Oklahoma St
13. Missouri
14. BYU
15. Michigan St
16. TCU
17. Ball State
18. LSU
19. Cincinnati
20. Pitt
21. Oregon State
22. North Carolina
23. Miami
24. Oregon
25. Maryland |
For this
week, the market corrected itself a bit. The Coaches' Poll
smartened up and put Texas ahead of Oklahoma (smart because the
Longhorns beat the Sooners), and that made a little bit of a
different in the BCS rankings. Oklahoma State, who beat Missouri
at Missouri, also jumped up getting to 12 while the Tigers,
despite a dominant win over Iowa State, went to 13.
Ohio State and Georgia flip-flopped spots with the Buckeyes
getting into the top ten and the Dawgs moving to 11.
The most interesting aspect of the rankings continues to be the non-BCS conference teams.
Ball State, despite a win over Miami University, dropped from 14
to 17, while BYU, based on the win over Air Force, moved from 17
to 14 and is now in range to possibly make a huge leap if it can
beat No. 7 Utah. Remember, a non-BCS conference team in the top
12 gets an automatic spot in the BCS, or if it's in the top 16
and a BCS conference champion, like the Big East or ACC champion
probably will be, is out of the top 16. If there is more than
one non-BCS team that fits the criteria, the highest ranked one
is automatically in. The BCS doesn't have to take the other one.
Basically, here's what you need to know ...
1. As far as the national title is concerned, as long as the SEC
champion has one loss, or in the case of Alabama, no losses,
it'll play for the national title. The same goes for the Big 12
champion. Where the wrench could be thrown into the system,
outside of a major upset like Florida State beating Florida or
Alabama losing to Auburn, is if Missouri wins the Big 12
Championship. If that happens, then, depending on which Big 12
team is left out, there could be a major debate between a
one-loss team from the South that didn't get into the conference
title game and USC.
2. As far as the Big 12 South, if there's a three-way tie
between (the individual scenarios are below) Texas, Texas Tech,
and Oklahoma, the highest ranked team according to the BCS
standings will play Missouri. The pollsters always like to move
up teams that win, and punish teams that lose, so watch out for
Oklahoma to rocket up the charts if it beats Texas Tech and
Oklahoma State. Texas might be the one left without a chair when
the music stops.
3. Utah could turn out to have the biggest beef in the BCS bunch
if it beats BYU. The Utes have a better computer ranking than
USC, they beat Oregon State, USC lost to Oregon State, and the
Mountain West went 6-1 vs. the Pac 10. However, USC is No. 6 and
Utah No. 7.
4. For the automatic spot for the non-BCS team, if Utah beats
BYU, it'll be in. If BYU beats Utah, then the debate will begin
because the Cougars will have to go from 14 past Boise State at
nine to get the automatic bid. Ball State isn't even in the
picture checking in this week at 17. The next question will be
whether or not the BCS wants a second non-BCS conference team or
Ohio State.
Barring a total collapse, Florida and Alabama will be in the BCS,
and so will two Big 12 South teams (assuming Missouri doesn’t
win the Big 12 title). If Oregon State wins out and goes to the
Rose Bowl, and assuming USC doesn't blow it against Notre Dame
and UCLA, then the Pac 10 will get two teams in along with two
from the SEC, two from the Big 12, the Big Ten, Big East, and
ACC champions, and either Utah, BYU or Boise State. If USC wins
the Pac 10 title outright, meaning Oregon State loses, expect
Ohio State, if it beats Michigan, to get that 10th BCS slot.
One thing to remember, last year at this time Ohio State was 7th
and Oregon was second. Dennis Dixon hadn't been injured yet and
LSU hadn't lost to Arkansas. Things could get wackier before
they get clearer.
Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account,
so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year
goes on, but the two human polls will be the biggest
factors.
The Big Winners: Ohio State (moved from No. 11 to
No. 10), BYU 17 to 14) Oregon State (28 to 21), Maryland (40 to
25)
The Big Losers: Ball State (14 to 17), North
Carolina (16 to 22)
1. Alabama Score: 0.9787 Last
Week: No. 1
If Alabama beats Auburn and Florida, it's playing for the
national title, obviously. With the way the Gators are playing,
and the respect they're receiving, Bama could probably lose to
the Tigers and still play for the national title with a win in
the SEC title game. The computers have Texas Tech No. 1 and Bama
No. 2, but that doesn't really matter right now.
predicted wins Auburn
predicted losses: SEC Championship (Florida)
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
toughest test: SEC Championship vs. Florida
2. Texas Tech Score: 0.9698
Last Week: No. 2
No. 1 according the computers yet again, there's a chance
the Red Raiders could be No. 1 overall with a win over Oklahoma.
A win over the Sooners assures a spot in the Big 12 title game
no matter what happens against Baylor. However, a loss in Norman
might not just mean the national title dream would ball but
gone, but it could also mean the end of any Big 12 title hopes.
The Red Raiders would likely fall behind OU and Texas in the BCS
rankings with a loss to OU.
predicted wins: Baylor
predicted losses: at Oklahoma
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Cotton Bowl
toughest test: at Oklahoma
3. Texas Score:
0.8911 Last Week: No. 3
Texas blasted away on Kansas in a 35-7 win that was even more
impressive than the final score might indicate. However, even at
No. 3 in the BCS, the Longhorns will need help. They need
Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, although not too
impressively. Most likely, OU would jump up in the BCS standings
if it wins its final two games and Texas would be on the outside
of the Big 12 Championship looking in.
predicted wins: Texas A&M
predicted losses: none
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
toughest test: Texas A&M
4. Florida Score:
0.8755 Last Week: No. 4
There isn't a hotter, more complete team in America right
now. Everyone appears to be acknowledging that the Gators are
the best team, or a close second behind either Oklahoma or
Texas, but there's still that little matter of the loss to Ole
Miss that's providing a bit of a hesitation. It doesn't matter.
If Florida beats Citadel, Florida State and Alabama, it's
playing for the national title no matter what.
predicted wins: Citadel, at Florida
State, SEC Championship (Alabama)
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: SEC Championship vs. Alabama
5. Oklahoma Score:
0.8388 Last Week: No. 5
It's all right there for Oklahoma to take. If the Sooners
beat Texas Tech impressively and if they can get by Oklahoma
State, they'll almost certainly jump up past Texas in the BCS
rankings and into the Big 12 title game. With a win over
Missouri, the Sooners would be assured of a spot in the national
title. However, if they struggle in a win over Texas Tech,
things could get dicey. The humans don't need a reason to be
reminded that Texas beat OU by 10. At the moment, the computers
aren't all that impressed, but that'll change in a big hurry if
the Sooners win out.
predicted wins: Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, Big 12
Championship (Missouri)
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: at Oklahoma State
6. USC Score: 0.7873 Last Week:
No. 6
The style points need to start flowing. The win over
Stanford was nice, but to have any hope of getting into the
discussion for the national title there need to be blowouts of
mega proportions over Notre Dame and UCLA. If Oregon State wins
out and takes the Pac 10 title, forget the national title for
USC. There's no way a Big 12 team, like Texas, would get passed
over by the Trojans. USC needs either Florida State to beat
Florida, and for Florida to beat Alabama, or for Missouri to win
the Big 12 title to get into the discussion. The humans will be
big fans, but the computers don't like the Trojans, ranking them
8th.
predicted wins: Notre Dame, at UCLA
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
toughest test: at Stanford
7. Utah Score: 0.7643 Last
Week: No. 7
No. 4 in the computer polls and with a win over Oregon State, Utah has a
right to be grumpy that it's not ahead of USC. However, at the
moment, all anyone around Salt Lake City cares about it that big
date with BYU. Win that, and then the politicking can start. The
humans need to come around with the Harris Poll liking Penn
State and USC better, and the Coaches' Poll keeping USC one spot
ahead.
predicted wins: BYU
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-0
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
toughest test: BYU
8. Penn State Score: 0.6957
Last Week: No. 8
It's a simple formula for the Nittany Lions: beat Michigan
State and go to Pasadena. However, there still might be very
feint national title hopes. If the Nittany Lions blow out the
Spartans, they could make a bit of a jump in the human polls no
matter what Utah does to BYU. The argument would be that Penn
State blasted Oregon State while USC lost in Corvallis, and the
win over Ohio State, who had Beanie Wells, was in Columbus,
while the Trojans beat the Beanie-less Buckeyes in L.A. Try this
scenario: Penn State blows out Michigan State and moves past USC
and Utah and Penn State jumps into the No. 5 slot ahead of the
Oklahoma/ Texas Tech loser. Florida gets upset by Florida State,
but beats Alabama, and Missouri wins the Big 12 title. Penn
State could pull an Ohio State of last year and slip into the
national title game.
predicted wins: Indiana, Michigan State
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
toughest test: at Iowa
9. Boise
State Score: 0.6559 Last Week: No. 9
Boise State has to blow out Nevada and Fresno State and hope
for the best. In a perfect world, BYU beats Utah by a last
second field goal in a sloppy, ugly game, and Boise State stays
one spot ahead of BYU. It'll be hard to sell a one-loss Mountain
West team for the open, automatic BCS spot over an unbeaten
Boise State program that won the Fiesta Bowl two years ago.
predicted wins: aat Nevada, Fresno State
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-0
predicted bowl: Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl
toughest test: at Nevada
10. Ohio State Score: 0.6154 Last Week: No. 11
Ohio State moved from 11 to 10 after running over Illinois,
and now it's in a great position for what will be the final open
BCS spot. The humans aren't going to put the Buckeyes ahead of
an unbeaten Boise State, but the BCS would jump all over the Jim
Tressel's bunch over the Broncos for an at-large bid. What's
interesting is that the computers like Georgia better, a lot
better, but the humans didn't seem to like how tough it was to
get by Auburn. It's a razor-thin margin, 0.003, between the two
teams.
predicted wins: Michigan
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Sugar
toughest test: Michigan
In Range
11. Georgia Score: 0.6129
12. Oklahoma State Score: 0.5672
13. Missouri Score: 0.5600
14. BYU Score: 0.4393
15. Michigan State Score: 0.4021