Instant Analysis: Miami-Georgia Tech

Already banged up to begin with, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets lost a number of additional players during Thursday night’s game against Miami. With the way their offense hummed against the Canes, it didn’t matter. Coach Paul Johnson’s triple-option attack flummoxed Miami’s formidable defense to give a commonwealth a simple message: “Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.”

More on the crowded ACC Coastal Division in a moment. In order for this race to remain chaotic and benefit Virginians in both Charlottesville and Blacksburg, the Canes had to fall in Atlanta first. A Miami win in Bobby Dodd Stadium would have enabled coach Randy Shannon’s recruits to look down on the rest of their division, with a home game against North Carolina State remaining on their schedule. By jumping the Jackets, Miami would have surmounted its last imposing test on the road to the program’s first-ever ACC Coastal championship. It was up to the Rambling Wreck to live up to its name if this division was to remain up for grabs.

Sure enough, Georgia Tech caused its share of wreckage, yanking “The U” right out of the catbird seat in this endlessly chaotic division. Before getting to a ton of tiebreakers, it’s worth noting how the Jackets of Johnson did the deed.

Before this game started, many observers thought that Georgia Tech’s best chance for victory was to lean on its defense against the Canes’ pair of young quarterbacks. And while it was true that a pair of second-quarter interceptions enabled the Jackets to establish and then maintain a multi-possession lead, it was more than a little shocking to see Tech trample Miami’s athletic and powerful defense, a unit that had not allowed more than 17 points in each of its past five games. With the way Miami’s defense had been dealing out the punishment to opposing offenses, it didn’t seem likely that Tech could ring up huge numbers against Shannon’s shutdown stars.

After this 60-minute slaughter, however, it’s clear that the Yellow Jackets turned conventional wisdom on its head… and made befuddled Miami linebackers and safeties turn their heads toward the goal line, watching the backs of white-shirted runners as they strolled to the end zone.

The same basic sequence occurred over and over again in this Thursday night throwdown: Miami would lack proper defensive alignment; Tech quarterback Josh Nesbitt—who came into this contest nursing an injury—would make the right read at the line of scrimmage; a Tech ballcarrier would find a hole and get through the initial point of contact; and, finally, Miami’s linebackers and safeties would overrun their gaps, producing breakaway runs for the Yellow Jackets. Whether it was Nesbitt, running back Jonathan Dwyer—who was knocked out of the game late in the second quarter—or even fullback Lucas Cox, Tech sprang its backs to big-gainers by exploiting deficient reads and faulty positioning on the part of Miami’s defense. When Yellow Jacket runners got five yards past the line, no Hurricane safety was there to provide run support. This pattern continued all night long, making Tech’s offense even more of a difference-maker than its already-stout defense. The win itself was not a surprise for Tech, but the margin of victory—just like the home team’s rushing output of over 400 yards—was not expected near the end of an ACC season defined by parity.

Now, with this Rambling Wreck rout in the books, it’s time to face facts in the ACC Coastal: If favorites win out this Saturday and again in week 14, a four-way tie will emerge at the top of this division. Here’s how the tiebreakers will affect the remainder of this race:

With Virginia and Virginia Tech playing each other on Nov. 29, it’s not likely that a five-team tie will take place, but it is mathematically possible. All things considered, though, a four-team traffic jam seems not just possible, but likely, at this point in time. Without further ado, then, these are the scenarios you need to know about:

First, let’s just declare who would win certain multi-team ties.

In the case of a four-way tie involving Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia, the Cavaliers would win based on the ACC’s first two tiebreaker criteria, head-to-head wins and divisional records.

In the case of a four-way tie involving Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech, the Hokies would win for the same set of reasons.
Based on these two hypotheticals, one can immediately see why Virginians of all ages are thinking that Christmas has come early. More and more, it seems that the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner will ultimately claim the Coastal. Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina will all need something wacky to happen. Need a roadmap to Tampa, site of the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 6? Here it is for the ACC Coastal competitors outside Virginia:

Miami has the toughest road, because Georgia Tech’s win ensures that the Canes and Jackets will be tied in the conference standings. Given the Yellow Jackets’ head-to-head win over Miami, Randy Shannon’s squad needs to get into a three-team tie with Virginia, and no one else. If Miami, Tech and UVA are the three teams tied atop the Coastal, Miami would go because of even head-to-heads and a better division record than Georgia Tech. Therefore, if you’re a Miami fan, you need to beat N.C. State, have Virginia win out, and have North Carolina lose one of its two remaining games, against N.C. State and Duke.

Georgia Tech—due to this win over Miami—would benefit from a two-way tie with the Canes. If North Carolina loses once, and the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner loses its other remaining game (the Cavs host Clemson this Saturday; Tech hosts Duke), the Yellow Jackets will travel to Tampa, provided that Miami takes care of business against N.C. State. Due to the worst division record of any ACC Coastal contender, Tech would not win any three- or four-team tie. All in all, Miami and Georgia Tech are the teams whose chances are particularly slim.

North Carolina, due to head-to-head wins, would love to get into a three-team tie with Miami and Georgia Tech. That scenario would get the Tar Heels into the ACC title tilt. In order for that to happen, coach Butch Davis would need his team to win out, while seeing Virginia and Virginia Tech split their remaining games. Just like Georgia Tech, UNC needs one of the Virginia schools to stumble.

This brings us to the kids from the commonwealth, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The Cavs and Hokies both beat North Carolina and Georgia Tech, the reason why they stand above their competitors in most of these ACC Coastal tiebreaker scenarios. If Virginia wins out, only one realistic scenario could prevent Al Groh’s guys from claiming the Coastal: North Carolina losing one of its final two games, creating that three-way tie among Miami, Georgia Tech, and the Cavs themselves. Miami would advance in that case. But as long as the Tar Heels take care of their in-state rivalries, the Cavs would have the inside track to Tampa.

This leaves us with the team that completely controls its fate in the ACC Coastal Division: Virginia Tech. If Frank Beamer’s boys win out, the Hokies will be in Tampa. Because Virginia Tech has the best division record of any ACC Coastal team, there’s no three- or four-team tie it could lose. A win over Duke this Saturday will turn the Nov. 29 head-knocker with Virginia into a divisional championship game for the defending conference champions.
If your head’s spinning after all those tiebreakers, just settle down and absorb these simple facts in making sense of the ACC Coastal:

1) Virginia Tech is the master of its fate. 2) Virginia is in solid position, but needs North Carolina to avoid an upset loss. 3) UNC and Georgia Tech need the Virginia schools to crumble this Saturday, with the Yellow Jackets also needing Carolina to crack under pressure. 4) Miami joins Georgia Tech on the ropes, while the Virginia schools lick their chops and Carolina hopes for an opening.

Georgia Tech beat Miami this Thursday night, but on a larger level, Paul Johnson’s Jackets enabled the people of Virginia—at one school or another—to claim the ACC Coastal crown and fly to Florida on the first weekend of December. The only question left to ask is this: “Now that Virginia has been told there’s a Santa Claus, will the commonwealth’s football forces be similarly generous in the final two weeks of the season?”