2008
BCS Analysis
Week 6
By
Pete Fiutak
BCS Rankings |
Computer
Rankings
- BCS Analysis
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4
|
Week 5
And now
things get interesting. Very, very interesting.
In the big news of the BCS day, Texas moved up to two and
Oklahoma is up from five to three. That means that this weekend
should be all about style points as Texas needs to impress the
humans to say ahead of OU, because it's the computers who
currently like the Longhorns. More on this in a moment.
|
The
Top 25
-
Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. USC
6. Utah
7. Texas Tech
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. Georgia
12. Oklahoma St
13. Missouri
14. TCU
15. Ball State
16. Cincinnati
17. Oregon State
18. BYU
19. Michigan St
20. Florida State
21. Boston Coll.
22. Georgia Tech
23. Oregon
24. Northwestern
25. Pitt |
Texas Tech
excused itself from the national title chase moving all the way
down to seventh, while Penn State didn't budge off the No. 8
spot despite blowing away Michigan State. More on this in a
moment, as well.
USC is in range at five, but it's all about the Big 12 and the
SEC at the moment. If the champions of the two conferences,
including Alabama, finish with one loss, they're playing each
other for the national title and USC, Utah, and everyone else
will be on the outside looking in.
Utah is going to the BCS, which is what everyone knew after the
win over BYU, but now it's confirmed at the No. 6 spot. Boise
State is at nine, and isn't likely to move any higher unless
there are some monumental upsets, while an unbeaten Ball State
is the fourth non-BCS team in the rankings, coming in at 15th,
one spot behind TCU.
Basically, here's what you need to know ...
1. If there aren't any upsets this weekend, the SEC champion
will be playing for the national championship. The big question
mark is Missouri. If the Tigers win the Big 12 Championship,
will the BCS put in a one-loss Oklahoma or Texas (whichever one
is left out) over USC? That will be the big fight unless the
Tigers lose, and then Oklahoma or Texas (whichever one gets into
the Big 12 title game) will play the SEC champion.
2. Utah can continue to have a major complaint. On merit, USC
has no case for being ranked ahead of the Utes. The computers
realize this, but the humans don't. The Utes have a better computer ranking than
USC, they beat Oregon State, USC lost to Oregon State, and the
Mountain West went 6-1 vs. the Pac 10. However, even after a
blowout win over a good BYU, USC is No. 5 and
Utah No. 6.
3. Work with me here. Penn State is firmly stuck on the No. 8
spot. However, forgetting about what happens in the SEC, if
Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, which isn't all that far-fetched,
then the Big 12 South goes to a two-team tie-breaker and Texas
Tech, if it beats Baylor, would face Missouri. If the Red
Raiders beat the Tigers, would the voters still want them in the
national title game over Texas and Penn State after what
happened this last week in Norman? No way. Also, if that
happens, then Texas wouldn't have won its division, much less
its conference, so to put the Longhorns in would mean a 2001
Nebraska scenario which the college football public and voters
have been loathe to repeat.
If Oregon State beats Oregon, then it wins the No. 1 spot in the
Pac 10, and while USC would win a share of the title with a win
over UCLA, would the voters still want USC in over Penn State?
The computers wouldn't. Therefore, all it'll take is for two
reasonable things to happen (Oklahoma State over OU and Oregon
State at home over Oregon) and then Penn State would have a
case, unless the voters really did go bold and decided to go
with Utah. In other words, while there's too much traffic ahead
for Penn State to get to the national title, the debating and
politicking might not be over.
4. It's over. Utah will get the automatic BCS slot. As it looks
now, the SEC and Big 12 will each get two teams in, Utah and
Penn State have automatic berths, and the ACC and Big East
champions will get automatic spots. That means there are two
spots available, and it comes down to the Civil War. If Oregon
State beats Oregon, assuming USC beats Notre Dame and UCLA, the
Pac 10 will get two teams in with the Beavers going to the Rose
Bowl. If Oregon beats Oregon State, then Ohio State will likely
get the final BCS spot.
Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account,
so there will be wild changes from the computers at the end, but the two human polls will be the biggest
factors.
The Big Winners: Oklahoma (moved from No. 5 to
No. 3), USC (6 to 5), Oregon State (21 to 17)
The Big Losers: Penn State (didn't move from 8),
Texas Tech (2 to 7), USC (didn't jump over USC after big win)
1. Alabama Score: 0.9872 Last
Week: No. 1
Alabama moved up even more as it's now No. 1 by both the
humans and the computers after being No. 2 by the computers last
week behind Texas Tech. Obviously, Bama is playing for the
national title by beating Auburn and Florida, and with the
Gators getting so much respect, the Tide could still play for it
all if it loses to Auburn and wins the SEC title game.
predicted wins: Auburn
predicted losses: SEC Championship (Florida)
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
toughest test: SEC Championship vs. Florida
2. Texas Score:
0.9209 Last Week: No. 3
Texas has the computers to thank for the No. 2 spot, because
both human polls have Mack Brown's club at No. 4. A blowout win
over Texas A&M is a must, or else Oklahoma, if it beats Oklahoma
State, will start to get more respect from the computers and
won't get any less from the humans. All UT wants is a chance for
a repeat battle against Missouri, and for one week, it's still
in the mix.
predicted wins: Texas A&M
predicted losses: none
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
toughest test: Texas A&M
3. Oklahoma Score:
0.9125 Last Week: No. 5
Oklahoma did what it had to do to get in a position to play
for the Big 12 and national title by blowing away Texas Tech.
Now there's just one more hurdle to overcome to get into the No.
2 spot and into a chance to play Missouri. The humans are on
board, with the Coaches' Poll putting the Sooners at No. 2 while
the Harris Poll has them at 3. Oklahoma State, ranked 12th in
the BCS, is a great team, and if OU does next week what it did
to Texas Tech, it'll be in the Big 12 title game without a
question.
predicted wins: at Oklahoma State, Big 12
Championship (Missouri)
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: at Oklahoma State
4. Florida Score:
0.8755 Last Week: No. 4
Talk about focused, to a man, Florida said it was going to
be business as usual against Citadel. 70 points and over 700
yards later, the team made its statement that it's not planning
on letting down any time soon. The computers are still less than
thrilled, partly because the SEC stinks and partly because of
the loss to Ole Miss, but the humans are on board with the
Harris Poll ranking the Gators No. 2 and the Coaches' Poll
putting them at third. All that matters is winning the last two
games. With wins over Florida State and Alabama, Florida will be
playing for the national title.
predicted wins: at Florida
State, SEC Championship (Alabama)
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: SEC Championship vs. Alabama
5. USC Score: 0.7974 Last Week:
No. 6
The Trojans probably won't earn the Pac 10's No. 1 spot, and
the computers have them eighth overall, with four of the six
ranking them eighth or lower, yet the humans are falling for the
blowout wins over bad teams. Ranked fifth in both polls, the
humans are keeping USC alive in the national title hunt. The
dream is for Missouri to win the Big 12 championship game after
getting a little more help from somewhere to get within range.
If USC isn't in the top four after next weekend, it's not going
to happen.
predicted wins: Notre Dame, at UCLA
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
toughest test: at UCLA
6. Utah Score: 0.7858 Last
Week: No. 7
No. 5 in the computer polls but seventh in the Coaches' and
eighth in the Harris, Utah is too far out of range to have any
honest dreams of playing for the national title. On the plus
side, this is the only two-time BCS buster and it'll be a lock
to go somewhere, which above all else, means a ton of extra cash
compared to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Done ... Record: 12-0
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
7. Texas Tech Score: 0.7789
Last Week: No. 2
And there goes that ... maybe. If Oklahoma State beats
Oklahoma and Texas Tech beats Baylor, then it'll be the Red
Raiders playing Missouri for the Big 12 title. If they win the
conference championship, would Texas get into the national
title? Not a chance. The computers still love the Red Raiders,
and the humans would either have to follow, or face the Utah vs.
USC debate as to which one should be sent to Miami.
predicted wins: Baylor
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Gator Bowl
toughest test: Baylor
8. Penn State Score: 0.7520
Last Week: No. 8
While Penn State would have a big argument to be in the
national title game if Missouri wins the Big 12 title, it's not
going to happen. Enjoy Pasadena. Either it'll be a rematch
against Oregon State, even though the Nittany Lions won 45-14 in
Happy Valley earlier this year, or it'll be a tremendous battle
against USC.
Done ... Record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
9. Boise
State Score: 0.6581 Last Week: No. 9
Boise State survived a late run by Nevada and just needs to
get by an underachieving, mediocre Fresno State to be unbeaten,
but it'll get left out of the BCS hunt thanks to Utah's great
year. Barring a huge upset, the Broncos will have to settle for
the No. 9 ranking while watching a few teams with far, far lower
rankings get in.
predicted wins: Fresno State
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-0
predicted bowl: Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl
toughest test: Fresno State
10. Ohio State Score: 0.6210 Last Week: No. 11
Ohio State will get out the Nikes along with the yellow and
green pom-poms as it roots for Oregon to upset Oregon State in
Corvallis. If the Ducks win, the Buckeyes will be all but
certain to get the tenth BCS slot, but if the Beavers win, then
it'll be off to Florida for a New Year's Day game against (cue
ominous music) the SEC.
Done ... Record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Capital One Bowl
In Range
11. Georgia Score: 0.6020
12. Oklahoma State Score: 0.5705
13. Missouri Score: 0.5589
14. TCU Score: 0.4702
15. Ball State Score: 0.4379