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When prognosticators and pundits looked at the 2008 LSU football team, most had their best guess at a final record between 10-2 on the high end and 8-4 on the low end if every variable went against the Tigers.
Eleven games in, LSU is hoping to somehow salvage 8-4 (and a .500 conference record) with a dangerous game Friday at Arkansas. But it’s been as ugly an 8-4 as anybody could have imagined. As the Talking Heads once asked – how did we get here?
LSU’s quarterbacking has been abysmal this season, with a combined 18 touchdowns and 18 interceptions (seven returned for touchdowns), but ever since Les Miles decided to boot Ryan Perrilloux, leaving options that included a redshirt freshman, a true freshman and a sophomore walk-on, everybody knew there was a possibility that this could happen. And despite those woes, LSU has still averaged a respectable 30 points per game behind a dynamic rushing attack.
The shocker has been the Tigers’ regression on defense – from the top defense in the SEC and the No. 3 total defense in 2007 to the 10th in the conference and 32nd nationally (and 66th in points per game).
The overly-simplistic tone echoed throughout the fan base and segments of the local media places blame at the feet of Bradley Dale Peveto and Doug Mallory – the co-defensive coordinators promoted to replace Bo Pelini last spring. This speaks to a larger cultural issue surrounding the program, but more on that later.
It has become abundantly clear that the LSU defense needs an engine overhaul. It’s easy to place this at the feet of the coaching staff, but there’s more to it than that.
There’s been a lack of focus and a lack of fire. Part of that has been due to the fact that Mallory and Peveto have run a zone-based scheme based on reacting instead of attacking, and part of that has come from a group of veteran players that, simply put, lost their edge. In 2007 seniors like Glenn Dorsey, Ali Highsmith and Craig Steltz were inspirations in both word and deed. This year, the core leaders of the defense have been quiet, lead-by-example types like Darry Beckwith, Curtis Taylor, Kirston Pittman and Tyson Jackson. Except they haven’t provided much of an example either – battling injuries and frighteningly uncharacteristic mistakes while their inexperienced teammates struggle even more (it’s worth pointing out that freshman corner Patrick Peterson and junior defensive end Rahim Alem have been bright spots).
But the most jarring part has been the lack of fire from the unit. The passive way they’ve sat back and taken 50-point lashings by Florida and Georgia. Many have pinned that on the passive defensive scheme, but that doesn’t explain last year’s hard-hitting unit, as the scheme has been unchanged. Others have suggested that neither Mallory nor Peveto have Pelini’s fiery personality – but his defense still struggled mightily against quality offenses like Kentucky, Florida and Arkansas.
The truth, as it tends to do, lies somewhere in between the coaches and the players. Peveto and Mallory quite obviously haven’t gotten the job done. Adjustments have been poor and there’s been very little carryover week-to-week when they’ve been successful. Preparation has looked non-existent at times and confusion has been a constant on the sidelines. But the players have reacted with frustration and unwillingness to focus on the things that are within their own control such as tackling and gap discipline.
And that’s where the c-word has to be tossed out there: complacency.
When you look at the LSU program, complacency following success has been an issue for some time. Each of the Tigers’ last four conference titles (including the last two national titles), under three different head coaches, have been followed up by seasons of at least three losses.
It’s been no secret that LSU fans are a passionate bunch. They will embrace a winner with all that they have – heck, Gerry DiNardo appeared in Ford truck commercials and opened his own restaurant without even making an SEC championship game appearance. Players and coaches get treated like royalty in Baton Rouge. It’s not hard to see how that can get to players’ heads because it’s happened time and time again. But that passion will flip in an instant. Nick Saban called it “catastrophe syndrome.” Just as every victory is a cause for massive celebration, every loss is a harbinger of incoming doom. As much as people like to say Saban “changed the culture around the program,” this was one element he was never able to make a dent in. It drove him crazy, and the pressure of following his 2003 national championship clearly chaffed him at times during the 2004 season before he left for the Miami Dolphins.
In past seasons, players seemed ready for their winter break the second a championship was no longer attainable, and that attitude permeates the rest of the town as well.
Let’s look at LSU’s previous two post-championship seasons.
2002
LSU finished 8-5 and unranked, with four losses in its final six games. The Tigers were coming off a shocking SEC Championship and Sugar Bowl victory, and spirits couldn’t be higher. Saban came out with the first edition of his self-help book, “How Good Do You Want to Be?,” that offseason, and a profound sense of optimism surrounded the program .
It wasn’t an offseason without incident though: there was an NCAA investigation into allegations of academic fraud regarding an incoming recruit and arrests involving linebacker Donovan Grayson, recruit Tim Pope (who was eventually dismissed from the team) and defensive tackle Kenderick Allen.
Expectations were not extreme, but most fans did expect to at least make it back to the SEC Championship Game. LSU would be breaking in a new quarterback out of the duo of sophomores Marcus Randall and Matt Mauck, who had come off the bench to lead the Tigers past Tennessee in the ’01 conference championship game. But an experienced group of running backs and receivers were on hand, along with a veteran defense – led by All-American linebacker Bradie James – that was expected to finally show Saban’s prowess as a defensive coach.
Sure enough, the defense would turn out to be outstanding, finishing with the No. 8 total defense in the country. But the offense would prove to be turnover plagued and incredibly inconsistent. LSU averaged just 24.8 points per game, with a team completion percentage of 47 percent and a passer rating of 110.45. The team averaged 56 yards per game in penalties, converted just 34 percent of its third downs and fumbled a remarkable 35 times. Mauck would suffer a season-ending foot injury at midseason and be replaced by Randall, who would at one point get benched very briefly for true freshman Rick Clausen.
The season’s high point would be a 33-30 win at Kentucky that featured the Bluegrass Miracle, a 75-yard hail mary from Randall to Devery Henderson as time expired – which only covered up for the fact that LSU blew a 27-20 lead in the final five minutes.
You could take your pick of the low points: a 31-0 loss at home to tenth-ranked Alabama team in which the Tiger defense was gashed for 300 rushing yards (I could be exaggerating but I think Alabama ran the sprint draw 25 times for at least 200 of those yards, a 21-20 loss at Arkansas with a birth in Atlanta on the line – Matt Jones would complete not one but two hail marys on LSU’s defense on the final drive to take the lead in the final seconds, and a grueling 31-7 loss on the road at Auburn.
There was an odd atmosphere around the team during the season. Senior All-SEC safety Damien James left the team at midseason with no official explanation. Saban was frustrated by the team’s struggle to close out games, and more frustrated by questions by fans and media members. The season closed out with a 35-20 loss to Chris Simms, Roy Williams and Texas (especially Williams, who had 181 yards of offense and two touchdowns on just five touches), but most would tell you the seeds of the 2003 national championship were sown in that season’s frustrations.
2004
The defending national champ Tigers were a preseason top-10 club with experience at multiple positions, including returning All-Americans Corey Webster, Ben Wilkerson and Marcus Spears. Sophomore running back Justin Vincent, the MVP of the SEC and BCS championship games was expected to blossom into a star, as was freshman All-American safety LaRon Landry.
Things were never quite right from the start. Multiple members of the team failed the preseason conditioning test, and some, like Vincent and star punt returner Skyler Green, would never round into shape. It was quite clear to most observers that the 2003 success had affected the resolve of several team veterans.
But quarterback was once again the team’s biggest question, and it would be decided between the senior Randall and redshirt freshmen JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn. Most believed that surely one of the three would develop into a consistent game-manager that could lead LSU back to Atlanta behind a potent running game and another dominating defense.
Or, at least that was the chalk talk.
The result was a frustrating 9-3 team that was a total of 11 points away from being 5-7.
LSU never did settle on a true starting quarterback, ping-ponging between Randall and Russell from the moment the talented freshman came off the bench in the season opener to help rally LSU to a 22-21 overtime victory against Oregon State (though it was the five missed extra points of Alexis Serna that is remembered most about the game).
Saban would yank the two players indiscriminately, though neither would ever show enough consistency to hold on to the job for more than a single game. With an inexperienced group of receivers as well, LSU passed for just 200 yards per game, struggling with turnovers (a -2 ratio on the year) and penalties. Vincent would never regain the explosiveness he flashed as a freshman, and would eventually get passed on the depth chart by Joseph Addai and Alley Broussard.
The defense once again finished third in the nation in total yards, but struggled against quality offenses, allowing 20 points or more six times, including a 45-16 beat down at Georgia.
Aside from the Oregon State shootout, LSU would also sweat out games with Troy and Ole Miss. The lack of an edge to the team was noticeable. There was no killer instinct from the players, no urge to grind every opponent beneath their feet. It aggravated both Saban and the fans – and the latter’s aggravation added visible stress to the former. All the while rumors of his impending departure to the NFL continued to flourish. Sure enough, on Christmas Day, Saban announced he was headed to Miami.
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There are two constants in this season and the previous two mentioned: a team defending a championship while breaking in a new quarterback.
Quarterback couldn’t be helped once Perrilloux was gone. Some fans have said Miles should have recruited another QB in the 2006 recruiting season between Perrilloux and Jarrett Lee – an easy criticism that works if you believe a coach can know that two years down the road he’ll have to kick his star quarterback prospect (who was still sitting behind Russell and Flynn at that time) off the team.
Perrilloux’s dismissal left Andrew Hatch, Lee and Jordan Jefferson. Hatch and Lee seemed an adequate combo at first, but once Hatch began to suffer injuries, Lee began to crack under pressure. Booing from fans and visible frustration from teammates, particularly his wide receivers – who have spent time berating his play, dogging routes, dropping balls and whiffing blocks this season – haven’t helped matters. Jefferson was never truly in the coaching staff’s plans for this season, and had Hatch not suffered a concussion against Auburn and a leg injury against Georgia, he would have redshirted.
Quarterback play was definitely a factor in both LSU’s losses to Georgia and Alabama. But once it became evident that a division or conference championship would be unattainable, several portions of this team went in the tank. It was more than evident against Troy, when the entire team sleepwalked through three quarters before a handful of juniors started to get vocal, and it was visible against Ole Miss as well.
As legendary basketball coach John Wooden once said, “Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character.” As legendary pro wrestler the Nature Boy Ric Flair once said, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man, but brother, stayin’ the man is a whole new ball game.”
This time, Miles will be the one to determine whether the complacency in this senior class and the struggles of this defense are an aberration or a trend.
The Tigers and their coaching staff (the entire LSU fan base as well – though there’s little hope for them) need to stop focusing on the glory, the thrill of victory, the taste of a championship, and remember how they got it in the first place. Focus on the process, not the results.
Recruiting has never been better. LSU will most likely finish in at least (and possibly higher) the top five in every recruiting ranking, with two top-shelf quarterback recruits (Russell Shepard and Chris Garrett) who will be on hand for spring practice.
Defensively, LSU’s scheme and coaching got incredibly stale incredibly fast, and there will have to be change. Whether that means a new defensive coordinator, a complete philosophy shift, or both, something will have to happen.
For the players, leaders have to emerge and personal accountability has to be taken. Quarterback is still going to be a transitional position, with Lee likely to play some kind of role. He will need to know he has the support of his teammates.
Whether these things happen will say a lot for whether Miles’ tenure will last, but it’s also a referendum on whether LSU can truly sustain year-in and year-out dominance, regardless of the coach.