Instant Analysis: Oregon-Oregon State

The Oregon State Beavers can still make the Rose Bowl. They’ll simply need UCLA to pull off a monumental upset next week against USC.

The clock struck midnight for the Cinderella story in Corvallis on a sad Saturday evening in Reser Stadium. The Oregon Ducks crashed the party and crushed OSU in the 105th Civil War, meaning that Mike Riley’s team will need a miracle to win the Pac-10 Conference. It’s still been a sensational year for this overachieving group, and a loss to Oregon should not detract from the awesome accomplishments the Beavers have gained in 2008. But in the present moment, the magnitude of this defeat has to sting the OSU football family. Even worse than having Pasadena plans put on hold, the Beavers will have to live with the fresh and searing pain of knowing that their hated in-state rival took them down in the twelfth and final game of the regular season.

In assessing why Oregon prevailed in this pivotal contest, which had a dramatic domino effect on the rest of the BCS bowl picture, the first thing that needs to be said is that Oregon State really didn’t miss star running back Jacquizz Rodgers… not to the extent most observers might have thought. OSU moved the ball just fine, thank you, against Oregon’s defense, rolling up 38 points in the first three and a half quarters of play. If you had told Mr. Riley before the game that his team would hang 38 on the Ducks, he’d have loved his chances. Jacquizz Rodgers might have given the Beavers a little more red zone effectiveness in the first half, but other than that, Oregon State did well on offense.

It was this thing called defense that devastated the beaten-down Beavers.

A little background behind Oregon State’s season is in order here. The Beavers’ magical run to the top of the Pac-10 was built on the back of their defense. While Quizz and Company rightfully received a lot of publicity and praise, it was OSU’s defense that made this march to glory, a march that—with tonight’s loss—likely ended one stop short of paradise. When Oregon State dusted off USC in September, the key was that the Beavers held an erratic Trojan offense to just 21 points. Most of OSU’s wins against upper-tier Pac-10 opponents have been in the twenties, on average. A 34-21 win over Cal was helped along by two kick returns that either directly scored or set up easy touchdowns. The not-so-secret element of Oregon State’s success is that it held down league opponents, and never allowed its offense to play from behind on the scoreboard. Jacquizz Rodgers was such a huge factor for this team precisely because coach Riley had a defense that enabled his little big man in the backfield to pound the ball between the tackles and drain the clock.

With that explanation in mind, it’s not hard to understand why this Oregon State game was different from every other conference game the Beavers had played since their August 28 loss at Stanford (when they allowed 36 points).

The key to this contest, as was the case with every other Oregon State game in 2008, was going to be the performance of the offense that stared down the Beavers’ defense. If a team could ring up a big number against the Beavs, the Pac-10’s most pleasant surprise would face an uphill battle, and that’s exactly what transpired Saturday evening.

An awesome onslaught was produced by an Oregon offense captained by often-erratic quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Saving his very best for the last game of the regular season, Masoli executed coordinator Chip Kelly’s read-based spread to perfection. Making proper decisions and pinpoint throws with scary regularity, Masoli manipulated the tempo of the game and prevented the Beavers from ever feeling comfortable on defense. Whether it was Masoli’s downfield passing, the between-the numbers running of LeGarrette Blount, or the explosive bursts of Jeremiah Johnson on the edges, Oregon found the formula needed to crack the crew from Corvallis. A night of unrelenting offensive excellence produced 693 yards, 384 of them on the ground. While Oregon received a pair of pick-sixes from its defense, the Ducks’ offense still scored 51 points in its own right, which proved to be more than enough to carry the day.

Quarterback Lyle Moevao and receiver Sammie Stroughter performed marvelously in defeat for Oregon State, but their heroics were simply not enough to overcome the unstoppable force wearing green helmets. The U of O had a lot of “O,” and there was nothing Jacquizz Rodgers could do about it. That’s why the only thing Oregon State can do at this point is pray that Rick Neuheisel’s UCLA team will be Bruin up a special potion next Saturday in Pasadena. Yes, Pasadena—the very place that will likely elude a bunch of Beavers that have still done far more in 2008 than anyone ever expected.