2008
BCS Analysis
Week 7
By
Pete Fiutak
BCS Rankings |
Computer
Rankings
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Week 5
- Week 6
- Texas or Oklahoma
... Who Deserved To Win The South?
And welcome
to the glitch in the system ... for the Big 12.
The BCS was designed to determine the two teams that deserve to
play for the national title. It's not set up to be a conference
tie-breaker before the regular season is over because the
formula isn't complete.
The computer part of the formula is set up to take the entire
season into account from the opening day through the final day,
but the regular season and the conference titles still have to
be played. The computers have now put Oklahoma No. 1 overall,
and Texas No. 2, while the humans are split with Oklahoma
beating out Texas by one lousy point (1,397 votes to 1,396) in
the Coaches' Poll while the Harris has the Longhorns three and
the Sooners four. So if you're a Texas fan, be angry at the
computers, but blame your conference for the flip flop that kept
your team out of the Big 12 title game.
Don't blame the BCS system for Texas not being in the Big 12
title. Again, this is not what the system is for. The system is
set up to determine a national champion, and for the Big 12 to
use it as a tie-breaker will cast a pall on the rest of the
season.
|
The
Top 25
-
Expanded BCS Rankings
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. USC
6. Utah
7. Texas Tech
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. TCU
12. Ball State
13. Cincinnati
14. Oklahoma St
15. Georgia Tech
16. Georgia
17. Boston Coll.
18. BYU
19. Oregon
20. Missouri
21. Michigan St
22. Northwestern
23. Pitt
24. Florida State
25. Virginia Tech |
Here's the
problem. Oklahoma beat Chattanooga, one of the nation's worst
FCS teams, 57-2 in the season opener. If you're just going by
margin of victory in games against FBS teams, Oklahoma and Texas
are almost dead even. If you count the game against Chattanooga
in the overall formula, then the Texas strength of schedule is
better than OU's. And, of course, Texas beat Oklahoma by ten.
So by almost all measures, Texas and OU are dead even in the
statistical parts of the equation, Texas, again, played the
stronger schedule, according to the NCAA, and the final score
was 45-35 in the Red River Rivalry. However, three computers had
Oklahoma No. 1 overall, two had the Sooners No. 2. Texas was
ahead of OU in two computer formulas, but the question remains:
how much will the computer formulas change after the final week?
There are still several games to be played that will change up
the computer part of the equation, but by that point, Oklahoma
will have already played Missouri in the Big 12 title game and
the damage will have been done.
Basically, here's what you need to know ...
1. The upsets didn't come. The Alabama - Florida winner in the
SEC title game will play for the national title. Oklahoma will
be in the title game if it beats Missouri, but ...
2. There's still hope for Texas. If Missouri beats Oklahoma, the
possibility of USC moving up the No. 2 spot is almost zero.
Everyone will feel bad for the Longhorns, and no one will have a
problem putting them into the national championship game if the
Sooners lose.
3. Everything up top basically stayed the same outside of
the Texas-OU flip-flop. Boise State stayed at No. 9, meaning
Utah will be in the BCS as the highest ranked non-BCS conference
school. The question now will become Boise State vs. No. 10 Ohio
State for the final BCS slot. If USC beats UCLA, it'll be a USC
- Penn State Rose Bowl, and there will be one open spot. If USC
loses to UCLA, Oregon State will go to the Rose Bowl, the Fiesta
Bowl will snap up USC, and the spots will be filled. In other
words, the Broncos and Buckeyes were very happy with Oregon's
blasting of the Beavers in the Civil War.
The Big Winners: Oklahoma (moved from No. 3 to
No. 2), Cincinnati (16 to 13), Georgia Tech (22 to 15)
The Big Losers: Texas (from 2 to 3 and out of the
Big 12 title game), Oregon State (from Rose Bowl to No. 26 after
getting blown out), Missouri (13 to 20)
1. Alabama Score: 0.9713 Last
Week: No. 1
The computers are liking Oklahoma more this week and don't
seem to care about the the Tide anymore. Last week's No. 1 team
moved down to No. 3 by the computers despite blowing out Auburn.
It doesn't matter. Beat Florida, play for the national title.
predicted wins: None
predicted losses: SEC Championship (Florida)
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
toughest test: SEC Championship vs. Florida
2. Oklahoma Score:
0.9351 Last Week: No. 2
The computers gave the South to the Sooners. Last week the
computers had Texas No. 2 and OU No. 3, this week it's OU No. 1
and Texas No. 2. All the Sooners now have to do is beat Missouri
and they're playing for the national title.
predicted wins: Big 12 Championship vs. Missouri
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: Big 12
Championship vs. Missouri
3. Texas Score:
0.9223 Last Week: No. 2
This might be the biggest hosing in the history of the BCS
system because there's no tangible argument for Oklahoma. Texas
can always fall back on the 45-35 win in the Red River Rivalry.
Now the Longhorns will have to watch two teams they beat by a combined score of 101 to 67
play for the Big 12 title
Done ... Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta Bowl
4. Florida Score:
0.8851 Last Week: No. 4
Florida keeps going about its business with blowout after
blowout. Oklahoma might have the hottest offense in college
football at the moment, but Florida has the hottest team with
the defense and special teams dominating as much as Tebow's
attack. Even at No. 4, it's a foregone conclusion that the
Gators are playing for the national title if they can beat No. 1
Alabama in the SEC Championship.
predicted wins: SEC Championship vs. Alabama
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship
toughest test: SEC Championship vs. Alabama
5. USC Score: 0.8076
Last Week: No. 5
The Trojans needed chaos to kick in to move within range of
the top two, but it didn't happen. Even if Missouri beats
Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, USC won't be able to move up
enough to play for the national title. Instead, with a win over
UCLA next week, it's off to Pasadena to face Penn State.
predicted wins: at UCLA
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl vs. Penn State
toughest test: at UCLA
6. Utah Score: 0.7844 Last
Week: No. 6
There's no reason to get all huffy anymore about what might have
been had USC gotten into the national title over the unbeaten
and more deserving Utes. Utah is in the BCS with an automatic
selection, and now it's just a question of whether or not it's
Glendale or New Orleans. Utah desperately wants the Fiesta Bowl
so its fans can drive to the game, but that's hardly a given.
Done ... Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta Bowl
7. Texas Tech Score: 0.7805
Last Week: No. 7
Texas Tech didn't even factor in the Big 12 South title
discussion, and the close shave against Baylor didn't help the
cause. Even so, it's been a dream season that will end in either
the Cotton or Gator Bowl. Expect the Cotton.
Done ... Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Cotton Bowl
8. Penn State Score: 0.7373
Last Week: No. 8
Penn State can rest easily that there's no controversy as
far as being excluded from the one-loss teams in the national
title discussion. Fortunately for college football, it'll almost
certainly be a USC - Penn State Rose Bowl rather than a rematch
of the Penn State blasting of Oregon State from earlier in the
year.
Done ... Record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
9. Boise
State Score: 0.7034 Last Week: No. 9
Boise State and the WAC will now start the lobbying effort.
With Oregon beating Oregon State, if USC beats UCLA, an open
spot will open up in the BCS and it's between Ohio State and
Boise State. Boise State beat that Oregon team that's starting
to look good, and it's unbeaten, but Fiesta or the Sugar will
likely want Ohio State and its fan base. Boise's shot is in the
Fiesta against Texas; there's no way the Sugar will take a WAC
team two years in a row.
Done ... Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Poinsettia Bowl
10. Ohio State Score: 0.6340 Last Week: No. 10
Good things always seem to happen for Ohio State at the end
of the regular season. With the Oregon win over Oregon State,
it's now between the Buckeyes and Boise State for the tenth BCS
slot. Let the discussions begin between the Sugar and the Fiesta
Bowl about the Utah situation, neither one will want Cincinnati,
who'll go to the Orange Bowl. With Utah lobbying hard for the
Fiesta, and with the Sugar not wanting Boise State, look for the
Buckeyes to go to New Orleans for the second year in a row.
Done ... Record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
In Range
11. TCU Score: 0.5633
12. Ball State Score: 0.5306
13. Cincinnati Score: 0.4831
14. Oklahoma State Score: 0.4276
15. Georgia Tech Score: 0.4046