One of the things that I like to do with this model is come up with interesting bits of information about the season.
Rankings, schedule strength, which teams got better and which got worse,
which teams had an especially strong home-field edge and which did relatively better on the road (yes there WERE a few, as there usually are).
As usual, only 1-A games are counted, so it doesn't matter how badly you beat a AA foe (or if you actually struggled or lost to them), it simply counts as a bye.
No boost to winning percentage, no drop to schedule strength. It's as if the game wasn't played. In some cases (cough, cough, Florida St), it entirely explains
why the schedule is rated to highly; count AA games and it drops like a stone.
Also, please remember that these ratings are used for the sole purpose of predicting future results. There are no bonus points for being undefeated, or being from
a top conference, or playing X number of top 25 teams, or beating a team with a similar ranking head to head, or any single other sort of adjustment that many people use when making their rankings.
Schedule strength counts a lot, and margin counts a lot. A close loss against a great team gives a better rating than a close win against a lousy team. Many people object to this, but in terms of predictive value,
I consider it the only way to go. These rankings look different than most human polls, and for that matter they look different from most computer polls. That's OK. It's supposed to look different, both because its goals
are different, and because it operates differently from other models. The only standard I use to judge it is how accurate its picks are, and so far this year it's been pretty decent.
Team Rankings
| 1 Florida | 31 Connecticut | 61 Duke | 91 Memphis |
| 2 Oklahoma | 32 North Carolina State | 62 Troy State | 92 Wyoming |
| 3 Southern California | 33 Arizona | 63 Southern Mississippi | 93 Akron |
| 4 Texas | 34 Virginia Tech | 64 New Mexico | 94 Arkansas State |
| 5 Texas Christian | 35 Miami (Florida) | 65 Bowling Green State | 95 Utah State |
| 6 Utah | 36 Iowa | 66 Auburn | 96 Central Florida |
| 7 Texas Tech | 37 South Carolina | 67 Western Michigan | 97 Ohio |
| 8 Alabama | 38 Wake Forest | 68 Illinois | 98 Marshall |
| 9 Penn State | 39 Air Force | 69 Kentucky | 99 Florida Atlantic |
| 10 Ohio State | 40 Louisiana State | 70 East Carolina | 100 Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 11 Florida State | 41 South Florida | 71 Louisville | 101 Alabama-Birmingham |
| 12 Boise State | 42 Kansas | 72 Northern Illinois | 102 San Diego State |
| 13 Oregon | 43 Arizona State | 73 Buffalo | 103 Kent |
| 14 Rutgers | 44 Michigan State | 74 Temple | 104 San Jose State |
| 15 Boston College | 45 Baylor | 75 Nevada-Las Vegas | 105 Middle Tennessee State |
| 16 Mississippi | 46 Notre Dame | 76 Hawaii | 106 Eastern Michigan |
| 17 Oklahoma State | 47 Navy | 77 Texas A&M | 107 Iowa State |
| 18 Clemson | 48 Maryland | 78 Central Michigan | 108 Florida International |
| 19 North Carolina | 49 Virginia | 79 Minnesota | 109 Louisiana-Monroe |
| 20 Cincinnati | 50 Tennessee | 80 Purdue | 110 Toledo |
| 21 West Virginia | 51 Rice | 81 Army | 111 Washington |
| 22 Georgia Tech | 52 Northwestern | 82 Syracuse | 112 Indiana |
| 23 Pittsburgh | 53 Nevada | 83 UCLA | 113 Southern Methodist |
| 24 Missouri | 54 Tulsa | 84 Fresno State | 114 Washington State |
| 25 Oregon State | 55 Stanford | 85 Colorado | 115 New Mexico State |
| 26 Georgia | 56 Colorado State | 86 Louisiana Tech | 116 Miami (Ohio) |
| 27 California | 57 Arkansas | 87 Kansas State | 117 Tulane |
| 28 Brigham Young | 58 Vanderbilt | 88 Texas-El Paso | 118 Idaho |
| 29 Nebraska | 59 Wisconsin | 89 Michigan | 119 Western Kentucky |
| 30 Ball State | 60 Houston | 90 Mississippi State | 120 North Texas |
Schedule Strength - Top 30 and Bottom 30
| 1 Florida State | 91 Kent |
| 2 Virginia | 92 Western Michigan |
| 3 Baylor | 93 Ohio |
| 4 Syracuse | 94 Idaho |
| 5 Miami (Florida) | 95 Temple |
| 6 Duke | 96 Alabama-Birmingham |
| 7 Oklahoma | 97 New Mexico State |
| 8 Clemson | 98 Tulane |
| 9 Arkansas | 99 Akron |
| 10 Georgia | 100 Toledo |
| 11 Georgia Tech | 101 Houston |
| 12 North Carolina State | 102 East Carolina |
| 13 Texas Tech | 103 Bowling Green State |
| 14 Washington | 104 San Jose State |
| 15 Virginia Tech | 105 Rice |
| 16 North Carolina | 106 Southern Mississippi |
| 17 South Carolina | 107 Fresno State |
| 18 Florida | 108 Louisiana Tech |
| 19 Maryland | 109 North Texas |
| 20 Missouri | 110 Boise State |
| 21 Wake Forest | 111 Florida Atlantic |
| 22 Washington State | 112 Troy State |
| 23 Kansas | 113 Louisiana-Monroe |
| 24 Oregon State | 114 Arkansas State |
| 25 Pittsburgh | 115 Memphis |
| 26 Illinois | 116 Florida International |
| 27 Boston College | 117 Ball State |
| 28 Colorado | 118 Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 29 Ohio State | 119 Middle Tennessee State |
| 30 Connecticut | 120 Tulsa |
Most vs Least Improved - Top 25 and Bottom 25
| 1 Rutgers | 96 Ball State |
| 2 North Carolina State | 97 Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 3 West Virginia | 98 Toledo |
| 4 Army | 99 Vanderbilt |
| 5 Clemson | 100 Tulsa |
| 6 Colorado State | 101 New Mexico State |
| 7 Cincinnati | 102 Western Michigan |
| 8 Wyoming | 103 Iowa |
| 9 Utah | 104 Northwestern |
| 10 Pittsburgh | 105 Kansas State |
| 11 Florida | 106 Miami (Ohio) |
| 12 Florida State | 107 Western Kentucky |
| 13 Texas Christian | 108 Iowa State |
| 14 Oregon | 109 Michigan State |
| 15 Syracuse | 110 Akron |
| 16 New Mexico | 111 Northern Illinois |
| 17 Brigham Young | 112 Tulane |
| 18 Baylor | 113 Kentucky |
| 19 San Diego State | 114 San Jose State |
| 20 Virginia | 115 Penn State |
| 21 Utah State | 116 Missouri |
| 22 Connecticut | 117 Illinois |
| 23 Air Force | 118 Wisconsin |
| 24 Mississippi | 119 Indiana |
| 25 Nevada-Las Vegas | 120 Minnesota |
Home Cooking vs Road Warriors - Top 25 and Bottom 25 Home-Field Factor
This describes how much better a team played at home vs on the road. It's well worth noting
that it's neither good nor bad to be high or low on this list; it's good to have an especially strong
home-field edge, with a loud crowd and possibly a weather edge, but it's also good to be able
to play well on the road. Consequently, you will tend to see most really good teams around the middle of
the list, because they do have a strong home-field edge but also are very capable of playing well on the road.
| 1 Tulsa | 96 Arizona State |
| 2 Maryland | 97 Tulane |
| 3 East Carolina | 98 Florida |
| 4 New Mexico | 99 Ohio |
| 5 Utah State | 100 Alabama-Birmingham |
| 6 Stanford | 101 Louisiana State |
| 7 Mississippi State | 102 Army |
| 8 Colorado State | 103 Ohio State |
| 9 Oklahoma | 104 Miami (Ohio) |
| 10 Central Michigan | 105 North Carolina State |
| 11 California | 106 New Mexico State |
| 12 South Carolina | 107 Western Kentucky |
| 13 Purdue | 108 Oregon |
| 14 San Diego State | 109 Fresno State |
| 15 Southern California | 110 Texas A&M |
| 16 Florida Atlantic | 111 Mississippi |
| 17 Wisconsin | 112 Nebraska |
| 18 Auburn | 113 Navy |
| 19 Connecticut | 114 Central Florida |
| 20 Houston | 115 Eastern Michigan |
| 21 Middle Tennessee State | 116 Alabama |
| 22 Arkansas State | 117 Florida State |
| 23 Western Michigan | 118 Rutgers |
| 24 Louisiana-Lafayette | 119 Minnesota |
| 25 Duke | 120 Bowling Green State |
Conference Rankings - Best to Worst
To be honest, I don't like these numbers. One of the components to the computer rankings is
momentum, and it looks like that one became more of a factor than I wanted it to be. Next year I'll
edit the formulas a bit to dampen the effect, but as usual I'm not going to make changes mid-stream.
| 1 ACC |
| 2 Big East |
| 3 Big 12 |
| 4 SEC |
| 5 Pac-10 |
| 6 Mountain West |
| 7 Big Ten |
| 8 Indep |
| 9 MAC |
| 10 WAC |
| 11 C-USA |
| 12 Sun Belt |
40 Best and 40 Worst Non-Conference Performances
All non-conference games matter when rating a league, but some games are especially good or especially bad. These are the
most prominent examples. Quality of opposition, score, time of year, overtime, and location (home/away/neutral field) all count towards the rating.
Of course, there's more to it than just these games; for instance, the Big East got a huge boost when Syracuse, their worst team by far, went into South Bend
and won. By itself, a one point win over Notre Dame isn't a massive deal, but when your worst team does it, that says something
(on the flip side, the Big Ten's last three OOC games were losses to mediocre MAC teams, which is why they're rated worst of the six BCS leagues).
But these are the really note-worthy games, the ones that tend to make headlines, either for good or for bad.
40 Best Games
| ACC | Boston College vs Notre Dame | HOME | 17-0 |
| ACC | Clemson vs South Carolina | HOME | 31-14 |
| ACC | Maryland vs California | HOME | 35-23 |
| ACC | North Carolina vs Rutgers | AWAY | 44-12 |
| ACC | North Carolina vs Connecticut | HOME | 38-12 |
| ACC | Virginia Tech vs Nebraska | AWAY | 35-30 |
| ACC | Wake Forest vs Baylor | AWAY | 41-13 |
| Big 12 | Missouri vs Nevada | HOME | 69-17 |
| Big 12 | Oklahoma vs Cincinnati | HOME | 52-26 |
| Big 12 | Oklahoma vs Texas Christian | HOME | 35-10 |
| Big 12 | Oklahoma State vs Troy State | HOME | 55-24 |
| Big 12 | Texas vs Texas-El Paso | AWAY | 42-13 |
| Big 12 | Texas vs Rice | HOME | 52-10 |
| Big 12 | Texas vs Arkansas | HOME | 52-10 |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech vs Nevada | AWAY | 35-19 |
| Big East | Connecticut vs Virginia | HOME | 45-10 |
| Big East | Pittsburgh vs Navy | AWAY | 42-21 |
| Big East | South Florida vs North Carolina State | AWAY | 41-10 |
| Big Ten | Minnesota vs Bowling Green State | AWAY | 42-17 |
| Big Ten | Penn State vs Oregon State | HOME | 45-14 |
| Big Ten | Penn State vs Syracuse | AWAY | 55-13 |
| Big Ten | Penn State vs Temple | HOME | 45-3 |
| C-USA | East Carolina vs West Virginia | HOME | 24-3 |
| Indep | Navy vs Wake Forest | AWAY | 24-17 |
| Indep | Navy vs Northern Illinois | AWAY | 16-0 |
| MAC | Bowling Green State vs Pittsburgh | AWAY | 27-17 |
| Mountain West | Brigham Young vs UCLA | HOME | 59-0 |
| Mountain West | Utah vs Utah State | AWAY | 58-10 |
| Pac-10 | Southern California vs Virginia | AWAY | 52-7 |
| Pac-10 | Southern California vs Ohio State | HOME | 35-3 |
| Pac-10 | Southern California vs Notre Dame | HOME | 38-3 |
| SEC | Alabama vs Clemson | NEUTRAL | 34-10 |
| SEC | Florida vs Miami (Florida) | HOME | 26-3 |
| SEC | Florida vs Florida State | AWAY | 45-15 |
| SEC | Georgia vs Central Michigan | HOME | 56-17 |
| SEC | Georgia vs Arizona State | AWAY | 27-10 |
| SEC | Kentucky vs Louisville | AWAY | 27-2 |
| SEC | South Carolina vs North Carolina State | HOME | 34-0 |
| WAC | Boise State vs Southern Mississippi | AWAY | 24-7 |
| WAC | Fresno State vs Rutgers | AWAY | 24-7 |
40 Worst Games
| ACC | North Carolina State vs South Florida | HOME | 10-41 |
| Big East | Louisville vs Kentucky | HOME | 2-27 |
| Big East | Rutgers vs Fresno State | HOME | 7-24 |
| Big East | Syracuse vs Akron | HOME | 28-42 |
| Big Ten | Michigan vs Toledo | HOME | 10-13 |
| C-USA | Alabama-Birmingham vs Tennessee | AWAY | 3-35 |
| C-USA | Tulane vs Army | HOME | 13-44 |
| Indep | Army vs Akron | HOME | 3-22 |
| Indep | Western Kentucky vs Indiana | AWAY | 13-31 |
| Indep | Western Kentucky vs Kentucky | AWAY | 3-41 |
| Indep | Western Kentucky vs Florida Atlantic | HOME | 20-24 |
| Indep | Western Kentucky vs North Texas | HOME | 40-51 |
| Indep | Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee State | HOME | 10-21 |
| Indep | Western Kentucky vs Florida International | AWAY | 3-27 |
| MAC | Akron vs Temple | AWAY | 6-27 |
| MAC | Kent vs Iowa State | AWAY | 28-48 |
| MAC | Kent vs Louisiana-Lafayette | AWAY | 27-44 |
| MAC | Miami (Ohio) vs Temple | HOME | 10-28 |
| MAC | Northern Illinois vs Navy | HOME | 0-16 |
| MAC | Toledo vs Florida International | HOME | 16-35 |
| Mountain West | Colorado State vs Colorado | NEUTRAL | 17-38 |
| Mountain West | Nevada-Las Vegas vs Nevada | HOME | 27-49 |
| Mountain West | San Diego State vs San Jose State | AWAY | 10-35 |
| Mountain West | Wyoming vs Bowling Green State | HOME | 16-45 |
| Pac-10 | UCLA vs Brigham Young | AWAY | 0-59 |
| Pac-10 | Washington vs Notre Dame | HOME | 7-33 |
| SEC | Tennessee vs Wyoming | HOME | 7-13 |
| Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic vs Minnesota | AWAY | 3-37 |
| Sun Belt | Louisiana-Lafayette vs Southern Mississippi | AWAY | 21-51 |
| Sun Belt | Louisiana-Lafayette vs Texas-El Paso | HOME | 24-37 |
| Sun Belt | Louisiana-Monroe vs Auburn | AWAY | 0-34 |
| Sun Belt | Louisiana-Monroe vs Tulane | AWAY | 10-24 |
| Sun Belt | North Texas vs Kansas State | AWAY | 6-45 |
| Sun Belt | North Texas vs Tulsa | HOME | 26-56 |
| Sun Belt | North Texas vs Louisiana State | AWAY | 3-41 |
| Sun Belt | North Texas vs Rice | AWAY | 20-77 |
| WAC | Idaho vs Arizona | AWAY | 0-70 |
| WAC | Idaho vs Western Michigan | HOME | 28-51 |
| WAC | Idaho vs San Diego State | AWAY | 17-45 |
| WAC | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | HOME | 24-35 |
Mr Pac-10's 2008 Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com