Mr Pac-10's Picks

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Dec 19, 2008

Collegefootballnews' Matthew Smith Picks all the Winners for all Bowl Games through Dec 30th

Pac-10 Games

Arizona (-3) vs BYU
This is an interesting game. Both teams can put loads of points on the board, and neither can play much defense. And to make it odder, they'll be playing in freezing cold weather, and perhaps snow to boot. BYU has an edge in being more used to playing in bad conditions, but Arizona is the team that can run the ball well, so their playing style ought to be suited to the weather. But the deciding factor here is that BYU seems to have the better team, and Arizona has been consistently sub-par away from Tucson, and this game certainly qualifies as that.
BYU 31, Arizona 27

Cal (-8) vs Miami
This line started at seven, but has picked up a bit. It's easy to see why, given that Cal has been very hot the past few games, and is practically playing in their own backyard. Playing at home rarely is a big deal for bowl games, but Miami will have to travel cross-country, and it's unlikely many of their fans will want to make the long trek for a low-level bowl. In other words, this time it could actually make a difference. Between the weather, the crowd, and a team that is more talented despite their injuries, Cal should win without too much trouble here.
Cal 38, Miami 27

Oregon (+3) vs Oklahoma St
This should be a fun game, as both teams can light up the scoreboard and neither plays much of any defense. Maybe I'm wrong, but I actually like the Ducks here. They haven't been greatly consistent, but when they're on they're virtually unstoppable, while it seems like the Cowboys peaked during their stretch of beating Missouri, demolishing Baylor, and almost knocking off Texas. Every since then, they just haven't been the same, and I think the trend continues, especially in a bowl game where it usually seems like the underdog wins.
Oregon 38, Oklahoma St 35

Non-Pac-10 Games

Navy vs Wake (-3)
Navy 28, Wake 24

Fresno St (-3) vs Colorado St
Colorado St 31, Fresno St 28
The underdog usually seems to win Fresno's bowl games, and I strongly suspect that the Rams are actually the better team.

Memphis vs USF (-11)
USF 35, Memphis 17

Troy (-4.5) vs USM
Troy 31, USM 21

TCU (-2.5) vs Boise St
TCU 28, Boise St 14
Boise is a legitimately good football team, but TCU is simply better.

Notre Dame (-1) vs Hawaii
Hawaii 35, Notre Dame 31

FAU vs CMU (-6)
CMU 38, FAU 21

West Virginia (-1.5) vs UNC
UNC 27, West Virginia 17

Wisconsin vs Florida St (-5)
Florida St 28, Wisconsin 20

Northern Illinois (pick) vs Louisiana Tech
Northern Illinois 24, Louisiana Tech 20

NC St vs Rutgers (-7)
Rutgers 35, NC St 20

Northwestern vs Missouri (-12)
Northwestern 31, Missouri 28
This is way too many points for the same Mizzou team that hasn't done much since Nov 1st against a Northwestern team that is pretty decent. Games that seem like mismatches to the naked eye but are actually reasonably close can often turn into big upset alerts, and I'm feeling it here.

Nevada (-2.5) vs Maryland
Nevada 31, Maryland 24

Western Michigan vs Rice (-2.5)
Rice 38, Western Michigan 31

Last Week's Record:
Pac-10: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
National: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
Bad Lines: 2-1

Regular Season Record:
Pac-10: 61-15 SU, 38-35-2 ATS
National: 29-19 SU, 20-27-1 ATS
Bad Lines: 63-40-1

Mr Pac-10's 2008 Blog

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