2009 AllState Sugar Bowl
Utah
(12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1)
January 2nd, 8:00
p.m. ET, Fox
Payout:
$14-17 million Location: Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans
LA
 |
|
National
Rankings |
|
Utah |
Alabama |
|
Total Offense |
|
31st 405.25 ypg |
56th 367.15 ypg |
|
Total Defense |
|
17th 295.92 ypg |
3rd 256.92 ypg |
|
Scoring Offense |
|
15th 37.42 ppg |
30th 31.15 ppg |
|
Scoring Defense |
|
12th 17.25 ppg |
6th 13 ppg |
|
Run Offense |
|
40th 168.42 ypg |
22nd 196.46 ypg |
|
Run Defense |
|
14th 104.83 ypg |
4th 78.85 ypg |
|
Pass Offense |
|
42nd 236.83 ypg |
96th 170.69 ypg |
|
Pass Defense |
|
37th 191.08 ypg |
21st 178.08 ypg |
|
Turnover Margin |
|
15th 0.92 |
22nd 0.62 |
|
Utah
at Michigan W 25-23
UNLV W 42-21
at Utah St W 58-10
at Air Force W 30-23
Weber St W 37-21
Oregon St W 31-28
at Wyoming W 40-7
Colorado St W 49-16
at N Mexico W 13-10
TCU W 13-10
at SDSU W 63-14
BYU W 48-24 |
Alabama
Clemson W 34-10
Tulane W 20-6
W Kentucky W 41-7
at Ark W 49-14
at Georgia W 41-30
Kentucky W 17-14
Ole Miss W 24-20
at Tenn W 29-9
Arkansas St W 35-0
at LSU W 27-21 OT
Miss St W 32-7
Auburn W 36-0
SEC Champ.
Florida L 31-20 |
|
Position
Ratings
relative to each
other |
|
U |
5
highest
1 lowest |
A |
|
5 |
Quarterbacks |
4 |
|
4 |
RBs |
5 |
|
3.5 |
Receivers |
3.5 |
|
3.5 |
O
Line |
5 |
|
3.5 |
D
Line |
5 |
|
4 |
Linebackers |
5 |
|
4.5 |
Secondary |
5 |
|
5 |
Spec
Teams |
4 |
|
4 |
Coaching |
5 |
|
This is not the 2008 Sugar Bowl
matchup, Utah is not Hawaii, and
this is not simply going to be a
token exhibition game for a non-BCS
conference. Utah is a real, live
12-0 team with the talent and
the experience to hang
toe-to-toe with a team like
Alabama.
Once it became obvious that the
Big East and ACC champions would
get pushed off into the Orange
Bowl corner, the big BCS
question was who was going to
get to play the non-BCS team.
It’s a no-win game for Alabama,
at least in the eyes of most of
the sports world. If Bama wins,
then it merely beat a non-BCS
team. If Bama loses, then it’s
Oklahoma losing to Boise State.
But that’s not the case in
either instance.
If Alabama comes out and blasts
Utah 41-10, like Georgia did
against Hawaii in last year’s
Sugar Bowl, then give credit
where credit is due. Utah is no
gimmick; it beat teams like TCU,
BYU, and Oregon State, while
having few problems with the
mediocre teams on the slate.
This is a tough, veteran team
with a strong offensive line,
and tough, physical defense, and
a bruising running game. This is
like an old-school Big Ten squad
more than a new-fangled spread
team, and it should let Bama
know that this isn’t going to be
a show; it’s going to be a
fight. However, while Utah is a
lot like Alabama, it’s not as
good.
Alabama came within a quarter of
playing for the national title,
and no matter what happens
against the Utes, the program is
back and about to go on a roll
not seen for over 30 years. Head
coach Nick Saban is stockpiling
a tremendous array of weapons
and talent, with more on the
way. Next year was supposed to
be when the Tide started to
enter the national title picture
again, but being a year ahead of
schedule isn’t a bad thing
considering how low the
expectations were coming into
the season. It helps that the
schedule didn’t turn out to be
as nasty as it originally
appeared.
While it’s easy to dog the
relatively light Utah schedule,
considering the win at Michigan
was supposed to be the big,
season-defining moment, it’s not
like Alabama’s year was that
great in hindsight. There
was a terrific win over a
mediocre Georgia, and everything
else of note was a struggle,
with the exception of the
season-opening win over a
Clemson team that didn’t turn
out to be that big a deal. Even
so, the Tide made it through the
regular season unbeaten, and
even though it was a down year
for the SEC, this was an
impressive year that needs to
end on a high note.
The Tide has gotten the job done
with a nice mix of an aggressive
defense, a veteran quarterback,
a good running game, young
athletes, and experience in key
spots. While all of the
attention has been on the
suspension of OT Andre Smith,
the All-American who’ll likely
be a top five pick in the 2009
NFL Draft, the team is good
enough to pick up the slack. The
rest of the offensive line is
tough, too, and QB John Parker
Wilson is an effective,
efficient playmaker who isn’t
going to make a slew of mistakes
and always comes through in
crunch time.
This is a battle tested Tide
team that survived challenges
from Kentucky and Ole Miss at a
time when most teams lose focus
and miss the seven-foot putt.
There was the gut-check overtime
win at LSU that threw a big
scare into the mix, but for the
most part, Bama dominated as the
season went on. Much has been
made about teams like Florida
and Oklahoma blowing teams out
down the stretch, but other than
the win over LSU, the other four
of the final five wins were by a
total score of 132 to 16. No one
runs the ball on the Tide,
including Tim Tebow, who got a
lot of praise for his
performance in the SEC title
game, but he only ran for 57
yards on 17 carries.
The Utes have gotten the job
done with a nice mix of an
aggressive defense, a veteran
quarterback, a good running
game, young athletes, and
experience in key spots … sound
familiar? This is a battle
tested team that survived
challenges from New Mexico and
Air Force at a time when most
teams lose focus and miss the
seven-foot putt … again, déjà vu
all over again. Utah has had
almost the same season Alabama
has had, but it won its biggest
games with an epic late drive to
get by TCU and its brilliant
defense, and it blew away BYU
thanks to a meltdown from Cougar
QB Max Hall.
Utah was the original BCS buster
with a win over Pitt in the 2004
Fiesta Bowl, but that was a more
dynamic team than this one. With
Urban Meyer as the head coach,
and Alex Smith under center,
that was a true spread team that
blew away teams with precision
and misdirection. This year’s
team, looking to keep alive the
Ute stretch of seven straight
bowl wins, is hardly flashy.
This is a power team that
doesn’t make mistakes and uses
the passing game to keep the
chains moving rather than come
up with the big play. In other
words, Alabama needs to make
sure the chinstraps are on tight
and the focus is fully there;
Utah isn’t going to get lost in
the glare of the Sugar Bowl
spotlight.
In any event, the game should be
among the best in the last
decade of mediocre Sugar Bowls,
give or take a Florida State –
Virginia Tech national
championship-type game here and
there. There won’t be a ton of
big plays, but there should be
plenty of big hits, great line
play, and rock-solid coaching
from both sides. Take away the
non-BCS league tag from Utah,
and this would be a big-time BCS
showdown just like any other.
Players to watch:
This is the final game in the
impressive, star-crossed career
of Utah senior QB Brian
Johnson. Originally
considered to be the ultimate
spread offense quarterback when
recruited by Urban Meyer,
Johnson started out his career
with tremendous promise as he
was getting his feet wet. Just
when everything started to
click, he suffered a devastating
knee injury that ended his 2005
season early and eventually cost
him all of 2006. He hasn’t been
the same player, he doesn’t have
the same mobility or burst, but
he has grown into a better
passer and he got better as the
season went on. Starting with
the season-defining drive to
beat TCU, Johnson ended the year
with a five touchdown
performance against San Diego
State and a near-perfect
30-of-36, 303-yard, four
touchdown day against BYU.
Utah can’t win unless Johnson is
flawless, but Alabama could
probably get by if John
Parker Wilson isn’t perfect.
However, the game will be a lot
easier if he is. The senior was
much-maligned early in his
career after having problems
with interceptions and mistakes
in key spots, but he has become
the school’s all-time leading
passer, his interceptions have
slowed down, and he’s become the
cliché of a game manager.
Usually that’s a knock to say he
can’t make the passing game go,
but it’s not his role to throw
for 350 yards. It’s his job to
hit his passes on third downs,
run once in a while to keep the
chains moving, and to make sure
he hits on one big play early on
to loosen things up for the
running game. He has a superstar
to help make that happen.
If Julio Jones wasn’t the
No. 1 recruit in the country
last year, he was in everyone’s
top three. A mix of size, speed,
and drive, he’s the near-perfect
wide receiver prospect who’s
been everything for the Bama
passing game. It’s not crazy to
suggest that he might have
become the team’s most valuable
player, even if he hasn’t been
the best player (that was Andre
Smith). The team could lose
almost anyone and still not miss
too much of a beat, but Jones if
the one receiving weapon who
demands extra safety attention
on every play. He only has four
touchdowns on the year and he
hasn’t scored since September 27th,
but he finished with 51 catches
for 847 yards and he was a
difference maker against
Tennessee, LSU and Florida.
In a game like this with two
teams with similar strengths, it
could come down to the kicking
game. Utah has, arguably, the
best all-around kicker in the
nation in senior Louie Sakoda,
who has connected on 56-of-65
career field goals, has a
punting average of over 42 yards
on 236 kicks, and has even
connected on 3-of-4 passes on
fakes. He has unlimited range in
all of his kicking duties, and
with Smith gone, and outside of
Jones, he could be the best pro
prospect on the field.
Utah will win if... the
run defense dominates. The Utes
are 14th in the
country against the run holding
Air Force to 53 yards, Michigan
to 36, and Oregon State to 92.
They haven’t faced an offensive
line anywhere near as good as
Alabama’s, even without Mr.
Smith, and they have to be able
to hold up and for John Parker
Wilson to win the game. It’s no
coincidence that three of the
Tide’s toughest games of the
year (Ole Miss, LSU and the loss
to Florida) came when the
running game wasn’t working
well. Tulane, before its
defensive front got blasted by
injuries, was able to hold the
Tide to 99 yards, and Utah can
do a bit of the same if it sells
out a little bit and takes a
chance that no one other than
Jones can hurt the secondary.
Utah can play a little pass
defense, too, allowing 14
touchdowns and picking off 17
passes.
Alabama will win if... Utah
has to play catch-up. Utah
doesn’t make any big mistakes,
but this isn’t a team designed
to make big comebacks. Attitude
will be everything in this game.
If Alabama can somehow get out
to a two-touchdown lead on a few
big early drives, the “oh no
it’s happening to the non-BCS
team” could start to creep in as
Utah will be taken out of its
comfort zone. That’s not to say
Johnson can’t make things happen
through the air when needed, and
this isn’t a team prone to
panic, but Bama is great at
letting the snowball roll and
can drop the hammer (and any
other cliché you’d like to use
for being able to capitalize on
positive momentum and play
better and better when things
are going well) as well as
anyone. Even without Smith, the
Tide offensive line will have
its moments when it controls the
game, and it has to keep the
time of possession on its side.
There won’t be many turnovers,
but Bama has to take advantage
of every scoring chance.
What will happen:
This will be a good game into
the fourth quarter, but Alabama
just won’t crack. There will be
times when it seems like Utah
will be right on the verge of
making something happen to take
the game over, but that’s when
the Alabama running game will
kick in with a long late drive
to stay ahead just enough to
pull out the hard-fought win.
The Tide will win, but Utah will
represent itself, and all non-BCS
teams, extremely well.
CFN Prediction:
Alabama 30 … Utah 16
...
Line: Alabama -11