2009 NFL Draft Blog
Physical Or The Statistical ... Which Option Is Better?
By
Hunter Ansley
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2009 NFL Combine Numbers
Quarterbacks
| Running Backs & Fullbacks
| Receivers
Tight
Ends | Centers & Guards
|
Off. Tackles
Def. Ends |
Def. Tackles
|
Inside LBs
|
Outside LBs
Cornerbacks |
Safeties
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2009 NFL Draft Post-Workout
Rankings
Quarterbacks |
Running Backs |
Fullbacks |
Receivers |
Tight Ends
Centers |
Guards |
Off. Tackles |
Def. Ends |
Def. Tackles
Inside LBs |
Outside LBs |
Cornerbacks |
Safeties
Physical Freaks versus Stat Geeks
It’s one of the all-time
classic draft debates. No,
not Leaf vs. Manning for the Colts.
Not even heart pills vs. a new Reebok track suit for Oakland’s Al
Davis. It’s production
against potential. Do you
want a proven guy who lit up the scoreboard like Christmas at Clark
Griswald’s house or a raw prospect with off-the-chart measurables who
makes Mel Kiper giggle like a schoolgirl?
Sure, there are other important traits that can’t be measured by
numbers on a page or digits on a stopwatch, but for now let’s just focus
on these two. Here’s a list
of three physical freaks who grade out higher than their stat geek
counterparts. And vice
versa.
Brawn over Brains
Physical Freak: Josh
Freeman, QB, Kansas State –
There’s not a quarterback in the entire draft with the total package of
physical tools that Freeman possesses.
He’s 6-06 250 pounds, has an arm that could have tossed Kevin
Costner farther than the catapult used in
Robin Hood, and he moves
surprisingly well. He’s
taken some heat for his low TD numbers, but Freeman’s got loads of
experience in a pro-style system and never had the talent around him
that someone like Mark Sanchez did.
It’s a good thing he’s so big; he put the whole Kansas State team
on his back every Saturday.
Vs.
Stats Geek: Graham Harrell,
QB, Texas Tech –
Harrell might as well spell his name s-y-s-t-e-m-q-b.
He put up 134 TDs and nearly 16,000 career yards in an offense
that has cranked out some of the most productive quarterbacks in recent
memory, but he will struggle to make a contribution at the next level.
He has marginal arm strength, a thin frame, and a bad habit of
making bad reads under pressure.
Not to mention the fact that Mike Leach basically ruins all of
his quarterbacks with that shotgun system he learned at “coaching
school.” It’s a little
tougher to find your target when starting under center.
Physical Freak: Vontae
Davis, CB, Illinois
– Now that Malcolm Jenkins has shown that Shakira was right and hips
don’t lie, especially the stiff kind, Davis is getting some
consideration as the top corner in the draft.
The younger brother of fellow freak Vernon Davis is a heck of an
athlete. Big bro put on
quite a show at the combine, and look where that got him drafted.
Vontae has unlimited potential, but consistency is still a
concern. True, he never
cornered the market on interceptions, but you can bet your last doubloon
on the fact that teams were often throwing the other way.
He’s got good size, good speed, and a real knack for recovering.
Vs.
Stats Geek: Alphonso Smith,
CB, Wake Forest
– You don’t become the ACC’s all-time leader in picked passes by being a
slouch. Smith has been the
consummate playmaker for Wake Forest throughout his career, and his size
was never much of a problem.
After measuring in at under 5-09 and running a 4.57 at the combine it’s
now officially an issue.
Smith will likely have to rent twin circus elephants that can hoist a
banner announcing his 21 interceptions if he wants any chance of
sneaking back into round one.
Sure, it’s not fair, and Smith will likely be a good corner even
if he has to wear platforms, but his stock has definitely dropped.
Physical Freak: Brian
Cushing, LB, USC
– There are concerns that Cushing has maxed out his potential due to
heavy supplementation. Is it
just me, or is everyone seemingly taking that statement at face value
without any thought to what it means?
Maxed out at 6-03 245 pounds with a reported 4.68 40 is not all
that bad. I seem to remember
a certain Broncos linebacker by the name of Romanowski who was a
creatine freak and one heck of football player.
Cushing has elite size and excellent playmaking ability.
He’ll be an asset to any team that picks him up.
And if not, he can always moonlight at the local GNC.
Vs.
Stats Geek: James
Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
– Strange to think that a guy whose dad stole the limelight with the
moniker “The Animal” is considered less than average when it comes to
athleticism. Laurinaitis may
have measurables that send Al Davis running for the john, but a good
football player is a good football player.
The former Ohio State linebacker’s 376 career tackles won’t get
him taken as highly as Cushing.
Those instincts, however, will help him become a solid starter
for years and a likely steal for any team that grabs him in round two.
Revenge of the Nerds
Stats Geek: Michael
Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech –
It may not be fair to list Crabtree on the other side of the physical
freak fence, but there is no denying his statistical prowess.
41 touchdown grabs in only two seasons?
Some of the guys projecting Crabtree to fall out of the top ten
probably can’t even count to 41.
Here’s the deal: with body
control like that and hands that could put Stickum out of business,
Crabtree will hear his name called early.
If the guy ran a 4.7 he would still be a playmaker.
The league is littered with track star wideouts who ran their way
straight out of the NFL.
Receivers who live on a highlight reel don’t end up in the trash bin.
Vs.
Physical Freak: Darrius
Heyward Bey, WR, Maryland
– Which brings us to our next prospect.
No one came close to combining the speed and size that Heyward
Bey displayed in Indianapolis.
After blazing through a 4.30 40 on the notoriously slow combine
surface, DHB likely has a marriage proposal coming from the Raiders.
Or, at the very least, a promise ring.
It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he came off the board with
the seventh pick. Still, his
route running needs refining, and he’s rawer than day old sushi, so he’s
not a top ten lock. But with
Al Davis at the helm, who knows?
Stats Geek: Brian Orakpo,
DE, Texas –
Orakpo may be the unquestioned number one defensive end in this draft
class, but it’s not because he fits a perfect mold.
At 6-03 260 pounds, he lacks ideal height and has a frame that is
likely maxed out weight-wise.
So why is he still so sought after?
It might be those 11 sacks he accumulated as a senior or the 38
career tackles for loss.
Orakpo has the quickness and the drive to become a pass rushing terror
in the NFL. He may not have
the same ceiling as Johnson, but there’s less risk involved due to his
production. Sure Alex Boone
shut him down in the Fiesta Bowl, but if he ever faces Boone in the pros
he better bring a bottle of peppermint Schnapps and a keg of Milwaukee’s
Best to level the playing field.
Because, you know, that’s probably what Boone drinks.
Vs.
Physical Freak: Michael
Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
– This guy is the king of physical freaks.
Of course, I wouldn’t call him that to his face.
If you could design a prototypical defensive end, he would look
an awful lot like the 6-07 266 pound former yellow jacket.
He’d probably get clocked at under 4.5 seconds in the 40 as well.
There is no denying Johnson’s elite skill set, but scouts are
quick to label him an underachiever.
I think inconsistent is a better fit.
17.5 tackles for loss, nine sacks, and seven passes broken up is
a strange way to underachieve.
Still, with talent like that, he probably would have had to notch
30 sacks to live up to his hype, and his draft stock will continue to
suffer every time someone mutters the word “bust.”
Stats Geek: Donald Brown,
RB, Connecticut
– Everyone knows about Donald Brown’s 2000+ yard junior season, but what
they don’t know is that he didn’t exactly come out of nowhere.
He put up 1717 rushing yards in the two seasons before he became
the best back ever to fall short of qualifying as a Doak Walker Award
finalist. With recent
underweight issues raising some heavy question marks about LeSean McCoy,
and with Chris Wells’ addiction to injuries, Brown is getting some
consideration as the number two back in this class.
His 18 touchdowns in 2008 won’t hurt his stock, and neither will
his 21 receptions. But the
fact that he may be too thin to take an NFL pounding keeps him from
being a first round lock.
Vs.
Physical Freak: Andre Brown,
RB, North Carolina State
– There aren’t many
players who have helped themselves as much this offseason as
this Brown.
He certainly didn’t do himself any favors during his four years
in Raleigh. In fact, Andre’s
four year rushing total is only a few hundred more than Donald’s senior
season total. Strange things
can happen at the Senior Bowl though (just ask Robert Ayers, perhaps the
most overrated prospect in the draft), and if you show up in Mobile,
scouts have a funny habit of forgetting about your Saturday shortcomings.
Brown caught the ball extremely well during the All-Star game,
and his size (6-00 224) is an attractive draw when coupled with his 4.49
combine 40. Just beware
scouts. Guys like Andre and
Ayers may have been impressive for one week, but they were nothing but
average for four years.
Hunter Ansley
runs
www.draftzoo.com