CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
The Bottom 20
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being
asked to turn things around right away. Five years
allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting
cycle, get comfortable in the position, and
implement everything he'd like to do. With that in
mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program
Analysis (it used to be three years, but we
supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors
like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go
to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge
selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays
the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success
ends up being all that matters, so that's where the
focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might
not add up because we have listed the total number
of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad
Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be
scored differently (two home losses against 3-9
teams would be scored as a 3).
Quick
Explanation of Scores
- Attendance:
Home attendance average over the last five years divided by
10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance
Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th
percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score:
28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage
times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in
a bowl over teams that finished
with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win
over a two-loss team
on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with
three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract
each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5
for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with
two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg.
Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64
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Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and
Categories
-
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120*. Western Kentucky
Total Five-Year Program Score: -1.67 (but incomplete)
Program Analysis ... WKU has moved up from
the ranks of the FCS to a provisional FBS team to
now, when it makes its move into the FCS club.
However, the program's recent history doesn't
translate over to the ranking of the FCS teams, with
the score coming from just one year as a fringe Sun
Belt team. The 2009 score was -1.67 with the stats
all starting to kick in next year.
119.
FIU
Total Five-Year Program Score: 3.76
Attendance Score: 1.26
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 8
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 9
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 2.50
Program Analysis ... Mario Cristobal
has made a big improvement leading the program to a
5-7 2008, but a winless 2006 and a 1-11 2007 made it
hard to make too much noise. FIU's low APR score
doesn't help, while the lack of butts in the seats
and players drafted dragged the score down further.
However, things are on the upswing. The team is
better, the wins will come, and the fans will
follow. Even so, it's going to take a few years to
move up with the miserable recent seasons staying in
the formula.
118.
Idaho
Total Five-Year Program Score: 5.76
Attendance Score: 1.46
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 9
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 9
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.05
Program Analysis ... There was a time when
Idaho was a Big West powerhouse. But while Boise
State has gone on to bigger and better things, Idaho
has gone into the tank. Hurt mostly by the coaching
inconsistency, with Dennis Erickson bailing after
one year to go to Arizona State, and Nick Holt
quitting after a campaign to be an assistant at USC,
it has been a long climb to try to get back to
respectability. The lack of wins is the biggest
problem with Robb Akey failing to turn things around
in his first few seasons. There were only nine wins
over FBS teams, there were eight Bad Wins, and no
Quality Wins. The last victory over an FBS team that
finished with a winning record came in the 1998
Humanitarian Bowl over Southern Mississippi. That
means Idaho has gone 126 games, and more than a
decade, without beating anyone with a pulse.
117.
New Mexico State
Total Five-Year Program Score: 6.66
Attendance Score: 1.61
APR Score: 2
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 9
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 8.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 2.05
Program Analysis ... The Hal Mumme
experiment was in interesting failure, and now it'll
be up to former UCLA assistant DeWayne Walker to
turn things around with a more traditional offense
and a tougher defense. The Aggies put up lots of
passing numbers over the last few years, but with no
consistency and little defensive production, there
was next to nothing to show for the minor offensive
successes. Quality Wins over Nevada last year and
Troy in 2004 kept NMSU from hitting rock bottom, but
it's not far off. With ten Bad Wins and just nine
victories over FBS teams, it's hard to generate too
much excitement. The real killer in the formula is
the 8.5 Bad Loss score, but the team will take wins
any way it can get them at the moment.
116.
North
Texas
Total Five-Year Program Score: 10.57
Attendance Score: 1.64
APR Score: 2
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 13
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 8.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 3.43
Program Analysis ... North Texas ranked
80th when we did our three-year program analysis in
2003 after becoming the dominant program in the Sun
Belt conference. Things quickly changed and head
coach Todd Dodge hasn't been able to pull the plane
up out of the nosedive. There have been too many bad
losses, not enough decent wins, and there's been
little production in conference play. Not going to
class, no drafted players, and the lack of fans in
the stands hasn't helped, but the biggest problem,
like it is for all teams on the bottom rung of this
ladder is the lack of victories with just one FBS
win in the last two seasons. The last North Texas
Quality Win came against New Mexico State on
November 16th, 2002.
115. Temple
Total Five-Year Program Score: 14.01
Attendance Score: 1.79
APR Score: 1
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 11
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 2.22
Program Analysis ... Temple could be one of
the biggest high risers in the rankings over the
next few seasons. Head coach Al Golden has recruited
well and he has things pointed in the right
direction, but it's been hard to escape a brutal
recent history. Temple had just two wins over FBS
teams from 2004 to 2006, and that doesn't include
the 1-11 2003 campaign. The worst possible APR Score
is just as embarrassing as the lack of production on
the field, and predictably for a team this bad, the
attendance has been abysmal, saved mostly by a few
home games against Penn State (with Nittany Lion
packing the house). The last Quality Win was over
Boston College on October 9, 1999 while the last
winning season was in 1990. That upset over BC was
the lone win over a team that finished with a
winning record since a 31-28 victory over Virginia
Tech in October of 1990. Several players on the
current Temple team hadn't even been born.
114.
Kent State
Total Five-Year Program Score: 14.12
Attendance Score: 1.12
APR Score: 3
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 15
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 9.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 3.25
Program Analysis ... It always seems like
Kent State should be making more noise. It has had
some flashy players like Joshua Cribbs, James
Harrison, and Eugene Jarvis, and there have been
some decent defenses, but there haven't been enough
wins. The Attendance Score is the worst on the
board, and even that's generous with only a handful
of fans attending several late season games. By
November, the season is usually gone. The ranking
could be even worse next season when the 5-6 2004
campaign isn't counted in the final tally. There
have been too many bad losses and not enough
conference wins.
113. Duke
Total Five-Year Program Score: 15.42
Attendance Score: 2.17
APR Score: 10
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 5
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 3
Conf. Score: 0.50
Program Analysis ... Duke 31, Virginia 3
(last year) and Duke 16, Clemson 13 (2004). Those
are the only ACC wins over the last five years as
the program has failed to do much of anything to
make any conference noise. New head coach David
Cutcliffe has made the team more competitive, and
there have been some close calls over the years, but
with just five wins over FBS teams in five seasons,
it's hard to sell the program on top recruits. The
one thing going Duke's way is the top APR score; the
Blue Devils might not be doing much on the field,
but at least they're going to class. The Conference
Score is by far the worst among all FBS teams, while
the mere five FBS wins are three behind the season
worst team in the category, Florida International.
112.
Utah State
Total Five-Year Program Score: 16.21
Attendance Score: 1.39
APR Score: 4
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.56
Program Analysis ... Utah State wasn't
awful in the early 1990s, there was a win over Ball
State in the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl, but the program
hasn't shown up yet in the WAC. Worse yet, when it
does get a conference win, it's seen as one of the
low points in the season for the opposing team. New
head coach Gary Andersen is trying to instill a
better attitude and more toughness, like all new
head coaches say they're going to do, but he could
actually pull it off. There are some decent pieces
to build around, like QB Diondre Borel, but the WAC
wins have to start flowing. The league has enough
dregs to come up with a few victories a year, and
now the Aggies have to start beating some of the
better teams. The last Quality Win came in 2002.
111. UNLV
Total Five-Year Program Score: 18.26
Attendance Score: 2.22
APR Score: 4
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 4
Conf. Score: 1.54
Program Analysis ... The program of lost
dreams and shattered expectations, UNLV appeared to
be close to turning the corner into powerhouse
status a decade ago when John Robinson was at the
helm. It didn't happen, and Mike Sanford has seen
just how hard it is to create a winner despite being
a whale of a spread offense coach. The Rebels
(they're not the Runnin' Rebels) have been abysmal
in Mountain West play and there haven't been enough
big wins to get on the map. On the plus side, the
team was in a perfect position to get to a bowl game
and take a big step forward before clunking in last
year's season finale at San Diego State. It
shouldn't take too much to get that one extra win
needed, but there will need to be a few upsets, like
last year's victory over Arizona State, along the
way.
110. Tulane
Total Five-Year Program Score: 20.10
Attendance Score: 2.10
APR Score: 8
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 11
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 2.50
Program Analysis ... There's been a
coaching change, struggles with recruiting, and a
lack of talent across the board. Oh yeah, and the
city of New Orleans was almost wiped off the map by
Hurricane Katrina. Tulane gets a free pass after all
the struggles following the dramatic 2005 season,
when the team took its nomadic journey to play a
full season of road games. Football-wise, the
program is still a far cry from the heady days when
it ruled the Conference USA roost, but head coach
Bob Toledo has created an interesting rushing
offense that made a star out of Matt Forte. Tulane
football is still alive and kicking, but the fans
need to be there and the APR Score, for a school as
academically strong as Tulane, should be a bit
higher.
109.
Buffalo
Total Five-Year Program Score: 21.86
Attendance Score: 1.36
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 18
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 3.50
Program Analysis ... The worst program in
college football according to our 2006 rankings,
Buffalo has made a miraculous turnaround thanks to
Turner Gill. While there's only one Quality Win over
the last five years, the shocking MAC Championship
upset over Ball State, the program needed wins and
it got them last season. Years of being a MAC
doormat were wiped away with the one big year, and
the ranking should shoot up the charts over the next
few seasons when the 2-9 2004 season is gone along
with the 1-10 2005 campaign. The talent level has
improved and the Draft score is almost certain to
goo up with RB James Starks and WR Naaman Roosevelt
each certain to get picked next year.
108.
San Jose State
Total Five-Year Program Score: 21.99
Attendance Score: 1.49
APR Score: 1
Draft: 6
FBS Wins: 20
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 18
Conf. Score: 4.00
Program Analysis ... Dick Tomey is trying.
He hasn't exactly brought his Desert Swarm defense
to San Jose, but for a program that was close to
being eliminated a few years ago, it's not doing too
poorly winning 17 FBS games over the last three
seasons. Things will only get better over the next
few years in the rankings with the 2-9 2004 season
being pushed aside and the 3-8 2005 campaign soon to
be out of the equation. The Draft score is solid and
shows that yes, you can go to San Jose State and get
to the next level. Tomey knows how to coach, and he
has a good team returning this season. It's not a
stretch to say he saved San Jose State football, but
now he has to show his players where the library is
after an embarrassing bottom rung APR score.
107.
SMU
Total Five-Year Program Score: 22.02
Attendance Score: 1.77
APR Score: 7
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 2.75
Program Analysis ... Unless June Jones has
a miracle or three up his sleeve, SMU could tumble
down the rankings in a big way over the next few
seasons. The program is only this high because of a
5-6 2005 and a 6-6 2006, with disaster striking in
each of the last two 1-11 campaigns. Better play in
Conference USA games would be a nice start, and
getting more fans in the stands wouldn't hurt, but
the key, for now, i to keep improving the
high-octane passing game. If Jones can make SMU the
Texas version of Hawaii, and if he can get the
defense to stop someone once in a while, there's a
chance things can turn around by 2011. If nothing
else, this will be fun to watch.
106.
ULM
Total Five-Year Program Score: 23.77
Attendance Score: 1.59
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 5
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 5.43
Program Analysis ... ULM has had some
decent offenses and it's been close to having
success, but it hasn't happened under head coach
Charlie Weatherbie. The low APR score doesn't help
and the Attendance score is lousy, but the team has
won over half its conference games over the last
five seasons and it even shocked the world with a
win at Alabama two years ago. Not losing to the
awful teams would be a big help, with a Bad Loss
score weighting the program down. Is the program
growing stale? Does it need a new direction?
Weatherbie has another year to change the momentum.
105. Eastern Michigan
Total Five-Year Program Score: 23.79
Attendance Score: 1.20
APR Score: 5
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 3.33
Program Analysis ... Even with this low
ranking, it seems high for a team with just 14 FBS
wins over five years. Jeff Genyk did everything
possible and pulled out every stop to get something
positive happening, but it didn't work. However,
there's a silver lining to all the failures: Ron
English. EMU got a great coach to take over and he
should do a better job in recruiting and should have
a little more luck. EMU has been a hard-luck team
over the last several years, losing a ton of close
games, so it might not take too much tweaking to for
the success to come. With wins will hopefully come
fans; a low Attendance score would be taxing for any
athletic department.
104.
UAB
Total Five-Year Program Score: 24.99
Attendance Score: 1.99
APR Score: 1
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 18
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 0
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 3.50
Program Analysis ... There was so much
promise in 2004 when Darrell Hackney and the Blazers
cranked out a 7-5 season that was a rousing success,
even with a 59-40 loss to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl.
That season is gone off next year's formula and UAB
could sink like a stone. There have been wins, just
not enough of them, and off-the-field scores are a
killer. The low Attendance score is to be expected,
but the program is bad in the classroom as well as
on the field with the lowest possible APR score.
Roddy White was the one star drafted in recent
years, showing how badly the talent needs to be
upgraded. Joe Webb is a fun quarterback who needs to
carry the team through Conference USA play for UAB
to have any hope of at least staying up this high
next year.
103.
Louisiana-Lafayette
Total Five-Year Program Score: 25.73
Attendance Score: 1.83
APR Score: 3
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 22
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 5.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.14
Program Analysis ... The team has been on a
lower tier from the Sun Belt stars like Troy and
Florida Atlantic, but it's been close to making the
step up with a nice 6-6 campaign last season and 22
FBS wins overall. Being better in Sun Belt play is a
must after barely winning half the conference games
over the last five years, and there haven't been any
big wins over the top teams. This is a key year for
Rickey Bustle, who's going into his seventh season
as the head coach. He needs to show that the
potential is there to not just come up with a
winning season and get to a bowl game, but to be
also more of a player in the Sun Belt title race.
102. Army
Total Five-Year Program Score: 26.54
Attendance Score: 3.06
APR Score: 9
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 5
Conf. Score: 2.73*
* Since Army doesn't play in a conference, the
Conference Score is the winning percentage over the
last five years.
Program Analysis ... Help has arrived.
After years of not figuring out what it wanted to
be, Army has the head coach who could make
everything alright. Rich Ellerson made Cal Poly into
an entertaining FCS powerhouse, and he'll do wonders
adding his version of the option on offense and
aggressive, attacking style on defense. The Knights
tried to be Texas Tech for a little while, tried to
make a wholesale change and become Navy running the
ball, and now it'll be a little of both ... in time.
Ellerson's offenses can run and throw equally well,
and the wins should start coming. The APR and
Attendance scores will always keep Army from the
bottom of the rankings, but the mere 12 wins are a
problem. However, the 2-9 2004 season doesn't count
in next year's formula.
101. San Diego State
Total Five-Year Program Score: 28.16
Attendance Score: 3.08
APR Score: 3
Draft: 10
FBS Wins: 16
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 10
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 3.33
Program Analysis ... Well that didn't work.
Chuck Long was supposed to be the new hot
head coach and San Diego State was supposed to be a
mere stepping stone to bigger and better things.
Instead, the Aztecs couldn't play defense, were
stunningly awful on offense, and they won just nine
games over the last three seasons. In comes Brady
Hoke, who did the near impossible and made Ball
State relevant. It's been hard to make San Diego
State a winner, maybe the weather is too nice to
create a nasty football attitude, but Hoke knows how
to get an offense moving. It's going to take a few
years, but the coaching upgrade should pay off.