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CFN Five-Year Program Ranking - The Bottom 20
FIU CB Anthony Gaitor
FIU CB Anthony Gaitor
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 27, 2009


Starting from the bottom up, here is a detailed look at all 120 football programs in CFN's 2009 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis. From classroom performance, attendance, players drafted, to wins, wins and more wins, we look at what each program has done over the last five years and rank accordingly.

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

The Bottom 20
 

Program Rankings

- CFN Scoring System
- 2009 CFN Preview
- No. 1 USC
- No. 2 Texas
- No. 3 Oklahoma
- No. 4 Ohio State
- No. 5 Florida
- No. 6 Georgia
- No. 7 LSU
- No. 8 Virginia Tech
- No. 9 Auburn
- No. 10 Michigan
- 11 to 20
- 21 to 40
- 41 to 60
- 61 to 80
- 81 to 100
- 101 to 120
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program Analysis (it used to be three years, but we supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we have listed the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64

- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

- CLICK HERE for FREE Expert Football Selections from ATS Consultants

120*. Western Kentucky 

Total Five-Year Program Score: -1.67 (but incomplete)

Program Analysis ... WKU has moved up from the ranks of the FCS to a provisional FBS team to now, when it makes its move into the FCS club. However, the program's recent history doesn't translate over to the ranking of the FCS teams, with the score coming from just one year as a fringe Sun Belt team. The 2009 score was -1.67 with the stats all starting to kick in next year.

119. FIU 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 3.76
Attendance Score: 1.26
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 8
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 9
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 2.50

Program Analysis ... Mario Cristobal has made a big improvement leading the program to a 5-7 2008, but a winless 2006 and a 1-11 2007 made it hard to make too much noise. FIU's low APR score doesn't help, while the lack of butts in the seats and players drafted dragged the score down further. However, things are on the upswing. The team is better, the wins will come, and the fans will follow. Even so, it's going to take a few years to move up with the miserable recent seasons staying in the formula.

118. Idaho 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 5.76
Attendance Score: 1.46
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 9
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 9
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.05

Program Analysis ... There was a time when Idaho was a Big West powerhouse. But while Boise State has gone on to bigger and better things, Idaho has gone into the tank. Hurt mostly by the coaching inconsistency, with Dennis Erickson bailing after one year to go to Arizona State, and Nick Holt quitting after a campaign to be an assistant at USC, it has been a long climb to try to get back to respectability. The lack of wins is the biggest problem with Robb Akey failing to turn things around in his first few seasons. There were only nine wins over FBS teams, there were eight Bad Wins, and no Quality Wins. The last victory over an FBS team that finished with a winning record came in the 1998 Humanitarian Bowl over Southern Mississippi. That means Idaho has gone 126 games, and more than a decade, without beating anyone with a pulse.

117. New Mexico State 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 6.66
Attendance Score: 1.61
APR Score: 2
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 9
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 8.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 2.05

Program Analysis ... The Hal Mumme experiment was in interesting failure, and now it'll be up to former UCLA assistant DeWayne Walker to turn things around with a more traditional offense and a tougher defense. The Aggies put up lots of passing numbers over the last few years, but with no consistency and little defensive production, there was next to nothing to show for the minor offensive successes. Quality Wins over Nevada last year and Troy in 2004 kept NMSU from hitting rock bottom, but it's not far off. With ten Bad Wins and just nine victories over FBS teams, it's hard to generate too much excitement. The real killer in the formula is the 8.5 Bad Loss score, but the team will take wins any way it can get them at the moment.

116. North Texas 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 10.57
Attendance Score: 1.64
APR Score: 2
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 13
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 8.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 3.43

Program Analysis ... North Texas ranked 80th when we did our three-year program analysis in 2003 after becoming the dominant program in the Sun Belt conference. Things quickly changed and head coach Todd Dodge hasn't been able to pull the plane up out of the nosedive. There have been too many bad losses, not enough decent wins, and there's been little production in conference play. Not going to class, no drafted players, and the lack of fans in the stands hasn't helped, but the biggest problem, like it is for all teams on the bottom rung of this ladder is the lack of victories with just one FBS win in the last two seasons. The last North Texas Quality Win came against New Mexico State on November 16th, 2002.

115. Temple 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 14.01
Attendance Score: 1.79
APR Score: 1
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 11
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 2.22

Program Analysis ... Temple could be one of the biggest high risers in the rankings over the next few seasons. Head coach Al Golden has recruited well and he has things pointed in the right direction, but it's been hard to escape a brutal recent history. Temple had just two wins over FBS teams from 2004 to 2006, and that doesn't include the 1-11 2003 campaign. The worst possible APR Score is just as embarrassing as the lack of production on the field, and predictably for a team this bad, the attendance has been abysmal, saved mostly by a few home games against Penn State (with Nittany Lion packing the house). The last Quality Win was over Boston College on October 9, 1999 while the last winning season was in 1990. That upset over BC was the lone win over a team that finished with a winning record since a 31-28 victory over Virginia Tech in October of 1990. Several players on the current Temple team hadn't even been born.

114. Kent State 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 14.12
Attendance Score: 1.12
APR Score: 3
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 15
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 9.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 3.25

Program Analysis ... It always seems like Kent State should be making more noise. It has had some flashy players like Joshua Cribbs, James Harrison, and Eugene Jarvis, and there have been some decent defenses, but there haven't been enough wins. The Attendance Score is the worst on the board, and even that's generous with only a handful of fans attending several late season games. By November, the season is usually gone. The ranking could be even worse next season when the 5-6 2004 campaign isn't counted in the final tally. There have been too many bad losses and not enough conference wins.

113. Duke 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 15.42
Attendance Score: 2.17
APR Score: 10
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 5
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 3
Conf. Score: 0.50

Program Analysis ... Duke 31, Virginia 3 (last year) and Duke 16, Clemson 13 (2004). Those are the only ACC wins over the last five years as the program has failed to do much of anything to make any conference noise. New head coach David Cutcliffe has made the team more competitive, and there have been some close calls over the years, but with just five wins over FBS teams in five seasons, it's hard to sell the program on top recruits. The one thing going Duke's way is the top APR score; the Blue Devils might not be doing much on the field, but at least they're going to class. The Conference Score is by far the worst among all FBS teams, while the mere five FBS wins are three behind the season worst team in the category, Florida International.

112. Utah State 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 16.21
Attendance Score: 1.39
APR Score: 4
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.56

Program Analysis ... Utah State wasn't awful in the early 1990s, there was a win over Ball State in the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl, but the program hasn't shown up yet in the WAC. Worse yet, when it does get a conference win, it's seen as one of the low points in the season for the opposing team. New head coach Gary Andersen is trying to instill a better attitude and more toughness, like all new head coaches say they're going to do, but he could actually pull it off. There are some decent pieces to build around, like QB Diondre Borel, but the WAC wins have to start flowing. The league has enough dregs to come up with a few victories a year, and now the Aggies have to start beating some of the better teams. The last Quality Win came in 2002.

111. UNLV 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 18.26
Attendance Score: 2.22
APR Score: 4
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 4
Conf. Score: 1.54

Program Analysis ... The program of lost dreams and shattered expectations, UNLV appeared to be close to turning the corner into powerhouse status a decade ago when John Robinson was at the helm. It didn't happen, and Mike Sanford has seen just how hard it is to create a winner despite being a whale of a spread offense coach. The Rebels (they're not the Runnin' Rebels) have been abysmal in Mountain West play and there haven't been enough big wins to get on the map. On the plus side, the team was in a perfect position to get to a bowl game and take a big step forward before clunking in last year's season finale at San Diego State. It shouldn't take too much to get that one extra win needed, but there will need to be a few upsets, like last year's victory over Arizona State, along the way.

110. Tulane 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 20.10
Attendance Score: 2.10
APR Score: 8
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 11
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 2.50

Program Analysis ... There's been a coaching change, struggles with recruiting, and a lack of talent across the board. Oh yeah, and the city of New Orleans was almost wiped off the map by Hurricane Katrina. Tulane gets a free pass after all the struggles following the dramatic 2005 season, when the team took its nomadic journey to play a full season of road games. Football-wise, the program is still a far cry from the heady days when it ruled the Conference USA roost, but head coach Bob Toledo has created an interesting rushing offense that made a star out of Matt Forte. Tulane football is still alive and kicking, but the fans need to be there and the APR Score, for a school as academically strong as Tulane, should be a bit higher.

109. Buffalo 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 21.86
Attendance Score: 1.36
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 18
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 3.50

Program Analysis ... The worst program in college football according to our 2006 rankings, Buffalo has made a miraculous turnaround thanks to Turner Gill. While there's only one Quality Win over the last five years, the shocking MAC Championship upset over Ball State, the program needed wins and it got them last season. Years of being a MAC doormat were wiped away with the one big year, and the ranking should shoot up the charts over the next few seasons when the 2-9 2004 season is gone along with the 1-10 2005 campaign. The talent level has improved and the Draft score is almost certain to goo up with RB James Starks and WR Naaman Roosevelt each certain to get picked next year.

108. San Jose State 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 21.99
Attendance Score: 1.49
APR Score: 1
Draft: 6
FBS Wins: 20
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 18
Conf. Score: 4.00

Program Analysis ... Dick Tomey is trying. He hasn't exactly brought his Desert Swarm defense to San Jose, but for a program that was close to being eliminated a few years ago, it's not doing too poorly winning 17 FBS games over the last three seasons. Things will only get better over the next few years in the rankings with the 2-9 2004 season being pushed aside and the 3-8 2005 campaign soon to be out of the equation. The Draft score is solid and shows that yes, you can go to San Jose State and get to the next level. Tomey knows how to coach, and he has a good team returning this season. It's not a stretch to say he saved San Jose State football, but now he has to show his players where the library is after an embarrassing bottom rung APR score.

107. SMU 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 22.02
Attendance Score: 1.77
APR Score: 7
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 2.75

Program Analysis ... Unless June Jones has a miracle or three up his sleeve, SMU could tumble down the rankings in a big way over the next few seasons. The program is only this high because of a 5-6 2005 and a 6-6 2006, with disaster striking in each of the last two 1-11 campaigns. Better play in Conference USA games would be a nice start, and getting more fans in the stands wouldn't hurt, but the key, for now, i to keep improving the high-octane passing game. If Jones can make SMU the Texas version of Hawaii, and if he can get the defense to stop someone once in a while, there's a chance things can turn around by 2011. If nothing else, this will be fun to watch.

106. ULM 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 23.77
Attendance Score: 1.59
APR Score: 2
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 5
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 5.43

Program Analysis ... ULM has had some decent offenses and it's been close to having success, but it hasn't happened under head coach Charlie Weatherbie. The low APR score doesn't help and the Attendance score is lousy, but the team has won over half its conference games over the last five seasons and it even shocked the world with a win at Alabama two years ago. Not losing to the awful teams would be a big help, with a Bad Loss score weighting the program down. Is the program growing stale? Does it need a new direction? Weatherbie has another year to change the momentum.

105. Eastern Michigan 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 23.79
Attendance Score: 1.20
APR Score: 5
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 3.33

Program Analysis ... Even with this low ranking, it seems high for a team with just 14 FBS wins over five years. Jeff Genyk did everything possible and pulled out every stop to get something positive happening, but it didn't work. However, there's a silver lining to all the failures: Ron English. EMU got a great coach to take over and he should do a better job in recruiting and should have a little more luck. EMU has been a hard-luck team over the last several years, losing a ton of close games, so it might not take too much tweaking to for the success to come. With wins will hopefully come fans; a low Attendance score would be taxing for any athletic department.

104. UAB 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 24.99
Attendance Score: 1.99
APR Score: 1
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 18
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses:  0
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 3.50

Program Analysis ... There was so much promise in 2004 when Darrell Hackney and the Blazers cranked out a 7-5 season that was a rousing success, even with a 59-40 loss to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. That season is gone off next year's formula and UAB could sink like a stone. There have been wins, just not enough of them, and off-the-field scores are a killer. The low Attendance score is to be expected, but the program is bad in the classroom as well as on the field with the lowest possible APR score. Roddy White was the one star drafted in recent years, showing how badly the talent needs to be upgraded. Joe Webb is a fun quarterback who needs to carry the team through Conference USA play for UAB to have any hope of at least staying up this high next year.

103. Louisiana-Lafayette 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 25.73
Attendance Score: 1.83
APR Score: 3
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 22
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 5.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.14

Program Analysis ... The team has been on a lower tier from the Sun Belt stars like Troy and Florida Atlantic, but it's been close to making the step up with a nice 6-6 campaign last season and 22 FBS wins overall. Being better in Sun Belt play is a must after barely winning half the conference games over the last five years, and there haven't been any big wins over the top teams. This is a key year for Rickey Bustle, who's going into his seventh season as the head coach. He needs to show that the potential is there to not just come up with a winning season and get to a bowl game, but to be also more of a player in the Sun Belt title race.

102. Army 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 26.54
Attendance Score: 3.06
APR Score: 9
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 5
Conf. Score: 2.73*

* Since Army doesn't play in a conference, the Conference Score is the winning percentage over the last five years.

Program Analysis ... Help has arrived. After years of not figuring out what it wanted to be, Army has the head coach who could make everything alright. Rich Ellerson made Cal Poly into an entertaining FCS powerhouse, and he'll do wonders adding his version of the option on offense and aggressive, attacking style on defense. The Knights tried to be Texas Tech for a little while, tried to make a wholesale change and become Navy running the ball, and now it'll be a little of both ... in time. Ellerson's offenses can run and throw equally well, and the wins should start coming. The APR and Attendance scores will always keep Army from the bottom of the rankings, but the mere 12 wins are a problem. However, the 2-9 2004 season doesn't count in next year's formula.

101. San Diego State 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 28.16
Attendance Score: 3.08
APR Score: 3
Draft: 10
FBS Wins: 16
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 10
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 3.33

Program Analysis ... Well that didn't work. Chuck Long was supposed to be the new hot head coach and San Diego State was supposed to be a mere stepping stone to bigger and better things. Instead, the Aztecs couldn't play defense, were stunningly awful on offense, and they won just nine games over the last three seasons. In comes Brady Hoke, who did the near impossible and made Ball State relevant. It's been hard to make San Diego State a winner, maybe the weather is too nice to create a nasty football attitude, but Hoke knows how to get an offense moving. It's going to take a few years, but the coaching upgrade should pay off.






























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