CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
No. 81 to 100
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being
asked to turn things around right away. Five years
allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting
cycle, get comfortable in the position, and
implement everything he'd like to do. With that in
mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program
Analysis (it used to be three years, but we
supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors
like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go
to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge
selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays
the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success
ends up being all that matters, so that's where the
focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might
not add up because we have listed the total number
of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad
Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be
scored differently (two home losses against 3-9
teams would be scored as a 3).
Quick
Explanation of Scores
- Attendance:
Home attendance average over the last five years divided by
10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance
Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th
percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score:
28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage
times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in
a bowl over teams that finished
with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win
over a two-loss team
on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with
three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract
each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5
for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with
two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg.
Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64
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Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and
Categories
-
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100. Baylor
Total Five-Year Program Score: 28.25
Attendance Score: 3.50
APR Score: 5
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 2.00
Program Analysis ... How bad has Baylor
football been? A 4-8 season with the mere potential
to not be awful is enough to get the fan base riled
up. Of course, having a quarterback like Robert
Griffin, who could be the fastest player to ever
play the position, certainly helps. There's still
one little problem: the Big 12 South. Being stuck in
the toughest division in college football makes it
hard to make too much noise, and while head coach
Art Briles is a true believer who honestly thinks he
can make BU football a winner, he still has to deal
with Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech,
and Texas A&M ever year. Just getting to a bowl game
would be enough to put Briles in the Coach of the
Year discussions.
99.
Washington
Total Five-Year Program Score: 32.00
Attendance Score: 6.36
APR Score: 8
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 11
Bad Wins: 4
Conf. Score: 1.40
Program Analysis ... In 2003, Washington
was ranked No. 14 in the CFN Three-Year Program
Analysis. No. 14. U-Dub was one of the nation's
power programs, highlighted by the 2001 Rose Bowl,
and it was considered a major shocker when the team
went 6-6 in 2003. And then the bottom dropped out
with a 1-10 2004 season that came from out of
nowhere. The hope was that the glory would be
restored when Ty Willingham was hired. Even after a
rough go at Notre Dame, Willingham had taken
Stanford to a Rose Bowl and he knew the Pac 10, but
instead things got even worse. The knock on
Willingham in South Bend was that he couldn't
recruit, and that became evident in Seattle as the
program bottomed out with an 0-12 2008. At least the
players have been going to class and the attendance
hasn't been that awful, but winning 14% of Pac 10
games in five years is as low as it gets. Steve
Sarkisian has a long road to climb.
98.
Mississippi State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
33.52
Attendance Score: 4.52
APR Score: 5
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 17
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 2.50
Program Analysis ... MSU was in the 1998
SEC Championship, losing to eventual national
champion Tennessee. It had an even better 2000
season going 10-2 with a trip to the Peach Bowl, but
the SEC got a whole bunch better, MSU got a whole
bunch worse, and the program has had problems
keeping up the pace from 2001 and on. Sylvester
Croom put together a nice 2007 season, going 8-5
with a Liberty Bowl win over UCF, but the Bulldgs
haven't played much offense over the last few years
and scored a mere 183 points last season. Florida
offensive coordinator Dan Mullen takes over with the
goal to create an attack that can keep up with the
rest of the conference. After winning a quarter of
its conference games over the last five years, MSU
will take as many SEC wins as it can get. Mullen
should bring them, bit it might take a little while.
97.
Marshall
Total Five-Year Program Score:
33.54
Attendance Score: 2.67
APR Score: 6
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.87
Program Analysis ... Marshall was 19th in
the 2003 CFN Three-Year Program Analysis after years
of Byron Leftwich leading a high-powered MAC
superpower. Mark Snyder wasn't able to rekindle the
momentum after Bob Pruett left (and with the program
starting to falter). The move to Conference USA
hasn't been a success so far, winning fewer than
half the league games, and there have only been 19
FBS wins in the last five years after winning 30
games from 2001 to 2003. The offense has been the
biggest problem, scoring just 246 points last season
and rarely being consistent, while the defense
hasn't been anything special. Snyder will be given
another year to turn things around.
96.
Middle Tennessee
Total Five-Year Program Score:
34.03
Attendance Score: 1.72
APR Score: 6
Draft: 1
FBS Wins: 24
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.56
Program Analysis ... Middle Tennessee was
supposed to be the star of the Sun Belt when the
league was formed, but it has managed to lose that
one big game every time it needed to come through.
There have been a slew of nice wins over the years,
including last seasons shocker over Maryland, and
there have been a lot of near-misses, but it has all
added up to a mediocre overall record and one bowl
game in the last five years. The conference wins
have to start coming more regularly for a team this
strong, winning 57% isn't good enough, while there
need to be more wins over the top Sun Belt teams.
95.
Toledo
Total Five-Year Program Score:
34.79
Attendance Score: 2.04
APR Score: 2
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 23
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 12
Conf. Score: 5.25
Program Analysis ... That sound you hear is
Toledo plummeting down the rankings in a stunning
freefall. In past CFN Program Rankings, Toledo was
25th in 2003, 35th in 2004, 29th in 2005, 36th in
2006. What happened? The team stopped winning. The
Rockets went 3-9 last year and has won just 11 FBS
games after 9-3 in 2005 with a 45-13 win over UTEP
in the GMAC Bowl. The APR score stinks, and there
haven't been enough Quality wins, but mostly, the
Rockets have to start winning the games they're
supposed to. There's only one Bad Loss on the books,
giving Eastern Michigan its only win of 2006, but
there are many MAC victories there for the taking.
New head man Tim Beckman should quickly turn things
back around.
94.
Iowa
State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
35.38
Attendance Score: 4.63
APR Score: 5
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 3.75
Program Analysis ... Gene Chizik did
absolutely nothing with the program, after taking
over from Dan McCarney, but he was rewarded by
getting the plum Auburn job. Paul Rhoads gets the
job of trying to clean up the mess from a team that
won just four FBS games over the last two years and
has just 19 FBS wins over the last five seasons.
Only winning 38% of Big 12 games, despite playing in
the lighter Big 12 North, screws up the ranking, and
the overall score is likely to be worse before it
gets better with the back-to-back 7-5 2004 and 2005
seasons out of the formula over the next two years.
93.
Ohio
Total Five-Year Program Score:
35.65
Attendance Score: 1.65
APR Score: 7
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 23
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 15
Conf. Score: 4.75
Program Analysis ... Ohio played for the
2006 MAC Championship and followed it up with a nice
6-6 season, but it hasn't been easy to maintain a
high level of play. Last year's underachieving 4-8
season hurt the overall ranking, while the lack of
Quality Wins, especially against MAC teams, have
kept the team out of the MAC title hunt in four of
the last five seasons. On the positive side, Ohio
beats most of the teams it's supposed to with 15 Bad
Wins and just the one Bad Loss gaffe at home in 2007
to Kent State.
92.
Indiana
Total Five-Year Program Score:
36.15
Attendance Score: 3.40
APR Score: 8
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 18
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 2.25
Program Analysis ... The late Terry
Hoeppner had a goal and a dream of making Indiana a
consistently strong program, and while his team came
up with a great 7-6 2007 season following his death,
it clunked last year with a bad 3-9 campaign. The
Hoosier players do well in the classroom, but the
paltry attendance, when compared to other Big Ten
programs, and the mere 23% winning clip in
conference play keeps the program among the nation's
most mediocre. There have been some Quality Wins,
but the Bad Losses to Southern Illinois (2006) and
at Kentucky and Illinois in 2004 bring things down.
With the 3-8 2004 season, along with two of the Bad
Losses, gone in next year's formula, IU should jump
up into the 80s and could flirt with the 70s if it
has a good season.
91.
Florida
Atlantic
Total Five-Year Program Score:
36.69
Attendance Score: 1.27
APR Score: 3
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 24
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 15
Conf. Score: 5.93
Program Analysis ... Howard Schnellenberger
built his program from scratch and has made it a Sun
Belt powerhouse with an athletic team that wins
almost all the games against lousy teams and has
come through with enough big wins to get to two
straight bowl games. The attendance is mediocre and
APR could stand to be better, but FAU is able to
make up for the problems with win. The draft score
will go up in a hurry with a few NFL-caliber
players, like QB Rusty Smith, about to go off to the
next level. Expect the ranking to get worse before
it gets better when the 9-3 2004 season is off the
books. The Owls should be in the 80s in the 2011
rankings when the 2-9 2005 season doesn't count.
90.
Louisiana Tech
Total Five-Year Program Score:
36.95
Attendance Score: 1.70
APR Score: 5
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 26
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 17
Conf. Score: 5.25
Program Analysis ... Derek Dooley had work
to do after Louisiana Tech's 2-10 season, and now
the needle is pointed up after the foundation was
set with an 8-5 season finished off by an
Independence Bowl win over Northern Illinois. Now,
the Bulldogs should be in the thick of the WAC title
hunt and a legitimate threat to Boise State with
explosion on offense and experience on D. The 17 Bad
Wins shows how the team is able to get by the lousy
teams, but there are only three Quality Wins on the
board. After hanging around the 70s in the previous
CFN program rankings, Tech should be back there
soon.
89.
Illinois
Total Five-Year Program Score:
37.38
Attendance Score: 5.13
APR Score: 4
Draft: 7
FBS Wins: 17
Quality Wins: 7
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 3
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 2.75
Program Analysis ... It goes to show just
how bad the team has been that it's ranked this low
even with a 9-4 Rose Bowl campaign in 2007. The
Illini were awful from 2003 to 2006 with a mere five
FBS wins over the four-year span, and they weren't
great last year with a 5-7 clunker. The APR score,
for a place that prides itself on its academic
reputation, is awful, while the attendance shows
that it's still a basketball school that needs the
football program to produce to gets butts in the
seats. This should be as low as the Illini go for
the next several years with an improved Draft score
and more wins certainly to come. Those bad seasons
from 2004 to 2006 will quickly go flying off the
board and the ranking will start to shoot up.
88.
Washington State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
37.49
Attendance Score: 3.20
APR Score: 3
Draft: 8
FBS Wins: 20
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 2.79
Program Analysis ... Wazzu was 14th in the
2004 Program Analysis and was still up high at 23 in
2005. Unfortunately, this is about as high as the
program will be over the next few years with bad
season after bad season starting to add up. Winning
just 28% of the Pac 10 games is a problem, the low
APR score hurts, and the lack of wins will really
start to hurt if there isn't a winning season around
the corner. Going 2-11 with just one FBS win, like
the Cougars did last year, will drag a team down in
a hurry, and now it's up to Paul Wulff to show he
can be the one who could potentially restore the
past success. After giving up 570 points last year,
and scoring just 165, there's a long way to go.
87.
Wyoming
Total Five-Year Program Score:
37.52
Attendance Score: 1.93
APR Score: 6
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 24
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 3.33
Program Analysis ... Considering how
mediocre the program has been, and with Joe Glenn
getting fired, this seems a bit high. New head man
Dave Christensen has to try to pull off more
Mountain West wins from a program that's winning
just 33% of them, and while the fan base is vocal
and passionate, there aren't a lot of Cowboy fans as
evidenced by the Attendance score. The one big year
in recent history, the 7-5 Las Vegas Bowl campaign
of 2004, will fall out of the equation next year,
and the overall score should plummet. After scoring
just 152 points, there's nowhere to go but up
offensively.
T85.
Western Michigan
Total Five-Year Program Score:
38.21
Attendance Score: 1.83
APR Score: 4
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 26
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 5.13
Program Analysis ... The ranking should go
through the roof next year. WMU is one of the
favorites for the MAC title, thanks to QB Tim Hiller
and the high-octane offense, and the one aberration
of a season, the 1-10 2004 campaign, will be off the
books in next year's formula. The Broncos were
0-for-the-FBS in 2004, but bounced back with three
winning seasons in four highlighted by a nine
victory season with a win over Illinois. The Broncos
also stunned Iowa two years ago, screwing up the
Hawkeye season, and now the team should give
everyone on its schedule a run. The wins have to
start coming to make up for the mediocre
off-the-field scores with an APR score that could be
better and the lack of a big fan base.
T85. Akron
Total Five-Year Program Score:
38.21
Attendance Score: 1.46
APR Score: 3
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 27
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 15
Conf. Score: 5.00
Program Analysis ... The 2005 season has
carried Akron out of the dregs. The Zips won the MAC
championship and came up with all three of its
Quality Wins. The other four years weren't any big
deal with three losing campaigns and a 6-5 2004
season. The new stadium should help the attendance
score, while the APR score could stand to be much
better. Getting out of mediocrity could be tough,
even with a decent offense returning, but that
doesn't mean Akron won't be in the MAC title hunt
playing in the MAC East.
84.
Syracuse
Total Five-Year Program Score:
38.47
Attendance Score: 3.66
APR Score: 8
Draft: 9
FBS Wins: 15
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 5
Conf. Score: 2.06
Program Analysis ... How?! Syracuse only
came up with 15 FBS wins over the last five years,
the fewest number among the top 98 teams. The APR
score is a huge help; the Orange can't play, but
they can study. The attendance has slipped big-time,
the basketball team gets more than 37,000 for the
big games, and the Draft score is relatively high.
Unfortunately for SU, this is as high as the program
will be for a while with the 6-6 2004 season, and
four of the five Quality Wins, coming off the board
next year. Can Greg Paulus be the difference maker
at quarterback to change the program around? That's
the hope for one year, but new head man Doug Maronne
has to work wonders to make the team a factor in the
Big East.
83.
Colorado State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
38.57
Attendance Score: 2.47
APR Score: 6
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 20
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 3.85
Program Analysis ... The once-proud program
had turned mediocre at the end of the Sonny Lubick
era. Steve Fairchild came in and said he was going
to run the ball, and he has done it with good
results. CSU got back to a bowl game last year,
running all over Fresno State for a 40-35
Humanitarian Bowl victory, and now the team appears
to be on the verge of knocking on the door to get
into the Mountain West club occupied by TCU, BYU,
and Utah. The Rams should move up the rankings next
year once the 4-7 2004 season is out of the
equation.
82.
Arkansas State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
38.59
Attendance Score: 1.79
APR Score: 6
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 23
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 5.29
Program Analysis ... Just on the outside of
the Sun Belt elite, ASU has been solid over the last
four years, with three 6-6 seasons and a 5-7 2007
campaign. Now it needs to start being better against
the big boys. The ranking should jump up in a big
way next year with a 3-8 2004 season, along with a
bad loss to Idaho, going away. The APR score isn't
bad, and the total wins are solid, but the Sun Belt
winning percentage should be better. With QB Corey
Leonard and RB Reggie Arnold in the backfield,
there's a shot at big things this year.
81.
Bowling Green
Total Five-Year Program Score:
39.12
Attendance Score: 1.62
APR Score: 3
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 31
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 5.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 6.00
Program Analysis ... Bowling Green has won
60% of its MAC games over the last five years and
won 31 FBS games, the most of any team ranked
outside of the top 70, but that wasn't enough for
Gregg Brandon to save his job. And why? The bad
losses. The Falcons were good enough to upset Pitt
last season, but they lost at home to Eastern
Michigan. They were strong enough to get to the GMAC
Bowl two years ago, but they were smoked 63-7 by
Tulsa in one of the most embarrassing bowl
performances in years. It's that inconsistency that
screwed up the program, and now it'll be up to Dave
Clawson to provide some stability. He has a good
offense, led by QB Tyler Sheehan, to help make it
happen.