CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
No. 61 to 80
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being
asked to turn things around right away. Five years
allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting
cycle, get comfortable in the position, and
implement everything he'd like to do. With that in
mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program
Analysis (it used to be three years, but we
supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors
like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go
to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge
selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays
the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success
ends up being all that matters, so that's where the
focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might
not add up because we have listed the total number
of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad
Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be
scored differently (two home losses against 3-9
teams would be scored as a 3).
Quick
Explanation of Scores
- Attendance:
Home attendance average over the last five years divided by
10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance
Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th
percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score:
28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage
times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in
a bowl over teams that finished
with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win
over a two-loss team
on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with
three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract
each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5
for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with
two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg.
Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64
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Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and
Categories
-
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80.
Minnesota
Total Five-Year Program Score:
39.74
Attendance Score: 4.99
APR Score: 3
Draft: 7
FBS Wins: 25
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 3.25
Program Analysis ... The 1-11 disaster of
2006 didn't help the ranking, and falling off the
map over the second half of last season wasn't a
plus, but overall, considering the team has only won
33% of its Big Ten games over the last five years,
this isn't an awful ranking. The APR score is awful,
but the Attendance score should go up with the
bright, shiny new stadium, but there are too many
Bad Losses, like the home gaffe to North Dakota
State in 2007, and not enough Quality Wins. This
year's team should be just good enough to get to a
bowl game, but it's not likely to do much to improve
the ranking for next year.
79.
Miami University
Total Five-Year Program Score:
40.44
Attendance Score: 1.56
APR Score: 8
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 23
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.13
Program Analysis ... MU went from playing
in the 2007 MAC Championship to going 2-10 in 2008,
and that meant the end of the Shane Montgomery era.
Mike Haywood comes in and he needs to jump-start an
offense that has struggled with its consistency and
its punch over the last few seasons. It wasn't just
2008, MU also stunk it up in 2006 going 2-10 to
bring down the ranking after coming in 20th in 2006.
The fantastic APR score helps the cause, but Haywood
needs to get more victories on a regular basis,
especially against the better MAC teams, to make MU
a player again like it was not all that long ago.
78. Ole
Miss
Total Five-Year Program Score:
41.13
Attendance Score: 5.38
APR Score: 2
Draft: 10
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 2.5
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 2.75
Program Analysis ... Ole Miss has won just
28% of its SEC battles over the last five years, but
former head man Ed Orgeron stocked the shelves.
Houston Nutt has reaped the rewards with plenty of
NFL-caliber players, evidenced by one of the highest
draft scores among the lower ranked teams. The
talent hasn't done much in the classroom, with a low
APR score, but it's all about wins in the SEC and
they should start rolling in after so much
mediocrity. It's going to take a few years to erase
all the immediate post-Eli Manning problems, but a
big 2009 will be a good way to continue the momentum
started last year.
77.
Vanderbilt
Total Five-Year Program Score:
41.45
Attendance Score: 3.45
APR Score: 9
Draft: 7
FBS Wins: 20
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 2.75
Program Analysis ... The smart guys are
starting to produce on the field as well as in the
classroom. As expected, the APR is outstanding, and
now the wins are starting to follow. Winning 28% of
the SEC games keeps the ranking low, and the
Attendance score is always going to be a problem,
but after a breakthrough bowl season, and with the
talent level improving enough to jack up the Draft
score, there's a chance the program isn't likely to
hit the skids again soon. Vandy was in the 100s not
all that long ago, ranking 107th in 2005, and while
it's not going to win the SEC East, it'll remain
competitive.
76.
Memphis
Total Five-Year Program Score:
41.87
Attendance Score: 3.37
APR Score: 7
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 25
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 12
Conf. Score: 5.25
Program Analysis ... Memphis hasn't been a
major player in the Conference USA race over the
last few years, but it has carved out a niche as a
very nice mid-level program with four bowl
appearances in the last five seasons. The APR score
(considering the problems with the basketball team)
is nice and high, while the FBS win total is nice
and high. The problem in the rankings is one 2-10
clunker in 2006 that had just one FBS win and had
one of the team's four Bad Losses. Tommy West and
his program might not challenge for the title this
year, but it should get back to the post-season and
remain around the seven-win mark.
75. Rice
Total Five-Year Program Score:
42.48
Attendance Score: 1.48
APR Score: 10
Draft: 2
FBS Wins: 24
Quality Wins: 7
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4.5
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.75
Program Analysis ... There's an ugly 3-9
2007 season on the books, and winning a game in 2005
and three games in 2004 didn't help the score, but a
ten-win 2008 campaign changed the ranking around in
a big hurry. The perfect APR score made up for the
lousy attendance, the lowest of anyone in the top
84, and the wins helped offset the bad ones. The
success of last year isn't likely to continue,
there's too much personnel turnover, but the team
needs to beat the mediocre teams on the schedule and
the Conference USA wins have to keep on flowing in
to stay this high.
74. UCF
Total Five-Year Program Score:
43.77
Attendance Score: 3.27
APR Score: 8
Draft: 6
FBS Wins: 24
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.00
Program Analysis ... Kevin Smith couldn't
have been the entire offense, could he? As it turned
out, he was the attack as UCF's O went into the tank
last season scoring just 199 points with just three
FBS wins. It's amazing the program is this high in
the rankings considering there are two 4-8 seasons
and the 0-11 disaster from 2004 in the equation, but
a high APR and 24 wins, gathered mostly in the 2005
and 2007 runs to the MAC title game, saved the
overall score. UCF should be much higher next year
when 2004 won't count and with an expected boost in
the attendance.
73.
Kansas State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
44.42
Attendance Score: 4.67
APR Score: 6
Draft: 8
FBS Wins: 22
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 3.25
Program Analysis ... It's Bill Snyder to
the rescue ... sort of. Things weren't all that bad
under Ron Prince, but his teams kept dying as the
seasons went on. While Snyder is a legend and has
earned the right to do whatever he wants with the
KSU program, the freefall from powerhouse status
started at the end of his first run as head coach.
KSU was 11th in the 2003, and then the team crashed
with a 4-7 2004 and there hasn't been much success
since. Winning just 33% of Big 12 games is the
biggest problem, and it's not like the Wildcats are
likely to challenge for the Big 12 North this year.
The key will be to simply win more games. For a team
that plays as soft a schedule as KSU does, at least
in non-conference play, there has to be more than 22
wins over a five-year span.
72.
Troy
Total Five-Year Program Score:
44.70
Attendance Score: 2.02
APR Score: 6
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 29
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 16
Conf. Score: 7.43
Program Analysis ... The Sun Belt's best
program, Troy's 74% clip in Sun Belt play is the
best by far of the bottom 88 teams leading the way
to three bowls in five seasons. Larry Blakeney has
created a nice program built on great defenses and
opportunistic offenses that don't make major
mistakes. There aren't a lot of Quality Wins, that's
a function of playing in the Sun Belt, with a mere
four in the last five seasons, the fewest of anyone
in the top 79, but the team doesn't lose to a lot of
mediocre teams. A Bad Loss to Arkansas State in 2004
won't count in next year's ranking.
71.
UTEP
Total Five-Year Program Score:
45.11
Attendance Score: 4.11
APR Score: 3
Draft: 7
FBS Wins: 27
Quality Wins: 7
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 5.00
Program Analysis ... For a program that was
ranked 115th in 2004 and 106th in 2005, this is
high, but it's not likely to last. This solid
ranking is a bit of a shocker considering UTEP has
been so mediocre over the last three seasons, but
8-4 seasons in 2004 and 2005, with an appearance in
the 2005 GMAC Bowl (and an ugly 45-13 loss to
Toledo) to show for it. The APR stinks and the Bad
Loss score is a killer, hurt mostly by a home gaffe
against New Mexico State last season, but winning
half of the Conference USA games has helped and the
Attendance and Draft scores aren't that awful.
70.
Nevada
Total Five-Year Program Score:
45.95
Attendance Score: 1.70
APR Score: 6
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 32
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 19
Conf. Score: 6.00
Program Analysis ... The Attendance score
is the worst among the top 74 and there haven't been
many players drafted, but winning 32 games, the most
in the bottom 50, with a 60% run in WAC play, has
helped the overall score. The ranking should only go
up from here with QB Colin Kaepernick leading a
loaded team that should be in the hunt for the WAC
title. Next year, the overall score will also be
without the four-FBS win 2004 season that had two
Bad Losses to UNLV and SMU.
69.
Northern Illinois
Total Five-Year Program Score:
46.77
Attendance Score: 2.12
APR Score: 7
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 27
Quality Wins: 8
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 17
Conf. Score: 6.15
Program Analysis ... A MAC power that
hasn't been able to get over the hump and win a
title, the Huskies have gotten through the
transition period from Joe Novak to Jerry Kill and
is back to its high status. Decimated by injuries,
NIU suffered through an ugly 2-10 2007 season, but
quickly bounced back with a 6-7 campaign with a trip
to the Independence Bowl. To stay this high, NIU
needs to be in for a big season with a 9-3 2004
season, with three of the eight Quality Wins, not
counting next year. On the plus side, the conference
winning % should go up as the team continues to
improve.
68.
Stanford
Total Five-Year Program Score:
46.90
Attendance Score: 3.90
APR Score: 10
Draft: 13
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 3
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 5
Conf. Score: 3.26
Program Analysis ... The APR score is
always going to prevent the Cardinal from slipping
too far down, but the other wins have to start
coming to ever have a prayer of getting into the
50s. Beating USC in 2007 was a big plus to stay out
of the 70s, and the Draft score is impressively
high, but there are only 19 FBS wins, the lowest of
anyone in the top 77, and there are too many bad
losses. The 1-11 2006 season will be an anchor in
the rankings for the next few years, while the 2005
home loss to Cal-Davis and the 2007 loss to Notre
Dame will also be part of the overall score. Jim
Harbaugh is demanding more success, and while
Stanford will be even more competitive, it'll need a
few breaks to get back to a bowl.
67.
Arizona
Total Five-Year Program Score:
48.24
Attendance Score: 5.28
APR Score: 3
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 21
Quality Wins: 8
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 10
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 3.95
Program Analysis ... Mike Stoops finally,
finally got his Wildcats to a bowl game,
with a win over BYU in last year's Las Vegas Bowl,
but it's going to take a lot more wins, especially
in Pac 10 play, to move up the rankings and it's
going to take more time in the classroom to get the
APR score up. Arizona has a few nice wins over the
last five years, including a big 52-14 Elite Win
over UCLA in 2005, but that was erased the next week
by a Bad Loss to Washington. There have been a lot
of problems with the top teams, with ten Elite
Losses, and there are a mere eight Quality Wins. In
a little bit of a rebuilding/reloading mode, it
might be hard to make too big a jump next year, but
the program is in better shape than a few years ago
when it was ranked 100th in 2006.
66. Air
Force
Total Five-Year Program Score:
48.64
Attendance Score: 3.77
APR Score: 10
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 27
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 5.13
Program Analysis ... Just when it seemed
like Air Force has gotten past its prime and was
outdated, Troy Calhoun came in and breathed new life
into the program. With 17 wins and two bowl
appearances in the past two seasons, Air Force is
relevant again. There will never be anyone drafted,
but it's offset by the great APR. Winning more than
half of the Mountain West games is a big plus, and
the improvement over the last two years has saved
the program from sinking into the 70s and lower.
With a 5-6 2004 season to be replaced in the
equation next year, the ranking should go up in a
big way.
65.
Kentucky
Total Five-Year Program Score:
49.16
Attendance Score: 6.41
APR Score: 7
Draft: 6
FBS Wins: 23
Quality Wins: 8
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 3.00
Program Analysis ... Just when it seemed
like UK was mired into total mediocrity, and with
many wondering why and how Rich Brooks was keeping
his job, everything changed around with a stunning
2006 that kicked off a run of three straight winning
season. The Wildcats have only won 30% of their
conference games over the last five years, but after
winning just three league battles in 2004 and 2005,
the overall record is quickly changing. The Draft
Score is fine, but it seems a bit low, but the
Attendance and APR scores are solid. The Elite Win
came over the 2007 LSU team that won the national
title.
64.
Ball State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
49.40
Attendance Score: 1.49
APR Score: 6
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 27
Quality Wins: 10
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 6.15
Program Analysis ... After going 2-9 in
2004 and 4-7 in 2005, the Cardinals started to
improve in 2006 going 5-7 by winning three of the
final four games, and then the team took off with
two good years with QB Nate Davis at the helm
highlighted by a tremendous 2008 season that started
out 12-0 and ended with a big, fat clunk losing to
Buffalo in a MAC Championship stunner and to Tulsa
45-13 in the GMAC Bowl. Now there's a new era
starting with Davis off to the NFL and head coach
Brady Hoke leaving for San Diego State. New head man
Stan Parrish will try to keep the momentum going,
but it's going to be hard to move up the rankings to
far with the lowest Attendance score of anyone in
the top 74, but if 2009 is a winning season, the
Cardinals should rise up and flirt with the 50s.
63. New
Mexico
Total Five-Year Program Score:
50.90
Attendance Score: 3.27
APR Score: 5
Draft: 8
FBS Wins: 31
Quality Wins: 7
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.13
Program Analysis ... Consistently average,
New Mexico was fine under Rocky Long, but it peaked
in 2007 with a 9-4 season with a 23-0 New Mexico
Bowl win over Nevada. After going 4-8 last season,
it was time for some new blood and a change of pace
with Mike Locksley coming in to try to take the
program to another level. There haven't been enough
big wins and there are too many Bad Losses on the
books, most notably a 17-6 loss to Portland State at
home to start the 2006 season. There have been a lot
of FBS wins, but the seven Quality Wins are way low.
62.
Purdue
Total Five-Year Program Score:
51.46
Attendance Score: 5.96
APR Score: 3
Draft: 13
FBS Wins: 29
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 4.25
Program Analysis ... The knock on Purdue
under former head coach Joe Tiller was that the
program was fine against the average teams, but it
never beat anyone with a pulse. This ranking shows
that with a shockingly low five Quality Wins, Purdue
just didn't do enough to be a factor when push game
to shove. On the flip side, the Boilermakers didn't
have too many problems with the bad teams, there
weren't any Bad Losses, but winning 43% of Big Ten
games, combined with a horrendous APR, keeps the
program among the average.
61.
Central Michigan
Total Five-Year Program Score:
51.80
Attendance Score: 1.88
APR Score: 4
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 34
Quality Wins: 9
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 6.92
Program Analysis ... Dan LeFevour. Central
Michigan wasn't even a thought on the MAC radar, and
then came the 2006 season opener against Boston
College. Starter Brian Brunner went down with a
concussion, LeFevour stepped in, and the Chippewas
have won 26 games and two MAC titles with three bowl
appearances in the last three seasons. CMU's 34 FBS
wins are the most of anyone outside of the top 52
teams, but the Attendance score is the lowest of
anyone in the top 63. The APR doesn't help, and the
4.5 Bad Loss score is awful, but winning 70% of MAC
games has offset the problems. The program will be
well into the 50s next year after losing the 4-7
2004 season with two Bad Losses.