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CFN Five-Year Program Rankings - 41 to 60
NC State QB Russell Wilson
NC State QB Russell Wilson
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 27, 2009


CFN's 2009 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis ... Teams 41 through 60

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

No. 41 to 60
 

Program Rankings

- CFN Scoring System
- 2009 CFN Preview
- No. 1 USC
- No. 2 Texas
- No. 3 Oklahoma
- No. 4 Ohio State
- No. 5 Florida
- No. 6 Georgia
- No. 7 LSU
- No. 8 Virginia Tech
- No. 9 Auburn
- No. 10 Michigan
- 11 to 20
- 21 to 40
- 41 to 60
- 61 to 80
- 81 to 100
- 101 to 120
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program Analysis (it used to be three years, but we supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we have listed the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64

- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

- CLICK HERE for FREE Expert Football Selections from ATS Consultants
 
60. Colorado
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 52.14
Attendance Score: 4.89
APR Score: 4
Draft: 9
FBS Wins: 27
Quality Wins: 10
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 5
Conf. Score: 3.75

Program Analysis ... It's not working. Colorado was hovering just outside of the top 20 in the 2003 and 2004 rankings, and then came runs to the 2004 and 2005 Big 12 Championship games and the program was riding high ... for about ten minutes. The ugly end to the 2005 season, with the lowlight coming in a 70-3 loss to Texas in the Big 12 title game and with a slew of off-the-field problems, Gary Barnett was canned and Dan Hawkins, seemingly the perfect fit, came in and promptly took the team into the tank with a 2-10 season starting out with a 19-10 loss to Montana State. It's not that Colorado has been bad under Hawkins, but it hasn't done anything of note outside of 27-24 win over Oklahoma in 2007. The Draft score, a big number back in the team's heyday, has dipped, and the APR is lousy. But considering the Buffs have won just 38% of their Big 12 games, this isn't an awful ranking.
 
59. East Carolina
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 52.69
Attendance Score: 3.69
APR Score: 4
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 31
Quality Wins: 8
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 3
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 5.75

Program Analysis ... ECU shouldn't get comfortable in this spot. Possibly the best team in Conference USA this season, the defending league champions should be in for a big season that'll replace the 2-9 disaster of 2004. The APR and Attendance scores are mediocre and there haven't been a slew of players drafted, but there have been plenty of wins, highlighted by last year's victories over Virginia Tech and West Virginia before picking off Tulsa for the Conference USA championship. Head coach Skip Holtz is still around, but he'll soon be courted heavily by the big boy programs, and he'll continue to work wonders and will bring more and more success.
 
58. Houston 


Total Five-Year Program Score: 52.76
Attendance Score: 2.01
APR Score: 6
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 32
Quality Wins: 9
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 16
Conf. Score: 6.50

Program Analysis ... There have been few teams more fun to watch over the last few years. The Cougars have been explosive, led by QB Kevin Kolb and replaced by Case Keenum, while the success has continued with Kevin Sumlin at the helm replacing now-Baylor head man Art Briles. Ranking 103rd in 2003, Houston should complete a tremendous rise up as its 3-8 2004 season, along with a Bad Loss to Rice, will be replaced what should be a successful 2009 campaign. There haven't been a lot of great wins outside of the 2006 Conference USA championship over Southern Miss, and the Draft Score appears a bit low, but this is a strong program that's getting better and better.
 
57. Connecticut


Total Five-Year Program Score: 52.92
Attendance Score: 3.92
APR Score: 7
Draft: 9
FBS Wins: 29
Quality Wins: 6
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 15
Conf. Score: 5.00

Program Analysis ... Randy Edsall has carved out a nice program from near-scratch with regular bowl appearances and lots of wins. Now there need to be more big victories. The six Quality Wins over the last five years are the lowest among the top 61 teams, while there aren't any hang-the-hat-on victories that shook up the world. Now it's time to become a regular player in the Big East race, and while there have been chances to take the next step and be a champion, the team hasn't met them. With a bit more offense, UConn could be in a BCS game soon.
 
56. NC State
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 53.07
Attendance Score: 5.57
APR Score: 5
Draft: 16
FBS Wins: 21
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 6
Conf. Score: 3.75

Program Analysis ... Always slightly above-average, NC State needed to be torn down a bit to be built back up. Everything appears to be pointed in the right direction under Tom O'Brien with QB Russell Wilson a great young player to build around and with enough talent to challenge anyone in the ACC. The 38% winning clip in ACC play hurts the rankings, and the 21 FBS wins are low, but this is about as low as the program will get. It got as high as 31 in 2004, and while it's not going to get too much higher for a few years, the 3-9 2006 will hang around the formula for a while.
 
55. Northwestern
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 53.84
Attendance Score: 2.84
APR Score: 9
Draft: 6
FBS Wins: 30
Quality Wins: 9
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.00

Program Analysis ... Pat Fitzgerald has picked up the pieces from the tragedy of the Randy Walker death to make the program his. It took a little while, and there were some growing pains, but the football team appears to be close to what Fitzgerald's original vision was, at least defensively. The APR score is always going to be great, and the Attendance score will always be lousy, but the wins are starting to come. The key is to always beat the awful teams. Northwestern might not be able to always stay with the elite teams, but it can't afford the Bad Losses like the gaffe at Indiana last year or the home loss to New Hampshire two years ago.
 
54. North Carolina
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 54.86
Attendance Score: 5.36
APR Score: 7
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 22
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 4.25

Program Analysis ... It's impressive that the ranking is this high with a 3-9 2006 season and a 4-8 2007 weighing things down. The fortunes should quickly change as Butch Davis has built up the program into an ACC title contender with more draftable players, more butts in the seats, and with a better conference winning percentage sure to come. The APR score is solid and there aren't any really bad losses, but it's going to take a few more big years to overcome the problems of the recent past.
 
53. South Florida
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 55.20
Attendance Score: 3.98
APR Score: 2
Draft: 4
FBS Wins: 31
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 2.5
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 4.72

Program Analysis ... Consistency. That's the problem. With plenty of great athletes and the mindset that it can beat anyone in America, Jim Leavitt's team is as dangerous as they come, especially at home. There's the huge 2007 win over West Virginia a few weeks after pulling off a stunner at Auburn, there was the 2006 win at West Virginia, and there was a huge victory over a loaded Louisville team in 2005. But there was also a loss at home to Army in 2004 to go along with just enough misfires in key games to be out of the Big East title hunt. Over the past few years there haven't been any major gaffes, but if the team can play up to its speed and athleticism every week, it should be an even bigger player in the race. In the rankings, the APR score is abysmal, but the Draft score is about to get a boost.
 
52. Southern Miss
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 56.35
Attendance Score: 2.85
APR Score: 6
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 7
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 6.25

Program Analysis ... Jeff Bower had created a Conference USA powerhouse that won plenty of games, was a regular in the league title chase, and went to bowl games almost every year. Being consistently above-average wasn't enough, and in came Larry Fedora to try to give the program a shot in the arm. After a rough start, his team reeled off five straight wins to close out the 2009 season and it all but saved the overall ranking from tumbling. Winning 63% of league games offsets the lousy Attendance score, but the wins will have to keep on coming to start to make more of a move up. The Bad Loss came at home against Rice in 2007.
  
51. Oklahoma State
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 57.67
Attendance Score: 4.42
APR Score: 6
Draft: 7
FBS Wins: 30
Quality Wins: 10
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.25

Program Analysis ... This low ranking isn't going to last too much longer. The 4-7 2005 season drags down the overall score, but last year was a big boost and an expected huge 2009 should help change the numbers in a big hurry. Winning half of the Big 12 games over the last five years keeps OSU in the 50s, but the wins are starting to flow. Now the huge South wins have to start coming after going 2-13 against Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech (with the two wins coming against the Red Raiders).
 
50. Navy
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 58.16
Attendance Score: 3.34
APR Score: 10
Draft: 0
FBS Wins: 40
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 24
Conf. Score: 6.83*

* Since Navy doesn't play in a conference, the Conference Score is the winning percentage over the last five years.

Program Analysis ... A stunningly consistent winner, with Ken Niumatalolo keeping the success rolling after Paul Johnson left for Georgia Tech, Navy has been one of the greatest success stories in recent college football history. What isn't quite understood by most fans is just how average the talent level is compared to the rest of the FBS. Navy has a mere handful of D-I talents, but it still wins and wins and wins. The APR score is always strong and the 40 FBS wins are the most of anyone ranked outside of the top 32, but the Draft score will always be a zero and there aren't a lot of Quality Wins. Navy doesn't have a killer schedule, but it beats the teams it has to play.
 
49. Arkansas
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 60.88
Attendance Score: 6.88
APR Score: 3
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 28
Quality Wins: 8
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 14
Bad Wins: 12
Conf. Score: 4.50

Program Analysis ... As high as 18th in the 2004 rankings, losing seasons in 2004 and 2005 quickly dropped the Hogs and there wasn't a big rebound even with a breakthrough 2006 campaign. Houston Nutt and Arkansas parted ways, but it might have been a step back to take a huge leap forward. Bobby Petrino, issues and all, is a fantastic college coach who now has the pieces in place to make the program a consistent winner. Getting the players to class would help the APR score and the overall ranking, and there has to be more Quality Wins, with a mere eight over the last five years, but there are epic victories over LSU in 2007 and at Auburn in 2006 to show what the program has been able to do from time to time.
 
48. Fresno State
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 61.34
Attendance Score: 3.84
APR Score: 7
Draft: 12
FBS Wins: 34
Quality Wins: 7
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 18
Conf. Score: 6.25

Program Analysis ... For all the bluster and all the big performances, no matter how the results turned out, against the big name teams (like the great loss to USC 2005), there haven't been enough WAC wins and there's a Boise State anchor around the program's neck. Winning 63% of conference games is nice, but it's not enough to a Fresno State to just be hanging around the mediocre, throwaway bowl games. This is a program that Pat Hill wanted to become a superpower, and it hasn't happened.  He has had players, the Draft score is solid, and there have been plenty of good wins, but there haven't been enough victories to be Boise State.
 
47. Pitt
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 61.70
Attendance Score: 4.16
APR Score: 6
Draft: 13
FBS Wins: 29
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 5.29

Program Analysis ... The Panthers have been fine, but they haven't taken off like they should've under Dave Wannstedt. Walt Harris took Pitt to a BCS game in 2004, but the program has underwhelmed and underachieved over the past four seasons. There are plenty of Quality Wins, Pitt has been fine against most mid-range teams, but it hasn't come up with the one or two big wins needed to be special. And then there's the yearly clunker. There was a shocker to Bowling Green last year, the 48-45 loss to Navy two years ago, and losses to Michigan State and UConn teams that went 4-8 in 2006. Basically, the program hasn't been able to put it all together.
 
46. Michigan State
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 63.05
Attendance Score: 7.30
APR Score: 4
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 30
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.00

Program Analysis ... After a rough run under John L. Smith, Mark Dantonio stepped up and has the Spartans hitting their stride with a team good enough to challenge for the Big Ten title (if they get several big breaks). The Attendance score is always going to be good, but the APR is low and winning 40% of Big Ten games keeps the team this low. But all of that is changing. The Bad Loss came to Illinois at home in 2006, while the Elite Win came at Notre Dame in 2005.
  
45. Kansas
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 64.53
Attendance Score: 4.53
APR Score: 6
Draft: 5
FBS Wins: 33
Quality Wins: 14
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.25

Program Analysis ... After stinking it up for years, Kansas started to show some signs of life with a Fort Worth Bowl appearance in 2005. Passed over by the bowls in 2006, the Jayhawks roared in 2007 with a 12-1 season and a shot to play for the national title up until late November with a loss to Missouri. Can Mark Mangino keep the success going next year when QB Todd Reesing, the unsung star who has been the triggerman through the burst of success, is gone? The ranking should keep going up as long as there aren't any losing seasons in the near future, and there's enough talent coming in to keep KU among the best teams in the North for a while.
 
44. Hawaii
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 64.56
Attendance Score: 3.81
APR Score: 5
Draft: 10
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 10
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 19
Conf. Score: 7.00

Program Analysis ... Helped by one of the best home field advantages in college football (the trip, the girls, the beach ... it's Hawaii), the Warriors have always been great when it gets teams in its park. In WAC play, the high-octane offense has led the way to a 70% clip in WAC games, but there have been some clunkers like last year's 30-14 loss at Utah State (a Bad Loss) and a blowout loss to Rice in 2004. There are lot of Bad Wins, but that's part of the deal when playing in the WAC. Teams will always want to make the trip, it's like an extra bowl game, and Hawaii will always play them tough.
 
43. Tulsa
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 64.70
Attendance Score: 2.20
APR Score: 4
Draft: 3
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 13
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 18
Conf. Score: 6.75

Program Analysis ... Conference USA's premier program over the last four years should rocket up the rankings if it can come up with a good 2009. The 4-8 2004 season started out rough, losing six of the first seven games, but Tulsa has won 41 games ever since (although not all of them against FBS teams). The Attendance and APR scores are lousy, and only three players have been drafted, but the team keeps beating the bad ones and has been in three of the last four conference title games. Considering the program was ranked 110th in 2003, being this high shows how fast the success has come.
 
42. Rutgers
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 66.12
Attendance Score: 3.83
APR Score: 10
Draft: 10
FBS Wins: 34
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 5.29

Program Analysis ... As impressive as the turnaround has been under head coach Greg Schiano on the field, the perfect APR score could be more amazing as the football program has answered the critics inside the university that thought the school was selling out the academic side. The players have been coming, as evidenced by the good Draft score, and there have been a ton of wins over the last three years, but there's still room to rise up with the 4-7 2004 season going off the books next year. How much has the program improved? It was ranked 112th in 2003, 107th in 2004, and 101st in 2005.
 
41. Maryland
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 66.24
Attendance Score: 5.24
APR Score: 4
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 30
Quality Wins: 16
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.50

Program Analysis ... As high as 13th in the 2004 rankings, Maryland has become decidedly mediocre and has gotten a bit stale. There has been good talent coming to College Park, and there have been plenty of Quality Wins, but there haven't been enough ACC wins over the last five years losing more than half the conference games. The APR is also lousy. With three losing seasons in the last five years, the Terps have to come up with a few strong seasons to stop treading water. To start, there needs to be more consistency. Last year the Terps didn't show up in a loss to Middle Tennessee, and came out roaring in a win over Cal the following week. It beat Clemson, and lost at Virginia the week after 31-0.