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CFN Five-Year Program Rankings - 21 to 40
Notre Dame FS Harrison Smith
Notre Dame FS Harrison Smith
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 27, 2009


CFN's 2009 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis ... Teams 21 through 40

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CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

No. 21 to 40
 

Program Rankings

- CFN Scoring System
- 2009 CFN Preview
- No. 1 USC
- No. 2 Texas
- No. 3 Oklahoma
- No. 4 Ohio State
- No. 5 Florida
- No. 6 Georgia
- No. 7 LSU
- No. 8 Virginia Tech
- No. 9 Auburn
- No. 10 Michigan
- 11 to 20
- 21 to 40
- 41 to 60
- 61 to 80
- 81 to 100
- 101 to 120
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program Analysis (it used to be three years, but we supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we have listed the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64

- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

- CLICK HERE for FREE Expert Football Selections from ATS Consultants

40. Texas A&M
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 67.14
Attendance Score: 7.89
APR Score: 7
Draft: 12
FBS Wins: 29
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 4.75

Program Analysis ... Considering how bad A&M has been over the last several years, being ranked this high is a big of a shocker. The Attendance and APR scores help in a big way, and there have been just enough wins to get by, but there haven't been enough good wins as the once-proud program went into a freefall under Dennis Franchione and hasn't been able to pull up. Mike Sherman is trying to find something that works, but he needs more time. Over the last five years, A&M has lost more than half of its Big 12 games and hasn't beaten Oklahoma. The last bowl win was in 1995.

39. South Carolina
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 68.15
Attendance Score: 7.90
APR Score: 4
Draft: 15
FBS Wins: 31
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 4.75

Program Analysis ... The working definition of mediocre in SEC play, South Carolina has won few than half its conference games over the last five years and has gone a mere 31-28 against FBS teams. Going 2-8 over against Florida and Clemson has been a problem, but not being a factor in the SEC race year after year has been the biggest beef. Steve Spurrier was supposed to be the savior, just like Lou Holtz was, but his offenses can't stop throwing interceptions and his defenses have been too inconsistent. Considering South Carolina is supposed to be one of the SEC's top academic schools, an APR of 4 is embarrassing.
 
38. Wake Forest
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 68.63
Attendance Score: 3.13
APR Score: 9
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 34
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.25

Program Analysis ... There are no excuses for small, private schools like Duke, Stanford, and Baylor to not be more successful when there's Wake Forest having so much success over the last few years. The APR is always going to be high and the Attendance is always going to be on the low side, but the key is the Draft score. The 11 players selected are just a tip of the talent iceberg as the team really has been good enough to compete with and beat the ACC big boys. The ranking is only going to get better as the 4-7 2004 and 2005 seasons are replaced over the next few years, while the 11-3 ACC championship season of 2006 will hang around for a while.
 
37. UCLA
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 69.63
Attendance Score: 6.78
APR Score: 7
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 33
Quality Wins: 13
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 5.35

Program Analysis ... Ever since Ron Dayne ran amok in Wisconsin's win over UCLA in the 1999 Rose Bowl, the Bruins have been exceptionally average outside of an aberration of a 10-2 2005 season. Considering the fan base doesn't take mediocrity all that well, and the program's slide has coincided with that team on the other side of town growing into college football's greatest juggernaut, these have been lean times. The lack of stars, evidenced by the relatively low Draft score, has shown why UCLA has fallen so far behind USC, but there could be problems for at least one more year as Rick Neuheisel will need a while for his fantastic first recruiting class to mature.
 
36. Arizona State
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 69.68
Attendance Score: 6.10
APR Score: 6
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 9
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 5.58

Program Analysis ... A disappointment under Dirk Koetter, at least compared to expectations, the Sun Devils rocked out of gate in 2007 when Dennis Erickson took over going 10-3 with a Holiday Bowl loss to Texas. While the team might have been overrated two years ago, the payback came last year going 5-7 with a 31-10 loss to Arizona ruining any chance of a bowl game after winning four straight late in the year. The scores are solid across the board, but there need to be more Quality Wins with just nine over the last five years, the fewest among the top 47 teams. The Elite Win came in a win over Iowa in 2004, but that was offset by the Bad Loss at Arizona later in the year.
 
35. Cincinnati
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 72.11
Attendance Score: 2.53
APR Score: 7
Draft: 13
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.83

Program Analysis ... No one thinks about Cincinnati as a football powerhouse, but that's what it has become under Brian Kelly, who came over from Central Michigan and took over for Mark Dantonio, who left for Michigan State. The pieces were in place, and Kelly made them all fit highlighted by last year's Big East title and Orange Bowl appearance. Even with 29 wins in the last three years, getting fans to show up has been a little bit of an issue, but all the other scores are good. Now the real test will come as the program has to rebuild a bit after all the success of last year.
 
34. Virginia
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 73.63
Attendance Score: 5.88
APR Score: 5
Draft: 22
FBS Wins: 33
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.75

Program Analysis ... Considering head coach Al Groh is on a hot seat and Virginia is one of two ACC teams (Duke being the other) that didn't go to a bowl game last year, the ranking isn't all that bad. The APR, considering how strong an academic institution UVA is, is a bit low, but the Draft score is extremely solid. Groh can easily sell recruits on an NFL dream based on track record, but the talent hasn't done enough to carry the team to bigger things. Just going to bowl games isn't enough; there has to be a run for an ACC title soon or Groh will be gone.
 
33. Nebraska
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 73.95
Attendance Score: 8.20
APR Score: 7
Draft: 18
FBS Wins: 32
Quality Wins: 13
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 5.00

Program Analysis ... In 2003 Nebraska was ranked ninth in the rankings and was at a crossroads. It was a superpower in need of an overhaul, and the powers-that-be, more like the powers-that-were, gave it a shot. The Bill Callahan era didn't work, and Nebraska, Nebraska, has won just half of its Big 12 games over the  last five years. Even with all the issues and inconsistencies on the field, the off-the-field scores are solid. The fans will always sell out the place, while the APR score, as expected, is nice and high. But Husker fans want wins, championships, and runs for BCS titles. The era of Big Red dominance might have passed, but Bo Pelini appears to have the team on the verge of being a regular in the Big 12 title chase again.
 
32. BYU
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 74.58
Attendance Score: 6.12
APR Score: 6
Draft: 8
FBS Wins: 40
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 12
Conf. Score: 7.95

Program Analysis ... BYU has always been a strange sort of a program. With the timing of Church missions helping the Cougars to field teams of mature men more often than not, the lack of next-level talent is overcome by age, coaching, and a program that's used to winning. There have been plenty of all-stars and All-Americans, but only eight players have been drafted over the last five years. Boise State is the only team in the top 42 to have fewer. The 40 FBS wins are more than anyone outside of the top 25 as Bronco Mendenhall has created a powerhouse. While the full glory of the LaVell Edwards days hasn't been fully restored, Mendenhall hasn't been far off with three straight double-digit win seasons. With a team good enough to win the Mountain West title this year, and with the 5-6 2004 season not counting in next year's ranking, BYU should be in the top 20 in next year's rankings.
 
31. Oregon State
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 74.89
Attendance Score: 4.11
APR Score: 4
Draft: 16
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 6.28

Program Analysis ... While not as splashy as Oregon, and not as respected in preseason rankings as Cal, Oregon State can argue that it's been every bit as strong as those programs ever since Mike Riley took the reins. The Beavers are always going to have a ceiling with a small stadium and isn't helped by a low APR, but they've been great in Pac 10 play, winning 63% of their games over the last five years, with wins over last year's USC, screwing up a national title shot, along with another win over the Trojans in 2006. The problem has been the big losses. With a Rose Bowl bid there for the taking, OSU got obliterated by Oregon 65-38 last season. There was a blowout loss at Penn State early last year, a 34-3 loss to Cincinnati early in 2007, and ugly losses to UCLA in 2007 and to Boise State and Cal in 2006. But even with the warts on the record, the program has been solid and hasn't been given its just due.
 
30. Georgia Tech
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 75.69
Attendance Score: 4.94
APR Score: 8
Draft: 12
FBS Wins: 34
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 4
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 13
Conf. Score: 6.00

Program Analysis ... Tech wasn't bad with Chan Gailey at the helm, but it appeared to flatten out. Now the program has the potential to be dominant with Paul Johnson and his option attack scaring the bejeebers out of everyone in the ACC. Johnson went 9-4 in his first season, and that was without the players to run his offense properly. The APR is nice and high, as expected, and winning 60% of ACC games is excellent, but there need to be more clutch wins. The team has lost its last four bowl games and lost the 2005 ACC Championship to Wake Forest 9-6, but it showed last year in wins over Miami and Georgia that everything is headed in the right direction. The sky's the limit not that Johnson it bringing in the right guys to do what he wants.
 
29. Texas Tech
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 75.70
Attendance Score: 5.20
APR Score: 5
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 13
Conf. Score: 6.50

Program Analysis ... Was last year representative of a cap on how high the Texas Tech program can go, or was the 11-2 Cotton Bowl campaign the representative of how good it's going to be for the foreseeable future under Mike Leach? It's probably a little of both as the Red Raiders were building towards last year with a veteran team full of stars. There might be a little bit of rebuilding to be done, but Leach has come up with a consistent power on offense and will always be tough to knock down for too long. Now the team has to do a better job of closing. Tech ran out of steam late last year, lost three of four games in a key stretch in 2007, before beating Oklahoma, and lost two of their last three games in 2005. Now it's time to get bigger. Tech should be a top 20 program, but it needs to up the APR to overcome the Attendance, and the wins have to keep coming.
 
28. Notre Dame
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 77.23
Attendance Score: 8.08
APR Score: 9
Draft: 17
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 11
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.65*

* Since Notre Dame doesn't play in a conference, the Conference Score is the winning percentage over the last five years.

Program Analysis ... How bad could things be if Notre Dame, problems and all, are this high? No, this isn't a few years ago when the Irish ranked 14th in both 2004 and 2005 and 12th in 2003, but considering the 3-9 2007 disaster is factored into the equation, and the 35 FBS wins, tied for the lowest among the top 29, this rank shows how the program isn't likely to falter too much even in lean times. The APR and Attendance scores are great, and there are Elite Wins over Navy and Tennessee in 2004. Now the big results have to start coming as Charlie Weis has a veteran team, a relatively cushy schedule, and sky-high expectations. If this isn't a BCS season, there could be a gigantic job opening needing to be filled.
 
27. Clemson
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 77.73
Attendance Score: 7.98
APR Score: 8
Draft: 17
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 14
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.50

Program Analysis ... Clemson never lived up to expectations under Tommy Bowden, and while he was always able to hang on by the skin of his teeth with a few big wins here and there, the disappointment of a 3-4 start to last year proved to be too much to overcome. Even with all the inconsistencies, there were a lot of wins and the players did their job in the classroom. Now it'll be up to Dabo Swinney to not just continue the success, but to do more to get the always talented team to play up to the high level expected. There need to be more wins, with just 14 over the last five years, and upping the 55% conference winning clip is a must. Above all else, Clemson has to finally get to an ACC Championship to show that it has finally lived up to its immense promise.
 
26. Oregon
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 78.62
Attendance Score: 5.84
APR Score: 5
Draft: 18
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 6.28

Program Analysis ... While Oregon might be known more for its gimmicky uniform changes, but there have been plenty of wins and lots off success in the Pac 10, constantly battling California for the honor of being the conference's second best team. But every season seems to keep bringing stunning inconsistencies that keep the program from being among the elite. Whether it was a Dennis Dixon knee injury that ruined a possible national title run in 2006, a muddled quarterback situation at the beginning of 2008, the lack of respect in 2005, or close losses to ruin the 2004 campaign, Oregon wasn't able to put it all together under Mike Bellotti. Now it's Chip Kelly's turn to see if he can be the one to take the Ducks over the top and into the BCS.
 
25. TCU
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 79.31
Attendance Score: 3.06
APR Score: 8
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 44
Quality Wins: 13
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 7.00

Program Analysis ... TCU has more FBS wins than anyone outside of the top 17, the Conference Score is tied for 13th, and the APR is great. Gary Patterson has taken what Dennis Franchione had started and done more. Much more. The move from Conference USA to the Mountain West in 2005 only made the team stronger, and with three 11-win seasons in the last four years, TCU has to start getting more respect on a national scale. The ranking should be in the teens next year once the 5-6 2004 season is out of the equation, but with a low Attendance score and the average Draft score, there's a ceiling on how high the program can get. But there's no limit on what TCU can do on the field with a BCS appearance all but certain in the next few years. If the current rules were in place in 2005, the Horned Frogs would've been a BCS buster.
 
24. Iowa
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 79.55
Attendance Score: 7.05
APR Score: 7
Draft: 17
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 16
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.75

Program Analysis ... The program was stale, head coach Kirk Ferentz had supposedly lost his fastball, there were off-the-field problems that were close to forcing wholesale changes throughout the athletic department ... and then came last season. After becoming a Big Ten superpower in the early part of the decade, ranking seventh in the 2005 rankings and 11th in 2006, Iowa turned average in a hurry going .500 from 2005 through 2007. But Shonn Greene ran wild, the defense came up with a whale of a season, and the Hawkeyes went 9-4 with a national title dream-crushing win over Penn State sparking a four-game run to end the season. Iowa's four losses came by a total of 12 points, and now the hope is to take that success and build on it. Even if 2009 is strong, Iowa will likely dip in the rankings before bouncing back, the 10-2 2004 season won't count last year, but the program is back.
 
23. Louisville
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 80.94
Attendance Score: 4.05
APR Score: 4
Draft: 21
FBS Wins: 41
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 4
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 6.39

Program Analysis ... The Cardinals are renting space in this high-end district with the 11-1 2004 season not counting in next year's rankings. Bobby Petrino had the program on the cusp of true greatness, missing out on a national title shot in 2006 by a field goal against Rutgers, and the success was supposed to continue under Steve Kragthorpe, the red-hot coaching prospect at the time. Instead, Louisville has become average over the last two seasons and doesn't appear to be ready to jump back up this year. The Attendance and APR scores are lousy for a top 25 program, and the Bad Losses to Syracuse over the last two years are going to stick on the books for a while, but the wins have saved the ranking. However, there will be a free-fall unless Kragthorpe has a few tricks up his sleeve.
  
22. Missouri
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 81.12
Attendance Score: 5.87
APR Score: 7
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 17
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.75

Program Analysis ... Head coach Gary Pinkel has done a fantastic job of turning the program around. Mizzou football was non-descript in the Big 8, and was an also-ran early on when the Big 12 was formed, ranking 93rd in 2003, and then Pinkel created a dangerous winner that was this close to being at a previously unthinkable level. Oklahoma has been a thorn in the Tigers' side, keeping the No. 1 team in America out of the 2007 national championship to go along with a 41-31 win earlier that year. The Sooners also beat Missouri in last year's Big 12 title game, but those losses don't take away from all the success. Now the Tigers have to reload after losing QB Chase Daniel, TE Chase Coffman and WR Jeremy Maclin, but there's a ton of athleticism, plenty of good young players, and a lot of promise that the last few years was the tip of the iceberg. The ranking should shoot through the roof after the 5-6 2004 season is out of next year's formula.
 
21. Miami
 

Total Five-Year Program Score: 81.72
Attendance Score: 4.72
APR Score: 10
Draft: 23
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 2.5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.00

Program Analysis ... Miami was No. 1 in the 2003 and 2004 rankings and fell to fifth in both 2005 and 2006, so being here might seem like a disastrous crash for the one-time superstar of college football. Randy Shannon is trying to reload the program and he has the recruiting classes to give hope for Cane fans used to national championship-or-bust seasons. The APR score is stunningly perfect and the Draft score is always going to be among the best, and they need to stay high to overcome the Attendance score and the lack of wins. Miami didn't just struggle after joining the ACC, it has won just half its conference games over the last five years.

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