ffCFN Five-Year Program Analysis
No. 21 to 40
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being
asked to turn things around right away. Five years
allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting
cycle, get comfortable in the position, and
implement everything he'd like to do. With that in
mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program
Analysis (it used to be three years, but we
supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors
like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go
to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge
selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays
the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success
ends up being all that matters, so that's where the
focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might
not add up because we have listed the total number
of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad
Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be
scored differently (two home losses against 3-9
teams would be scored as a 3).
Quick
Explanation of Scores
- Attendance:
Home attendance average over the last five years divided by
10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance
Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th
percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score:
28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage
times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in
a bowl over teams that finished
with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win
over a two-loss team
on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with
three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract
each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5
for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with
two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg.
Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64
-
Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and
Categories
-
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ATS Consultants
40.
Texas A&M
Total Five-Year Program Score:
67.14
Attendance Score: 7.89
APR Score: 7
Draft: 12
FBS Wins: 29
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 4.75
Program Analysis ... Considering how bad
A&M has been over the last several years, being
ranked this high is a big of a shocker. The
Attendance and APR scores help in a big way, and
there have been just enough wins to get by, but
there haven't been enough good wins as the
once-proud program went into a freefall under Dennis
Franchione and hasn't been able to pull up. Mike
Sherman is trying to find something that works, but
he needs more time. Over the last five years, A&M
has lost more than half of its Big 12 games and
hasn't beaten Oklahoma. The last bowl win was in
1995.
39.
South Carolina
Total Five-Year Program Score:
68.15
Attendance Score: 7.90
APR Score: 4
Draft: 15
FBS Wins: 31
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 4.75
Program Analysis ... The working definition
of mediocre in SEC play, South Carolina has won few
than half its conference games over the last five
years and has gone a mere 31-28 against FBS teams.
Going 2-8 over against Florida and Clemson has been
a problem, but not being a factor in the SEC race
year after year has been the biggest beef. Steve
Spurrier was supposed to be the savior, just like
Lou Holtz was, but his offenses can't stop throwing
interceptions and his defenses have been too
inconsistent. Considering South Carolina is supposed
to be one of the SEC's top academic schools, an APR
of 4 is embarrassing.
38.
Wake Forest
Total Five-Year Program Score:
68.63
Attendance Score: 3.13
APR Score: 9
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 34
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 4.25
Program Analysis ... There are no excuses
for small, private schools like Duke, Stanford, and
Baylor to not be more successful when there's Wake
Forest having so much success over the last few
years. The APR is always going to be high and the
Attendance is always going to be on the low side,
but the key is the Draft score. The 11 players
selected are just a tip of the talent iceberg as the
team really has been good enough to compete with and
beat the ACC big boys. The ranking is only going to
get better as the 4-7 2004 and 2005 seasons are
replaced over the next few years, while the 11-3 ACC
championship season of 2006 will hang around for a
while.
37.
UCLA
Total Five-Year Program Score:
69.63
Attendance Score: 6.78
APR Score: 7
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 33
Quality Wins: 13
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 5.35
Program Analysis ... Ever since Ron Dayne
ran amok in Wisconsin's win over UCLA in the 1999
Rose Bowl, the Bruins have been exceptionally
average outside of an aberration of a 10-2 2005
season. Considering the fan base doesn't take
mediocrity all that well, and the program's slide
has coincided with that team on the other side of
town growing into college football's greatest
juggernaut, these have been lean times. The lack of
stars, evidenced by the relatively low Draft score,
has shown why UCLA has fallen so far behind USC, but
there could be problems for at least one more year
as Rick Neuheisel will need a while for his
fantastic first recruiting class to mature.
36. Arizona
State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
69.68
Attendance Score: 6.10
APR Score: 6
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 9
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 5.58
Program Analysis ... A disappointment under
Dirk Koetter, at least compared to expectations, the
Sun Devils rocked out of gate in 2007 when Dennis
Erickson took over going 10-3 with a Holiday Bowl
loss to Texas. While the team might have been
overrated two years ago, the payback came last year
going 5-7 with a 31-10 loss to Arizona ruining any
chance of a bowl game after winning four straight
late in the year. The scores are solid across the
board, but there need to be more Quality Wins with
just nine over the last five years, the fewest among
the top 47 teams. The Elite Win came in a win over
Iowa in 2004, but that was offset by the Bad Loss at
Arizona later in the year.
35.
Cincinnati
Total Five-Year Program Score:
72.11
Attendance Score: 2.53
APR Score: 7
Draft: 13
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.83
Program Analysis ... No one thinks about
Cincinnati as a football powerhouse, but that's what
it has become under Brian Kelly, who came over from
Central Michigan and took over for Mark Dantonio,
who left for Michigan State. The pieces were in
place, and Kelly made them all fit highlighted by
last year's Big East title and Orange Bowl
appearance. Even with 29 wins in the last three
years, getting fans to show up has been a little bit
of an issue, but all the other scores are good. Now
the real test will come as the program has to
rebuild a bit after all the success of last year.
34.
Virginia
Total Five-Year Program Score:
73.63
Attendance Score: 5.88
APR Score: 5
Draft: 22
FBS Wins: 33
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.75
Program Analysis ... Considering head coach
Al Groh is on a hot seat and Virginia is one of two
ACC teams (Duke being the other) that didn't go to a
bowl game last year, the ranking isn't all that bad.
The APR, considering how strong an academic
institution UVA is, is a bit low, but the Draft
score is extremely solid. Groh can easily sell
recruits on an NFL dream based on track record, but
the talent hasn't done enough to carry the team to
bigger things. Just going to bowl games isn't
enough; there has to be a run for an ACC title soon
or Groh will be gone.
33.
Nebraska
Total Five-Year Program Score:
73.95
Attendance Score: 8.20
APR Score: 7
Draft: 18
FBS Wins: 32
Quality Wins: 13
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 5.00
Program Analysis ... In 2003 Nebraska was
ranked ninth in the rankings and was at a
crossroads. It was a superpower in need of an
overhaul, and the powers-that-be, more like the
powers-that-were, gave it a shot. The Bill Callahan
era didn't work, and Nebraska, Nebraska,
has won just half of its Big 12 games over the
last five years. Even with all the issues and
inconsistencies on the field, the off-the-field
scores are solid. The fans will always sell out the
place, while the APR score, as expected, is nice and
high. But Husker fans want wins, championships, and
runs for BCS titles. The era of Big Red dominance
might have passed, but Bo Pelini appears to have the
team on the verge of being a regular in the Big 12
title chase again.
32. BYU
Total Five-Year Program Score:
74.58
Attendance Score: 6.12
APR Score: 6
Draft: 8
FBS Wins: 40
Quality Wins: 12
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 12
Conf. Score: 7.95
Program Analysis ... BYU has always been a
strange sort of a program. With the timing of Church
missions helping the Cougars to field teams of
mature men more often than not, the lack of
next-level talent is overcome by age, coaching, and
a program that's used to winning. There have been
plenty of all-stars and All-Americans, but only
eight players have been drafted over the last five
years. Boise State is the only team in the top 42 to
have fewer. The 40 FBS wins are more than anyone
outside of the top 25 as Bronco Mendenhall has
created a powerhouse. While the full glory of the
LaVell Edwards days hasn't been fully restored,
Mendenhall hasn't been far off with three straight
double-digit win seasons. With a team good enough to
win the Mountain West title this year, and with the
5-6 2004 season not counting in next year's ranking,
BYU should be in the top 20 in next year's rankings.
31.
Oregon State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
74.89
Attendance Score: 4.11
APR Score: 4
Draft: 16
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 8
Conf. Score: 6.28
Program Analysis ... While not as splashy
as Oregon, and not as respected in preseason
rankings as Cal, Oregon State can argue that it's
been every bit as strong as those programs ever
since Mike Riley took the reins. The Beavers are
always going to have a ceiling with a small stadium
and isn't helped by a low APR, but they've been
great in Pac 10 play, winning 63% of their games
over the last five years, with wins over last year's
USC, screwing up a national title shot, along with
another win over the Trojans in 2006. The problem
has been the big losses. With a Rose Bowl bid there
for the taking, OSU got obliterated by Oregon 65-38
last season. There was a blowout loss at Penn State
early last year, a 34-3 loss to Cincinnati early in
2007, and ugly losses to UCLA in 2007 and to Boise
State and Cal in 2006. But even with the warts on
the record, the program has been solid and hasn't
been given its just due.
30.
Georgia Tech
Total Five-Year Program Score:
75.69
Attendance Score: 4.94
APR Score: 8
Draft: 12
FBS Wins: 34
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 4
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 13
Conf. Score: 6.00
Program Analysis ... Tech wasn't bad with
Chan Gailey at the helm, but it appeared to flatten
out. Now the program has the potential to be
dominant with Paul Johnson and his option attack
scaring the bejeebers out of everyone in the ACC.
Johnson went 9-4 in his first season, and that was
without the players to run his offense properly. The
APR is nice and high, as expected, and winning 60%
of ACC games is excellent, but there need to be more
clutch wins. The team has lost its last four bowl
games and lost the 2005 ACC Championship to Wake
Forest 9-6, but it showed last year in wins over
Miami and Georgia that everything is headed in the
right direction. The sky's the limit not that
Johnson it bringing in the right guys to do what he
wants.
29.
Texas Tech
Total Five-Year Program Score:
75.70
Attendance Score: 5.20
APR Score: 5
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 13
Conf. Score: 6.50
Program Analysis ... Was last year
representative of a cap on how high the Texas Tech
program can go, or was the 11-2 Cotton Bowl campaign
the representative of how good it's going to be for
the foreseeable future under Mike Leach? It's
probably a little of both as the Red Raiders were
building towards last year with a veteran team full
of stars. There might be a little bit of rebuilding
to be done, but Leach has come up with a consistent
power on offense and will always be tough to knock
down for too long. Now the team has to do a better
job of closing. Tech ran out of steam late last
year, lost three of four games in a key stretch in
2007, before beating Oklahoma, and lost two of their
last three games in 2005. Now it's time to get
bigger. Tech should be a top 20 program, but it
needs to up the APR to overcome the Attendance, and
the wins have to keep coming.
28.
Notre Dame
Total Five-Year Program Score: 77.23
Attendance Score: 8.08
APR Score: 9
Draft: 17
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 11
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.65*
* Since Notre Dame doesn't play in a conference, the
Conference Score is the winning percentage over the
last five years.
Program Analysis ... How bad could things
be if Notre Dame, problems and all, are this high?
No, this isn't a few years ago when the Irish ranked
14th in both 2004 and 2005 and 12th in 2003, but
considering the 3-9 2007 disaster is factored into
the equation, and the 35 FBS wins, tied for the
lowest among the top 29, this rank shows how the
program isn't likely to falter too much even in lean
times. The APR and Attendance scores are great, and
there are Elite Wins over Navy and Tennessee in
2004. Now the big results have to start coming as
Charlie Weis has a veteran team, a relatively cushy
schedule, and sky-high expectations. If this isn't a
BCS season, there could be a gigantic job opening
needing to be filled.
27.
Clemson
Total Five-Year Program Score:
77.73
Attendance Score: 7.98
APR Score: 8
Draft: 17
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 14
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.50
Program Analysis ... Clemson never lived up
to expectations under Tommy Bowden, and while he was
always able to hang on by the skin of his teeth with
a few big wins here and there, the disappointment of
a 3-4 start to last year proved to be too much to
overcome. Even with all the inconsistencies, there
were a lot of wins and the players did their job in
the classroom. Now it'll be up to Dabo Swinney to
not just continue the success, but to do more to get
the always talented team to play up to the high
level expected. There need to be more wins, with
just 14 over the last five years, and upping the 55%
conference winning clip is a must. Above all else,
Clemson has to finally get to an ACC Championship to
show that it has finally lived up to its immense
promise.
26.
Oregon
Total Five-Year Program Score:
78.62
Attendance Score: 5.84
APR Score: 5
Draft: 18
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 6.28
Program Analysis ... While Oregon might be
known more for its gimmicky uniform changes, but
there have been plenty of wins and lots off success
in the Pac 10, constantly battling California for
the honor of being the conference's second best
team. But every season seems to keep bringing
stunning inconsistencies that keep the program from
being among the elite. Whether it was a Dennis Dixon
knee injury that ruined a possible national title
run in 2006, a muddled quarterback situation at the
beginning of 2008, the lack of respect in 2005, or
close losses to ruin the 2004 campaign, Oregon
wasn't able to put it all together under Mike
Bellotti. Now it's Chip Kelly's turn to see if he
can be the one to take the Ducks over the top and
into the BCS.
25. TCU
Total Five-Year Program Score:
79.31
Attendance Score: 3.06
APR Score: 8
Draft: 11
FBS Wins: 44
Quality Wins: 13
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 14
Conf. Score: 7.00
Program Analysis ... TCU has more FBS wins
than anyone outside of the top 17, the Conference
Score is tied for 13th, and the APR is great. Gary
Patterson has taken what Dennis Franchione had
started and done more. Much more. The move from
Conference USA to the Mountain West in 2005 only
made the team stronger, and with three 11-win
seasons in the last four years, TCU has to start
getting more respect on a national scale. The
ranking should be in the teens next year once the
5-6 2004 season is out of the equation, but with a
low Attendance score and the average Draft score,
there's a ceiling on how high the program can get.
But there's no limit on what TCU can do on the field
with a BCS appearance all but certain in the next
few years. If the current rules were in place in
2005, the Horned Frogs would've been a BCS buster.
24.
Iowa
Total Five-Year Program Score:
79.55
Attendance Score: 7.05
APR Score: 7
Draft: 17
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 16
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.75
Program Analysis ... The program was stale,
head coach Kirk Ferentz had supposedly lost his
fastball, there were off-the-field problems that
were close to forcing wholesale changes throughout
the athletic department ... and then came last
season. After becoming a Big Ten superpower in the
early part of the decade, ranking seventh in the
2005 rankings and 11th in 2006, Iowa turned average
in a hurry going .500 from 2005 through 2007. But
Shonn Greene ran wild, the defense came up with a
whale of a season, and the Hawkeyes went 9-4 with a
national title dream-crushing win over Penn State
sparking a four-game run to end the season. Iowa's
four losses came by a total of 12 points, and now
the hope is to take that success and build on it.
Even if 2009 is strong, Iowa will likely dip in the
rankings before bouncing back, the 10-2 2004 season
won't count last year, but the program is back.
23.
Louisville
Total Five-Year Program Score:
80.94
Attendance Score: 4.05
APR Score: 4
Draft: 21
FBS Wins: 41
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 4
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 6.39
Program Analysis ... The Cardinals are
renting space in this high-end district with the
11-1 2004 season not counting in next year's
rankings. Bobby Petrino had the program on the cusp
of true greatness, missing out on a national title
shot in 2006 by a field goal against Rutgers, and
the success was supposed to continue under Steve
Kragthorpe, the red-hot coaching prospect at the
time. Instead, Louisville has become average over
the last two seasons and doesn't appear to be ready
to jump back up this year. The Attendance and APR
scores are lousy for a top 25 program, and the Bad
Losses to Syracuse over the last two years are going
to stick on the books for a while, but the wins have
saved the ranking. However, there will be a
free-fall unless Kragthorpe has a few tricks up his
sleeve.
22.
Missouri
Total Five-Year Program Score:
81.12
Attendance Score: 5.87
APR Score: 7
Draft: 14
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 17
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 10
Conf. Score: 5.75
Program Analysis ... Head coach Gary Pinkel
has done a fantastic job of turning the program
around. Mizzou football was non-descript in the Big
8, and was an also-ran early on when the Big 12 was
formed, ranking 93rd in 2003, and then Pinkel
created a dangerous winner that was this
close to being at a previously unthinkable level.
Oklahoma has been a thorn in the Tigers' side,
keeping the No. 1 team in America out of the 2007
national championship to go along with a 41-31 win
earlier that year. The Sooners also beat Missouri in
last year's Big 12 title game, but those losses
don't take away from all the success. Now the Tigers
have to reload after losing QB Chase Daniel, TE
Chase Coffman and WR Jeremy Maclin, but there's a
ton of athleticism, plenty of good young players,
and a lot of promise that the last few years was the
tip of the iceberg. The ranking should shoot through
the roof after the 5-6 2004 season is out of next
year's formula.
21.
Miami
Total Five-Year Program Score: 81.72
Attendance Score: 4.72
APR Score: 10
Draft: 23
FBS Wins: 35
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 2.5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 5.00
Program Analysis ... Miami was No. 1 in the
2003 and 2004 rankings and fell to fifth in both
2005 and 2006, so being here might seem like a
disastrous crash for the one-time superstar of
college football. Randy Shannon is trying to reload
the program and he has the recruiting classes to
give hope for Cane fans used to national
championship-or-bust seasons. The APR score is
stunningly perfect and the Draft score is always
going to be among the best, and they need to stay
high to overcome the Attendance score and the lack
of wins. Miami didn't just struggle after joining
the ACC, it has won just half its conference games
over the last five years.
FF