CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
No. 11 to 20
Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being
asked to turn things around right away. Five years
allow a coach to go through an entire recruiting
cycle, get comfortable in the position, and
implement everything he'd like to do. With that in
mind, we have created our CFN Five-Year Program
Analysis (it used to be three years, but we
supersized it) highlighting off-the-field factors
like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go
to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge
selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays
the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success
ends up being all that matters, so that's where the
focus lies. One note, the totals for each team might
not add up because we have listed the total number
of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad
Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be
scored differently (two home losses against 3-9
teams would be scored as a 3).
Quick
Explanation of Scores
- Attendance:
Home attendance average over the last five years divided by
10,000. Avg. Score: 4.38
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance
Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th
percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.85
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
a winning record. Avg. Score: 9.77
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score:
28.75
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.70
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage
times 10. Avg. Score: 4.99
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with
two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in
a bowl over teams that finished
with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win
over a two-loss team
on the road. Avg. Number: 1.39
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with
three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract
each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5
for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.25
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with
two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg.
Number: 5.15
- Bad Wins: Wins teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 10.64
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Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and
Categories
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20.
Alabama
Total Five-Year Program Score:
82.04
Attendance Score: 8.79
APR Score: 8
Draft: 16
FBS Wins: 38
Quality Wins: 14
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 13
Conf. Score: 5.75
Program Analysis ... Nick Saban is getting
all the credit for the resurgence of the star
program, and rightly so as his Tide was one quarter
away from playing for the national championship last
season, but the ranking is this high partly due to
Mike Shula. Cast aside after a not-that-bad 6-7
2006, Shula also led the Tide to a 10-2, Cotton
Bowl-winning 2005. His struggles against Auburn did
him in, and his firing was a case of taking a step
back to take a huge leap forward because it meant
Saban was brought aboard. This is likely as low as
the program is going to ever be under Saban's reign
with more Quality and Elite wins on the way, while
the Attendance and APR scores are expected to stay
high.
19.
California
Total Five-Year Program Score: 85.55
Attendance Score: 6.27
APR Score: 9
Draft: 21
FBS Wins: 42
Quality Wins: 14
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 12
Conf. Score: 6.28
Program Analysis ... California football
was a non-entity until Jeff Tedford arrived. The
program was ranked 74th in 2003, was never in the
hunt for bowl games, and then it became on the
fringe of the elite. On the fringe ... but not in
the VIP lounge. For all the good things the Bears
have done over the last several years, there haven't
been the huge wins needed to get into the BCS or to
prove that Cal football deserves more respect. Oh
sure, there are plenty of wins, and a nice winning
percentage in Pac 10 play, but the team has been
flaky. On the cusp of being No. 1, a brain-cramp
from QB Kevin Riley led to a loss to Oregon State in
2007 that kicked off a run of six losses in seven
games. There were too many losses to average teams
last year, November road losses to Arizona
(mediocre) and USC (national title-good) ruined a
promising 2006, a run of four losses in five games
killed 2005, and a loss to Texas Tech in the 2004
Holiday Bowl showed that the 10-2 team didn't
deserve to be in the BCS. Can the Bears put a full
season together? This might be the year with
Tedford's best team yet.
18.
Florida State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
86.34
Attendance Score: 8.09
APR Score: 5
Draft: 26
FBS Wins: 37
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 9
Conf. Score: 5.75
Program Analysis ... No program can
possibly maintain the ridiculously high standard
Florida State set for over a decade, and this
ranking reflects that the slide out of college
football's penthouse wasn't that bad. No. 2 in the
2003 rankings and in the top ten in 2004 through
2006, the last five years have been a major
disappointment for Noles fans. Even though there
haven't been the consistent national title
appearances like there were in years past, FSU is
still a factory for NFL talent, there are still
plenty of big wins, and there has still been success
even with the academic scandals proving to be a
major distraction. Even so, for Florida State, who
spent years owning the ACC, to win 57.5% of its
conference games is a problem. And no, there are no
vacated wins in the CFN Program Rankings.
17.
Utah
Total Five-Year Program Score:
88.53
Attendance Score: 4.34
APR Score: 8
Draft: 13
FBS Wins: 47
Quality Wins: 16
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 15
Conf. Score: 7.44
Program Analysis ... Only USC, Texas,
Oklahoma, Florida, Ohio State, LSU, and Boise State
have won more FBS games over the last five years
than Utah. A solid all-around program for years,
Urban Meyer took it to another level with an Alex
Smith-led perfect season and Fiesta Bowl win in 2004
(which won't count in next year's rankings), and
Kyle Whittingham helped keep the momentum going with
three solid years and then last year's monster
campaign. The 13-0, Sugar Bowl winning 2008 team
missed out on the national title discussion, but it
showed that Utah could hang with anyone in America
if all the pieces are in place. The Utes have plenty
of speed, athleticism, and talent, but there will be
a little bit of rebuilding over the next few years.
With eight bowl wins in a row, the program knows how
to get the job done when the lights are on. Soon,
the Utes would finally like the chance to show what
it can do with a national title at stake.
16.
Wisconsin
Total Five-Year Program Score:
89.68
Attendance Score: 8.18
APR Score: 8
Draft: 21
FBS Wins: 44
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 16
Conf. Score: 6.50
Program Analysis ... For a program coming
off a mega-disappointment of a season and with a
coach that's on a hot seat, Wisconsin is ranked
extremely high. The biggest fun stat is the Draft
score, with the 21 players taken putting the Badgers
ahead of Florida, Tennessee, Penn State, and
Alabama, while all the other scores are terrific.
The APR and Attendance scores are always going to be
solid, and winning 65% of Big Ten games is a huge
boost, but there have to be more big wins under Bret
Bielema. The team played down to its competition
last season and didn't show up in the 42-13 Champs
Sports Bowl loss to Florida State. Can the Badgers
put together a full season and get back to the
BCS-caliber level of 2006? Bielema thinks so, but
the suddenly fickle UW fans want to see a return to
the Big Ten title days.
15.
West Virginia
Total Five-Year Program Score:
89.95
Attendance Score: 5.80
APR Score: 5
Draft: 10
FBS Wins: 46
Quality Wins: 19
Elite Win Score: 4
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 12
Conf. Score: 7.65
Program Analysis ... Considering
the ranking was 59 in 2003 and 55 in 2004, the rise
into prominence has been impressive. Mountaineer fans might
not be all that happy with Rich Rodriguez and how he
left the program, but he built it up into a
powerhouse that was a gag against Pitt away from
playing for the 2007 national championship. Bill
Stewart had a nice first season, but 9-4 and the
Meineke Car Care Bowl is a disappointment for a team
used to being the star of the Big East. Most
interestingly, the Mountaineers are succeeding
without a ton of next-level talent. Only ten players
have been drafted over the last five years; tied for
the fewest among of anyone ranked in the top 30.
14.
Boston College
Total Five-Year Program Score:
91.92
Attendance Score: 4.09
APR Score: 9
Draft: 10
FBS Wins: 44
Quality Wins: 24
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 6.25
Program Analysis ... No one thinks of
Boston College as a superpower, and it's likely
going to struggle this season with massive personnel
losses, but there's no denying the success of the
last several seasons. The 44 FBS wins put the Eagles
in elite company even with two losses in consecutive
ACC championships. The high APR helped save
the average Attendance score, and Matt Ryan aside,
the Draft score hasn't been anything special. The 24
Quality Wins are fantastic with only USC, Texas,
Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, and Virginia Tech with
more. Can the Eagles stay this high with so many
concerns going into the season? They've defied logic
and expectations before.
13.
Penn State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
93.65
Attendance Score: 10.65
APR Score: 9
Draft: 18
FBS Wins: 42
Quality Wins: 16
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 11
Conf. Score: 6.25
Program Analysis ... If this seems a bit
low for a team with the success Penn State has had
over the last few years, don't forget that there's a
4-7 2004 season in the equation. Next year, the
Nittany Lions will almost certainly be deep into the
top ten if there's a run to a possible Big Ten title
like there's expected to be. The Attendance and APR
scores are the best in the country, and saved the
program in the 2005 rankings when it was 48th, but
the Draft score should be higher. The Elite wins
were against Ohio State in 2005 and 2008, while the
worst loss in the last four seasons was to a
not-that-bad Michigan State at the end of 2007.
There has only been one loss to a team that finished
with a losing record since 2001.
12.
Tennessee
Total Five-Year Program Score:
93.76
Attendance Score: 10.51
APR Score: 7
Draft: 18
FBS Wins: 39
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Win Score: 4
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 8
Bad Wins: 7
Conf. Score: 6.00
Program Analysis ... The program can't be
struggling that much to be this high, but at a place
that expects SEC championships and national title
runs, it needed a fresh breath. Lane Kiffin has been
a hurricane, and he has the task to return the team
to the glory of a few years ago when it ranked fifth
in both 2003 and 2004. The slide can be tied to one
area ... the Draft score. Tennessee used to be a
factory for cranking out NFL talent, but the 18
players drafted over the last five years are
relatively low for a program this good. If the top
talent isn't there, the big-time wins over the elite
SEC teams aren't likely to follow. With the great
recruiting class of last year kicking off the Kiffin
era, there's hope for a quick rebound.
11.
Boise State
Total Five-Year Program Score:
94.32
Attendance Score: 3.07
APR Score: 9
Draft: 7
FBS Wins: 51
Quality Wins: 20
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 18
Conf. Score: 9.50
Program Analysis ... When you win 95% of
your conference games (the best in the country by
far) and win 51 FBS games (fourth best) in a
five-year span, you're going to be counted among the
elite of the elite teams. However, for as much good
as Boise State has done under Dan Hawkins and Chris
Petersen, the Draft score, the loses among the top
42 teams, and the Attendance score are limiting. On
the plus side, Boise State not only is great on the
field, but its high APR shows it's doing things the
right way. Don't expect a slide any time soon as
this year's team should continue the run of
double-digit win seasons. BSU is currently on a
streak of six seasons in the last seven and nine of
the last 11 with ten wins or more.