2009 Big East Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 6 Games
Cincinnati
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Connecticut
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Louisville
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Pittsburgh
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Rutgers
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South
Florida |
Syracuse
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West
Virginia
Big East Fearless Predictions
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Week 1, Part 2 (Connecticut
vs. Ohio, and More)
Game of the Week
Cincinnati (0-0) at Rutgers (0-0),
4:00 pm ET, ESPN
Why To Watch: So much for easing into the season. While other Big East schools are opening with cream puffs, like Indiana State, Wofford, and Youngstown State, Cincinnati and Rutgers hit the ground running in a race for a ridiculously early conference lead. The Bearcats may be the defending champs, but graduation took a heavy toll on the two-deep, especially on defense. If this team in transition can get out of New Jersey with a win, it’ll send shockwaves throughout the league that Brian Kelly’s kids are determined to defend their crown in 2009. Is this the year that Rutgers evolves beyond just a second-rate bowl invitation? Considering the school’s history, there’s nothing wrong with five straight bowl games, but the Knights desire more, like a BCS bowl berth. There’s an opening to be this year’s Cincy if the school can plug some glaring holes on offense.
Why Cincinnati Might Win: While the Scarlet Knights are rebuilding at the most important position on the field, the Bearcats are set with senior Tony Pike, who’s coming off a breakthrough junior year. He and his receivers, namely superstar Mardy Gilyard, will have to carry this team until the defense finds its footing. Rutgers is vulnerable at the corner position opposite Devin McCourty and light on the interior, which should create running room for John Goebel, Jacob Ramsey, and Isaiah Pead.
Why Rutgers Might Win: There is unequivocal talent on that Cincinnati defense, but with 10 new starters, you’re not going to know it until later in the year. As the Scarlet Knights make adjustments of their own with Domenic Natale at quarterback and a new contingent of receivers, they’ll put the fate of the offense in the hands of the running game. The backfield is well-fortified with the returns of Joe Martinek and Jourdan Brooks, who’ll be running behind one of the Big East’s top offensive lines. All five starters are back, led by LT Anthony Davis, which will allow Rutgers to play keep-away from that Bearcat offense.
Players To Watch: Okay, so Mike Teel, Kenny Britt, and Tiquan Underwood are no longer around to dent opposing defensive backfields. That doesn’t mean Rutgers won’t pop the occasional big play through the air. Natale—and opposing defensive backs—will want to know where Tim Brown is at all times. The diminutive speedster with the bloated career yards per catch average will get behind a secondary that lost three players to the NFL.
What Will Happen: What makes this game so interesting is that both schools are trying to adapt to the losses of some of their all-time great players. Which of the talented head coaches, Kelly or Schiano, did a better job of regrouping in the offseason? Beyond just home field advantage, Rutgers rates an edge in all areas except in the passing game. Unless Pike and Gilyard go nuts, it won’t be enough. The Knights will play ball control with their ground game and keep the Bearcats in check with a far better front seven.
CFN Prediction: Rutgers 24 … Cincinnati 17 ... Line:
Rutgers -5.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 3.5 ...
Free Expert Football Predictions
Minnesota (0-0) at
Syracuse (0-0),
12:00 EST, ESPN, Saturday, September 5
Why to watch: Welcome to the first day of the rest of the Syracuse program’s life. After crashing and burning in the Greg Robinson era, the once proud Orange, a regular in the Big East title hunt and a fringe national title contender around ten years ago, will try to begin anew under head coach Doug Marrone. A true believer who openly wanted to coach his alma mater, Maronne can start to work miracles right away if he can start out his era with a home win over a Minnesota team desperate for a hot start. One of the biggest surprises of the first half of 2008, Minnesota was awful at times over a five game losing streak that wiped away all the positives of the first few months. Next week is the real opener for the Gophers as they break in their new stadium against Air Force, but head coach Tim Brewster could use a decent road win to prove that this really might be a new team with the potential to be far more consistent.
Why Minnesota might win: Does the Orange have the defensive back seven to handle the Minnesota short to midrange passing game? The Gopher coaching staff has been talking about the offense being more balanced and more effective on the ground, but the bread will be buttered with QB Adam Weber, WR Eric Decker, and the air attack. Syracuse doesn’t have the secondary to keep Weber from being ultra-efficient, while the linebackers are suspect enough to have problems whenever the passing game works wide. The linebackers were considered a problem coming into the season, and things got much, much worse with several personnel losses, including the departure of Mike Mele, a starter in the middle who’ll play for UMass, and Derek Hines, a good-looking JUCO transfer who left the team in fall practice.
Why Syracuse might win: The Minnesota secondary is fine, but nothing special, and it should have problems staying with Mike Williams and the Syracuse receiving corps. The Orange isn’t exactly going to be Oklahoma throwing the ball, but Williams, who missed all of last year after being suspended for academic issues, should have a huge day against the secondary that’ll desperately miss Tramaine Brock, the star safety who’s out after
struggling to get to class. Throw in Lavar Lobdell, Donte Davis, and tight end Mike Owen and SU should be able to overcome a shaky ground game by throwing the way Marrone wants his team to. That means the spotlight will be on ...
Who to watch: … Syracuse QB Greg Paulus. The former Duke point guard was a superstar high school quarterback prospect, but he chose to try to become the next great Blue Devil floor general. With his hoops career going nowhere, and with one year of eligibility left, he shopped himself around trying to find the right fit. Marrone sold him on the idea of playing for the Orange, and starting, and it’s all coming true for the local product. Paulus hasn’t thrown a pass yet as a collegian, but he has been surprisingly sharp in practices, knows what he’s doing, and moves like a Duke point guard would be expected to. He’s the team’s X factor this year, and the pressure of the season will fall on his shoulders.
What will happen: Paulus will be solid and will provide hope that the Orange season might not be so bad, but Minnesota’s defense will force at least four turnovers to make up for the inconsistency on offense. Each team will make this enough of a shootout to be entertaining.
CFN Prediction: Minnesota 37 … Syracuse 27 ... Line: Minnesota -7
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2.5
Liberty (0-0) at West Virginia (0-0),
12:00 pm ET
Why To Watch: It’s the dawn of a new era at West Virginia, and that might not be such a good thing. Last year, the Mountaineers played to mixed reviews in their first season without head coach Rich Rodriguez. This year, they must move forward without QB Pat White, one of the greatest players to ever wear the school colors. With Bill Stewart on the sidelines and Jarrett Brown behind center, is this still the consensus favorite in the Big East? While a visit from Liberty won’t answer that question, it will help the program begin sorting out some issues on offense, specifically with a rebuilt offensive line. The Flames have some juggling of their own to do in 2009. Fresh off an impressive 10-2 campaign, they’re facing wholesale changes on both sides of the ball that make a repeat performance unlikely.
Why Liberty Might Win: Yeah, there’ll be lots of new faces on the two-deep this season, but the Flames have created a system that perennially churns out tough, no-nonsense ground games. They’ll try to play ball control, keeping the Mountaineers—and their own defense—off the field for large chunks of time. Even with White still in Morgantown, West Virginia no longer looked like the explosive attack of a few years ago that could rip off 50-yarders at will and rob the life out of opponents.
Why West Virginia Might Win: Liberty might be able to run the ball, but it has no one, who can even approach the talent and explosiveness of Noel Devine. The new cover boy of the Mountaineer offense, he’s always one timely block or sliver of daylight away from changing the tempo of a game. While the West Virginia defense might bend on occasion, it will rarely break. This is a stingy unit, with a talented front seven that plays its best with its back against the end zone.
Players To Watch: Without much offseason attention, West Virginia is getting back one of its heart-and-soul leaders on defense. After missing most of 2008 with shoulder problems, Reed Williams returns to hold down the job at middle linebacker. Although he won’t jump off the charts as a next-level prospect, he does everything a staff needs, including shutting down running lanes and making those around him better. If he can stay healthy, running the ball on the Mountaineers will be a lot tougher now that No. 47 is back on the field.
What Will Happen: With games coming up against East Carolina, Auburn, and Colorado, West Virginia plans to use this opener as a chance to work out some of the kinks on offense. The Mountaineers won’t have to break much of a sweat to earn their first win, rolling behind Devine and Brown on offense and hemming in a Liberty team faced with way too much turnover.
CFN Prediction: West Virginia 44 … Liberty 0 ... Line:
No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 1 ...
Free Expert Football Predictions
Youngstown State (0-0) at Pittsburgh (0-0),
1:00 pm ET
Why To Watch: So, where does Pittsburgh fit into the muddled Big East pecking order? While the Panthers are coming off their most wins since 2002 and a long overdue bowl appearance, they’re also trying to replace their best player on offense and defense. After four up-and-down years, Dave Wannstedt has finally laid the bottom floor at his alma mater and begins 2009 in firm contention for a conference championship. Pitt’s quest for higher ground starts with a visit from Youngstown State, a below average program by Missouri Valley standards. The Penguins are coming off a 4-8 season, failing to get on the board in last year’s opener with Ohio State.
Why Youngstown State Might Win: The strength of the Penguins is clearly on offense, where QB Brandon Summers, RB Kevin Smith, and WR Donald Jones are all back from last season. Jones is a bona fide star, who’s been getting plenty of attention from NFL scouts. If Youngstown State can score early, it’ll put an awful lot of pressure on a Pittsburgh offense that lacks bite. In the backfield alone, Bill Stull is a liability at quarterback, and someone needs to step up and offset the lost production of RB LeSean McCoy.
Why Pittsburgh Might Win: The Youngstown State defense might be the perfect antidote for that inconsistent Panther attack. The Penguins can’t stop MVC teams, let alone one with Big East athletes. The Pitt offensive line will maul Youngstown at the point of attack, giving Stull the time he needs to find WR Jonathan Baldwin and TE Nate Byham. At least for one week, McCoy won’t be missed, as his successors run through and around the Penguin D. Summers to Jones can be a dangerous connection, but not if Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard, assuming his balky knee is healthy, spend all afternoon in the backfield. The juniors form one of the best pass-rushing bookends in America.
Players To Watch: Who does replace McCoy, Pitt’s best back since Tony Dorsett in the 1970s? Two interesting options are true freshman Dion Lewis, who already turned heads in the spring and has earned an important role, and Ray Graham. At 5-8 and 190 pounds, Lewis has a knack for hiding behind the big linemen before busting out into daylight.
What Will Happen: Pittsburgh will be easing into the 2009 schedule with a visit from Youngstown State, which isn’t likely to present a challenge beyond the first quarter. The Panther D is stout enough in all aspects to flirt with its first shutout since blanking the Penguins four years ago. The offense can use this game as a dress rehearsal before the schedule gets increasingly tougher in September.
CFN Prediction: Pitt 41 … Youngstown State 3 ... Line:
No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 1 ...
Free Expert Football Predictions
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Week 1, Part 2 (Connecticut
vs. Ohio, and More)