2009 Big 12 Fearless Picks, Week 1, Part 2

Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 Big 12 Games, Part 2

2009 Big 12 Fearless Predictions

Week 1 ... Sept. 6 Games, Part 2

North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech

Big 12 Fearless Predictions

- Week 1, Part 1

Florida Atlantic (0-0) at Nebraska (0-0),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: Howard Schnellenberger led the Miami Hurricanes to one of the biggest shockers in college football history in a national title win over the mighty Nebraska Cornhuskers in the 1984 Orange Bowl. No he leads a good Florida Atlantic team into Lincoln with a chance to pull off another upset, and this one might not quite as stunning. Nebraska is solid under head coach Bo Pelini, who pulled the program up out of the nosedive of a Bill Callahan era, but it’s reloading on offense and needs to establish itself early on defensively. FAU won’t just roll over; this might be the Sun Belt’s best team and it has the makeup and the character to make this far more entertaining than Big Red fans might like.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: Rusty Smith vs. the Nebraska secondary. The Husker defensive backs will be as good as the pass rush, and Schnellenberger’s lines are fantastic at keeping the quarterback clean. The Owls were 17th in the nation last season in sacks allowed, and part of that was due to Smith, the Sun Belt’s best quarterback, getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry. FAU has just enough of a receiving corps to give the Huskers fits. Nebraska can’t rest if it gets a lead.
Why Nebraska might win: The Huskers might be replacing several key players on offense, but the FAU defense is undergoing a facelift on defense, especially in the front seven. The Owls always have quick defenders, but there isn’t a lot of size and there isn’t enough overall experience to count on. FAU has to make this a shootout and hope that Smith gets red hot, but the Owl defensive front isn’t likely to provide a lick of pressure. Not helping the cause if the loss of end Jamere Johnson to a knee injury and tackle Andy Czuprynski to an ankle problem.
Who to watch: The Nebraska defense will be more than fine, Pelini coached defenses rarely struggle, and the running game will be serviceable, but QB Zac Lee has to be excellent if there’s any hope of a run for the Big 12 title. He doesn’t have an elite group of receivers to work with and he doesn’t have a killer ground game to take the pressure off, so with this game against Florida Atlantic and the follow-up against Arkansas State to tune up, Lee needs to be strong early to be ready for Virginia Tech on September 19th.
What will happen: The Husker defense will give up too many passing yards, but the FAU defense won’t do nearly enough to come up with the big stops needed to get the win. This won’t be a walk in the park, but Nebraska will keep the Owls at arm’s length all game long.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 37 … Florida Atlantic 13 ... Line: Nebraska -21.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 2

Northern Colorado (0-0) at Kansas (0-0),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: There will be several interesting battles throughout the first weekend of the college football season. This won’t be one of them. Call this target practice for a Kansas offense that should be able to call its shot against a Northern Colorado team that’ll battle to stay out of the Big Sky basement. KU QB Todd Reesing and the passing game are always worth the price of admission, but this game will be more about trying to establish the running game and establishing the pecking order for the depth chart.
Why Northern Colorado might win: The Bears should be able to throw the ball. Even with an ugly 1-10 record last season, including six straight losses to close things out, there were several tight battles and the team never rolled over and died. This year’s team gets back QB Bryan Waggener, a transfer from Florida who hasn’t been all that efficient, but he’ll put up enough yards to keep the Jayhawk secondary working.
Why Kansas might win: The Northern Colorado secondary couldn’t stop anyone last year, and the prospects for a major improvement aren’t that solid going into this season. The defensive front should be able to manufacture a little bit of pressure, but the defensive backs will get torn apart by all the Jayhawk receiving weapons. Call it a major upset if Reesing blows more than two third down conversion attempts.
Who to watch: Everyone knows KU will be winging the ball all over the field. With a veteran in Reesing and with targets like Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, the KU coaching staff was openly wondering how anyone will be able to cover all the weapons. The key for the Jayhawk season will be to establish the ground game. Jocques Crawford was a super-recruit JUCO transfer a few years ago who was supposed to be the next big thing, but he washed out and transferred. Jake Sharp is fine, and he’ll be the No. 1 option, but he doesn’t quite fit the offense. In what should be a blowout, KU will hope a runner emerges to grow into another option next to Sharp.
What will happen: Kansas will get up huge early and call off the dogs in the third quarter. Reesing will have an ultra-efficient day, but it’ll be the running game that ends up taking over.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 58 … Northern Colorado 6 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 1

New Mexico (0-0) at Texas A&M (0-0),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: These two played a whale of a game last year. The Aggies were looking to get off to a big start in Mike Sherman’s first season, but after a stunning loss to Arkansas State, they had to battle to hold off New Mexico in a 28-22 victory. This year, the Lobos are starting a new era of their own with Mike Locksley coming in after leading the Illinois offense. What will New Mexico be? There will be a more open attack compared to the Rocky Long tenure, and there might have to be a lot more offense to keep up with an Aggie attack that’s looking to be far more consistent, more balanced, and more explosive. If New Mexico wins, it would be the type of victory that could carry a program with a new head coach through the first month of the season, while Texas A&M needs this win to get off to a hot start with layups against Utah State and UAB to follow.
Why New Mexico might win: The Aggie defensive front seven should be better, it can’t be any worse, but it’s not going to be a brick wall right away. The defensive line failed to generate and pressure last season, and while defensive coordinator Joe Kines has promised that there will be more production, that remains to be seen. The line will have to play it relatively safe to hide a green group of linebackers that could struggle mightily if the Lobos are able to get their runners to the second level.
Why Texas A&M might win: If the Aggie O line can do just enough to keep QB Jerrod Johnson upright, the opportunities will be there for some big home runs. A&M was miserable in pass protection last season and did what it could this offseason to figure out how to give the offense more time to work, but it’s going to have to deal with a variety of blitzes and jailbreaks from the Lobo defense. On the plus side for A&M, this is a very, very young and inexperienced New Mexico defense that doesn’t have any size and has huge, gaping question marks at tackle and in the secondary. If A&M can be patient, the big plays will be there.
Who to watch: The quarterback situations were finally sorted out, and they turned out as expected. There was talk that the Aggies’ leading receiver, Ryan Tannehill, was going to take over the starting quarterback job, but now he’ll be permanently moved to backup quarterback and isn’t expected to be used at wideout. Johnson is the starter and he’ll be allowed to progress. For New Mexico, Donovan Porterie is back from a bad knee injury and is the team’s most dangerous option. He needed work on his mechanics and his decision making, and the improvements made this offseason got him the job.
What will happen: New Mexico will annoy the Aggies with an offense full of quirks and wrinkles and a defense full of blitzes and aggressiveness, but Johnson will connect on two big back-breaking plays that will open up a tight game midway through the second half.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 34 … New Mexico 16 ... Line: Texas A&M -14
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 1.5

North Dakota (0-0) at Texas Tech (0-0),7:00 EST, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: It’s Texas Tech, so the non-conference schedule is built for target practice. This year, the team needs it with so many key replacements in the passing game, and QB Taylor Potts will get his chance to shine right away against a North Dakota team that shouldn’t be able to defend the pass in any way, shape, or form. While the Red Raiders will put up huge numbers, the Fighting Sioux offense should have a few big moments with a strong passing attack of its own. This will be a blowout, but it’ll be a fun blowout.
Why North Dakota might win: Tech has a bunch of kinks to work out on defense. The ends are a question mark, helped by the loss of McKinner Dixon this offseason to academic issues, and the secondary needs its safeties to show they can play with the Houston passing game coming up in a few weeks. The Fighting Sioux have a nice back in Josh Murray who should come up with a good day on the ground, and he’ll need one with Jake Landry taking over at quarterback.
Why Texas Tech might win: It’s a new season and there are always changes and adjustments, but North Dakota isn’t expected to be much better defensively when it comes to generating pressure. The D came up with a mere 16 sacks and paltry 47 tackles for loss last season and it’s not going to lay a hand on Potts. The last thing a Texas Tech quarterback needs is time, and Potts will be able to look for his third, fourth, and fifth options.
Who to watch: Is Potts ready to be the next superstar Red Raider passer? It’s not like he’s coming in cold, he has seen significant garbage time over the last two years, and there’s no talk whatsoever of there being any drop-off in production from last year’s passing attack. But head coach Mike Leach has always been known for being a bit prickly when it comes to demanding perfection, or something close to it, when it comes to his quarterbacks, and if his No. 1 isn’t lighting up North Dakota like a Christmas tree, it’ll make for a very interesting week going into the game against Rice.
What will happen: Texas Tech will be able to hang 70 if it desires. The offense needs work and it needs the live action, so don’t expect Leach to call off the dogs until late.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 63 … North Dakota 17 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 1

Massachusetts (0-0) at Kansas State (0-0),7:10 EST, Saturday, September 5

Why to watch: If Bill Snyder is the head coach, you know there’s a game against a team like Massachusetts to kick off a squishy soft non-conference schedules. Louisiana-Lafayette and Tennessee Tech are still to come, but to be fair, there’s a road trip to UCLA. Also, to be fair, UMass isn’t a total pushover of a FCS team. While the Minutemen won’t likely be a major player in the Colonial title hunt, there’s just enough talent across the board to make Kansas State try for a quarter. The two teams shared a common opponent last season with Texas Tech beating Kansas State 58-28 and beat UMass 56-14.
Why Massachusetts might win: The KSU defense is hardly a finished product. Things aren’t nearly as bad in Manhattan as they were when Snyder first took the job, but this is a Wildcat team that needs a lot of time and a big overhaul. UMass should be solid in pass protection, the line allowed just six sacks last season, and there should be an efficient passing attack. If KSU isn’t generating pressure and it isn’t getting into the backfield, a decent offense like UMass has could surprise and could stay in the game for a full sixty minutes.
Why Kansas State might win: If the Wildcats can’t run on UMass, they won’t be able to run on anyone. The Minutemen will have to win games with its offense, even with plenty of experience returning at linebacker and with three starters back on the front four. The stars of the defense were at corner last year, and now both starters need to be replaced meaning the Wildcat passing game should have some big moments, but this game needs to be about establishing the ground game. KSU might not be steady right away, but it has a good enough offensive line to pound away.
Who to watch: This would be a far different season with far greater expectations if Josh Freeman was back, but it’s not like Carson Coffman is being dragged out of chemistry class to suit up. The junior was in a battle with South Florida transfer Grant Gregory for the job, and he did just enough to win the starting job … for now. If Coffman isn’t sharp, Snyder has said he won’t hesitate to put Gregory in. UMass also has a quarterback situation after losing star Liam Coen, but JUCO transfer Kyle Havens should be able to step in to the Kevin Morris offense and shine right away.
What will happen: It’s not going to be pretty, but Snyder will try to rekindle memories of the old days by beating an inferior program into the ground. Kansas State will win and will win easily, but it’ll take a half to allow everyone to breathe easier.
CFN Prediction: Kansas State 45 … Massachusetts 13 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 1.5

Colorado State (0-0) at Colorado (0-0),7:00 EST, Sunday, September 6

Why to watch: These two always, always play interesting games. Colorado won in a 38-17 relative blowout last season and there was still plenty of excitement with a few big kick returns. Before the 2008 Buff win, the previous six games in the bitter rivalry were decided by seven points or fewer, and this year’s battle shouldn’t be any less interesting. Colorado State improved by leaps and bounds as the first year under head coach Steve Fairchild went on, with three straight wins to close things out. The excitement is high this season with the potential for a more dynamic offense and a veteran defense that’s expected to be better in all areas. For Colorado, this is do-or-die time. The first three years under Dan Hawkins have been a tremendous disappointment, and while he’s not on a true hot seat quite yet, a loss to the hated Rams would get the fan base grumbling. With three road games in the next four, including trips to West Virginia and Texas, a loss could mean a disastrous start and the beginning of the end to the Hawkins era. He has his best team yet, and for once, it’s healthy. This game has to represent the first day of the rest of the program’s life, while Colorado State has to see this as an opportunity to make a major statement for itself and the Mountain West.
Why Colorado State might win: The pressure has always been on Colorado in this series, it’s the bigger profile program, but now the heat is really on considering the desperate need for a hot start. The Buffalo defense should be solid across the board, but it’s not going to be a big playmaking group and it could be prone to giving up the big play. Colorado State might not have a consistent offense right away, but with one of the Mountain West’s strongest receiving corps, there should be a few home runs hit if the Buffs get out to a decent lead. CSU should be able to bomb its way back into the game.
Why Colorado might win: The Colorado State coaching staff made a point of trying to develop more of a pass rush and to be more aggressive this offseason, but the defense is starting from point zero. The Rams were among the worst in America at generating pressure in the backfield and almost never got to the quarterback. Worst of all, the run defense was awful and it isn’t likely to shine right away with a major turnover in the linebacking corps. That could be a huge problem because of ...
Who to watch: Colorado RB Darrell Scott. The superstar recruit of last year didn’t appear to be ready for the big time right away. By his own admission, he wasn’t in the shape he needed to be in and he went through a rough time getting acclimated to the game at a Big 12 level. That’s not the case anymore. He appears ready to be in for a breakout season and become the superstar everyone was expecting he’d be last year, and this could be his welcome-to-the-world game. For Colorado State, the big offseason question mark was the quarterback situation. After much secrecy, the starting gig will go to Grant Stucker, a great athlete who has been around long enough to know what he’s doing. However, if he struggles, Klay Kubiak might be thrown into the mix right away.
What will happen: Colorado will run the ball, Colorado State will stay in the game with a few big plays, and it’ll be another fun and exciting chapter in the rivalry. The Buffs will do just enough on defense to overcome the home runs, while the Buff offense will be just steady enough to get by.
CFN Prediction: Colorado 27 … Colorado State 20 ... Line: Colorado -11
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 ... NYC Prep 1) … 3

- Week 1, Part 1