2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions - Week 1

Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 Conference USA Games, Part 1

2009 C-USA Fearless Predictions

Week 1 ... Sept. 6 Games

East  UAB | UCF | East Carolina | Marshall | Memphis | Southern Miss
West  Houston | Rice | SMU | Tulane | Tulsa | UTEP

Conference USA Fearless Predictions

- Week 1, Part 2

Game of the Week

Tulsa (0-0) at Tulane (0-0),  8:00 pm ET, ESPN

Why To Watch: Tulsa begins the 2009 season with an unmistakable feeling of unfinished business. While the Hurricane has amassed 21 wins and more than 1,200 points over the last two seasons, it has also been upset by UCF and East Carolina in the Conference USA title game. The program, with a new quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, is out to prove that it hasn’t lost any of the momentum or firepower that’s helped give it a national identity. Residing on the opposite spectrum of the West Division is Tulane, which has managed just six wins in Bob Toledo’s two seasons at the helm. What better way to kickstart a new year and shake that culture of losing than by shocking one of the league’s elite members in front of the home crowd?
Why Tulsa Might Win: New quarterback? New coordinator? No problem. The Hurricane proved to be a plug-and-play juggernaut a year ago, when David Johnson accounted for 49 touchdowns in his only season as the starting quarterback. Texas transfer G.J. Kinne will wind up being just as prolific, especially when surrounded by a preponderance of skill position talent, like RB Charles Clay and WR Damaris Johnson. Tulane’s troubles on defense will be exacerbated by the suspension of DE Reggie Scott, the team’s best pass rusher and most consistent all-around defender.
Why Tulane Might Win: This a different team when RB Andre Anderson and WR Jeremy Williams are healthy, which was not the case for much of last season. Both players have NFL futures, pending what happens in their senior years. The Tulsa defense, particularly the last line of defense, is sketchy, allowing QB Joe Kemp to get his two stars involved in the offense for all four quarters. As long as the Hurricane is struggling in the red zone and yielding big plays, the Green Wave has enough playmakers to compete in a high-scoring game.
Players To Watch: By winning a heated quarterback competition that began back in the spring, Kinne is poised to go from complete anonymity to a nationally-recognized hurler in under a month. Tulsa’s hurry-up, no-huddle system has had a knack for doing that for its quarterbacks. He didn’t transfer to this program for academic reasons, knowing instead that playing for the Hurricane could be a launching pad for uncommon success, production, and notoriety.
What Will Happen: Tulsa has become a machine on offense. Even when the parts are a little different, the output remains the same. Although Tulane will also make things happen when it has the ball, it won’t be nearly enough to offset a speedy Hurricane team that’ll excel on the fast indoor track at the Superdome. It’ll crank out more than 500 balanced yards, pulling away for good after halftime.
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 44 … Tulane 24 ... Line: Tulsa -14.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2

Appalachian State (0-0) at East Carolina (0-0), ,12:00 pm ET,

Why To Watch: In an underrated battle of recent champions, there’ll be a distinct North Carolina flavor in the Greenville air. A pair of former Southern Conference rivals separated by 270 miles, Appalachian State and East Carolina have not met since 1979. The Mountaineers are one of the premier FCS programs in the country, taking three national championships and four league titles since 2005. Provided a recent lawnmower accident doesn’t hold him back, QB Armanti Edwards, the reigning Walter Payton Award winner, is one of the most dynamic playmakers at any level. After just a few seasons, Skip Holtz has guided the Pirates back to their glory days, when they were one America’s scariest mid-size programs. Last season was the turning point, winning nine games, including signature upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia, en route to a Conference USA championship. East Division favorites once again, the program would like to take another step forward by finishing the season ranked.
Why Appalachian State Might Win: The Mountaineers are a battle-tested program, which has seen it all this decade and certainly won’t flinch about an FBS challenge. Edwards is a one-of-kind athlete behind center, crippling opposing defenses when he starts channeling a young Michael Vick. Yeah, he’s a threat outside the pocket, but he can also pick teams apart with his quick release, especially with the return of top receivers CoCo Hillary, Ben Jorden, and Brian Quick. The pass defense, led by defensive backs Mark LeGree and Cortez Gilbert, is good enough to make the Pirate offense one-dimensional. LeGree was a weekly thief a year ago, picking off a nation’s-best 10 passes.
Why East Carolina Might Win: Appalachian State’s kryptonite is a big, physical line. The Pirates have one on each side of the ball and a decided edge in the trenches. On offense, East Carolina has beef and experience everywhere, led by all-conference candidates Sean Allen, Doug Palmer, and Terence Campbell. It has a substantial advantage on a Mountaineer defense that’s spotty at times and prone to lapses, meaning the backs have room to roam and QB Patrick Pinkney gets time to throw. On defense, the Pirates have one of the deepest lines among the non-BCS schools, featuring future pro DE C.J. Wilson and a terrific rotation of run-stuffers on the inside.
Players To Watch: East Carolina likes to set up the pass with the run, but who is going to be the workhorse? It’s one of the biggest question marks heading into the season for the Pirates. While Norman Whitley was recently reinstated back on the roster, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on sophomore Brandon Jackson. A former top recruit of Kentucky, he’s turned plenty of heads throughout the offseason.
What Will Happen: Purely in terms of competitiveness, this cross-state match up has the potential to be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Of course, all bets are off if Edwards isn’t able to play up to his usual otherworldly standard. It could take all 60 minutes, but East Carolina’s edge in size and experience will eventually tip the scales in its favor. Holtz won’t be bashful about leaning on his 300-pound road graders to keep the Mountaineer offense off the field.
CFN Prediction: East Carolina 31 … Appalachian State 27 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2

Southern Illinois (0-0) at Marshall (0-0) ,4:30 pm ET

Why To Watch: The situation at Marshall? Simple. If head coach Mark Snyder can’t get the Herd to the postseason for the first time in his five years, whatever shred of job security he has left will go up in smoke. The once-mighty mid-major has not had a winning season since 2003, leaving even loyal fans in Huntington disgusted. There’s enough veteran talent on both sides of the ball for a revival, but for a twist, the players must deliver from September to November. The Herd will get a test from Southern Illinois, one of the top teams out of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Salukis went 9-3 a year ago, losing in the opening round of the playoffs.
Why Southern Illinois Might Win: If you can stop Terrell Edwards and the Herd ground game, it’s like putting a spoke in its wheel. Marshall has been inconsistent through the air, will be without suspended star RB Darius Marshall, and needs to find a go-to receiver to complement TE Cody Slate. The Salukis have just such a run D, with the help of all-star linebackers Chauncey Mixon and Brandin Jordan. At quarterback, second-year starter Chris Dieker might give his guys more stability than the team on the other sidelines.
Why Marshall Might Win: The hint of hope around the Herd stems from a defense that could be the best in Snyder’s four seasons as the head coach. All four starters are back on the defensive line, led by DE Albert McClellan, who’s closer to recapturing his pre-injury form than he was in 2008. In total, eight starters return, including all-league candidate Mario Harvey. Although it’s not easy to run on Southern Illinois, Edwards is a veteran back, who’s still capable of churning out 75 yards on the ground.
Players To Watch: When Marshall was Marshall, the program always had outstanding quarterback play from the likes of Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich. That has clearly been missing during these recent lean years. The onus of getting the program back on track at the position now falls on junior Brian Anderson, a former backup, who has surpassed incumbent Mark Cann for the right to start. He played well in the regular season finale versus Tulsa, and has just kept progressing in the offseason.
What Will Happen: While Southern Illinois will make sure this isn’t a pleasure cruise, Marshall has enough talent to avoid the upset at home. The Herd will put its fate in the hands of the running game, which will keep the chains moving, and a defense that believes it’ll be among the best in Conference USA this year. Any hope for bowl eligibility requires games against FCS visitors to go in the win column.
CFN Prediction: Marshall 28 … Southern Illinois 14 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 1

Rice (0-0) at UAB (0-0), 4:00 pm ET

Why To Watch: Is Rice here to stay or was last year’s 10-win season and bowl victory the kinds of things that can be expected once every half-century? The Owls authored a season for the ages in 2008, but many of the key parts from that team, like QB Chase Clement, WR Jarett Dillard, and TE James Casey, are no longer in Houston. The program and David Bailiff are out to prove that there’s life after those three offensive giants. Pull it off, coach, and your agent’s phone will ring off the hook. After two trying seasons and just six wins, Neil Callaway is cautiously optimistic that his UAB program is about to achieve a new level of competitiveness. The Blazers played well down the stretch, going 3-2 and scaring East Carolina, and have a signature player in senior QB Joe Webb.
Why Rice Might Win: Even without the Big 3 on offense, the Owls will still be able to move the ball, especially on a UAB defense that has problems generating a pass rush or holding up at the point of attack. Rice remains content on airing it out with Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi and fifth-year senior John Thomas Shepherd, who’ll split reps and won’t have any shortage of capable pass-catchers. Toren Dixon is the new go-to guy, joining forces with speedy Patrick Randolph and Casey successor Taylor Wardlow. Even though it’s impossible to replace Clement, the Owls are still going to get their points.
Why UAB Might Win: Webb. He’s the one difference-maker in this game, a physical quarterback, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last year and is improving as a passer. He’ll be a tall order for a Rice defense that will continue to be a step behind, even with the return of a lot of familiar faces. Making Webb even more dangerous will be a veteran offensive line and a Frantrell Forrest-led receiving corps that lost no one from a year ago. If Rice starts to click on offense, UAB will be able to stride-for-stride.
Players To Watch: Someone has to play defense here, right? The game actually features a couple of talented defensive ends, with all-star aspirations and a mission to disrupt the other team’s quarterback. Bryant Turner is arguably UAB’s best defensive player, a high-motor guy looking to double last year’s four sacks. Solomon is a terrific all-around athlete, with a high ceiling in his final two seasons on campus.
What Will Happen: Everything lines up for UAB to get off to the fast start it’s desperately seeking. The Blazers are catching Rice in its first game without a handful of key players and have the decided edge at quarterback. While both schools will land punches on offense, Webb will deliver the knockout blow, carrying his team to an important win with three touchdowns and more than 300 yards of total offense.
CFN Prediction: UAB 34 … Rice 28 ... Line: UAB -5.5
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 2

Stephen F. Austin (0-0) at SMU (0-0) ,8:00 pm ET

Why To Watch: In an effort to perform a second miracle in his college coaching career, June Jones used a ton of freshmen on both sides of the ball, basically writing off the 2008 season from a win-loss perspective. The coach and his Mustangs figure to begin reaping the benefits of that strategy as early as this year. The passing game, always the main attraction in the run-and-shoot, welcomes back second-year QB Bo Levi Mitchell and all of his primary receivers. Stephen F. Austin is the Southland Conference’s version of SMU. The Lumberjacks are a pass-happy bunch, but don’t play a whole lot of defense or win many games. They went 4-8 a year ago, losing 67-7 to TCU in their lone game with an FBS opponent.
Why Stephen F. Austin Might Win: It’s no secret that SMU has one of the most pliable defenses in America, especially when the ball is in the air. The Lumberjacks will lean on a familiar mode of transportation, giving the ball to QB Jeremy Moses and telling him to get it into the hands of top receivers Duane Brooks and Contrevious Parks. If, as expected, this game turns into a track meet, Stephen F. Austin has the athletes and the right opponent to keep up.
Why SMU Might Win: Last season was all about learning the new offense and getting comfortable with new teammates and terminology. This season, the Mustangs are better poised to apply what they’ve learned. Mitchell is ready to become Jones’ next star pupil behind center, thanks largely to the return of receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson. A couple of speedy pro prospects, they’ll light up a Lumberjack secondary that doesn’t have the athletes to slow them down. This will be a very different SMU offense than the one that sputtered throughout 2008.
Players To Watch: The offense will get the Mustangs only so far after going 1-11. The defense will need to make strides as well. Hope can be found in a couple of athletic linebackers coming off solid seasons. Youri Yenga is making the move from defensive end, where he had 10.5 tackles for loss, and 6.5 sacks despite being undersized. Pete Fleps had a team-high 106 tackles in his debut as a starter, bringing much-needed stability to the second line of defense.
What Will Happen: This is SMU’s first opportunity to show the rest of Conference USA how much it’s progressed since the end of 2008. Stephen F. Austin provides an ideal opponent for the Mustangs to showcase their growth. Behind the passing of Mitchell and the big-play ability of Robinson and Sanders, they’ll torch the Lumberjacks for 400 yards and a bunch of touchdowns through the air.
CFN Prediction: SMU 51 … Stephen F. Austin 24 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (Mad Men 5 … NYC Prep 1) … 1

- Week 1, Part 2